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Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1.33-kilometer domain model performance for the 2014 warm season (May-September). Verification statistics were computed using the Model Evaluation Tools, which compared the model forecasts to observations. The mean error values were close to 0 and the root mean square error values were less than 1.8 for mean sea-level pressure (millibars), temperature (degrees Kelvin), dewpoint temperature (degrees Kelvin), and wind speed (per millisecond), all very small differences between the forecast and observations considering the normal magnitudes of the parameters. The precipitation forecast verification results showed consistent under-forecasting of the precipitation object size. This could be an artifact of calculating the statistics for each hour rather than for the entire 12-hour period. The AMU will continue to generate verification statistics for the 1.33-kilometer WRF-EMS domain as data become available in future cool and warm seasons. More data will produce more robust statistics and reveal a more accurate assessment of model performance. Once the formal task was complete, the AMU conducted additional work to better understand the wind direction results. The results were stratified diurnally and by wind speed to determine what effects the stratifications would have on the model wind direction verification statistics. The results are summarized in the addendum at the end of this report. In addition to verifying the model's performance, the AMU also made the output available in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II). This allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses. In the future, the AMU will implement an updated version of the WRF-EMS model that incorporates local data assimilation. This model will also run in real-time and be made available in AWIPS II.

Numerical Weather Prediction↗

Atmospheric disturbance modelling requirements for flying qualities applications

Flying qualities are defined as those airplane characteristics which govern the ease or precision with which the pilot can accomplish the mission. Some atmospheric disturbance modelling requirements for aircraft flying qualities applications are reviewed. It is concluded that some simplifications are justified in identifying the primary influence on aircraft response and pilot control. It is recommended that a universal environmental model be developed, which could form the reference for different applications. This model should include the latest information on winds, turbulence, gusts, visibility, icing and precipitation. A chosen model would be kept by a national agency and updated regularly by feedback from users. A user manual is believed to be an essential part of such a model.

Moorhouse, D. J.↗

Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

Gupta, Hoshin V.↗

A New Time-dependent Model for the Martian Radiation Environment

Manned space activities have been until present time limited to the near-Earth environment, most of them to low Earth orbit (LEO) scenarios, with only some of the Apollo missions targeted to the Moon. In current times most human exploration and development of space (HEDS) activities are related to the development of the International Space Station (ISS), and therefore take place in the LEO environment. A natural extension of HEDS activities will be going beyond LEO, and reach asteroids, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, the Kuiper belt and the outskirts of the Solar System. Such long journeys onboard spacecraft outside the protective umbrella of the geomagnetic field will require higher levels of protection from the radiation environment found in the deep space for both astronauts and equipment. So, it is important to have available a tool for radiation shielding which takes into account the radiation environments found all along the interplanetary space and at the different bodies encountered in the Solar System. Moreover, the radiation protection is one of the two NASA highest concerns and priorities. A tool integrating different radiation environments with shielding computation techniques especially tailored for deep space mission scenario is instrumental in view of this exigency. In view of manned missions targeted to Mars, for which radiation exposure is one of the greatest problems and challenges to be tackled, it is of fundamental importance to have available a tool which allows to know which are the particle flux and spectra at any time at any point of the Martian surface. With this goal in mind, a new model for the radiation environment to be found on the planet Mars due to Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) has been developed. Solar modulated primary particles rescaled for Mars conditions are transported within the Martian atmosphere, with temporal properties modeled with variable timescales, down to the surface, with altitude and backscattering patterns taken into account. The tool allows analysis for manned Mars landing missions, as well as planetary science studies, e.g. subsurface water and volatile inventory studies. This Mars environmental model is available through the SIREST website, a project of NASA Langley Research Center.

G De Angelis↗

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

The Revised Space Environment Models in CREME-MC: A Replacement for CREME96

The CREME96 model has been available on the WWW for more than 10 years now. While principally for the estimation of radiation effects on spacecraft electronics, it contains space radiation environment models that have been used for instrument design calculations, estimation of instrumental background, estimation of radiation hazards and many other purposes. Because of the evolution of electronic part design we have found it necessary to revise CREME96, creating CREME-MC. As part of this revision, we are revising and extending the environmental models in CREME96. This talk will describe the revised radiation environment models that are being made available in CREME-MC

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-Time Forecasting and Disaster Response

The use of cloud computing resources continues to grow within the public and private sector components of the weather enterprise as users become more familiar with cloud‐computing concepts, and competition among service providers continues to reduce costs and other barriers to entry. Cloud resources can also provide capabilities similar to high‐performance computing environments, supporting multi‐node systems required for near real‐time, regional weather predictions. Referred to as "Infrastructure as a Service", or IaaS, the use of cloud-based computing hardware in an on‐demand payment system allows for rapid deployment of a modeling system in environments lacking access to a large, supercomputing infrastructure. Use of IaaS capabilities to support regional weather prediction may be of particular interest to developing countries that have not yet established large supercomputing resources, but would otherwise benefit from a regional weather forecasting capability. Recently, collaborators from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center have developed a scripted, on‐demand capability for launching the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center (STRC) Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which includes pre‐compiled binaries of the latest version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF‐EMS provides scripting for downloading appropriate initial and boundary conditions from global models, along with higher‐resolution vegetation, land surface, and sea surface temperature data sets provided by the NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center. This presentation will provide an overview of the modeling system capabilities and benchmarks performed on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) environment. In addition, the presentation will discuss future opportunities to deploy the system in support of weather prediction in developing countries supported by NASA's SERVIR Project, which provides capacity building activities in environmental monitoring and prediction across a growing number of regional hubs throughout the world. Capacity‐building applications that extend numerical weather prediction to developing countries are intended to provide near real‐time applications to benefit public health, safety, and economic interests, but may have a greater impact during disaster events by providing a source for local predictions of weather‐related hazards, or impacts that local weather events may have during the recovery phase.

Molthan, Andrew↗

Verification of the Generalized Aerospace Simulation in Simulink (R)

NASA uses six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) simulations tools to design, test, develop Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C) software, and certify vehicle performance prior to flight. Therefore, it is critical that the 6-DOF tools used for vehicle design and certification are validated. The focus of this work is the vali-dation of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center 6-DOF “GeneraLized Aero-space Simulation in Simulink” (GLASS) framework tool. The GLASS tool framework is currently used to support NASA GN&C insight for the Human Landing System (HLS) project, simulating vehicle dynamics during lunar descent and as-cent. The GLASS framework utilizes the off-the-shelf Mathworks ® Simscape Multibody® toolbox to model vehicle multi-body dynamics. NASA’s Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provides a set of 6-DOF simulation verification “check cases” that are available to any user needing to verify 6-DOF tools. The check cases contain seventeen atmospheric and twenty-six orbital test scenarios are provided to validate equations of motion, environmental models (e.g., atmosphere, gravitation, and geodesy) and tool propagators. This paper compares GLASS 6-DOF simulation results against the NESC check cases’ results via simulation-to-simulation comparisons. The comparisons demonstrate that GLASS simulation results are “in family” with the outputs of the applicable NASA NESC check cases and verifies the GLASS core framework dynamics and the correct implementation of the check case scenario models.

6-Dof↗

Verification of the Generalized Aerospace Simulation in Simulink

NASA uses six-degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) simulations tools to design, test, develop Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C) software, and certify vehicle performance prior to flight. Therefore, it is critical that the 6-DOF tools used for vehicle design and certification are validated. The focus of this work is the validation of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center 6-DOF “GeneraLized Aerospace Simulation in Simulink” (GLASS) framework tool. The GLASS tool framework is currently used to support NASA GN&C insight for the Human Landing System (HLS) project, simulating vehicle dynamics during lunar descent and ascent. The GLASS framework utilizes the off-the-shelf Mathworks (R) Simscape (TM) Multibody (TM) toolbox to model vehicle multi-body dynamics. NASA’s Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provides a set of 6-DOF simulation verification “check cases” that are available to any user needing to verify 6-DOF tools. The check cases contain seventeen atmospheric and twenty-six orbital test scenarios are provided to validate equations of motion, environmental models (e.g., atmosphere, gravitation, and geodesy) and tool propagators. This paper compares GLASS 6-DOF simulation results against the NESC check cases’ results via simulation-to-simulation comparisons. The comparison demonstrates that GLASS simulation results are “in family” with the outputs of the applicable NASA NESC check-cases and verify the GLASS core framework dynamics and the implementation of the check case scenario models.

6-Dof↗

Analysis and Consequences of the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 Collision

The collision of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251, on 10 February 2009, was the first known unintentional hypervelocity collision in space of intact satellites. Iridium 33 was an active commercial telecommunications satellite, while Cosmos 2251 was a derelict communication satellite of the Strela-2M class. The collision occurred at a relative velocity of 11.6 km/s at an altitude of approximately 790 km over the Great Siberian Plain and near the northern apex of Cosmos 2251 s orbit. This paper describes the physical and orbital characteristics of the relevant spacecraft classes and reports upon our analysis of the resulting debris clouds size, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and relative velocity/directionality distributions. We compare these distributions to those predicted by the NASA breakup model and notable recent fragmentation events; in particular, we compare the area-to-mass ratio distribution for each spacecraft to that exhibited by the FY-1C debris cloud for the purpose of assessing the relative contribution of modern aerospace materials to debris clouds resulting from energetic collisions. In addition, we examine the long-term consequences of this event for the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment. Finally, we discuss "lessons learned", which may be incorporated into NASA s environmental models.

Anz-Meador, P. D.↗

Thermal Considerations for 2039 Opposition Class Nuclear Electric Propulsion/Chemical Propulsion Crewed Mars Mission

The high specific impulse (Isp) of Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) technology offers the potential for advanced space mission capabilities. However, the five critical technology elements of NEP vehicles have yet to prove technical maturity levels for consideration into mission design. In response to the critical reviews by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project created an NEP Technology Maturation Plan (TMP) for focused development of NEP technology. The TMP called for a coordinated set of technology development efforts to meet this objective. The Modular Assembled Radiators for NEP VehicLes (MARVL) Early Career Initiative (ECI) project was initiated to develop a portion of the fifth Critical Technology Element (CTE) of the NEP vehicle: the Primary Heat Rejection Subsystem (PHRS). A target application of a 2039 human-rated Mars mission was outlined in the TMP. For the outlined mission, a NEP vehicle will experience several thermal environments which will impact the design and operation of the PHRS. To maintain radiator temperatures within the required effective temperature range, the effect of natural, induced, and NEP internally generated heat loads on the radiator panel must be well understood. Furthermore, this analysis is critical for analyzing the influence of various orientations and positions of the NEP vehicle relative to nearby celestial bodies throughout the mission. This study conducted a complete enveloping analysis of the thermal environments influencing the NEP vehicle throughout the mission. Thermal analysis was conducted for the radiator panels based on the defined mission environments. This thermal analysis concludes with the selection of ideal radiator orientations for the NEP vehicle, and the identification of worst case hot and cold environmental sink temperatures throughout the mission. For the target application, the environmental sink temperature while the reactor is powered OFF or powered ON ranges from 30 K to 353 K and 2.7 K to 243 K respectively. When considering interplanetary space, the minimum environmental sink temperature when the reactor is powered OFF and the radiators are oriented “edge to Sun” is 2.7 K. The environmental thermal models generated in this study will be used for future studies with the full vehicle system model. The environmental sink temperature curves generated will be used for future radiator and component analysis to predict transient performance in the space environment. The environmental sink temperature and heat rejection capability curves will inform the trade between commissioning orbits that are in consideration. The model may also serve as a useful tool as reference for future crewed space missions, missions involving radiators or temperature sensitive equipment, or other missions requiring analysis of natural orbital thermal environments.

Nuclear Electric Propulsion↗

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Wood, Lance↗

Integration of Landsat data into the Saginaw River Basin geographic information system

One of the objectives of the Saginaw River Basin study is related to the development of a computer model to predict flood damages. The computer model is to be operational in June 1985. In order to achieve this objective, the input of land-use data into a data base consisting of 198,000 grid cells will be required. A planning technique using Spatial Analysis Methodology (SAM) was developed by the Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) to systematically handle these data. The HEC-SAM system uses the spatially oriented map data in a series of data management and analysis software programs for input to the Corps hydrologic and environmental models. Attention is given to data base development, Landsat digital data, the placement of the Landsat data into the grid cell data base, and the development of the land cover classification. The Landsat-2 MSS scene covering 85 percent of the Saginaw River Basin was geometrically corrected to a UTM coordinate system.

Mckim, H. L.↗

Airborne Remote Sensing (ARS) for Agricultural Research and Commercialization Applications

Tremendous advances in remote sensing technology and computing power over the last few decades are now providing scientists with the opportunity to investigate, measure, and model environmental patterns and processes with increasing confidence. Such advances are being pursued by the Nebraska Remote Sensing Facility, which consists of approximately 30 faculty members and is very competitive with other institutions in the depth of the work that is accomplished. The development of this facility targeted at applications, commercialization, and education programs in the area of precision agriculture provides a unique opportunity. This critical area is within the scope of NASA goals and objectives of NASA s Applications, Technology Transfer, Commercialization, and Education Division and the Earth Science Enterprise. This innovative integration of Aerospace (Aeronautics) Technology Enterprise applications with other NASA enterprises serves as a model of cross-enterprise transfer of science with specific commercial applications.

Narayanan, Ram↗

Impact of Quikscat Data on Numerical Weather Prediction

One of the important applications of satellite surface wind observations is to increase the accuracy of weather analyses and forecasts. Satellite surface wind data can improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts by contributing to improved analyses of the surface wind field and air sea fluxes. Through the data assimilation process,these data can also improve atmospheric mass and motion fields in the free atmosphere above the surface. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in July 1999 and represented a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) was the first data assimilation center to assimilate QuikScat Seawinds data and evaluate their impact on numerical weather prediction. Following the launch of QuikScat, a detailed evaluation of the initial surface wind data sets was performed as part of a collaborative project between the Environmental Modeling Center of NCEP, NESDIS and the DAO. More recently, the impact of Quikscat data was evaluated in detailed experiments using the NCEP operational data assimilation system. As a result of the beneficial impact obtained, NCEP began operational utilization of Quikscat data. Results from these experiments as well as recent DAO assimilation experiments showing the impact of Quikscat data on stratospheric analyses and forecasts will be presented at the meeting.

Atlas, Robert↗

Analysis and Monitoring of Cyber-Physical Systems via Environmental Domain Knowledge & Modeling

While verifying adherence to a specification (i.e., specification-based testing) is important, the results are only as valid as the specification itself. Problematically, verifying a system specification must be done within the context of changing or even unknown environmental domain knowledge that could render the specification ineffective or incorrect. This issue is even more apparent in the context of self-adaptive systems, where uncertainty in both the system configuration and environment can impact the validity of the system. This paper introduces a method to explicitly model domain knowledge of the environment as a secondary system to enable design-time verification against documented environmental assumptions (i.e., those elements external to the system). In addition, run-time monitors are used to detect scenarios in the actual environment not specified by the modeled environmental domain knowledge. Rather than simply identifying unexpected inputs, our approach is able to identify run-time violations of the environmental domain knowledge, even when inputs appear valid based on the domain assumptions embedded in the system specification. These violations can then be used to correspondingly update the system and environmental specifications via automated run-time adaptation or subsequent design-time revisions. We illustrate our approach by applying our method to a running example of a goal-based model of a baby monitor.

Byron DeVries↗

Brief summary of the evolution of high-temperature creep-fatigue life prediction models for crack initiation

The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940's. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches were identified as being combinations of thirteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made. The need for high-temperature, fatigue-life prediction methods followed immediately on the heels of the development of large, costly, high-technology industrial and aerospace equipment immediately following the second world war. Major advances were made in the design and manufacture of high-temperature, high-pressure boilers and steam turbines, nuclear reactors, high-temperature forming dies, high-performance poppet valves, aeronautical gas turbine engines, reusable rocket engines, etc. These advances could no longer be accomplished simply by trial and error using the 'build-em and bust-em' approach. Development lead times were too great and costs too prohibitive to retain such an approach. Analytic assessments of anticipated performance, cost, and durability were introduced to cut costs and shorten lead times. The analytic tools were quite primitive at first and out of necessity evolved in parallel with hardware development. After forty years more descriptive, more accurate, and more efficient analytic tools are being developed. These include thermal-structural finite element and boundary element analyses, advanced constitutive stress-strain-temperature-time relations, and creep-fatigue-environmental models for crack initiation and propagation. The high-temperature durability methods that have evolved for calculating high-temperature fatigue crack initiation lives of structural engineering materials are addressed. Only a few of the methods were refined to the point of being directly useable in design. Recently, two of the methods were transcribed into computer software for use with personal computers.

Halford, Gary R.↗