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NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Reliability Quantification of Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Components

The Advanced Stirling Convertor, is intended to provide power for an unmanned planetary spacecraft and has an operational life requirement of 17 years. Over this 17 year mission, the ASC must provide power with desired performance and efficiency and require no corrective maintenance. Reliability demonstration testing for the ASC was found to be very limited due to schedule and resource constraints. Reliability demonstration must involve the application of analysis, system and component level testing, and simulation models, taken collectively. Therefore, computer simulation with limited test data verification is a viable approach to assess the reliability of ASC components. This approach is based on physics-of-failure mechanisms and involves the relationship among the design variables based on physics, mechanics, material behavior models, interaction of different components and their respective disciplines such as structures, materials, fluid, thermal, mechanical, electrical, etc. In addition, these models are based on the available test data, which can be updated, and analysis refined as more data and information becomes available. The failure mechanisms and causes of failure are included in the analysis, especially in light of the new information, in order to develop guidelines to improve design reliability and better operating controls to reduce the probability of failure. Quantified reliability assessment based on fundamental physical behavior of components and their relationship with other components has demonstrated itself to be a superior technique to conventional reliability approaches based on utilizing failure rates derived from similar equipment or simply expert judgment.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Impact of solids on composite materials

The failure modes of composite materials as a result of low velocity impact were investigated by simulating the impact with a finite element analysis. An important facet of the project is the modeling of the impact of a solid onto cylindrical shells composed of composite materials. The model under development will simulate the delamination sustained when a composite material encounters impact from another rigid body. The computer equipment was installed, the computer network tested, and a finite element method model was developed to compare results with known experimental data. The model simulated the impact of a steel rod onto a rotating shaft. Pre-processing programs (GMESH and TANVEL) were developed to generate node and element data for the input into the three dimensional, dynamic finite element analysis code (DYNA3D). The finite element mesh was configured with a fine mesh near the impact zone and a coarser mesh for the impacting rod and the regions surrounding the impacting zone. For the computer simulation, five impacting loads were used to determine the time history of the stresses, the scribed surface areas, and the amount of ridging. The processing time of the computer codes amounted from 1 to 4 days. The calculated surface area were within 6-12 percent, relative error when compated to the actual scratch area.

Bronson, Arturo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost and Throughput Analysis for the NASA Ames Arc Jet Modernization Program

NASA Ames Center is currently evaluating alternatives to modernize the Arc Jet Complex, a critical part of testing for NASA’s planetary missions. NASA’s Arc Jet Complex facilities “are used to simulate the aerothermodynamic heating that a spacecraft endures throughout hypersonic atmospheric entry, and to test candidate thermal protection system (TPS) materials and systems. “Because planetary mission schedules often have tight windows due to planetary alignment constraints, a small increase in schedule could result in a two-year delay. Such a delay could increase the cost of a $1billionmissionbyhundreds of millions of dollars due to project personnel pay and clean room storage. To avoid these costs, the authors support NASA Ames in evaluating return on investment (ROI) and effectiveness of alternatives for modernizing the complex. The first input into the ROI is the deconstruction and construction cost estimates, which are developed using independent research on highly specialized subsystems, vendor quotes, and Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC), depending on the facility and work package. One of the measures of effectiveness is throughput analysis of the test bays, as a main goal of the modernization is to increase the number of possible test runs per year. This analysis is conducted via a probabilistic simulation and accounts for a variety of stochastic factors that influence the sequence of test runs, such as the facility availability; test complexity; the need to pause to assess test results; test failure; and the possibility of a system failure. The methodologies for both these analyses are discussed, along with the challenges presented due to the unique nature of the highly specialized test equipment.

Jennifer Scheel↗

NASA NTRS1948

Performance of Compressor of XJ-41-V Turbojet Engine II - Static-Pressure Ratios and Limitation of Maximum Flow at Equivalent Compressor Speed of 8000 rpm

At the request of the Air Material Command, Army Air Forces, an investigation was conducted by the NACA Cleveland laboratory to determine the performance characteristics of the compressor of the XJ-41-V turbojet engine. This report is the second in a series presenting the compressor performance and analysis of flow conditions in the compressor. The static-pressure variation in the direction of flow through the compressor and the location and the cause of the maximum flow restriction at an equivalent speed of 8000 rpm are presented. After the initial runs were reported, the leading edges of the impeller blades and the diffuser surfaces were found to have been roughened by steel particles from a minor failure of auxiliary equipment. The leading edges of the impeller blades were refinished and all high spots resulting from scratches in the diffuser and the accessible parts of the vaned collector passages were removed. The initial overall performance and that obtained with the refinished blades are presented.

Dildine, Dean M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Accelerometer method and apparatus for integral display and control functions

Vibration analysis has been used for years to provide a determination of the proper functioning of different types of machinery, including rotating machinery and rocket engines. A determination of a malfunction, if detected at a relatively early stage in its development, will allow changes in operating mode or a sequenced shutdown of the machinery prior to a total failure. Such preventative measures result in less extensive and/or less expensive repairs, and can also prevent a sometimes catastrophic failure of equipment. Standard vibration analyzers are generally rather complex, expensive, and of limited portability. They also usually result in displays and controls being located remotely from the machinery being monitored. Consequently, a need exists for improvements in accelerometer electronic display and control functions which are more suitable for operation directly on machines and which are not so expensive and complex. The invention includes methods and apparatus for detecting mechanical vibrations and outputting a signal in response thereto. The apparatus includes an accelerometer package having integral display and control functions. The accelerometer package is suitable for mounting upon the machinery to be monitored. Display circuitry provides signals to a bar graph display which may be used to monitor machine condition over a period of time. Control switches may be set which correspond to elements in the bar graph to provide an alert if vibration signals increase over the selected trip point. The circuitry is shock mounted within the accelerometer housing. The method provides for outputting a broadband analog accelerometer signal, integrating this signal to produce a velocity signal, integrating and calibrating the velocity signal before application to a display driver, and selecting a trip point at which a digitally compatible output signal is generated. The benefits of a vibration recording and monitoring system with controls and displays readily mountable on the machinery being monitored and having capabilities described will be appreciated by those working in the art.

Bozeman, Richard J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

Johnson, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors↗

NASA NTRS1974

Design and fabrication of prototype system for early warning of impending bearing failure

A test program was conducted with the objective of developing a method and equipment for on-line monitoring of installed ball bearings to detect deterioration or impending failure of the bearings. The program was directed at the spin-axis bearings of a control moment gyro. The bearings were tested at speeds of 6000 and 8000 rpm, thrust loads from 50 to 1000 pounds, with a wide range of lubrication conditions, with and without a simulated fatigue spall implanted in the inner race ball track. It was concluded that a bearing monitor system based on detection and analysis of modulations of a fault indicating bearing resonance frequency can provide a low threshold of sensitivity.

Meacher, J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Manned systems utilization analysis (study 2.1). Volume 5: Program listing for the LOVES computer code

The LOVES computer code developed to investigate the concept of space servicing operational satellites as an alternative to replacing expendable satellites or returning satellites to earth for ground refurbishment is presented. In addition to having the capability to simulate the expendable satellite operation and the ground refurbished satellite operation, the program is designed to simulate the logistics of space servicing satellites using an upper stage vehicle and/or the earth to orbit shuttle. The program not only provides for the initial deployment of the satellite but also simulates the random failure and subsequent replacement of various equipment modules comprising the satellite. The program has been used primarily to conduct trade studies and/or parametric studies of various space program operational philosophies.

Wray, S. T., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Preliminary Recommendations for the Collection, Storage, and Analysis of UAS Safety Data

Although the use of UASs in military and public service operations is proliferating, civilian use of UASs remains limited in the United States today. With efforts underway to accommodate and integrate UASs into the NAS, a proactive understanding of safety issues, i.e., the unique hazards and the corresponding risks that UASs pose not only through their operations for commercial purposes, but also to existing operations in the NAS, is especially important so as to (a) support the development of a sound regulatory basis, (b) regulate, design and properly equip UASs, and (c) effectively mitigate the risks posed. Data, especially about system and component failures, incidents, and accidents, provides valuable insight into how performance and operational capabilities/limitations contribute to hazards. Since the majority of UAS operations today take place in a context that is significantly different from the norm in civil aviation, i.e., with different operational goals and standards, identifying that which constitutes useful and sufficient data on UASs and their operations is a substantial research challenge.

Safety Data↗

NASA NTRS2016

Topic Modeling of NASA Space System Problem Reports: Research in Practice

Problem reports at NASA are similar to bug reports: they capture defects found during test, post-launch operational anomalies, and document the investigation and corrective action of the issue. These artifacts are a rich source of lessons learned for NASA, but are expensive to analyze since problem reports are comprised primarily of natural language text. We apply topic modeling to a corpus of NASA problem reports to extract trends in testing and operational failures. We collected 16,669 problem reports from six NASA space flight missions and applied Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modeling to the document corpus. We analyze the most popular topics within and across missions, and how popular topics changed over the lifetime of a mission. We find that hardware material and flight software issues are common during the integration and testing phase, while ground station software and equipment issues are more common during the operations phase. We identify a number of challenges in topic modeling for trend analysis: 1) that the process of selecting the topic modeling parameters lacks definitive guidance, 2) defining semantically-meaningful topic labels requires nontrivial effort and domain expertise, 3) topic models derived from the combined corpus of the six missions were biased toward the larger missions, and 4) topics must be semantically distinct as well as cohesive to be useful. Nonetheless,topic modeling can identify problem themes within missions and across mission lifetimes, providing useful feedback to engineers and project managers.

Data Mining↗

NASA NTRS1978

Performance and economic risk evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power systems by Monte Carlo simulation

A preliminary comparative evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power plants utilizing advanced technologies available in 1985-2000 time frame is under way at JPL. The solar power plants of 50 KWe to 10 MWe size are equipped with two axis tracking parabolic dish concentrator systems operating at temperatures in excess of 1000 F. The energy conversion schemes under consideration include advanced steam, open and closed cycle gas turbines, stirling, and combined cycle. The energy storage systems include advanced batteries, liquid metal, and chemical. This paper outlines a simple methodology for a probabilistic assessment of such systems. Sources of uncertainty in the development of advanced systems are identified, and a computer Monte Carlo simulation is exercised to permit an analysis of the tradeoffs of the risk of failure versus the potential for large gains. Frequency distribution of energy cost for several alternatives are presented.

Manvi, R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Design of Test Support Hardware for Advanced Space Suits

As a member of the Space Suit Assembly Development Engineering Team, I designed and built test equipment systems to support the development of the next generation of advanced space suits. During space suit testing it is critical to supply the subject with two functions: (1) cooling to remove metabolic heat, and (2) breathing air to pressurize the space suit. The objective of my first project was to design, build, and certify an improved Space Suit Cooling System for manned testing in a 1‐G environment. This design had to be portable and supply a minimum cooling rate of 2500 BTU/hr. The Space Suit Cooling System is a robust, portable system that supports very high metabolic rates. It has a highly adjustable cool rate and is equipped with digital instrumentation to monitor the flowrate and critical temperatures. It can supply a variable water temperature down to 34 deg., and it can generate a maximum water flowrate of 2.5 LPM. My next project was to design and build a Breathing Air System that was capable of supply facility air to subjects wearing the Z‐2 space suit. The system intakes 150 PSIG breathing air and regulates it to two operating pressures: 4.3 and 8.3 PSIG. It can also provide structural capabilities at 1.5x operating pressure: 6.6 and 13.2 PSIG, respectively. It has instrumentation to monitor flowrate, as well as inlet and outlet pressures. The system has a series of relief valves to fully protect itself in case of regulator failure. Both projects followed a similar design methodology. The first task was to perform research on existing concepts to develop a sufficient background knowledge. Then mathematical models were developed to size components and simulate system performance. Next, mechanical and electrical schematics were generated and presented at Design Reviews. After the systems were approved by the suit team, all the hardware components were specified and procured. The systems were then packaged, fabricated, and thoroughly tested. The next step was to certify the equipment for manned used, which included generating a Hazard Analysis and giving a presentation to the Test Readiness Review Board. Both of these test support systems will perform critical roles in the development of next‐generation space suits. They will used on a regular basis to test the NASA's new Z‐2 Space Suit. The Space Suit Cooling System is now the primary cooling system for all advanced suit tests.

Watters, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Full-field Strain Methods for Investigating Failure Mechanisms in Triaxial Braided Composites

Composite materials made with triaxial braid architecture and large tow size carbon fibers are beginning to be used in many applications, including composite aircraft and engine structures. Recent advancements in braiding technology have led to commercially viable manufacturing approaches for making large structures with complex shape. Although the large unit cell size of these materials is an advantage for manufacturing efficiency, the fiber architecture presents some challenges for materials characterization, design, and analysis. In some cases, the static load capability of structures made using these materials has been higher than expected based on material strength properties measured using standard coupon tests. A potential problem with using standard tests methods for these materials is that the unit cell size can be an unacceptably large fraction of the specimen dimensions. More detailed investigation of deformation and failure processes in large unit cell size triaxial braid composites is needed to evaluate the applicability of standard test methods for these materials and to develop alternative testing approaches. In recent years, commercial equipment has become available that enables digital image correlation to be used on a more routine basis for investigation of full field 3D deformation in materials and structures. In this paper, some new techniques that have been developed to investigate local deformation and failure using digital image correlation techniques are presented. The methods were used to measure both local and global strains during standard straight-sided coupon tensile tests on composite materials made with 12 and 24 k yarns and a 0/+60/-60 triaxial braid architecture. Local deformation and failure within fiber bundles was observed, and this local failure had a significant effect on global stiffness and strength. The matrix material had a large effect on local damage initiation for the two matrix materials used in this investigation. Premature failure in regions of the unit cell near the edge of the straight-sided specimens was observed for transverse tensile tests in which the braid axial fibers were perpendicular to the specimen axis and the bias fibers terminated on the cut edges in the specimen gage section. This edge effect is one factor that could contribute to a measured strength that is lower than the actual material strength in a structure without edge effects.

Littell, Justin D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

An Active Smart Material Control System for F/A-18 Buffet Alleviation

The vertical tail buffet problem of fighter aircraft occurs at high angles of attack when the vortical flow breaks down ahead of the vertical tails resulting in unsteady and unbalanced pressure loads on the vertical tails. The buffet loads imposed upon the vertical tails resulted in a premature fatigue failure of the tails, and consequently limits the performance and super maneuverability of twin-tail fighter aircraft. An active smart material control system using distributed piezoelectric actuators has been developed for buffet alleviation and is presented. The inboard and outboard surfaces of the vertical tail are equipped with piezoelectric actuators to control the buffet responses in the first bending and torsion modes. The electrodynamics of the piezoelectric actuators are expressed with a three-dimensional finite-element model. A single-input-single-output controller is designed to drive the active piezoelectric actuators. High-fidelity multidisciplinary analysis modules for the fluid dynamics, structure dynamics, electrodynamics of the piezoelectric actuators, control law, fluid structure interfacing, and grid motion are integrated into a multidisciplinary computing environment that controls the temporal synchronization of the analysis modules. At 30 degree angle of attack, RMS values of tip acceleration are reduced by as much as 12%. The peak values of the power spectral density of tail-tip acceleration are reduced by as much as 22% in the first bending mode and by as much as 82% in the first torsion mode. The actively controlled piezoelectric actuators were also effective in adding damping at wide range of angles of attack.

Sheta, Essam F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Operational considerations in monitoring oxygen levels at the National Transonic Facility

Laboratory monitoring of the level of oxygen in sample gas mixtures is a process which can be performed with accurate and repeatable results. Operations at the National Transonic Facility require the storage and pumping of large volumes of liquid nitrogen. To protect against the possibility of a fault resulting in a localized oxygen deficient atmosphere, the facility is equipped with a monitoring system with an array of sensors. During the early operational stages, the system produced recurrent alarms, none of which could be traced to a true oxygen deficiency. A thorough analysis of the system was undertaken with primary emphasis placed on the sensor units. These units sense the partial pressure of oxygen which, after signal conditioning, is presented as a % by volume indication at the system output. It was determined that many of the problems experienced were due to a lack of proper accounting for the partial pressure/% by volume relationship, with a secondary cause being premature sensor failure. Procedures were established to consider atmospherically induced partial pressure variations. Sensor rebuilding techniques were examined, and those elements contributing to premature sensor failure were identified. The system now operates with a high degree of confidence and reliability.

Zalenski, M. A.↗