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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1978

Optimal estimation for discrete time jump processes

Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are derived. The approach used is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. Thus a general representation is obtained for optimum estimates, and recursive equations are derived for minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimates. In general, MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem is considered of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a beta probability density function and the jump amplitudes are binomially distributed. It is shown that the MMSE estimates are linear. The class of beta density functions is rather rich and explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.

Vaca, M. V.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Comparison of mode estimation methods and application in molecular clock analysis

BACKGROUND: Distributions of time estimates in molecular clock studies are sometimes skewed or contain outliers. In those cases, the mode is a better estimator of the overall time of divergence than the mean or median. However, different methods are available for estimating the mode. We compared these methods in simulations to determine their strengths and weaknesses and further assessed their performance when applied to real data sets from a molecular clock study. RESULTS: We found that the half-range mode and robust parametric mode methods have a lower bias than other mode methods under a diversity of conditions. However, the half-range mode suffers from a relatively high variance and the robust parametric mode is more susceptible to bias by outliers. We determined that bootstrapping reduces the variance of both mode estimators. Application of the different methods to real data sets yielded results that were concordant with the simulations. CONCLUSION: Because the half-range mode is a simple and fast method, and produced less bias overall in our simulations, we recommend the bootstrapped version of it as a general-purpose mode estimator and suggest a bootstrap method for obtaining the standard error and 95% confidence interval of the mode.

Evolution, Molecular↗
NASA NTRS2006

Extremely Accurate On-Orbit Position Accuracy using TDRSS

NASA is planning to launch a new service for Earth satellites providing them with precise GPS differential corrections and other ancillary information enabling decimeter level orbit determination accuracy and nanosecond time-transfer accuracy, onboard, in real-time. The TDRSS Augmentation Service for Satellites (TASS) will broadcast its message on the S-band multiple access forward channel of NASA s Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The satellite's phase array antenna has been configured to provide a wide beam, extending coverage up to 1000 km altitude over the poles. Global coverage will be ensured with broadcast from three or more TDRSS satellites. The GPS differential corrections are provided by the NASA Global Differential GPS (GDGPS) System, developed and operated by JPL. The GDGPS System employs global ground network of more than 70 GPS receivers to monitor the GPS constellation in real time. The system provides real-time estimates of the GPS satellite states, as well as many other real-time products such as differential corrections, global ionospheric maps, and integrity monitoring. The unique multiply redundant architecture of the GDGPS System ensures very high reliability, with 99.999% demonstrated since the inception of the system in early 2000. The estimated real time GPS orbit and clock states provided by the GDGPS system are accurate to better than 20 cm 3D RMS, and have been demonstrated to support sub-decimeter real time positioning and orbit determination for a variety of terrestrial, airborne, and spaceborne applications. In addition to the GPS differential corrections, TASS will provide real-time Earth orientation and solar flux information that enable precise onboard knowledge of the Earth-fixed position of the spacecraft, and precise orbit prediction and planning capabilities. TASS will also provide 5 seconds alarms for GPS integrity failures based on the unique GPS integrity monitoring service of the GDGPS System.

Stocklin, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2004

NASA's global differential GPS system and the TDRSS augmentation service for satellites

NASA is planning to launch a new service for Earth satellites providing them with precise GPS differential corrections and other ancillary information enabling decimeter level orbit determination accuracy, and nanosecond time-transfer accuracy, onboard, in real-time. The TDRSS Augmentation Service for Satellites (TASS) will broadcast its message on the S-band multiple access channel of NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The satellite's phase array antenna has been configured to provide a wide beam, extending coverage up to 1000 km altitude over the poles. Global coverage will be ensured with broadcast from three or more TDRSS satellites. The GPS differential corrections are provided by the NASA Global Differential GPS (GDGPS) System, developed and operated by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The GDGPS System employs a global ground network of more than 70 GPS receivers to monitor the GPS constellation in real time. The system provides real-time estimates of the GPS satellite states, as well as many other real-time products such as differential corrections, global ionospheric maps, and integrity monitoring. The unique multiply redundant architecture of the GDGPS System ensures very high reliability, with 99.999% demonstrated since the inception of the system in Early 2000. The estimated real time GPS orbit and clock states provided by the GDGPS system are accurate to better than 20 cm 3D RMS, and have been demonstrated to support sub-decimeter real time positioning and orbit determination for a variety of terrestrial, airborne, and spaceborne applications. In addition to the GPS differential corrections, TASS will provide real-time Earth orientation and solar flux information that enable precise onboard knowledge of the Earth-fixed position of the spacecraft, and precise orbit prediction and planning capabilities. TASS will also provide 5 seconds alarms for GPS integrity failures based on the unique GPS integrity monitoring service of the GDGPS System.

Global Postitioning Satellite (GPS)↗
NASA NTRS1972

Nonlinear and adaptive estimation in reentry.

The problem of real-time estimation of a lifting reentry vehicle trajectory of the shuttle orbiter type is considered. Simulations feature large position and velocity uncertainties at radar acquisition and realistic model errors in lift, drag and other model parameters. Radar tracking and accelerometer data are simulated. Significant nonlinearities are found to exist on spacecraft acquisition. An iterated nonlinear filter is shown to perform optimally during the radar acquisition phase. An adaptive filter is shown to track time-varying model errors, such as errors in the lift and drag coefficients, down to the noise level. Such real-time model tracking (identification) is frequently required for guidance and control implementation.

Jazwinski, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Precipitation Estimates for Hydroelectricity

Hydroelectric plants require precise and timely estimates of rain, snow and other hydrometeors for operations. However, it is far from being a trivial task to measure and predict precipitation. This paper presents the linkages between precipitation science and hydroelectricity, and in doing so it provides insight into current research directions that are relevant for this renewable energy. Methods described include radars, disdrometers, satellites and numerical models. Two recent advances that have the potential of being highly beneficial for hydropower operations are featured: the Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) mission, which represents an important leap forward in precipitation observations from space, and high performance computing (HPC) and grid technology, that allows building ensembles of numerical weather and climate models.

Tapiador, Francisco J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Advancements in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 database – automated near-real-time quality control algorithm with improved cloud screening for Sun photometer aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) has provided highly accurate, ground-truth measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) using Cimel Electronique Sun–sky radiometers for more than 25 years. In Version 2 (V2) of the AERONET database, the near-real-time AOD was semiautomatically quality controlled utilizing mainly cloud-screening methodology, while additional AOD data contaminated by clouds or affected by instrument anomalies were removed manually before attaining quality-assured status (Level 2.0). The large growth in the number of AERONET sites over the past 25 years resulted in significant burden to the manual quality control of millions of measurements in a consistent manner. The AERONET Version 3 (V3) algorithm provides fully automatic cloud screening and instrument anomaly quality controls. All of these new algorithm updates apply to near-real-time data as well as post-field-deployment processed data, and AERONET reprocessed the database in 2018. A full algorithm redevelopment provided the opportunity to improve data inputs and corrections such as unique filter-specific temperature characterizations for all visible and near-infrared wavelengths, updated gaseous and water vapor absorption coefficients, and ancillary data sets. The Level 2.0 AOD quality-assured data set is now available within a month after post-field calibration, reducing the lag time from up to several months. Near-real-time estimated uncertainty is determined using data qualified as V3 Level 2.0 AOD and considering the difference between the AOD computed with the pre-field calibration and AOD computed with pre-field and post-field calibration. This assessment provides a near-real-time uncertainty estimate for which average differences of AOD suggest a +0.02 bias and one sigma uncertainty of 0.02, spectrally, but the bias and uncertainty can be significantly larger for specific instrument deployments. Long-term monthly averages analyzed for the entire V3 and V2 databases produced average differences (V3–V2) of +0.002 with a ±0.02 SD (standard deviation), yet monthly averages calculated using time-matched observations in both databases were analyzed to compute an average difference of −0.002 with a ±0.004 SD. The high statistical agreement in multiyear monthly averaged AOD validates the advanced automatic data quality control algorithms and suggests that migrating research to the V3 database will corroborate most V2 research conclusions and likely lead to more accurate results in some cases.

David M. Giles↗
NASA NTRS2016

Maximum Likelihood Synchronization for Pulse Position Modulation with Inter-Symbol Guard Times

Deep space optical communications promises orders-of-magnitude growth in communication capacity, supporting high data rate applications such as video streaming and high-bandwidth science instruments. Pulse position modulation is the modulation format of choice for deep space applications, and by inserting inter-symbol guard times between the symbols, the signal carries the timing information needed by the demodulator. Accurately extracting this timing information is crucial to demodulating and decoding this signal. In this paper we propose a low complexity maximum likelihood timing estimator for pulse position modulation with inter-symbol guard times which significantly outperforms the prior art in this domain. We show that this estimator can achieve the same performance as prior estimators with an order-of-magnitude less signal flux, or multiple orders-of-magnitude less flux-accumulation time. Further we show that this estimator achieves the Cramer-Rao bound, making it asymptotically efficient. This method does not require an explicit synchronization sequence, freeing up channel resources for data transmission.

Rogalin, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimation of Time-Varying Pilot Model Parameters

Human control behavior is rarely completely stationary over time due to fatigue or loss of attention. In addition, there are many control tasks for which human operators need to adapt their control strategy to vehicle dynamics that vary in time. In previous studies on the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior wavelets were used to estimate the time-varying frequency response functions. However, the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters was not considered. Estimating these parameters can be a valuable tool for the quantification of different aspects of human time-varying manual control. This paper presents two methods for the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters, a two-step method using wavelets and a windowed maximum likelihood estimation method. The methods are evaluated using simulations of a closed-loop control task with time-varying pilot equalization and vehicle dynamics. Simulations are performed with and without remnant. Both methods give accurate results when no pilot remnant is present. The wavelet transform is very sensitive to measurement noise, resulting in inaccurate parameter estimates when considerable pilot remnant is present. Maximum likelihood estimation is less sensitive to pilot remnant, but cannot detect fast changes in pilot control behavior.

Zaal, Peter M. T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Excitations for Rapidly Estimating Flight-Control Parameters

A flight test on an F-15 airplane was performed to evaluate the utility of prescribed simultaneous independent surface excitations (PreSISE) for real-time estimation of flight-control parameters, including stability and control derivatives. The ability to extract these derivatives in nearly real time is needed to support flight demonstration of intelligent flight-control system (IFCS) concepts under development at NASA, in academia, and in industry. Traditionally, flight maneuvers have been designed and executed to obtain estimates of stability and control derivatives by use of a post-flight analysis technique. For an IFCS, it is required to be able to modify control laws in real time for an aircraft that has been damaged in flight (because of combat, weather, or a system failure). The flight test included PreSISE maneuvers, during which all desired control surfaces are excited simultaneously, but at different frequencies, resulting in aircraft motions about all coordinate axes. The objectives of the test were to obtain data for post-flight analysis and to perform the analysis to determine: 1) The accuracy of derivatives estimated by use of PreSISE, 2) The required durations of PreSISE inputs, and 3) The minimum required magnitudes of PreSISE inputs. The PreSISE inputs in the flight test consisted of stacked sine-wave excitations at various frequencies, including symmetric and differential excitations of canard and stabilator control surfaces and excitations of aileron and rudder control surfaces of a highly modified F-15 airplane. Small, medium, and large excitations were tested in 15-second maneuvers at subsonic, transonic, and supersonic speeds. Typical excitations are shown in Figure 1. Flight-test data were analyzed by use of pEst, which is an industry-standard output-error technique developed by Dryden Flight Research Center. Data were also analyzed by use of Fourier-transform regression (FTR), which was developed for onboard, real-time estimation of the derivatives.

Moes, Tim↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the Potential of A Global Precipitation Forecast to Inform Landslide Prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infra-structure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗
NASA NTRS2006

Estimation of Stability and Control Derivatives of an F-15

A technique for real-time estimation of stability and control derivatives (derivatives of moment coefficients with respect to control-surface deflection angles) was used to support a flight demonstration of a concept of an indirect-adaptive intelligent flight control system (IFCS). Traditionally, parameter identification, including estimation of stability and control derivatives, is done post-flight. However, for the indirect-adaptive IFCS concept, parameter identification is required during flight so that the system can modify control laws for a damaged aircraft. The flight demonstration was carried out on a highly modified F-15 airplane (see Figure 1). The main objective was to estimate the stability and control derivatives of the airplane in nearly real time. A secondary goal was to develop a system to automatically assess the quality of the results, so as to be able to tell a learning neural network which data to use. Parameter estimation was performed by use of Fourier-transform regression (FTR) a technique developed at NASA Langley Research Center. FTR is an equation- error technique that operates in the frequency domain. Data are put into the frequency domain by use of a recursive Fourier transform for a discrete frequency set. This calculation simplifies many subsequent calculations, removes biases, and automatically filters out data beyond the chosen frequency range. FTR as applied here was tailored to work with pilot inputs, which produce correlated surface positions that prevent accurate parameter estimates, by replacing half the derivatives with predicted values. FTR was also set up to work only on a recent window of data, to accommodate changes in flight condition. A system of confidence measures was developed to identify quality-parameter estimates that a learning neural network could use. This system judged the estimates primarily on the basis of their estimated variances and of the level of aircraft response. The resulting FTR system was implemented in the Simulink software system and auto-coded in the C programming language for use on the Airborne Research Test System (ARTS II) computer installed in the F-15 airplane. The Simulink model was also used in a control room that utilizes the Ring Buffered Network Bus hardware and software, making it possible to evaluate test points during flights. In-flight parameter estimation was done for piloted and automated maneuvers, primarily at three test conditions. Figure 2 shows results for pitching moment due to symmetric stabilator actuations for a series of three pitch doublet maneuvers (in a doublet maneuver, a command to change attitude in a given direction by a given amount is followed immediately by a command to change attitude in the opposite direction by the same amount). A time window of 5 seconds was used. The portions of the curves shown in red are those that passed the confidence tests. The technique showed good convergence for most derivatives for both kinds of maneuvers - typically within a few seconds. The confidence tests were marginally successful, and it would be necessary to refine them for use in an IFCS.

Smith, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1989

Stochastic estimation of coherent structures in turbulent boundary layers

The stochastic estimation provides a means of estimating conditional averages from unconditional statistics, namely, the two-point correlation tensor. This technique is applied to three-dimensional data obtained in a fully turbulent boundary layer. The results of linear and nonlinear estimates are compared to the corresponding conditional averages and the agreement is found to be excellent, with little improvement for nonlinear estimates. Extensions of the technique to space-time estimates of one- and two-point conditional averages are also presented, the latter providing a means to examine structures associated with a given length scale.

Guezennec, Y. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Intelligent assistance in scientific data preparation

Scientific data preparation is the process of extracting usable scientific data from raw instrument data. This task involves noise detection (and subsequent noise classification and flagging or removal), extracting data from compressed forms, and construction of derivative or aggregate data (e.g. spectral densities or running averages). A software system called PIPE provides intelligent assistance to users developing scientific data preparation plans using a programming language called Master Plumber. PIPE provides this assistance capability by using a process description to create a dependency model of the scientific data preparation plan. This dependency model can then be used to verify syntactic and semantic constraints on processing steps to perform limited plan validation. PIPE also provides capabilities for using this model to assist in debugging faulty data preparation plans. In this case, the process model is used to focus the developer's attention upon those processing steps and data elements that were used in computing the faulty output values. Finally, the dependency model of a plan can be used to perform plan optimization and run time estimation. These capabilities allow scientists to spend less time developing data preparation procedures and more time on scientific analysis tasks.

Chien, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2022

Real-time rapid leakage estimation for deep space habitats using exponentially-weighted adaptively-refined search

The recent accelerated growth in space-related research and development activities makes the near-term need for long-term extraterrestrial habitats evident. Such habitats must operate under continuous disruptive conditions arising from extreme environments like meteoroid impacts, extreme temperature fluctuations, galactic cosmic rays, destructive dust, and seismic events. Loss of air or atmospheric leakage from a habitat poses safety challenges that demand proper attention. Such leakage may arise from micro-meteoroid impacts, crack growth, bolt/rivet loosening, and seal deterioration. In this paper, leakage estimation in deep space habitats is posed as an inverse problem. A forward pressure-based dynamical model is formulated for atmospheric leakage. Experiments are performed on a small-scaled pressure chamber where different leakage scenarios are emulated and corresponding pressure values are measured. An exponentially-weighted adaptively-refined search (EWARS) algorithm is developed and validated for the inverse problem of real-time leakage estimation. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology can achieve real-time estimation and tracking of constant and variable leaks with accuracy.

Deep space habitats↗
NASA NTRS1986

Pattern recognition of satellite cloud imagery for improved weather prediction

The major accomplishment was the successful development of a method for extracting time derivative information from geostationary meteorological satellite imagery. This research is a proof-of-concept study which demonstrates the feasibility of using pattern recognition techniques and a statistical cloud classification method to estimate time rate of change of large-scale meteorological fields from remote sensing data. The cloud classification methodology is based on typical shape function analysis of parameter sets characterizing the cloud fields. The three specific technical objectives, all of which were successfully achieved, are as follows: develop and test a cloud classification technique based on pattern recognition methods, suitable for the analysis of visible and infrared geostationary satellite VISSR imagery; develop and test a methodology for intercomparing successive images using the cloud classification technique, so as to obtain estimates of the time rate of change of meteorological fields; and implement this technique in a testbed system incorporating an interactive graphics terminal to determine the feasibility of extracting time derivative information suitable for comparison with numerical weather prediction products.

Gautier, Catherine↗