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At least 109 records · Page 6

A note on the reliability of goal-oriented error estimates for Galerkin finite element methods with nonlinear functionals

Here, we consider estimating the discretization error in a nonlinear functional J (u) in the setting of an abstract variational problem: find u ϵ $\mathscr{V}$ such that B (u, φ) = L (φ) ∀φ ϵ $\mathscr{V}$, as approximated by a Galerkin finite element method. Here, $\mathscr{V}$ is a Hilbert space, B (. , .) is a bilinear form, and L (∙) is a linear functional. We consider well-known error estimates η of the form J (u) - J (u h ) ≈ η = L (z) - B (u h , z), where u h denotes a finite element approximation to u, and z denotes the solution to an auxiliary adjoint variational problem. We show that there exist nonlinear functionals for which error estimates of this form are not reliable, even in the presence of an exact adjoint solution z. An estimate η is said to be reliable if there exists a constant C ϵ $\mathbb{R}$ >0 independent of u h such that |J (u) - J (u h )| ≤ C|η|. We present several example pairs of bilinear forms and nonlinear functionals where reliability of η is not achieved.

A posteriori↗

On MCNP Stochastic Volume Estimation Normalization

This paper resolves a perennial point of confusion regarding the source-weighting normalization factor recommended in the MCNP manual (𝜋⁢𝑟 2 ) to stochastically estimate the volume of a region within an enclosing inward-directed spherical surface source with radius 𝑟. The normalization factor arises from the relationship between a sphere’ s mean chord length, its volume, and the values estimated by MCNP track-length tallies. A brief derivation is given that relates these quantities and results in the stated normalization. The correctness of this factor is demonstrated by estimating the volume of a variety of convex and nonconvex volumes. A heuristic demonstration of how biasing the inward-directed source reduces the statistical uncertainty of the stochastic volume estimate is also given, but a rigorous analysis of this improvement is left as future work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adaptive Linear State Estimation for Unbalanced Distribution System

The inclusion of PMU functionality in distribution relays enables the implementation of a linear state estimator (LSE) in Distribution Systems (DS). However, the unbalanced topology and phase coupling in distribution lines necessitate modifications to the LSE formulation. Additionally, the higher fault frequency in distribution systems requires a state estimation approach that is resilient to contingencies. This work proposes an adaptive linear state estimation algorithm tailored for unbalanced distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase laterals. Furthermore, a modified Optimal PMU Placement (OPP) strategy is introduced to ensure full observability in distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase buses. To maintain adaptability to topology changes, the state estimator incorporates circuit breaker status data provided by PMUs, ensuring robust performance during topology changes triggered by faults. The performance of the algorithm is verified on the IEEE 13-bus, 34-bus, and 123-bus systems.

PMUs↗

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Secure State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements for Coordinated Cyber Attack Detection in Active Distribution Systems

Coordinated cyber attacks tamper with measurement data to disrupt the situational awareness of active distribution systems. Various sensors report measurements asynchronously at different rates, which introduces challenges during state estimation. In addition, this forces cyber intruders to exert greater effort to compromise multiple communication channels and launch coordinated attacks. Therefore, multi-channel and asynchronous measurements could be harnessed to develop more secure cyber defense strategies. In this paper, a prediction-correction-based multi-rate observer is designed to exploit the value of asynchronous measurements for the detection of coordinated false data injection (FDI) attacks. First, a time-function-dependent prediction-correction strategy is proposed to adjust the sampling interval for each sensor’s measurement. Then, an observer is designed based on the trade-off between estimation error and the optimal period of the most recent sampling instant, with the convergence of estimation error with the maximum permitted sampling interval. Moreover, the conditions for exponential stability are developed using the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional technique. Next, a coordinated FDI attack detection strategy is developed based on the dual nonlinear minimization problem. The proposed attack detection and secure state estimation strategies are tested on the IEEE 13-node system. Simulation results show that these schemes are effective in enhancing attack detection based on asynchronous measurements or compromised data.

asynchronous measurements↗

Deep nonparametric estimation of operators between infinite dimensional spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating the Benefits of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Usage at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Ultrafine Particle Exposure and Mortalities Reductions

The expanding commercial aviation sector necessitates diverse energy sources, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a promising option. Widespread SAF adoption can help meet transportation fuel demand and offer health benefits for people residing near airports or along airport landing and takeoff (LTO) pathways, where elevated levels of aircraft-derived air pollution often exist. Blending SAF with traditional jet fuels can reduce ultrafine particle (UFP) emissions, which may improve health of near airport population. We analyzed a population of about 8 million people in 1925 census tracts around the Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD). We conducted a risk assessment to estimate anticipated UFP reductions for three adoption scenarios using blends of traditional jet fuels with 5, 25, and 50% SAF across all flights landing and taking off from ORD. We calculated baseline estimates of UFP emissions using ORD flight data, a dispersion model, and a calibration function derived from mobile monitoring data. We used this baseline UFP emission profile across the study area to estimate population-weighted UFP, as well as the attributable case reductions (ACRs) and attributable mortality rate reductions (AMRRs) across the demographic distribution around the airport, based on the SAF blending scenarios. We found a positive association of SAF blending with UFP reductions, particularly near the airport and along LTO flight pathways. Our study showed that the population-weighted UFP across different demographics was similar. ACRs were largely dependent on individual demographic populations, while AMRRs for all populations were relatively similar, with an estimated 0.3 (95% range: 0.2−0.3), 1.1 (0.9−1.4), and 1.8 (1.5−2.2) fewer mortalities per 100,000 people per year expected with the adoption of 5, 25, and 50% SAF blends, respectively. This study indicates that communities near ORD, across a range of demographics, may benefit similarly from SAF adoption, thus highlighting how SAF adoption may offer an opportunity to improve health outcomes like aviation UFP-related mortalities around airports.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Estimating Interplanetary Magnetic Field Conditions at Mercury's Orbit From MESSENGER Magnetosheath Observations Using a Feedforward Neural Network

Abstract Mercury's small magnetosphere is embedded in the dynamic and intense solar wind environment characteristic of the inner heliosphere. Both the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly influence the solar wind‐magnetospheric interaction at Mercury, driving phenomena such as magnetic reconnection. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft provided in‐situ magnetic field measurements of the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the magnetosphere along each orbit. However, it is a challenge to directly assess the IMF's impact on Mercury's plasma environment due to the temporal separation between observations within the solar wind and the magnetosphere, especially in the absence of an upstream monitor. Here, we present a feedforward neural network (FNN) trained on a subset of magnetosheath observations to estimate the strength and orientation of the IMF upstream of the bow shock. Utilizing magnetosheath magnetic field, cylindrical spatial coordinates, and heliocentric distance measurements, the FNN predicts upstream IMF conditions with an score of 0.70 and mean averaged error of 5.3 nT, thereby greatly decreasing the temporal separation between IMF estimates and magnetospheric measurements throughout the MESSENGER mission. This approach yields IMF estimates for all magnetosheath data measured by MESSENGER, providing a useful tool for future investigations of the IMF impact on Mercury's magnetosphere. This method will be integrable with the dual‐spacecraft BepiColombo magnetosheath measurements, providing useful estimates of upstream IMF conditions particularly during the extended periods in which neither spacecraft sample the solar wind. Our results demonstrate the utility of machine learning techniques on advancing space science research.

Bowers, Charles F.↗

Estimated Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

In this data descriptor, we present hourly electricity demand estimates for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016 to 2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components for each county. The first is the weighted average of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. The second is the weighted average of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatially and temporally resolved plasma parameter estimations of laser heated MagLIF relevant gas pipes at NIF

The ability to control laser pre-heat is an integral part of the inertial confinement fusion concept known as Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion. This process is studied at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) where 4 of the 192 laser beams are propagated through a 1-cm long gas cell where they deposit >20 kJ of energy into the gaseous fuel via inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. This process ionizes the gas, producing a plasma that follows behind the laser front and expands over the radius of the cell. Emission from this plasma, as viewed by a gated x-ray detector, can be used to build spatially and temporally resolved estimations of the pre-heat plasma's density and temperature profiles. This can then be used to estimate the plasma pressure, internal energy, and radiation losses. Estimations show the evolution of the plasma in magnetized and unmagnetized gas cells filled with ambient temperature neopentane (C5H12) +1% Ar, as well as unmagnetized cryogenically cooled (32 K) deuterium +1% Ne filled targets. This analysis shows the effects of initial gas-fill density, composition, and axial magnetization on the time-dependent plasma parameters. Previously, these parameters at the NIF had not been experimentally characterized, and these estimations provided a potential new means of testing radiation magneto-hydrodynamic predictive capability models. Results in unmagnetized targets have strong agreement with simulations. However, in targets with a 19 T applied axial magnetic field, this method yields electron temperatures up to 100% hotter than those predicted by HYDRA codes.

Bremsstrahlung↗

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗

Light in the dark forest. Part I. An efficient optimal estimator for 3D Lyman-alpha forest power spectrum

The highly anisotropic nature of the Lyman-alpha (Lyα) forest data introduces a complex survey window function that complicates the measurement of the three-dimensional power spectrum ( P 3D ). In this paper, we present the first fully optimal estimator for P 3D , which exactly deconvolves the survey window function and marginalizes contaminated modes that distort the power spectrum. Our approach adapts optimal estimator techniques developed for the 2D cosmic microwave background data to the 3D case. To achieve computational feasibility, we employ the conjugate gradient method and implement the P 3 M formalism to handle large-scale and small-scale operations separately and efficiently. We validate our estimator using Monte Carlo mocks and Gaussian simulations, demonstrating its accuracy and computational efficiency. We confirm that mode marginalization eliminates distortions arising from quasar continuum errors and delivers robust power spectrum estimation, though it also inflates errors at large scales. This first implementation works in the flat-sky case; we discuss the remaining steps needed to generalize it to the curved-sky case. This formalism offers a foundation for the Lyα forest P 3D measurements and a new path toward cosmological constraints from the Lyα forest data.

Lyman alpha forest↗

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗

Estimating an airborne dipole source using 3-D wavefield simulations and seismic receivers on the ground

Acoustic signals can couple to the ground, providing an opportunity to use seismic stations to investigate airborne sources. The study of Bishop et al. used wavefield simulations in a fluid-solid medium to quantify the role of topography on the seismic (ground) recordings of a monopole source in the air. We build upon this study by linking wavefield forward modelling with the source estimation code MTUQ, which can accommodate point forces or moment tensors in a solid medium, as well as sources in the air (or water) if they are enabled by the forward-modelling solver. We perform a series of synthetic numerical experiments to demonstrate that a dipole airborne source can be estimated using ground-based receivers, even within the presence of realistic topography. We investigate the influence of receiver coverage, topography, and assumed source location on the estimated results. The established capabilities raise the prospects for future efforts to estimate dipole sources in 3-D models that include heterogeneity in the air and the earth in addition to topography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Number of bits returned by a quantum estimation

We give two upper bounds to the mutual information in arbitrary quantum estimation strategies. The first is based on some simple Fourier properties of the estimation apparatus. The second is derived using the first, but, interestingly, depends only on the Fisher information of the parameter, so it is valid even beyond quantum estimation. We illustrate the usefulness of these bounds by characterizing the quantum phase estimation algorithm in the presence of noise. In addition, for the noiseless case, we extend the analysis beyond applying the bound and we discuss the optimal entangled and adaptive strategies, clarifying inaccuracies appearing on this topic in the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗