Results for “Export Controls” — Page 6

DOE OSTI2024

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4

Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.

Krasting, John P. [a NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dy↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Construction of Reduced Order Models for the HYBRID Repository

Reduced order models (ROMs) present an opportunity to reduce the computational burden of IES analysis using HYBRID models without significantly sacrificing data accuracy. Other applications of ROMs are digital twins, stochastic optimization studies, model exporting, and protection of proprietary information. In this paper the capability of creating ROMs of the models within the HYBRID repository will be demonstrated. Specifically, a linear regression ROM of a gas turbine and a dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) ROM of a lithium-ion battery are constructed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Watershed zonation through hillslope clustering for tractably quantifying above- and below-ground watershed heterogeneity and functions

Abstract. In this study, we develop a watershed zonation approach for characterizing watershed organization and functions in a tractable manner by integrating multiple spatial data layers. We hypothesize that (1) a hillslope is an appropriate unit for capturing the watershed-scale heterogeneity of key bedrock-through-canopy properties and for quantifying the co-variability of these properties representing coupled ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions, (2) remote sensing data layers and clustering methods can be used to identify watershed hillslope zones having the unique distributions of these properties relative to neighboring parcels, and (3) property suites associated with the identified zones can be used to understand zone-based functions, such as response to early snowmelt or drought and solute exports to the river. We demonstrate this concept using unsupervised clustering methods that synthesize airborne remote sensing data (lidar, hyperspectral, and electromagnetic surveys) along with satellite and streamflow data collected in the East River Watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. Results show that (1) we can define the scale of hillslopes at which the hillslope-averaged metrics can capture the majority of the overall variability in key properties (such as elevation, net potential annual radiation, and peak snow-water equivalent – SWE), (2) elevation and aspect are independent controls on plant and snow signatures, (3) near-surface bedrock electrical resistivity (top 20 m) and geological structures are significantly correlated with surface topography and plan species distribution, and (4) K-means, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussian mixture clustering methods generate similar zonation patterns across the watershed. Using independently collected data, we show that the identified zones provide information about zone-based watershed functions, including foresummer drought sensitivity and river nitrogen exports. The approach is expected to be applicable to other sites and generally useful for guiding the selection of hillslope-experiment locations and informing model parameterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Status Report on IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENviroment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report provides discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity is maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In addition to the investigative work being conducted on FMUs and FMIs, a series of updates to the hybrid repository has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and opensourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of the IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report aims to provide an overview of all the performed activities resolving around the deployment of methods, software infrastructures, guidelines and workflow for the construction and usage of models, encapsulated using the FMI/FMU protocols and standards. In particular, the report is organized in three main macro-subjects, which are connected to each other: - FMI/FMU adaptors for modelica models - HYBRID repository new structure and open-source deployment - RAVEN FMI/FMU exporting capabilities and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis acceleration. The first part of the report discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models, such as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity are maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In the second part of the report, the new structure of the HYBRID repository is discussed with a major focus on the series of updates that has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. The third and final part of the report aims to report the work that has been performed for the deployment of methods and workflows for the construction of RAVEN AI-based models compliant with the FMI/FMU standard. Such development represents the key for the deployment of the concept of “Flexible ecosystem” since it allows for the replacement of high-fidelity modelica models (or any other FMI/FMU compliant model) with RAVEN generated AI surrogate models. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and open-sourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of the IES Plug-and-Play Framework

This report discusses the status of the flexible plug-and-play framework development currently ongoing that aims to integrate Modelica/Dymola with the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software in terms of both Functional Mock-Up Interface (FMI)/Functional Mock-Up Unit (FMU) construction and repository structures that aim to ease the sharing and simulation of complex dynamic models. This report aims to provide an overview of all the performed activities resolving around the deployment of methods, software infrastructures, guidelines and workflow for the construction and usage of models, encapsulated using the FMI/FMU protocols and standards. In particular, the report is organized in three main macro-subjects, which are connected to each other: - FMI/FMU adaptors for modelica models - HYBRID repository new structure and open-source deployment - RAVEN FMI/FMU exporting capabilities and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based analysis acceleration. The first part of the report discusses the FMI/FMU adaptors that have been created within the HYBRID repository to allow users to quickly export models, such as FMUs. Several examples are shown that highlight the step-by-step process of converting an existing Modelica model into an FMU for use within the Dymola platform. Simulation results demonstrate that, while minor differences may occur, the overall control, trends, and solution integrity are maintained between standard Modelica simulation and FMU simulation results. However, it is worth noting that, for small systems, the FMU results have a slower simulation time than the Modelica only simulation. Using this process, a company can provide models that contain proprietary information to entities without disclosing any of the information about the model that could be considered business sensitive. Such an ability would allow institutions to bypass the necessity of “whitewashing” data. In the second part of the report, the new structure of the HYBRID repository is discussed with a major focus on the series of updates that has been completed. These updates include the addition of Modelica system-level regression tests and software quality assurance documentation that ensure that modifications to the Modelica models do not alter system-level model results. The third and final part of the report aims to report the work that has been performed for the deployment of methods and workflows for the construction of RAVEN AI-based models compliant with the FMI/FMU standard. Such development represents the key for the deployment of the concept of “Flexible ecosystem” since it allows for the replacement of high-fidelity modelica models (or any other FMI/FMU compliant model) with RAVEN generated AI surrogate models. Overall, extensive work has been completed on developing FMUs and FMIs from existing models, understanding the requirements and limitations of FMUs, and open-sourcing the HYBRID repository with an integrated regression system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Response of a Mountainous Watershed Using Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling

Abstract Climate change and other disturbances significantly impact hydrogeochemical exports from mountainous headwater catchments such as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how the physical and chemical processes interact in time and space in an integrated manner is key to quantifying the future impacts of such disturbances. The hydrogeochemical response of a mountainous catchment in the 2010–2019 period is evaluated quantitatively using a high‐resolution model that simulates integrated hydrology, and transport and reactions for selected solutes and minerals. The model assumes that pyrite is present only at depth while calcite is distributed uniformly, and captures the observed C‐Q reasonably well. Distinct C‐Q dynamics are observed in an average (WY16), a wet (WY17), and a dry (WY18) water year. The model also quantifies the water fraction from surface, shallow and deep groundwater compartments using tracers, and suggests greater groundwater contributions to peak stream discharge in the dry WY18. Results demonstrate that calcium concentrations do not change significantly from year to year, while sulfate shows significant temporal variability. Pyrite dissolution is affected by the changing hydrological drivers where it is enhanced in the dry WY18; calcite dissolution supplements calcium dilution under high flow conditions. The model simulates the reaction hotspots controlled by hydrological conditions, and the spatially‐resolved results show that higher soil saturation and less snowpack occur earlier on the south‐facing side than on the north‐facing side. This is a first‐of‐its‐kind demonstration of a model that integrates hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration, and reactive transport to enable a predictive understanding of hydrogeochemical exports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High methane concentrations in tidal salt marsh soils: Where does the methane go?

Abstract Tidal salt marshes produce and emit CH 4 . Therefore, it is critical to understand the biogeochemical controls that regulate CH 4 spatial and temporal dynamics in wetlands. The prevailing paradigm assumes that acetoclastic methanogenesis is the dominant pathway for CH 4 production, and higher salinity concentrations inhibit CH 4 production in salt marshes. Recent evidence shows that CH 4 is produced within salt marshes via methylotrophic methanogenesis, a process not inhibited by sulfate reduction. To further explore this conundrum, we performed measurements of soil–atmosphere CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes coupled with depth profiles of soil CH 4 and CO 2 pore water gas concentrations, stable and radioisotopes, pore water chemistry, and microbial community composition to assess CH 4 production and fate within a temperate tidal salt marsh. We found unexpectedly high CH 4 concentrations up to 145,000 μmol mol −1 positively correlated with S 2− (salinity range: 6.6–14.5 ppt). Despite large CH 4 production within the soil, soil–atmosphere CH 4 fluxes were low but with higher emissions and extreme variability during plant senescence (84.3 ± 684.4 nmol m −2 s −1 ). CH 4 and CO 2 within the soil pore water were produced from young carbon, with most Δ 14 C‐CH 4 and Δ 14 C‐CO 2 values at or above modern. We found evidence that CH 4 within soils was produced by methylotrophic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Several pathways exist after CH 4 is produced, including diffusion into the atmosphere, CH 4 oxidation, and lateral export to adjacent tidal creeks; the latter being the most likely dominant flux. Our findings demonstrate that CH 4 production and fluxes are biogeochemically heterogeneous, with multiple processes and pathways that can co‐occur and vary in importance over the year. This study highlights the potential for high CH 4 production, the need to understand the underlying biogeochemical controls, and the challenges of evaluating CH 4 budgets and blue carbon in salt marshes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

*-DCC: A platform to collect, annotate, and explore a large variety of sequencing experiments

Background: Over the past few years the variety of experimental designs and protocols for sequencing experiments increased greatly. To ensure the wide usability of the produced data beyond an individual project, rich and systematic annotation of the underlying experiments is crucial. Findings: We first developed an annotation structure that captures the overall experimental design as well as the relevant details of the steps from the biological sample to the library preparation, the sequencing procedure, and the sequencing and processed files. Through various design features, such as controlled vocabularies and different field requirements, we ensured a high annotation quality, comparability, and ease of annotation. The structure can be easily adapted to a large variety of species. We then implemented the annotation strategy in a user-hosted web platform with data import, query, and export functionality. Conclusions: We present here an annotation structure and user-hosted platform for sequencing experiment data, suitable for lab-internal documentation, collaborations, and large-scale annotation efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

QA/QC of the East River, Colorado, discharge and geochemical time series datasets (Almont, BCC, and Pump House) to be used for modeling of hydrogeochemical balance

The following datasets were QA/QC-ed (Quality Assurance/Quality Control): 1. Brush Creek Confluence (BCC) discharge data (from Helen Malenda, USGS, Colorado School of Mines), which were calculated using the pressure transducer data and rating curves. The original 15 min time series data were presented as mean daily discharge. 2. Almont discharge data from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The original data were in 15 min time intervals, and were averaged to mean daily discharge time series. 3. Pump House discharge data as mean daily discharge (downloaded from the SFA portal). 4. BCC and Pump House chemistry data from SFA data portal and/or original spreadsheets provided by Roelof Versteeg. The following challenging QA/QC problems of the datasets were resolved: Missing data with the duration of gaps up to >1 month; Duplicated dates; Anomalies and outliers of discharge and concentrations; Time stamps of measurements of the discharge and concentrations are not aligned (hydrogeochemical balance calculations require the timestamps to be aligned). All QA/QC-ed datasets are given as csv files. The csv files were prepared using the xts files with multiple worksheets, which are also included in the data packages. Figures of the QA/QC-ed datasets are given in the jpeg and pdf formats. The QA/QC-ed datasets have been used to quantify discharge and chemical concentrations in river water in order to understand riverine exports of water and dissolved constituents in the East River watershed. These datasets served as a basis in the presentation given by P. Fox et al. at the 2021 Goldschmidt Conference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Strategic Trade Atlas 2014-2018. Country- and Commodity-Based Views

A Strategic Trade Atlas was developed to promote understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, i.e., goods of militarily strategic value, including dual-use goods. This Atlas provides macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the World Customs Organization with strategic commodities. The profiles provide information rich representations of strategic commodity-related imports and exports classified under these HS codes, based on data originally reported to and made publicly available by the United Nations Statistical Division, then processed to reconcile trade asymmetries by the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. This and other high quality, statistically relevant data sources exist, but are largely untapped resources for strategic trade control purposes. Efforts to promote and facilitate use of trade data should enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic trade control efforts.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strategic Trade Atlas 2015-2019: Country- and Commodity-Based Views

A Strategic Trade Atlas was developed to promote understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, i.e., goods of militarily strategic value, including dual-use goods. This Atlas provides macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the World Customs Organization with strategic commodities. The profiles provide information rich representations of strategic commodity-related imports and exports classified under these HS codes, based on data originally reported to and made publicly available by the United Nations Statistical Division, then processed to reconcile trade asymmetries by the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. This and other high quality, statistically relevant data sources exist, but are largely untapped resources for strategic trade control purposes. Efforts to promote and facilitate use of trade data should enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic trade control efforts.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗

DOE OSTI2020

A dynamic interaction between CD19 and the tetraspanin CD81 controls B cell co-receptor trafficking

CD81 and its binding partner CD19 are core subunits of the B cell co-receptor complex. While CD19 belongs to the extensively studied Ig superfamily, CD81 belongs to a poorly understood family of four-pass transmembrane proteins called tetraspanins. Tetraspanins play important physiological roles by controlling protein trafficking and other processes. Here, we show that CD81 relies on its ectodomain to traffic CD19 to the cell surface. Moreover, the anti-CD81 antibody 5A6, which binds selectively to activated B cells, recognizes a conformational epitope on CD81 that is masked when CD81 is bound to CD19. Mutations of CD81 in this interface suppress its CD19 export activity. These data indicate that the CD81 - CD19 interaction is dynamically regulated upon B cell activation and this dynamism can be exploited to regulate B cell function. These results are not only valuable for understanding B cell biology, but also have important implications for understanding tetraspanin function generally.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Third-integer Resonant Extraction Regulation System for Mu2e

A third-integer resonant slow extraction system is being developed for Fermilab's Delivery Ring to deliver protons to the upcoming Mu2e experiment. The timescale of the extraction (or spill) duration is 43 milliseconds, which is extremely short and unprecedented. Additionally, the experiment's strict and challenging requirements on the quality of the spill at this time scale has led to the development of a new Spill Regulation System (SRS) design. The SRS primarily consists of three components - slow regulation, fast regulation, and harmonic content suppressor. Contributions to the first two components of the SRS, i.e., Slow Regulation and Fast Regulation subsystems, will be presented in which new adaptive learning algorithm schemes for the slow regulation of the spill -- validated using particle tracking simulations -- shall be described. In addition to these novel methods for the enhancement of the spill regulation system, results of employing Machine Learning in enhancing the performance of the resonant extraction are also presented. At the forefront of applying ML techniques to solve non-linear accelerator control problems, this work includes optimizing the PID gains as well as the replacement of the traditional PID controller using Recurrent Neural Networks and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) ML models to achieve efficiencies greater than a PID controller. Cutting-edge on-going Reinforcement Learning efforts, including an actor-critic family of learning algorithms, to regulate the spill rate will be reviewed, as well as present analytical calculations pertaining the transit time of particles in a third-integer resonant extraction. Detailed numerical investigations and validations of such calculations, the model of which could be exported and reliably used in future analytical modeling of any resonant extraction, are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Manganese Limitation of Phytoplankton Physiology and Productivity in the Southern Ocean

Although iron and light are understood to regulate the Southern Ocean biological carbon pump, observations have also indicated a possible role for manganese. Low concentrations in Southern Ocean surface waters suggest manganese limitation is possible, but its spatial extent remains poorly constrained and direct manganese limitation of the marine carbon cycle has been neglected by ocean models. Here, using available observations, we develop a new global biogeochemical model and find that phytoplankton in over half of the Southern Ocean cannot attain maximal growth rates because of manganese deficiency. Manganese limitation is most extensive in austral spring and depends on phytoplankton traits related to the size of photosynthetic antennae and the inhibition of manganese uptake by high zinc concentrations in Antarctic waters. Importantly, manganese limitation expands under the increased iron supply of past glacial periods, reducing the response of the biological carbon pump. Overall, these model experiments describe a mosaic of controls on Southern Ocean productivity that emerge from the interplay of light, iron, manganese and zinc, shaping the evolution of Antarctic phytoplankton since the opening of the Drake Passage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

MOOSE Reactor Module: An Open-Source Capability for Meshing Nuclear Reactor Geometries

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has developed numerous physics solvers utilizing the open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework for multiphysics reactor analysis. These solvers require input finite element meshes representing the discretized spatial domain. Typically, reactor analysts turn to licensed tools for the creation of reactor geometry meshes. Recently, open-source functionality has been added to the MOOSE framework to mesh common reactor geometries and improve MOOSE-based nuclear reactor application user workflows. The new functionality is primarily contained in the new Reactor module of MOOSE and includes support for hexagonal pins, assemblies, and cores, extended Cartesian geometry support, options for modeling static and rotating control drums within a hexagonal assembly, core periphery triangulation, and automatic tagging of pin, assembly, plane, and depletion regions for easier post processing of physics results. A set of reactor geometry mesh builder objects further streamlines the construction of hexagonal and Cartesian cores and allows mapping of materials to regions during mesh generation. The meshes produced with the MOOSE Reactor module may be used directly within MOOSE-based applications or exported as Exodus II files for use in other finite element solvers. The tools have been demonstrated and verified using a variety of NEAMS physics solvers on a range of reactor applications, including a sodium-cooled fast reactor core analysis using Griffin, a fast reactor assembly thermal deformation analysis using MOOSE Tensor Mechanics, and a heat pipe–cooled microreactor coupled analysis using Griffin, Bison, and Sockeye. MOOSE’s Reactor module provides significant advantages compared to the use of external meshing tools when analyzing Cartesian and hexagonal reactor lattices using MOOSE-based applications: immediate accessibility (open-source) to the end user, low barrier to entry for new users, speed of mesh generation, volume preservation of meshed fuel pins, and simplification of analysis workflow when used in conjunction with MOOSE-based applications.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Compartmental Control of UDP-Araf Supply: Golgi Lumen UDP-Arabinopyranose Mutase Depletes Plant Cell Wall Araf Linkages

L-Arabinofuranose (Araf) is a major constituent of plant cell wall polysaccharides. UDP-Araf is generated from UDP-L-arabinopyranose (UDP-Arap) by a UDP-Arap mutase (UAM) on the cytosolic face of the Golgi and then imported into the Golgi lumen for utilization by arabinosyltransferases (AraTs). Yet, a substantial fraction of UDP-Arap is synthesized in the Golgi lumen by the UDP-xylose 4-epimerase (UXE), creating a topological paradox where luminal UDP-Arap must be exported to the cytosol for conversion to UDP-Araf by UAM and then re-imported into the Golgi lumen. To test the functional significance of this compartmentation, we mislocalized Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) UAM1 to the Golgi lumen by fusing it to the UXE1 transmembrane domain. The fusion protein was present in the Golgi, and protease-protection assays on microsomes supported its luminal orientation. In wild-type and uam1 plants, Golgi-targeted UAM1 reduced total cell wall Arabinose without consistent changes in other monosaccharides. Linkage analyses showed that this decrease reflects selective loss of Araf residues, whereas Arap remain largely unchanged, consistent with reduced UDP-Araf availability for luminal AraTs. Under salt stress, expression of Golgi-targeted UAM1 in uam1 caused root-growth inhibition and maturation-zone swelling that exogenous L-Ara failed to rescue. These results support a hypothesis that the strong thermodynamic bias of the UAM reaction toward UDP-Arap requires spatial separation of UDP-Arap production from UDP-Araf formation to sustain UDP-Araf flux into Golgi arabinosylation and avoid futile intraluminal back-conversion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Potential Impacts of Dynamic Electricity Pricing in California: Load Shape and Customer Bill Impacts Under Elastic Customer Response

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in California has intensified grid management challenges, exemplified by the “duck curve” and the resulting need for steep ramping and curtailment of renewables. To address these issues, dynamic electricity tariffs that vary in near-real time are being considered to incentivize customers to shift demand and support the grid. This study extends previous work on the bill impacts of such tariffs in the absence of load response by quantifying the system-level and customer impacts of load response based on customer price elasticity. Customer-level load response modeling was conducted using meter data from 411,000 customers across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Customer demand elasticity was estimated using literature-based values, with scenarios ranging from low to high elasticity, including an automation-enhanced scenario. Results indicate that universal adoption of, and response to, dynamic tariffs can significantly reduce peak net load (by 15%) and maximum ramping requirements (by 20%) with moderate elasticity, delivering demand response resources comparable to or exceeding current programs at all elasticity levels. Bill analysis shows that, when responding elastically to dynamic prices, most non-PV customers experience modest savings, while PV customers may see higher effective rates due to lower compensation for exports during low-price periods. Emissions analysis reveals a reduction in per-kWh emissions system-wide, with a total absolute load increase of 2% accompanied by a negligible absolute emissions increase. The study concludes that while dynamic tariffs offer substantial grid benefits, customer bill savings under modeled response behaviors may be too modest to drive widespread adoption without additional incentives or enabling technologies. Future research should model flexible loads and advanced control technologies with greater fidelity to better represent the potential opportunities of dynamic tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗