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NASA NTRS2004

High Altitude Long Endurance Remotely Operated Aircraft - National Airspace System Integration - Simulation IPT: Detailed Airspace Operations Simulation Plan. Version 1.0

The primary goal of Access 5 is to allow safe, reliable and routine operations of High Altitude-Long Endurance Remotely Operated Aircraft (HALE ROAs) within the National Airspace System (NAS). Step 1 of Access 5 addresses the policies, procedures, technologies and implementation issues of introducing such operations into the NAS above pressure altitude 40,000 ft (Flight Level 400 or FL400). Routine HALE ROA activity within the NAS represents a potentially significant change to the tasks and concerns of NAS users, service providers and other stakeholders. Due to the complexity of the NAS, and the importance of maintaining current high levels of safety in the NAS, any significant changes must be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation. The Access 5 community has been tasked with performing this detailed evaluation of routine HALE-ROA activities in the NAS, and providing to key NAS stakeholders a set of recommended policies and procedures to achieve this goal. Extensive simulation, in concert with a directed flight demonstration program are intended to provide the required supporting evidence that these recommendations are based on sound methods and offer a clear roadmap to achieving safe, reliable and routine HALE ROA operations in the NAS. Through coordination with NAS service providers and policy makers, and with significant input from HALE-ROA manufacturers, operators and pilots, this document presents the detailed simulation plan for Step 1 of Access 5. A brief background of the Access 5 project will be presented with focus on Steps 1 and 2, concerning HALE-ROA operations above FL400 and FL180 respectively. An overview of project management structure follows with particular emphasis on the role of the Simulation IPT and its relationships to other project entities. This discussion will include a description of work packages assigned to the Simulation IPT, and present the specific goals to be achieved for each simulation work package, along with the associated deliverables necessary to achieve these goals and the needs of other Access 5 IPTs. The simulation environment chosen for this task is then outlined. This section includes a description of the system architecture, a list of the necessary assumptions made by the Simulation IPT, and the roles, responsibilities and interactions of simulation participants. The method of simulation conduct is presented in the next section with particular emphasis on scenario development and applicability to evaluation of Step 1 HALE-ROA operations. Following, data collection and analysis methods are discussed for air traffic specialists and air vehicle control station operators. Lastly, a schedule of Step 1 simulation activities is presented for reference.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

Safe Operations at Roadway Junctions: Intelligent Roadway Infrastructure as Functional Interlocking

Automated vehicle (AV) technology is quickly maturing, and the corresponding infrastructure systems that evaluate traffic and communicate to vehicles requires sophisticated sensing and perception technologies, referred to as intelligent roadway infrastructure (IRI), to complement emerging AV capabilities. IRI provides signals to vehicles, indicating right-of-way for vehicles and communicating to approaching AVs that no other vehicle is failing to yield. This capability, denoted as safety-affirmative signaling, provides a green light or a green arrow as appropriate and affirms through communication links to connected vehicles when it is safe to proceed. About 36% of collisions occur at intersections, with most occurring upon left turns (22.2%) or crossing over (12.6%), and only a small percentage (1.2%) while turning right at an intersection. Of all intersection crashes about half (52.5%) of those vehicles were traveling through a signalized intersection 2. Safety-affirmative signaling would guarantee safety of AV fleet vehicles, by providing the interlocking principle, a term from automated train control that only allows progression through a railway intersection after affirming no opportunity for a crash exists. IRI through safety-affirmative signaling would bring performance and safety to complex roadway intersections where AV transit fleet service is most needed, as well as safety benefits to traditional, non-automated vehicles and vulnerable road users. The implementation of IRI has functional, programmatic, and technical challenges. Research work performed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in an integrative approach encapsulating these themes, and termed infrastructure perception and control (IPC) is motivated by improved performance (travel time), improved safety (reduced collisions), and improved energy efficiency (less fuel burned and minimized production of greenhouse gases). IPC is intended not only for roadway and intersection applications but also in extension to inform complementary buildings and grid systems to enable better co-management, as vehicles and their charging needs become increasingly integrated into the built environment. The NREL IPC project presents an open-source framework, architecture, and supporting technology to implement IRI, addressing critical issues such as fusion of data, reliability, standardization of data interfaces, and confidence of detection. The framework is informed by previous experience in U.S. Department of Defense research technology, specifically in the use of radar to detect, identify, and track aerial threats. These principles combined with multi-sensor fusion provides for a complete digital twin with known and measurable confidence and accuracy from which safety-affirmative signaling can be developed and deployed.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

NASA NTRS1997

Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

Odoni, Amedeo R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗