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105 records · Page 6

TPSAS-NF1676L-12168-DND

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Surveillance and Broadcast Services Program Office considers Interval Management (IM) to be one of the three key, near-term applications to make use of ADS-B-In, the receiving and processing of Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast data on-board an aircraft. Interval Management is used to describe a wide range of operational applications and uses of airborne spacing technology. Interval Management makes use of improved scheduling and sequencing capabilities for the air traffic controllers (ATC) and precise, relative spacing of aircraft, to improve airport throughput, increase the use of Optimized Profile Descents (OPD), and reduce tactical controller workload. The IM applications are subdivided into two categories: one where the flight crew is authorized to manage their speed to achieve the IM goal while the controller retains separation responsibility and a second where the flight crew takes responsibility for both managing speed but also for separation from the specified target aircraft. The former is referred to as Interval Management-Spacing (IM-S) and the latter as Interval Management-Delegated Separation (IM-DS). For the past 10 years NASA has been working on a specific IM application called Airborne Precision Spacing (APS). This concept has focused on increasing runway throughput while enabling OPDs. It is seen as a specific application within the IM class of applications. This talk will present the current state of the APS concept including support for dependent parallel runway operations and how NASA is working to have APS support the broader IM activities. Planned development and testing of APS, including extensions to support IM-DS and FAA-planned flight trials will be presented along with several up-coming simulations.

Bryan E Barmore↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-12329-DND

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Surveillance and Broadcast Services Program Office considers Interval Management (IM) to be one of the three key, near-term applications to make use of ADS-B-In, the receiving and processing of Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast data on-board an aircraft. Interval Management is used to describe a wide range of operational applications and uses of airborne spacing technology. Interval Management makes use of improved scheduling and sequencing capabilities for the air traffic controllers (ATC) and precise, relative spacing of aircraft, to improve airport throughput, increase the use of Optimized Profile Descents (OPD), and reduce tactical controller workload. The IM applications are subdivided into two categories: one where the flight crew is authorized to manage their speed to achieve the IM goal while the controller retains separation responsibility and a second where the flight crew takes responsibility for both managing speed but also for separation from the specified target aircraft. The former is referred to as Interval Management-Spacing (IM-S) and the latter as Interval Management-Delegated Separation (IM-DS). For the past 10 years NASA has been working on a specific IM application called Airborne Precision Spacing (APS). This concept has focused on increasing runway throughput while enabling OPDs. It is seen as a specific application within the IM class of applications. This talk will present the current state of the APS concept including support for dependent parallel runway operations and how NASA is working to have APS support the broader IM activities. Planned development and testing of APS, including extensions to support IM-DS and FAA-planned flight trials will be presented along with several up-coming simulations.

Brian T Baxley↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-12441-DND

The increasing presence of airport surface surveillance technologies has spawned a strong interest in airport surface traffic management research; the vast majority has assumed that the airport’s runway configuration is known and constant. Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM), one component of NASA’s System Oriented Runway Management concept, plans the airport configuration to optimize traffic efficiency for the forecast weather, traffic, and other factors. While planning runway configuration can provide benefit and is required by other automation concepts, larger benefits are possible by planning other airport configuration decisions, such as runway assignment policies, that are currently made manually by controllers. A laboratory prototype of the TRCM algorithm which selects optimal airport configuration schedules has been implemented and studied within a simulation environment. The presentation will describe simulation results for several airports, under various weather and traffic conditions. The sequence of airport configurations recommended by TRCM result in significantly less delay than the airport configurations that were actually used by controllers, illustrating both the potential benefit from airport configuration optimization and the ability of TRCM to provide effective airport configuration schedules. The application to several, distinct airports demonstrates the approach is capable of handling the differences between airports with a common algorithm, while providing decision support that respects the current procedures at those airports. Consequently, TRCM is able to be deployed to any airport within the current National Airspace System. The TRCM algorithmic approach is also extensible to future operational scenarios. NASA is in the process of transferring the initial TRCM technology to the FAA. Future research will extend the concept and algorithm to provide coordinated plans for metroplex airports and study NextGen applications.

Stephen Atkins↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-12263-DND

The increasing presence of airport surface surveillance technologies has spawned a strong interest in airport surface traffic management research; the vast majority has assumed that the airport’s runway configuration is known and constant. Tactical Runway Configuration Management (TRCM), one component of NASA’s System Oriented Runway Management concept, plans the airport configuration to optimize traffic efficiency for the forecast weather, traffic, and other factors. While planning runway configuration can provide benefit and is required by other automation concepts, larger benefits are possible by planning other airport configuration decisions, such as runway assignment policies, that are currently made manually by controllers. A laboratory prototype of the TRCM algorithm which selects optimal airport configuration schedules has been implemented and studied within a simulation environment. The presentation will describe simulation results for several airports, under various weather and traffic conditions. The sequence of airport configurations recommended by TRCM result in significantly less delay than the airport configurations that were actually used by controllers, illustrating both the potential benefit from airport configuration optimization and the ability of TRCM to provide effective airport configuration schedules. The application to several, distinct airports demonstrates the approach is capable of handling the differences between airports with a common algorithm, while providing decision support that respects the current procedures at those airports. Consequently, TRCM is able to be deployed to any airport within the current National Airspace System. The TRCM algorithmic approach is also extensible to future operational scenarios. NASA is in the process of transferring the initial TRCM technology to the FAA. Future research will extend the concept and algorithm to provide coordinated plans for metroplex airports and study NextGen applications.

Stephen Atkins↗

Assessing variation in faecal glucocorticoid concentrations in gray whales exposed to anthropogenic stressors

Understanding how individual animals respond to stressors behaviourally and physiologically is a critical step towards quantifying long-term population consequences and informing management efforts. Glucocorticoid (GC) metabolite accumulation in various matrices provides an integrated measure of adrenal activation in baleen whales and could thus be used to investigate physiological changes following exposure to stressors. In this study, we measured GC concentrations in faecal samples of Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG) gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) collected over seven consecutive years to assess the association between GC content and metrics of exposure to sound levels and vessel traffic at different temporal scales, while controlling for contextual variables such as sex, reproductive status, age, body condition, year, time of year and location. We develop a Bayesian Generalized Additive Modelling approach that accommodates the many complexities of these data, including non-linear variation in hormone concentrations, missing covariate values, repeated samples, sampling variability and some hormone concentrations below the limit of detection. Estimated relationships showed large variability, but emerging patterns indicate a strong context-dependency of physiological variation, depending on sex, body condition and proximity to a port. Our results highlight the need to control for baseline hormone variation related to context, which otherwise can obscure the functional relationship between faecal GCs and stressor exposure. Therefore, extensive data collection to determine sources of baseline variation in well-studied populations, such as PCFG gray whales, could shed light on cetacean stress physiology and be used to extend applicability to less-well-studied taxa. GC analyses may offer greatest utility when employed as part of a suite of markers that, in aggregate, provide a multivariate measure of physiological status, better informing estimates of individuals’ health and ultimately the consequences of anthropogenic stressors on populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Polar Ocean Observations: A Critical Gap in the Observing System and Its Effect on Environmental Predictions From Hours to a Season

There is a growing need for operational oceanographic predictions in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. In the former, this is driven by a declining ice cover accompanied by an increase in maritime traffic and exploitation of marine resources. Oceanographic predictions in the Antarctic are also important, both to support Antarctic operations and also to help elucidate processes governing sea ice and ice shelf stability. However, a significant gap exists in the ocean observing system in polar regions, compared to most areas of the global ocean, hindering the reliability of ocean and sea ice forecasts. This gap can also be seen from the spread in ocean and sea ice reanalyses for polar regions which provide an estimate of their uncertainty. The reduced reliability of polar predictions may affect the quality of various applications including search and rescue, coupling with numerical weather and seasonal predictions, historical reconstructions (reanalysis), aquaculture and environmental management including environmental emergency response. Here, we outline the status of existing near-real time ocean observational efforts in polar regions, discuss gaps, and explore perspectives for the future. Specific recommendations include a renewed call for open access to data, especially real-time data, as a critical capability for improved sea ice and weather forecasting and other environmental prediction needs. Dedicated efforts are also needed to make use of additional observations made as part of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP; 2017– 2019) to inform optimal observing system design. To provide a polar extension to the Argo network, it is recommended that a network of ice-borne sea ice and upper-ocean observing buoys be deployed and supported operationally in ice-covered areas together with autonomous profiling floats and gliders (potentially with ice detection capability) in seasonally ice covered seas. Finally, additional efforts to better measure and parameterize surface exchanges in polar regions are much needed to improve coupled environmental prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ASDFL: An adaptive super‐pixel discriminative feature‐selective learning for vehicle matching

Abstract There are a large number of cameras in modern transportation system that capture numerous vehicle images continuously. Therefore, automatic analysis of these vehicle images is helpful for traffic flow management, criminal investigations and vehicle inspections. Vehicle matching, which aims to determine whether two input images depict an identical vehicle, is one of the core tasks in vehicle analysis. Recent relevant studies have focused on local feature extraction instead of global extraction, since local details can provide crucial cues to distinguish between cars. However, these methods do not select local features; that is, they do not assign weights to local features. Therefore, in this research, we systematically study the vehicle matching task, and present a novel annotation‐free local‐based deep learning method called Adaptive super‐pixel discriminative feature‐selective learning (ASDFL) to address this issue. In ASDFL, vehicle images are segmented into clusters of super‐pixels of similar size by considering the location and colour similarities of pixels without using any component‐level annotation. These super‐pixels are deemed to be the virtual components of vehicles. Moreover, a convolutional neural network is used to extract the deep features of these virtual components. Thereafter, an instance‐specific mask generation module driven by the extracted global features is enhanced to produce a mask to select the most distinctive virtual components of each vehicle image pair in the feature space. Finally, the vehicle matching task is accomplished by classifying the selected virtual component features of each imaged vehicle pair. Extensive experiments on two popular vehicle identification benchmarks demonstrate that our method is 1.57% and 0.8% more accurate than the previous baselines in a vehicle matching task on the VeRi and VehicleID datasets, respectively, which demonstrates the effectiveness of our method.

Qin, Rong↗

One network metric datastore to track them all: the OSG network metric service

The Open Science Grid (OSG) relies upon the network as a critical part of the distributed infrastructures it enables. In 2012, OSG added a new focus area in networking with a goal of becoming the primary source of network information for its members and collaborators. This includes gathering, organizing, and providing network metrics to guarantee effective network usage and prompt detection and resolution of any network issues, including connection failures, congestion, and traffic routing. In September of 2015, this service was deployed into the OSG production environment. We will report on the creation, implementation, testing, and deployment of the OSG Networking Service. Starting from organizing the deployment of perfSONAR toolkits within OSG and its partners, to the challenges of orchestrating regular testing between sites, to reliably gathering the resulting network metrics and making them available for users, virtual organizations, and higher level services, all aspects of implementation will be reviewed. In particular, several higher-level services were developed to bring the OSG network service to its full potential. These include a web-based mesh configuration system, which allows central scheduling and management of all the network tests performed by the instances; a set of probes to continually gather metrics from the remote instances and publish it to different sources; a central network datastore (esmond), which provides interfaces to access the network monitoring information in close to real time and historically (up to a year) giving the state of the tests; and a perfSONAR infrastructure monitor system, ensuring the current perfSONAR instances are correctly configured and operating as intended. We will also describe the challenges we encountered in ongoing operations of the network service and how we have evolved our procedures to address those challenges. Finally we will describe our plans for future extensions and improvements to the service.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Geometric Assessment of PlanetScope Imagery

Commercial companies such as Maxar, Planet Labs, and BlackSky have built large archives of high resolution (1-3 m) Earth observing data. The high temporal resolution and global coverage of these satellites makes commercial satellite images ideal for scientists studying rapidly changing processes such as flooding and fires. The high spatial resolution allows scientists to push studies to a fine scale such as monitoring agricultural growth experiments or detecting vehicles for traffic management. Scientists using these data need to know geolocation accuracy, band-to-band registration (BBR), and pixel footprint size to best determine appropriate applications as well as what extra steps they will need to take to use the data. Here, we find those key geometric properties for images from Planet Labs’ SuperDove constellation. Geolocation accuracy is assessed relative to WorldView images at globally distributed cities, band-to-band registration (BBR) is examined for every image we acquired (200+ images), and pixel footprint sizes are calculated from edge responses of the images over Cal/Val sites in China, India, or USA both near launch time and 1+ years after launch. We find that SuperDove geolocation is highly self-consistent with average global offsets among SuperDove images of 3.80 m (1.27 pixels). Despite this self-consistency, relative geolocation accuracy (with WorldView images as reference) varies by location from 3.20 m – 28.09 m mean offset. SuperDove BBR is sub-pixel and varies by band, with a mean radial offset relative to red band varying from 0.39 - 1.13 m. SuperDove image footprint size improves after 1+ years in orbit, with an average footprint size of 3.41 pixels (10.24 m) soon after launch and 3.23 pixels (9.7 m) 1+ years after launch. The BBR and self-consistency offsets are relatively small, given the large footprint sizes. A similarly extensive investigation is in progress for Planet Labs’ Dove-R series.

Alana G. Semple↗

Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM): A Blueprint for Greater Autonomy in Air Traffic Management

The aviation users of the National Airspace System (NAS) - the airlines, General Aviation (GA), the military and, most recently, operators of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) - are constrained in their operations by the design of the current paradigm for air traffic control (ATC). Some of these constraints include ATC preferred routes, departure fix restrictions and airspace ground delay programs. As a result, most flights cannot operate on their most efficient business trajectories and a great many flights are delayed even getting into the air, which imposes a significant challenge to maintaining efficient flight and network operations. Rather than accepting ever more sophisticated scheduling solutions to accommodate the existing constraints in the airspace, a series of increasingly capable airborne technologies, integrated with planned improvements in the ground system through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Next Generation Air Traffic Management System (NextGen) programs, could produce much greater operational flexibility for flight path optimization by the aviation system users. These capabilities, described in research coming out of NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, can maintain or improve operational safety while taking advantage of air and ground NextGen technologies in novel ways. The underlying premise is that the nation's physical airspace is still abundant and underused, and that the delays and inefficient flight operations resulting from artificial structure in airspace use and procedural constraints on those operations may not be necessary for safe and efficient flight. This article is not an indictment of today's NAS or the people who run it. Indeed, it is an exceptional achievement that Air Traffic Management (ATM) - the complex human/machine conglomeration of communications, navigation and surveillance equipment and the rules and procedures for controlling traffic in the airspace - has both the capacity and enables the degree of efficiency in air travel that it does. But it is also true that sixty years of the "radar religion" (i.e., reliance on radar-based command and control) has produced several generations of ATM system operators and researchers who believe that introducing automation within the existing functional structure of ATM is the only way to "modernize" the system. Even NextGen, which began as a proposal for "transformational" change in the way ATC is performed, has morphed over the last decade and a half to become just the inclusion of Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation, Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) for surveillance, and Data Communications (Data Comm) for communications, while still operating in rigidly structured airspace with human controllers being responsible for separation and traffic flow management (TFM) within defined sectors of airspace, using the same horizontal separation standards that have been in use since raw primary radar was introduced in the 1950s. No system as massive as the current NAS ATM can be replaced with a better system while simultaneously meeting the transportation and other aviation needs of the nation. A new generation of more flexible operations must emerge and yet coexist in harmony with the current operation (i.e., share the same airspace without segregation), thereby enabling a long-term transformation to take place in the way increasing numbers of flights are handled. Market forces will be the ultimate driver of this transformation, and investment realities mandate that real benefits must accrue to the first operators to adopt these new capabilities. In fact, the kinds of missions envisioned in the emerging world of UAS operations, unachievable under conventional ATM, demand that this transformation take place. Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM) is proposed as a series of transformational steps leading to vastly increased flexibility in flight operations and capacity in the airspace to accommodate many varied airspace uses while improving safety. As will be described, ABTM enables the gradual emergence of a new paradigm for user-based trajectory management in ATM that brings tangible benefits to equipped operators at every step while leveraging the air and ground investments of NextGen. There are five steps in this ABTM transformation.1 NASA has extensively studied the first and last of these steps, and a roadmap of increasing capabilities and benefits is proposed for bridging between these operational concepts.

Cotton, William B.↗

High Altitude Long Endurance Remotely Operated Aircraft - National Airspace System Integration - Simulation IPT: Detailed Airspace Operations Simulation Plan. Version 1.0

The primary goal of Access 5 is to allow safe, reliable and routine operations of High Altitude-Long Endurance Remotely Operated Aircraft (HALE ROAs) within the National Airspace System (NAS). Step 1 of Access 5 addresses the policies, procedures, technologies and implementation issues of introducing such operations into the NAS above pressure altitude 40,000 ft (Flight Level 400 or FL400). Routine HALE ROA activity within the NAS represents a potentially significant change to the tasks and concerns of NAS users, service providers and other stakeholders. Due to the complexity of the NAS, and the importance of maintaining current high levels of safety in the NAS, any significant changes must be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation. The Access 5 community has been tasked with performing this detailed evaluation of routine HALE-ROA activities in the NAS, and providing to key NAS stakeholders a set of recommended policies and procedures to achieve this goal. Extensive simulation, in concert with a directed flight demonstration program are intended to provide the required supporting evidence that these recommendations are based on sound methods and offer a clear roadmap to achieving safe, reliable and routine HALE ROA operations in the NAS. Through coordination with NAS service providers and policy makers, and with significant input from HALE-ROA manufacturers, operators and pilots, this document presents the detailed simulation plan for Step 1 of Access 5. A brief background of the Access 5 project will be presented with focus on Steps 1 and 2, concerning HALE-ROA operations above FL400 and FL180 respectively. An overview of project management structure follows with particular emphasis on the role of the Simulation IPT and its relationships to other project entities. This discussion will include a description of work packages assigned to the Simulation IPT, and present the specific goals to be achieved for each simulation work package, along with the associated deliverables necessary to achieve these goals and the needs of other Access 5 IPTs. The simulation environment chosen for this task is then outlined. This section includes a description of the system architecture, a list of the necessary assumptions made by the Simulation IPT, and the roles, responsibilities and interactions of simulation participants. The method of simulation conduct is presented in the next section with particular emphasis on scenario development and applicability to evaluation of Step 1 HALE-ROA operations. Following, data collection and analysis methods are discussed for air traffic specialists and air vehicle control station operators. Lastly, a schedule of Step 1 simulation activities is presented for reference.

Source record↗

Safe Operations at Roadway Junctions: Intelligent Roadway Infrastructure as Functional Interlocking

Automated vehicle (AV) technology is quickly maturing, and the corresponding infrastructure systems that evaluate traffic and communicate to vehicles requires sophisticated sensing and perception technologies, referred to as intelligent roadway infrastructure (IRI), to complement emerging AV capabilities. IRI provides signals to vehicles, indicating right-of-way for vehicles and communicating to approaching AVs that no other vehicle is failing to yield. This capability, denoted as safety-affirmative signaling, provides a green light or a green arrow as appropriate and affirms through communication links to connected vehicles when it is safe to proceed. About 36% of collisions occur at intersections, with most occurring upon left turns (22.2%) or crossing over (12.6%), and only a small percentage (1.2%) while turning right at an intersection. Of all intersection crashes about half (52.5%) of those vehicles were traveling through a signalized intersection 2. Safety-affirmative signaling would guarantee safety of AV fleet vehicles, by providing the interlocking principle, a term from automated train control that only allows progression through a railway intersection after affirming no opportunity for a crash exists. IRI through safety-affirmative signaling would bring performance and safety to complex roadway intersections where AV transit fleet service is most needed, as well as safety benefits to traditional, non-automated vehicles and vulnerable road users. The implementation of IRI has functional, programmatic, and technical challenges. Research work performed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in an integrative approach encapsulating these themes, and termed infrastructure perception and control (IPC) is motivated by improved performance (travel time), improved safety (reduced collisions), and improved energy efficiency (less fuel burned and minimized production of greenhouse gases). IPC is intended not only for roadway and intersection applications but also in extension to inform complementary buildings and grid systems to enable better co-management, as vehicles and their charging needs become increasingly integrated into the built environment. The NREL IPC project presents an open-source framework, architecture, and supporting technology to implement IRI, addressing critical issues such as fusion of data, reliability, standardization of data interfaces, and confidence of detection. The framework is informed by previous experience in U.S. Department of Defense research technology, specifically in the use of radar to detect, identify, and track aerial threats. These principles combined with multi-sensor fusion provides for a complete digital twin with known and measurable confidence and accuracy from which safety-affirmative signaling can be developed and deployed.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts

ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried out reliably with such existing capabilities and (3) the currently unavailable modeling capabilities that should receive high priority for near-term research and development. It should be emphasized that the study is concerned only with the class of 'fast time' analytical and simulation models. 'Real time' models, that typically involve humans-in-the-loop, comprise another extensive class which is not addressed in this report. However, the relationship between some of the fast-time models reviewed and a few well-known real-time models is identified in several parts of this report and the potential benefits from the combined use of these two classes of models-a very important subject-are discussed in chapters 4 and 7.

Odoni, Amedeo R.↗

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Comparing Ecological Risk between D and D Facilities and Operating Facilities at the Hanford Site - 19531

Many countries are faced with a large remediation task resulting from World War II, the Cold War, and subsequent industrial development. In the U.S. the Department of Energy (DOE) faces the largest hazardous waste remediation tasks, with a commitment to protect human health and the environment during and following remediation. DoE's biggest challenge is remediation of the many remaining cleanup areas at the Hanford Site, Washington. Some Hanford sites have extensive ecological resources and ecosystems that require protection or restoration. We briefly 1) describe a rapid evaluation method for ecological resources on units slated for cleanup that allows comparison among the different areas at the Hanford Site, 2) examine some D4 (deactivation, decommissioning, decontamination and demolition) facilities and Operating facilities that require remediation, 3) describe potential ecological harm to resources on these sites, and 4) compare how risks from potential harm vary at the Hanford Site. The ecological evaluation includes three phases: 1) general steps (identify resource categories, identify cleanup areas), 2) ecological descriptions (describe resources on the site to be cleaned up), and 3) ecological ratings (rate the value of the resources on a scale that can be applied across remediation sites). After completion of these steps for the sites requiring cleanup, a comparison of potential risks can be made among types of facilities (e.g. D4 facilities, legacy waste sites, operating facilities). D4 facilities are those slated for deactivation, decommissioning, decontamination and demolition, while operating facilities at Hanford include waste treatment plants, sludge basins, waste trenches, Central Waste Complex, storage facilities, and disposal facilities, among others required to support the D4 and other remediation activities, before they too are remediated. Currently the potential harm to ecological (and eco-cultural) resources on the Hanford Site for remediation at D4 facilities is very low, but increases to very high (for reactors) during remediation when there is physical disruption, increased traffic and personnel, and possible increased contamination. Following remediation, the potential harm to ecological resources is low, and the value may increase due to restoration of native vegetation on sites that were largely industrial prior to remediation. In contrast, the potential harm to ecological resources at Operating Facilities was higher currently than for D4 facilities, but was low to medium following cleanup. The higher harm (risk) at D4 facilities partly derives from the location of the reactors near the Columbia River, a resource extremely important to Tribal Nations and to other peoples in the Northwestern United States, as well as for the iconic and threatened salmon populations. Methods described in this paper provide Congress, DOE managers, regulators, Tribes, and the general public with assurance that ecological and eco-cultural resources and the environment are being protected during and following remediation. The analysis of specific sites provides managers, regulators and the public with information to make cost-effective decisions about remediation that continues to enhance ecological value while protecting human health. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗