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Achieving Improved Reliability with Failure Analysis

Reliability is the ability of a product to properly function, within specified performance limits, for a specified period of time, under the life cycle application conditions. Failure analysis is a vital tool in the effort to ensure reliability of electronic products and systems throughout their product lifecycle. Today, organizations involved in activities within the electronics supply chain are facing new challenges, not just from complex assembly styles, harsher lifecycle environments, and sophisticated supply chains, but also from customers who are demanding a quicker turn-around. Unfortunately, root cause failure analysis is often performed incompletely, leading to a poor understanding of failure mechanisms and causes and, customer dissatisfaction due to recurring failures. The PDC (Professional Development Course) starts with an introduction to reliability concepts, physics of failure and an overview of failure mechanisms that affect PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards), PCBAs (Printed Circuit Board Assembly) and components. The PDC then dives into root cause hypothesizing techniques (Pareto, FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis), fishbone (Cause-And-Effect Diagram), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis)), non-destructive and destructive analysis and, materials characterization will be discussed. Numerous failure analysis case studies will be used to illustrate the techniques and analysis principles to arrive at the root cause(s) of field failures on printed circuit boards, active components, and assemblies. What Attendees will Learn: Topics include: Overview of Reliability Concepts Failure mechanisms of electronic products Root cause analysis Failure analysis techniques -Non-destructive techniques (optical, CSAM (Confocal Scanning Electron Microscopy) etc.) -Destructive analysis (DPA (Destructive Physical Analysis), Decap (Decapsulation), FIB (Focused Ion Beam) etc.) -Materials characterization (XRF (X-Ray Fluorescence) , EDS (Error Detection Sequential), TMA/DSC (Thermal Mechanical Analysis/Differential Scanning Calorimetry) etc.)

PCB quality↗

Knowledge Discovery for Early Failure Assessment of Complex Engineered Systems Using Natural Language Processing

Emerging complex engineered systems may have unexpected safety issues due to novel operational environments, increasing autonomy, human-machine interaction, and other factors. To prevent failures in operation or testing that necessitate costly redesign, it is desirable to predict likely failure modes early in the design process. Information about past engineering failures in natural language format presents one possible solution by enabling the retrieval of information that can inform new designs. However, identifying documents containing usable information and extracting the required information can be prohibitively time-consuming when implemented at scale. In this research, an automated natural language processing (NLP) framework is proposed to discover relevant knowledge from documents containing failure-related design information. The framework is applied to NASA’s Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS),which is publicly available. Documents containing usable information are filtered using two different NLP-based models. Next, from the identified usable documents, a failure taxonomy is extracted using a partitioned hierarchical topic modeling approach. Partitions of the document describe different sections of the failure taxonomy – i.e., failure, cause of failure, and recommendations – as indicated by the structure of the original document. The extracted failure taxonomy can be leveraged in early design failure assessment methods. Moreover, the framework can be used to identify documents containing usable failure-related design information from other databases and extract relevant information from these documents.

Documentation and Information Science↗

Knowledge Discovery for Early Failure Assessment of Complex Engineered Systems Using Natural Language Processing

Emerging complex engineered systems may have unexpected safety issues due to novel operational environments, increasing autonomy, human-machine interaction, and other factors. To prevent failures in operation or testing that necessitate costly redesign, it is desirable to predict likely failure modes early in the design process. Information about past engineering failures in natural language format presents one possible solution by enabling the retrieval of information that can inform new designs. However, identifying documents containing usable information and extracting the required information can be prohibitively time-consuming when implemented at scale. In this research, an automated natural language processing (NLP) framework is proposed to discover relevant knowledge from documents containing failure-related design information. The framework is applied to NASA’s Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS),which is publicly available. Documents containing usable information are filtered using two different NLP-based models. Next, from the identified usable documents, a failure taxonomy is extracted using a partitioned hierarchical topic modeling approach. Partitions of the document describe different sections of the failure taxonomy – i.e., failure, cause of failure, and recommendations – as indicated by the structure of the original document. The extracted failure taxonomy can be leveraged in early design failure assessment methods. Moreover, the framework can be used to identify documents containing usable failure-related design information from other databases and extract relevant information from these documents.

Documentation and Information Science↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗

Printed Circuit Board Inspection and Quality Control - PCB Failure Causes and Cures

This two day workshop will discuss a range of topics, including root cause analysis, physics-of-failure principles and failure mechanisms in printed circuit boards. Printed circuit boards (PCBs) are the baseline for electronics manufacturing upon which electronic components are mounted and formed into electronic systems. PCBs are used in a variety of electronic circuits from simple one-transistor amplifiers to large super computers. A PCB serves three main functions: 1) it provides the necessary mechanical support for the components in the circuit 2) it provides the necessary electrical interconnections, and 3) it bears some form of legend which identifies the components it carries. The failure modes on the PCBs can be categorized in a hierarchical structure, in which the mechanisms and causes are site or location dependant. Specimen preparation techniques, non-destructive and destructive analysis, and materials characterization will also be discussed. The first day of the workshop will present methodologies for identifying potential failure mechanisms in electronics based on the failure history and, systematic approaches to root cause analysis. The second day will cover failure analysis techniques geared towards various failure mechanisms, along with numerous component and PCB assembly failure analysis case studies that illustrate the techniques and analysis. Failure analysis case studies will be used to illustrate the techniques and analysis principles to arrive at the root cause(s) of field failures on printed circuit boards, active components, and assemblies.

Printed circuit boards↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

Discovery and Analysis of Rare High-Impact Failure Modes using Adversarial RL-Informed Sampling

Adaptive learning agents have tremendous potential to handle critical tasks currently performed by humans. Unfortunately, due to their complexity, it can be difficult to verify that these learning agents do not have critical failure modes. Standard verification and validation methods often do not apply directly to learning agents and Monte Carlo methods have difficulty covering even a small fraction of the state space, especially in multiagent systems or over long time horizons. To overcome this difficulty, we demonstrate an adaptive stress-testing method based on reinforcement learning of correlations that raise the probability of failure. This approach has three key properties: (1) it is able to find rare failure modes with far greater sample efficiency than Monte Carlo methods, (2) it can estimate the true probability of a failure mode despite the inherent bias in the learning method, and (3) it is capable of learning and resampling compact representations of multimodal failure spaces. These properties are important in practice as we need to find disparate failure modes while accounting for their actual relevance. This is a significant advantage over traditional adaptive stress testing methods that give abstract likelihoods of particular failure instances, but cannot estimate the probability of a broader failure mode. We test our algorithm on a simple problem from the aviation domain where an autonomous aircraft lands in gusty wind conditions. The results suggest that we can find failure modes with far fewer samples than the Monte Carlo approach and simultaneously estimate the probability of failure.

reinforcement learning↗

Assessment of Cladding-Cladding Delamination Failures in U-Mo Fuel Plates

Monolithic fuel is a candidate fuel form for the conversion of high-performance research reactors. This plate-type fuel consists of a high-density, U-Mo alloy-based fuel in a monolithic form that is sandwiched between zirconium diffusion barriers and encapsulated in an aluminum cladding. To qualify this fuel system, the program must demonstrate that the fuel meets the safety standards, has a predictable behavior, and performs well in a reactor. Although many plates have shown satisfactory thermo-mechanical performance in reactor, a small number of experimental plates exhibited failures, rendering performance of these plates unacceptable. Post-irradiation examinations of failed plates have revealed that various failures modes are present, including pillowing, blistering, buckling, warping, delamination, fracture, rupture, oxide spallation, etc. Previous studies have implied that such various operational and loading conditions could generate a complex stress-strain state, facilitating distinct failure modes that could impact the structural integrity. To understand such various failure modes, a comprehensive set of studies focusing on failure modes is being performed. As a part of these studies, this work studies the cladding-cladding separation failures that were observed in some of previous irradiation tests. To understand the root cause of cladding separation failures, selected plates from previous irradiation experiments were simulated under comparable operational conditions. Stress-strain state of the plates at the interface were examined. The results were comparatively evaluated to understand possible effects of stress state of the bond-line on delamination failures. This paper presents these findings, discusses such failure modes, and examines the influence of various factors on previously observed cladding delamination failures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert

Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prognostic model and failure mechanisms of steam generators in Sodium-Cooled fast reactors

This paper presents a prognostic model for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) steam generators (SGs). Here, the purpose of the model is to estimate the remaining useful life of SFR SGs and thus to support the decision-making of autonomous control. SFR SGs are of great interest for plant integrity due to their harsh operation environment. They operate at higher temperatures and higher coolant-to-steam pressure differences than those of current light water reactors (LWR). The severity of the SFR SG failure consequences, which include water-sodium contact, is another reason. Understanding its failure mechanisms is important for the development of its prognostic model. Based on our literature review and physics-based analysis, we concluded that creep would be a dominant degradation mode of SFR SGs due to SFR’s high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Thus, creep is the focus of the prognostic model. Various other failure modes were also investigated in this study. The mechanical fatigue due to flow-induced vibration is usually observed in early developmental phases and would not be an important issue during normal operation. The thermal fatigue due to thermal stripping is occasionally observed in other components in SFRs but does not affect SG integrity. Pure water stress corrosive crack, fretting, and so on are commonly observed in LWR SGs but are significantly less important in SFR SGs because of the high temperatures, high pressure differences, and chemical properties of liquid sodium. Based on these investigations, a prognostic model focusing on creep failures was developed. It estimates the failure probability profile by sampling the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) and temperature and associated uncertainties through Monte Carlo methods. Two case studies were presented. The first one demonstrated the model’s capability to calculate the failure probability for a new specimen within a given time. If the tube is working under temperatures of 500C ± 3 and pressures of 15.2 MPa, which leads to LMP of 20,100 ± 50, the failure probabilities within 50, 70, and 90 years are approximately 0.1 %, 3.2 %, and 17.5 %. The second demonstrated how adjusting the workload can help to protect the integrity of the component. For an old tube reaching 99 % of its lifespan, continuing to run at temperatures of 500C ± 3 and LMP of 20,100 ± 50 leads to a failure probability of about 29.0 % within a year. If the temperature is reduced by 5C, the failure probability can be reduced to 2.5 %, and, if the pressure is also reduced such that the LMP is increased by 100, the failure probability can further be reduced to 0.12 %.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Experiments and modelling of adhesive failure initiation of an epoxy underfill: a study of electronic packaging survivability

Epoxy underfills can be implemented in electronic packaging to enhance solder joint reliability of surface mounted components. However, it is important for an engineer to have a failure criterion that can be used for failure predictions and redesign of electronic assemblies. For this study, data from epoxy bond failure in mock electronic part assemblies were correlated to finite element analyses to predict adhesive failure initiation. Experiments were performed to determine failure loads for various loading locations and nonlinear viscoelastic analyses were performed for the same loading locations to determine a maximum principal strain failure parameter. Predictions showed that a maximum principal strain failure parameter defined from one test could be used as an indicator of adhesive failure of an epoxy bond undergoing other modes of loading. Failure initiation predictions matched experimental data using a maximum principal strain failure parameter for an epoxy bond undergoing mixed modes of loading for both unfilled and alumina oxide filled 828DEA epoxy. Such experimental setup is deemed appropriate for future epoxy testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensor failure and multivariable control for airbreathing propulsion systems

A new sensor/actuator failure analysis technique for turbofan jet engines was developed. Three phases of failure analysis, namely detection, isolation, and accommodation are considered. Failure detection and isolation techniques are developed by utilizing the concept of Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR) tests. These techniques are applicable to both time varying and time invariant systems. Three GLR detectors are developed for: (1) hard-over sensor failure; (2) hard-over actuator failure; and (3) brief disturbances in the actuators. The probability distribution of the GLR detectors and the detectability of sensor/actuator failures are established. Failure type is determined by the maximum of the GLR detectors. Failure accommodation is accomplished by extending the Multivariable Nyquest Array (MNA) control design techniques to nonsquare system designs. The performance and effectiveness of the failure analysis technique are studied by applying the technique to a turbofan jet engine, namely the Quiet Clean Short Haul Experimental Engine (QCSEE). Single and multiple sensor/actuator failures in the QCSEE are simulated and analyzed and the effects of model degradation are studied.

Behbehani, K.↗

The evaluation of failure detection and isolation algorithms for restructurable control

Three failure detection and identification techniques were compared to determine their usefulness in detecting and isolating failures in an aircraft flight control system; excluding sensor and flight control computer failures. The algorithms considered were the detection filter, the Generalized Likelihood Ratio test and the Orthogonal Series Generalized Likelihood Ratio test. A modification to the basic detection filter is also considered which uses secondary filtering of the residuals to produce unidirectional failure signals. The algorithms were evaluated by testing their ability to detect and isolate control surface failures in a nonlinear simulation of a C-130 aircraft. It was found that failures of some aircraft controls are difficult to distinguish because they have a similar effect on the dynamics of the vehicle. Quantitative measures for evaluating the distinguishability of failures are considered. A system monitoring strategy for implementing the failure detection and identification techniques was considered. This strategy identified the mix of direct measurement of failures versus the computation of failure necessary for implementation of the technology in an aircraft system.

Motyka, P.↗

Characteristics of Space Shuttle Main Engine failures

During development and operation of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), 27 ground test failures of sufficient severity to be termed 'major incident' have occurred. Resourecs including NASA Failure Investigation Board reports, contractor failure reports, originally recorded data, along with engineering notes, data bases, and presentations connected with the failures were available for compilation into the engine failure review presented in this paper. Most SSME failures were a result of design deficiencies stemming from inadequate definition of dynamic loads. High cycle fatigue was the most frequent mechanism leading to failure. Eighteen of the 27 failures occurred during constant power level operation. Formal board reports were not available for all failures. Therefore, the failure history presented in this paper is not complete or of uniform quality.

Cikanek, Harry A., III↗

Postbuckling failure of composite plates with holes

This paper summarizes a study focused on understanding the failure mechanisms present in a plate with a centrally located circular hole loaded inplane into the postbuckling range of deflections. The study was numerical and experimental in nature and had as a goal the a priori prediction of failure using existing failure data from several sources, together with a stress analysis. The maximum stress failure criterion was used to predict failure and both intra- and interlaminar stresses were considered. Four laminates were considered. The phenomenon of modal interaction, or the jumping from one deformed configuration to another, is discussed. With this jumping, the plate configuration may change from one half-wave in the loading direction to two half-waves in the loading direction. The study concludes that the failure in (+/-45/0/90)2s and (+/-45/2(2))2s laminates is due to fiber compression failure and is predictable. The failure load is, for the most part, independent of response configuration. The (+/-45/0/(6))s laminate fails due to interlaminar shear along the simple support, while the response and failure of the (+/-45)4s laminate is governed to a large degree by material nonlinearities and progressive failure.

Lee, H. H.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

Evaluation of a Linear Cumulative Damage Failure Model for Epoxy Adhesive

Recently a significant amount of work has been conducted to provide more complex and accurate material models for use in the evaluation of adhesive bondlines. Some of this has been prompted by recent studies into the effects of residual stresses on the integrity of bondlines. Several techniques have been developed for the analysis of bondline residual stresses. Key to these analyses is the criterion that is used for predicting failure. Residual stress loading of an adhesive bondline can occur over the life of the component. For many bonded systems, this can be several years. It is impractical to directly characterize failure of adhesive bondlines under a constant load for several years. Therefore, alternative approaches for predictions of bondline failures are required. In the past, cumulative damage failure models have been developed. These models have ranged from very simple to very complex. This paper documents the generation and evaluation of some of the most simple linear damage accumulation tensile failure models for an epoxy adhesive. This paper shows how several variations on the failure model were generated and presents an evaluation of the accuracy of these failure models in predicting creep failure of the adhesive. The paper shows that a simple failure model can be generated from short-term failure data for accurate predictions of long-term adhesive performance.

Richardson, David E.↗