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Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.

biased sampling↗

Biosignatures in the Context of Low Energy Flux

Many of the features that are thought of as biosignatures - including the mediation of chemical and physical processes with speed, specificity, and selectivity - result directly or indirectly from life's unique capability to mediate and direct energy flux. As such, it is important to consider the impact that differences in energy flux may have on the quantity and quality of evidence for life. Earth differs from every other body in our solar system in the magnitude of biologically-usable energy flux into a liquid water environment. On a global basis, the capture of light energy into photosynthesis and the flux of chemical energy represented in the products of that photosynthesis (organic material + O2) are about six and four orders of magnitude larger, respectively, than the flux of energy represented in geochemical sources. Our conception of what an inhabited world "looks like" and our intuition about how to search for life are based in this high-energy context. Energy fluxes on worlds beyond Earth may be better approximated by the million-fold smaller flux provided to Earth's biosphere by geochemical sources. As a result, the nature, abundance, and quality of evidence for life that could be expected on an inhabited extraterrestrial world within our solar system may differ profoundly from that found on Earth. Understanding this potential difference in quantitative terms provides important context for the formulation of life detection strategies. The influence of energy flux on biosignatures can be evaluated through reference to the two basic purposes into which life partitions energy flux: (1) Life expends energy to sustain existing biomass in a metabolic steady state (metabolically functional but non-growing). The formal representation of this relationship in the traditional microbiology literature equates biomass directly with energy flux. The direct implication is that worlds having lower energy flux will have correspondingly lower potential to support biomass. Life detection strategies that directly target extant organisms should therefore be prepared to encounter average biomass densities that may be many orders of magnitude smaller than those found in most of Earth's surface environments (2) Life expends energy to synthesize new biomass. An end-member case in which new biomass is created at the energy-limited rate and the corresponding cells are immediately destroyed (so that the energy partitioned to cell maintenance is minimized) establishes an upper bound on the rate at which biological material can enter a bulk global pool. For a specified bulk concentration [i] of any particular biological compound, i, or for biologically produced matter overall, this synthesis rate, R (sub i), defines a characteristic time scale tau (sub i) equals [i] divided by R (sub i). tau (sub i) can be thought of as (a) the minimum time required for biosynthesis to yield a specific bulk concentration (e.g., a detection threshold) of i, and (b) the average residence time of i within a bulk pool when [i] is held in steady state through a balance between biosynthesis and attrition by physical, chemical, or biological consumption. tau (sub i) becomes an important quantity in considering the potential utility of enantiomeric excess (as a product of homochiral biosynthesis) as a biosignature. Spontaneous racemization of amino acids acts to "erase" the signature of homochiral synthesis over time scales that may range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years, depending on temperature. For environments in which low energy flux translates to low rates of biosynthesis, including the synthesis of homochiral amino acids, amino acid residence times in pools having detectable concentrations may compare to or significantly exceed the time scale for racemization. This and similar consequences of long residence times should be considered in the formulation of life detection strategies based on detection of biologically-produced species. Fluxes of biologically-useful energy on potentially habitable worlds within our solar system are, at present, not well constrained. Improving such constraint has the potential to inform priorities in the formulation and targeting of search-for-life strategies, based on the implications of energy flux for the abundance and quality of biosignatures overall, and in specific categories.

ENERGY FLUX↗

EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations

This paper presents a new solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) flux model for aeronomic calulations (EUVAC), which is based on the measured F74113 solar EUV reference spectrum. The model provides fluxes in the 37 wavelength bins that are in widespread use. This paper also presents cross sections to be used with the EUVAC flux model to calculate photoionization rates. The flux scaling for solar activity is accomplished using a proxy-based on the F10.7 index and its 81-day average together with the measured solar flux variation from the EUVS instrument on the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite. This new model produces 50-575 A integrated EUV fluxes in good agreement with rocket observations. The solar cycle variation of the chromospheric fluxes agrees well with the measured variation of the Lyman alpha flux between 1982 and 1988. In addition, the theoretical photoelectron fluxes, calculated using the new EUV flux model, are in good agreement with the solar minimum photoelectron fluxes from the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite and also with the solar maximum photoelectron fluxes from the Dynamics Explorer satellite. Its relative simplicity coupled with its ability to reproduce the 50-575 A solar EUV flux as well as the measured photoelectron spectrum makes the model well suited for aeronomic applications. However, EUVAC is not designed to accurately predict the solar flux variability for numerous individual lines.

Richards, P. G.↗

Evidence for X-ray flux and spectral modulation by absorption in NGC 6814. 1: The nature of the most rapid variability

The Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 6814 was observed using the Japanese X-ray astronomy satellite Ginga in 1990 April and October. The rapid variability characteristically associated with this source was reconfirmed. Specifically, three dips were found in the April observation in which the flux dropped to nearly zero in approximately 300 s. The doubling timescale was approximately 50 s. A similar but separated drop and rise in flux was observed in the October data, different in that the flux did not decrease completely to zero. A detailed analysis of the data around the structures of most rapid variability found spectral variability and lags in flux between different energy bands. Lags were on the order of a few to tens of seconds for the April data, and on the order of tens to a couple of hundred seconds for the October data. The sense of the lags was such that during flux decreases the hard flux lagged, while during flux increases the soft flux lagged. Associated significant apparent hardening of the spectrum at low flux was observed in the April data. Apparent hardening of the spectrum also occurred in the October flux decrease, to a photon index of GAMMA = 0.85; however, the spectrum softened at lowest flux to the index of the predecrease level, GAMMA = 1.54. In the April dips, the line flux was found to decrease significantly. A marginal decrease in line flux was also observed in the October data. The variability of the line flux reconfirmed the result of Kunieda et al. (1990), who found that the line production region must be within approximately 300 light-seconds from the source. To explain the observational results, a variable-absorption model was proposed, in which the column density was assumed to vary as a function of time. Other physical processes, including intrinsic spectral changes and warm absorber models, which could account for the fastest variability, could be ruled out by the results of the data analysis. A primary constraint found for geometrical models is that the material which is doing the absorption must have relatively low ionization (xi less than 100). This result leads to severe constraints on a general orbiting cloud model, requiring high densities (n approximately 10(exp 16)/cu cm) and sheetlike geometry.

Leighly, Karen↗

How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Defining Top-of-Atmosphere Flux Reference Level for Earth Radiation Budget Studies

To estimate the earth's radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from satellite-measured radiances, it is necessary to account for the finite geometry of the earth and recognize that the earth is a solid body surrounded by a translucent atmosphere of finite thickness that attenuates solar radiation differently at different heights. As a result, in order to account for all of the reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation from the planet by direct integration of satellite-measured radiances, the measurement viewing geometry must be defined at a reference level well above the earth s surface (e.g., 100 km). This ensures that all radiation contributions, including radiation escaping the planet along slant paths above the earth s tangent point, are accounted for. By using a field-of- view (FOV) reference level that is too low (such as the surface reference level), TOA fluxes for most scene types are systematically underestimated by 1-2 W/sq m. In addition, since TOA flux represents a flow of radiant energy per unit area, and varies with distance from the earth according to the inverse-square law, a reference level is also needed to define satellite-based TOA fluxes. From theoretical radiative transfer calculations using a model that accounts for spherical geometry, the optimal reference level for defining TOA fluxes in radiation budget studies for the earth is estimated to be approximately 20 km. At this reference level, there is no need to explicitly account for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the atmosphere in the earth radiation budget calculation. In this context, therefore, the 20-km reference level corresponds to the effective radiative top of atmosphere for the planet. Although the optimal flux reference level depends slightly on scene type due to differences in effective transmission of solar radiation with cloud height, the difference in flux caused by neglecting the scene-type dependence is less than 0.1%. If an inappropriate TOA flux reference level is used to define satellite TOA fluxes, and horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the planet is not accounted for in the radiation budget equation, systematic errors in net flux of up to 8 W/sq m can result. Since climate models generally use a plane-parallel model approximation to estimate TOA fluxes and the earth radiation budget, they implicitly assume zero horizontal transmission of solar radiation in the radiation budget equation, and do not need to specify a flux reference level. By defining satellite-based TOA flux estimates at a 20-km flux reference level, comparisons with plane-parallel climate model calculations are simplified since there is no need to explicitly correct plane-parallel climate model fluxes for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through a finite earth.

Loeb, N. G.↗

The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.

Biosphere↗

Laboratory-Based Thermal Shock Investigation of Heat Flux Sensors for the Mars 2020 Backshell

In 2012 during the entry, descent, and landing of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), the MSL Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI) sensor suite was collecting in-flight heatshield pressure and temperature data. The data collected by the MEDLI instruments has since been used for reconstruction of vehicle aerodynamics, atmospheric conditions, aerothermal heating, and Thermal Protection System (TPS) performance as well as material response model validation and refinement. The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite for the Mars 2020 heatshield and backshell is being designed to expand on the measurements and knowledge gained from MEDLI. Similar to MEDLI, MEDLI2 will measure the pressure and temperature of the heatshield. MEDLI2 will additionally measure the temperature, pressure, total heat flux, and radiative heat flux on the backshell.Since the backshell instrumentation is new to MEDLI2, Do No Harm (DNH) testing was conducted on instrumented backshell TPS (SLA-561V) panels. The panels consisted of four pressure port holes, one Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) pressure port plug, one MEDLI2 Integrated Sensor Plug (MISP) thermal plug, and one heat flux sensor. DNH testing was conducted to ensure the performance of the TPS was not degraded due to sensor integration and to characterize any TPS performance changes. The testing consisted of environmental testing— vibration, shock, thermal vacuum (TVAC) cycling— and bounding aerothermal (arc jet) testing. During arc jet testing, the heat flux sensors embedded in the SLA-561V panels exhibited an unexpected temporary reduction in the heat flux sensor temperature and response. After review of the test results, it was determined that this unexpected response was confined to the two heat flux sensors that experienced the greatest thermal shock condition. This condition consisted of a liquid nitrogen (LN2) bath that induced temperatures of approximately -190°C, and then a transition (thermal shock) to an arc jet test at a heat rate of approximately 21 W/cm2. Both heat flux sensors that were exposed to this thermal shock experienced a blister in the thermal coating during the arc jet test.Two heat flux sensor thermal shock test series were performed to investigate the cause of the blistering and subsequent energy release. In these tests, the heat flux sensor was first cold soaked in either a dry ice or LN2 bath to induce temperatures of approximately -78°C or -190°C, respectively. Then the sensors were thermally shocked using two propane torches with a heat rate of either approximately 8 W/cm2 or 21 W/cm2. The key findings indicated that there is a correlation between thermal shock and the blistering observed in the DNH test series, and that the cause appeared to be rooted in the heat flux sensor epoxy that encapsulates the sensor thermopile.Since the heat flux sensors are required to measure heat fluxes up to 15 W/cm2 during the Mars 2020 entry, a third test series was designed to determine if blistering is an issue at this maximum expected flight heat flux. Results from all three thermal shock test series and a discussion about whether or not blistering of the heat flux sensor thermal coating could be an issue for the Mars 2020 mission will be presented.

Miller, R. A.↗

Improved GEO Derived LW Broadband Fluxes for the Edition5 CERES SYN1Deg Data Product

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides over 24 years of accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) and surface flux data record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. The major level-3 data products include SSF1deg, SYN1deg, FluxByCldTyp, and EBAF data. The CERES SYN1deg product provides 1° gridded observed TOA fluxes and computed surface fluxes based on hourly GEO clouds and derived broadband TOA fluxes. The hourly GEO derived fluxes fill in the temporal gaps between the Terra and Aqua CERES observations. In order to maintain a climate quality dataset the GEO cloud and flux retrievals are consistent over the record. The CERES project is preparing for Edition 5 product providing an opportunity to improve the GEO flux retrieval algorithms. To achieve this, the GEO satellite channel radiances are calibrated against the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. For SW the GEO channel radiances are then converted to broadband radiances using empirical and theoretical models. The SW broadband radiances are then converted to fluxes using the same CERES angular directional models. For LW the GEO channel radiances are directly converted to LW fluxes utilizing empirical models. The resulting GEO derived broadband fluxes are then normalized to the CERES fluxes regionally by regressing the instantaneous coincident flux pairs. The normalized GEO fluxes are then tied to the CERES instrument calibration, which is very stable over time. This study will attempt to improve the GEO derived LW fluxes based on machine learning technique for the future Edition5 SYN1deg data product.

Moguo Sun↗

Profiles of Radiative Fluxes at ENA

Profiles of radiative fluxes observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory along with the ancillary measurements are reported. The below-cloud drizzle properties were derived by combining the data from the ceilometer and Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) following the technique explained by Ghate et al. (2021 JAMC). The cloud and drizzle water path values were derived from the brightness temperatures reported by the microwave radiometer following the technique of Cadeddu et al. (2020 AMT). The cloud water path was then scaled to the KAZR-reported radar reflectivity to calculate profiles of liquid water content (LWC). Following the analysis from Ghate et al. (2023 JGR), cloud droplet effective radius was calculated using the number concentration value of 100 cm-3. The cloud properties, along with the thermodynamic properties, served as an input to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) to yield profiles of radiative fluxes at a 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution. The fluxes were then averaged to hourly temporal resolution for analysis. In Mitra et al. (2025 JClim), the calculated profiles were compared against those derived from the satellite measurements (SYN1deg). Flux profiles from the SYN1deg and the thermodynamic and cloud properties used for deriving them are also reported here. Both all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux profiles were calculated. Due to the large data volume, the surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the six-year period, and the hourly profiles of the radiative fluxes for January 2018, are submitted here. Full profiles of radiative fluxes calculated from the thermodynamic and cloud properties measured at the ENA site at 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution for a six-year period are available from the authors. Six files here correspond to the following data: 1_ENARAD_CERES_with_cld_amount_timeseries.nc: Time-series of hourly values of RRTM-simulated values of upwelling and downwelling fluxes at the surface and TOA, observed boundary-layer cloud fractions, and upwelling and downwelling fluxes from the SYN1deg from July 2015 to January 2022. 2_CERES_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: SYN1deg radiative fluxes at six levels for the year 2018. 3_ENARad_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: RRTM calculated fluxes at the SYN1deg vertical levels for the year 2018. 4_ENARad_rrtminputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties used as an input to the RRTM for January 2018. 5_CERES_inputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties utilized by SYN1deg algorithm for January 2018. 6_ENARAD_hourly_201801.nc: Full profiles of hourly averaged radiative fluxes from the RRTM simulations for January 2018.

Atmosphere↗

Automated Optical Meteor Fluxes and Preliminary Results of Major Showers

NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) recently established a two‐station system to calculate daily automated meteor fluxes in the millimeter‐size‐range for both single‐station and double‐station meteors. The cameras each consist of a 17 mm focal length Schneider lens (f/0.95) on a Watec 902H2 Ultimate CCD video camera, producing a 21.7x15.5 degree field of view. This configuration sees meteors down to a magnitude of +6. This paper outlines the concepts of the system, the hardware and software, and results of 3,000+ orbits from the first 18 months of operations. Video from the cameras are run through ASGARD (All Sky and Guided Automatic Real‐time Detection), which performs the meteor detection/photometry, and invokes MILIG and MORB (Borovicka 1990) codes to determine the trajectory, speed, and orbit of the meteor. A subroutine in ASGARD allows for approximate shower identification in single‐station detections. The ASGARD output is used in routines to calculate the flux. Before a flux can be calculated, a weather algorithm indicates if sky conditions are clear enough to calculate fluxes, at which point a limiting magnitude algorithm is employed. The limiting stellar magnitude is found using astrometry.net (Lang et al. 2012) to identify stars and translated to the corresponding shower and sporadic limiting meteor magnitude. It is found every 10 minutes and is able to react to quickly changing sky conditions. The extensive testing of these results on the Geminids and Eta Aquariids is shown. The flux involves dividing the number of meteors by the collecting area of the system, over the time interval for which that collecting area is valid. The flux algorithm employed here differs from others currently in use in that it does not make the gross oversimplication of choosing a single height to calculate the collection area of the system. In the MEO system, the volume is broken up into a set of height intervals, with the collecting areas determined by the position of the active shower or sporadic source radiant. The flux per height interval is calculated and summed to obtain the total meteor flux. Both single station and double station fluxes are currently found daily. Geminid fluxes on the peak night in 2012 (12‐14‐2012) were 0.058 meteors/km2/hr as found with double‐station meteors and 0.057 meteors/ km2/hr as found with single‐station meteors, to a limiting magnitude of +6.5. Both of those numbers are in agreement with the well‐calibrated fluxes from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. Along with flux algorithms and initial flux results, presented will be results from the first 18 months of operation, covering 3,000+ meteoroid orbits.

Blaauw, R.↗

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Poynting Flux at DMSP and Modeled Joule Heat

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗

Towards a More Realistic Representation of NASA CERES-derived Surface Radiative Fluxes during Polar Night: A Comparison with the MOSAiC Field Campaign

The Arctic is one of the most sensitive regions of Earth to climate change, and yet remains one of the more difficult regions to both observe and simulate. The remoteness of the Arctic from most of civilization makes large volumes of in situ observations difficult to collect, and so satellite observations are a critical tool for observing the region, such as those from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). But validating the satellite radiative flux estimates is difficult because of the lack of in situ measurements. A useful remedy is utilizing measurements from field campaigns, such as the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition during 2019-2020. The extensive high-quality surface radiative flux and meteorological measurements collected from MOSAiC provide a useful check on flux retrievals from CERES instruments. We compare MOSAiC and CERES surface radiative fluxes during October through March of 2019-2020. As this time period is mostly during polar night and twilight, the focus of the study is on longwave surface fluxes. To better understand the reasons for errors in CERES fluxes, we use the large set of meteorological measurements also collected by MOSAiC, including surface temperature, thermodynamic vertical profiles, surface turbulent fluxes, and cloud properties. Previous work identified a significant source of error in the CERES estimate of surface downwelling longwave flux as the estimate of low level cloud amount when compared with MOSAiC W-band radar measurements. An overestimate of low cloud amount yielded an underestimate of the downwelling flux on the order of tens of W m2. Continuing this work, we test other meteorological properties such as the vertical thermodynamic profile and surface turbulent fluxes. In addition, we examine different estimates of surface fluxes derived from CERES measurements. Previous work used the SYN1deg product, which had the limitation of having a 1º x 1 º horizontal resolution. A newer product estimates the surface fluxes at the CERES footprint resolution, which allows a more precise colocation, and thus a representative flux estimate, with the MOSAiC site.

J Brant Dodson↗

Statistical Survey of Magnetic Flux Integral Quantities in Saturn's Magnetosphere

Magnetic flux integral quantities (e.g., flux tube entropy, flux tube content) are conserved quantities under the frozen-in assumption. The change of these quantities often indicates the violation of the frozen-in condition (e.g., interchange instability). In this study, we combine the Cassini CAPS and CHEMS moments data with a steady-state magnetic field model (i.e., the Caudal model) to estimate the flux tube mass and flux tube entropy in Saturn's magnetosphere. Our statistical survey found that the flux tube mass rapidly decreases with radial distance away from Saturn in the inner magnetosphere and roughly levels out in the middle magnetosphere. This indicates that the radial transport processes could occur via a double-reconnection process in the inner magnetosphere, while the radial transport processes appear to be more advective in the middle magnetosphere. Notice that Saturn's magnetosphere is stabilized by a radially increasing profile of flux tube entropy and destabilized by a radially decreasing profile of flux tube content. In this study, we also estimate the expected penetration location by using the flux tube interchange stability formalism developed by Southwood and Kivelson (1987, https://doi.org/10.1029/ja092ia01p00109). The results show that flux tube entropy can play a crucial role in braking the injections, while the flux tube content has a relatively smaller influence on the injected flux tube, being consistent with our previous case study by Wing et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac85b2).

Ma, Xuanye [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, ↗

Long term microparticle impact fluxes on LDEF determined from optical survey of Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) sensors

Many of the IDE metal-oxide-silicon (MOS) capacitor-discharge impact sensors remained active during the entire Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) mission. An optical survey of impact sites on the active surfaces of these sensors has been extended to include all sensors from the low-flux sides of LDEF (i.e. the west or trailing side, the earth end, and the space end) and 5-7 active sensors from each LDEF's high-flux sides (i.e. the east or leading side, the south side, and the north side). This survey was facilitated by the presence of a relatively large (greater than 50 micron diameter) optical signature associated with each impact site on the active sensor surfaces. Of the approximately 4700 impacts in the optical survey data set, 84% were from particles in the 0.5 to 3 micron size range. An estimate of the total number of hypervelocity impacts on LDEF from particles greater than 0.5 micron diameter yields a value of approximately 7 x 10(exp 6). Impact feature dimensions for several dozen large craters on MOS sensors and germanium witness plates are also presented. Impact fluxes calculated from the IDE survey data closely matched surveys of similar size impacts (greater than or equal to 3 micron diameter craters in Al, or marginal penetrations of a 2.4 micron thick Al foil) by other LDEF investigators. Since the first year IDE data were electronically recorded, the flux data could be divided into three long term time periods: the first year, the entire 5.8 year mission, and the intervening 4.8 years (by difference). The IDE data show that there was an order of magnitude decrease in the long term microparticle impact flux on the trailing side of LDEF, from 1.01 to 0.098 x 10(exp -4) m(exp 2)/s, from the first year in orbit compared to years 2-6. The long term flux on the leading edge showed an increase from 8.6 to 11.2 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s over this same time period. (Short term flux increases up to 10,000 times the background rate were recorded on the leading side during LDEF's first year in orbit.) The overall east/west ratio was 44, but during LDEF's first year in orbit the ratio was 8.5, and during years 2-6 the ratio was 114. Long term microparticle impact fluxes on the space end decreased from 1.12 to 0.55 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s from the first year in orbit compared to years 2-6. The earth end showed the opposite trend with an increase from 0.16 to 0.38 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s. Fluxes on rows 6 and 12 decreased from 6.1 to 3.4 and 6.7 to 3.7 x 10(exp -4) m(exp -2)/s, respectively, over the same time periods. This resulted in space/earth microparticle impact flux ratios of 7.1 during the first year and 1.5 during years 2-6, while the south/north, space/north and space/south ratios remained constant at 1.1, 0.16 and 0.17, respectively, during the entire mission. This information indicates the possible identification of long term changes in discrete microparticle orbital debris component contributions to the total impact flux experienced by LDEF. A dramatic decrease in the debris population capable of striking the trailing side was detected that could possibly be attributed to the hiatus of western launch activity experienced from 1986-1989. A significant increase in the debris population that preferentially struck the leading side was also observed and could possibly be attributed to a single breakup event that occurred in September of 1986. A substantial increase in the microparticle debris population that struck the earth end of LDEF, but not the space end, was also detected and could possibly be the result of a single breakup event at low altitude. These results point to the importance of including discrete orbital debris component contribution changes in flux models in order to achieve accurate predictions of the microparticle environment that a particular spacecraft will experience in earth orbit. The only reliable, verified empirical measurements of these changes are reported in this paper. Further time-resolved in-situ measurements of these debris populations are needed to accurately assess model predictions and mitigation practices.

Simon, C. G.↗

Carbon dioxide fluxes over a raised open bog at the Kinosheo Lake tower site during the Northern Wetlands Study (NOWES)

Measurements of carbon dioxide concentration and flux were made above a raised open bog at Lake Kinosheo in the southern Hudson Bay lowlands during the Northern Wetlands Study (NOWES) experiment in 1990. The flux measurements were made using micrometeorological techniques. They provide the first nondisturbing, larger-scale CO2 flux measurements for this ecosystem and are the first to integrate the exchange over the whole 24 hours of the day. Continuous concentration measurements by infrared gas analyzers (IRGA) and spot flask samples were taken over the period July 1 to July 29. Afternoon CO2 values were only 5 to 7 parts per million by volume (ppmv) lower than measurements over the same period at Canadian background monitoring stations. This suggested that there was little draw-down by local photosynthetic sinks. CO2 fluxes were measured at 8 and 18 m by Bowen ratio and eddy correlation methods, respectively. The methods produced comparable results on averaged data but often diverged considerably on individual half-hour results. Fluxes were small. Daytime values averaged to -0.068 mg/sq m/s by eddy correlation and -0.077 mg/sq m/s by Bowen ratio over the period June 25 to July 28 (negative denotes downward flux), while at night, flux densities were +0.062 mg/sq m/s and +0.085 mg/sq m/s. Integration of the mean diurnal curve gave a net flux of -1.7 g/sq m/d. Comparable data for this type of ecosystem were not found. However, Coyne and Kelley (1975), measuring near Barrow, Alaska, over wet meadow tundra dominated by sedges and grasses, found net fluxes of -7.2 g/sq m/d. Typical net CO2 fluxes from other active temperature ecosystems have been found to be -10 to -20 g/sq m/d (Monteith, 1976). Mean half hourly fluxes were almost constant at +0.06 mg/sq m/s through the nighttime hours. About one half-hour after sunrise the flux reversed direction. Uptake peaked about 0900 eastern daylight time (EDT) and then gradually declined but remained downward until near sunset. The early peak was interpreted to signify that the many plants in the bog experienced water stress during the day as evaporative demand increased and nighttime dew was evaporated.

Neumann, H. H.↗

Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global heat flow

A significant discrepancy exists between the heat flow measured at the seafloor and the higher values predicted by thermal models of the cooling lithosphere. This discrepancy is generally interpreted as indicating that the upper oceanic crust is cooled significantly by hydrothermal circulation. The magnitude of this heat flow discrepancy is the primary datum used to estimate the volume of hydrothermal flow, and the variation in the discrepancy with lithospheric age is the primary constraint on how the hydrothermal flux is divided between near-ridge and off-ridge environments. The resulting estimates are important for investigation of both the thermal structure of the lithosphere and the chemistry of the oceans. We reevaluate the magnitude and age variation of the discrepancy using a global heat flow data set substantially larger than in earlier studies, and the GDHI (Global Depth and Heat Flow) model that better predicts the heat flow. We estimate that of the predicted global oceanic heat flux of 32 x 10(exp 12) W, 34% (11 x 10(exp 12) W) occurs by hydrothermal flow. Approximately 30% of the hydrothermal heat flux occurs in crust younger than 1 Ma, so the majority of this flux is off-ridge. These hydrothermal heat flux estimates are upper bounds, because heat flow measurements require sediment at the site and so are made preferentially at topographic lows, where heat flow may be depressed. Because the water temperature for the near-ridge flow exceeds that for the off-ridge flow, the near-ridge water flow will be even a smaller fraction of the total water flow. As a result, in estimating fluxes from geochemical data, use of the high water temperatures appropriate for the ridge axis may significantly overestimate the heat flux for an assumed water flux or underestimate the water flux for an assumed heat flux. Our data also permit improved estimates of the 'sealing' age, defined as the age where the observed heat flow approximately equals that predicted, suggesting that hydrothermal heat transfer has largely ceased. Although earlier studies suggested major differences in sealing ages for different ocean basins, we find that the sealing ages for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans are similar and consistent with the sealing age for the entire data set, 65 +/- 10 Ma. The previous inference of a young (approximately 20 Ma) sealing age for the Pacific appears to have biased downward several previous estimates of the global hydrothermal flux. The heat flow data also provide indirect evidence for the mechanism by which the hydrothermal heat flux becomes small, which has often been ascribed to isolation of the igneous crust from seawater due to the hydraulic conductivity of the intervening sediment. We find, however, that even the least sedimented sites show the systematic increase of the ratio of observed to predicted heat flow with age, although the more sedimented sites have a younger sealing age. Moreover, the heat flow discrepancy persists at heavily sedimented sites until approximately 50 Ma. It thus appears that approximately 100-200 m of sediment is neither necessary nor sufficient to stop hydrothermal heat transfer. We therefore conclude that the age of the crust is the primary control on the fraction of heat transported by hydrothermal flow and that sediment thickness has a lesser effect. This inference is consistent with models in which hydrothermal flow decreases with age due to reduced crustal porosity and hence permeability.

Stein, Carol A.↗