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DOE OSTI2015

Intelligent energy buildings based on RES and nanotechnology

The paper presents the design features, the energy modelling and optical performance details of two pilot Intelligent Energy Buildings, (IEB). Both are evolution of the Zero Energy Building (ZEB) concept. RES innovations backed up by signal processing, simulation models and ICT tools were embedded into the building structures in order to implement a new predictive energy management concept. In addition, nano-coatings, produced by TiO2 and ITO nano-particles, were deposited on the IEB structural elements and especially on the window panes and the PV glass covers. They exhibited promising SSP values which lowered the cooling loads and increased the PV modules yield. Both pilot IEB units were equipped with an on-line dynamic hourly solar radiation prediction model, implemented by sensors and the related software to manage effectively the energy source, the loads and the storage or the backup system. The IEB energy sources covered the thermal loads via a south façade embedded in the wall and a solar roof which consists of a specially designed solar collector type, while a PV generator is part of the solar roof, like a compact BIPV in hybrid configuration to a small wind turbine.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2003

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) retrievals, based on geostationary satellites from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) are used for both calibrating and verifying the day-ahead GHI and DNI predictions (GDIP). A 10-member ensemble of WRF-Solar EPS is run in a re-forecast mode to generate day-ahead GDIP for three years. The AnEn is used to calibrate GDIP at each grid point independently using the NSRDB as the “ground truth”. Performance evaluations of deterministic and probabilistic attributes are carried out over the whole CONUS. The results demonstrate that using the AnEn calibrated ensemble forecast from WRF-Solar EPS contributes to improving the overall quality of the GHI predictions with respect to an AnEn calibrated system based only on the deterministic run of WRF-Solar. In fact, the calibrated WRF-Solar EPS’s mean exhibits a lower bias and RMSE than the calibrated deterministic WRF-Solar. Moreover, using the ensemble mean and spread as predictors for the AnEn allows a more effective calibration than using variables only from the deterministic runs. Finally, it has been shown that the recently introduced algorithm of correction for rare events is of paramount importance to obtain the lowest values of GHI from the calibrated ensemble (WRF-Solar EPS AnEn), qualitatively consistent with those observed from the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Solar Probe: Report of the Science and Technology Definition Team

The Solar Probe mission of the Living With a Star program will be a historic mission, flying into one of the last unexplored regions of the solar system, the Sun's atmoshpere or corona, for the first time. Approaching as close as 3 Rs above the Sun's surface, Solar Probe will employ a combination of in-situ measurements and imaging to achieve the mission's primary scientific goal: to understand how the Sun's corona is heated and how the solar wind is accelerated. Solar Probe will revolutionize our knowledge of the physics of the origin and evolution of the solar wind. Moreover, by making the only direct, in-situ measurements of the region where some of the deadliest solar energetic particles are energized, Solar Probe will make unique and fundamental contributions to our ability to characterize and forecast the radiation environment in which future space explorers will work and live.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2022

Unique Observational Constraints on the Seasonal and Longitudinal Variability of the Earth’s Planetary Albedo and Cloud Distribution Inferred From EPIC Measurements

Thorough comparison to observations is key to developing a credible climate model forecasting capability. Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) measurements of Earth’s reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation provide a unique observational perspective that permits a more reliable model/data comparison than is possible with the otherwise available satellite data. The uniqueness is in the DSCOVR satellite’s viewing geometry, which enables continuous viewing of the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere from its Lissajous orbit around the Lagrangian L1 point. The key instrument is the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC), which views the Earth’s sunlit hemisphere with 1024-by-1024-pixel imagery in 10 narrow spectral bands from 317 to 780 nm, acquiring up to 22 high spatial resolution images per day. The additional feature is that the frequency of EPIC image acquisition is nearly identical to that of the climate GCM data generation scheme where climate data for the entire globe are ‘instantaneously’ calculated at 1-h radiation time-step intervals. Implementation of the SHS (Sunlit Hemisphere Sampling) EPIC-view geometry for the in-line GCM output data sampling establishes a precise self-consistency in the space-time data sampling between EPIC observational and GCM output data generation and sampling. The remaining problem is that the GCM generated data are radiative fluxes, while the EPIC measurements are backscatter-dependent radiances. Radiance to flux conversion is a complex problem with no simple way to convert GCM radiative fluxes into spectral radiances. The more expedient approach is to convert the EPIC spectral radiances into broadband radiances by MODIS/CERES-based regression relationships and then into solar radiative fluxes using the CERES angular distribution models. Averaging over the sunlit hemisphere suppresses the meteorological weather noise, but preserves the intra-seasonal larger scale variability. Longitudinal slicing by the Earth’s rotation permits a self-consistent model/data comparison of the longitudinal model/data differences in the variability of the reflected solar radiation. Ancillary EPIC Composite data provide additional cloud property information for climate model diagnostics. Comparison of EPIC-derived seasonal and longitudinal variability of the Earth’s planetary albedo with the GISS ModelE2 results shows systematic overestimate of cloud reflectivity over the Pacific Ocean with corresponding underestimates over continental land areas.

DSCOVR↗

DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of extreme ultraviolet imaging spectrometer observations of solar coronal loops with Alfvén wave turbulence models

The observed non-thermal widths of coronal emission lines could be due to Alfvén wave turbulence. To test this idea, we examine and analyze the dynamics of an active region observed on 2012 September 7. We use spectral line profiles of Fe XII, Fe XIII, Fe XV, and Fe XVI obtained by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer on the it Hinode spacecraft. The observations show non-thermal velocities, Doppler outflows, and intensities for loops in this active region. The observed non-thermal velocities are compared with predictions from models for Alfvén wave turbulence in the observed coronal loops. This modeling takes into account the relationship between the width of the coronal emission lines and the orientation of the coronal loops with respect to the line-of-sight direction. We find that in order to produce the observed line widths we need to introduce a random parallel-flow component in addition to the perpendicular velocity due to Alfvén waves. The observed widths are consistent with photospheric footpoint velocities in the range 0.3-1.5 km s{sup –1}. We conclude that the Alfvén wave turbulence model is a strong candidate for explaining how the observed loops are heated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Predicting the sun's polar magnetic fields with a surface flux transport model

The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at cycle maximum alter the propagation of galactic cosmic rays throughout the heliosphere in fundamental ways. We describe a surface magnetic flux transport model that advects the magnetic flux emerging in active regions (sunspots) using detailed observations of the near-surface flows that transport the magnetic elements. These flows include the axisymmetric differential rotation and meridional flow and the non-axisymmetric cellular convective flows (supergranules), all of which vary in time in the model as indicated by direct observations. We use this model with data assimilated from full-disk magnetograms to produce full surface maps of the Sun's magnetic field at 15 minute intervals from 1996 May to 2013 July (all of sunspot cycle 23 and the rise to maximum of cycle 24). We tested the predictability of this model using these maps as initial conditions, but with daily sunspot area data used to give the sources of new magnetic flux. We find that the strength of the polar fields at cycle minimum and the polar field reversals at cycle maximum can be reliably predicted up to 3 yr in advance. We include a prediction for the cycle 24 polar field reversal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tools used in Space Radiation Operations

The goal of NASA's Radiation Health Program is to achieve human exploration and development of space without exceeding acceptable risk from exposure to ionizing radiation. The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at NASA Johnson Space Center carries out this mission by following the philosophy of ALARA – As Low as Reasonably Achievable. SRAG utilizes a variety of tools to maintain awareness of space weather and to monitor the space radiation environment, both internal and external to the vehicle. SRAG develops and manages a wide variety of detectors that are located on the exterior and throughout the interior of the International Space Station and worn by crew. During Artemis I, SRAG provided detectors distributed within Orion’s interior and participated in the MARE experiment, which outfitted female phantoms with thousands of thermoluminescence detectors (TLD) and other dosimeters to better constrain the total dose accrued inside the human during a mission to the Moon. Motivated by the Artemis Exploration Class missions, SRAG and collaborators are developing forecasting capabilities for solar energetic particle (SEP) events and their biological impacts to crew. Tools that have come out of this work include the Acute Radiation Risk Tool (ARRT) and the SEP Scoreboards. This presentation will give an overview of the tools used in SRAG ops and currently under development to support our next steps in human space exploration.

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop a physics based predictive toolset RISCS to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 AU; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements.

Zank, G. P.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Transition of the Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop and transition a physics based predictive toolset called The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 Astronomical Units; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements. The described transition plan is based on a well established approach developed in the Earth Science discipline that ensures that the customer has a tool that meets their needs

Spann, James F.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Joint high temperature observation of a small C6.5 solar flare with IRIS/EIS/AIA

We present the observation of a C6.5 class flare on 2014 February 3, obtained with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and the EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on board HINODE. We follow the details of the impulsive phase with IRIS and the gradual decay phase with both IRIS and EIS. The IRIS Slit-Jaw Imager and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) are used to precisely co-align the two sets of spectroscopic observations. Of particular interest is the Fe xxi 1354.08 Å spectral line, which is the highest temperature emission (∼10 MK) observed in the IRIS wavelength range. We show the evolution of the Fe xxi profiles during the impulsive phase of the flare at the same ribbon location with a 75 s temporal cadence. Totally blueshifted (∼82 km s{sup −1}) profiles are found at the very early phase of the flare and gradually decrease in about 6 minutes. This result is consistent with 1D model predictions during chromospheric evaporation in flares. The blueshifted components also exhibit large non-thermal broadening, which decreases simultaneously with the blueshifted velocity. After the evaporation first occurs, the Fe xxi intensity progressively moves from the footpoints to the top of the hot flare loops seen in the AIA 131 Å images, where the emission is observed to be at rest and thermal. Emission measure estimates from IRIS/EIS/AIA observations during the gradual phase show isothermal loop top structures cooling from about 13.5 to 12 MK with electron densities of the order of ∼5−6×10{sup 10} cm{sup −3}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Using Landsat to provide potato production estimates to Columbia Basin farmers and processors

A summary of project activities relative to the estimation of potato yields in the Columbia Basin is given. Oregon State University is using a two-pronged approach to yield estimation, one using simulation models and the other using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach has used satellite observations to determine key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Two empirical modeling approaches are illustrated. One relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation; the other relates tuber yield to the integral under the GVI curve.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Understanding Radiation Belt Dynamics: Insights from Two Storm Periods

The periods of May 27 - June 5, 2017 and Oct 24 — 29, 2016 are 'unusual' in terms of radiation belt dynamics and their solar wind driving conditions. The first period was under the influence of a slow CME-led major geomagnetic storm with Dstmin = -125 nT and the second period was under high speed solar wind streams. Observations from Van Allen Probes show great variabilities in different electron energy channels for both periods. During the second period of Oct 24 - 29, 2016, electron fluxes are found to be near the highest upper limit among various storms during 2013–2018 (Hua, Bortnik and Ma, 2022). In this paper, we provide solar wind sources and geomagnetic conditions for these two storm periods and point out challenges in understanding, modeling, and forecasting radiation belt dynamics. In-depth analysis of modeling results utilizing radiation belt models available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center such as VERB and CIMI will be performed. Initial modeling results indicate rather large discrepancies with the observations. Model validation using different metrics introduced in Zheng et al. (2019) will be carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved and to identity potential causes of modeling inadequacies.

Yihua Zheng↗

DOE OSTI2012

AUTOMATED SOLAR FLARE STATISTICS IN SOFT X-RAYS OVER 37 YEARS OF GOES OBSERVATIONS: THE INVARIANCE OF SELF-ORGANIZED CRITICALITY DURING THREE SOLAR CYCLES

We analyzed the soft X-ray light curves from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites over the last 37 years (1975-2011) and measured with an automated flare detection algorithm over 300,000 solar flare events (amounting to Almost-Equal-To 5 times higher sensitivity than the NOAA flare catalog). We find a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub F} = 1.98 {+-} 0.11 for the (background-subtracted) soft X-ray peak fluxes that is invariant through three solar cycles and agrees with the theoretical prediction {alpha}{sub F} = 2.0 of the fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality (FD-SOC) model. For the soft X-ray flare rise times, we find a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub T} = 2.02 {+-} 0.04 during solar cycle minima years, which is also consistent with the prediction {alpha}{sub T} = 2.0 of the FD-SOC model. During solar cycle maxima years, the power-law slope is steeper in the range of {alpha}{sub T} Almost-Equal-To 2.0-5.0, which can be modeled by a solar-cycle-dependent flare pile-up bias effect. These results corroborate the FD-SOC model, which predicts a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub E} = 1.5 for flare energies and thus rules out significant nanoflare heating. While the FD-SOC model predicts the probability distribution functions of spatio-temporal scaling laws of nonlinear energy dissipation processes, additional physical models are needed to derive the scaling laws between the geometric SOC parameters and the observed emissivity in different wavelength regimes, as we derive here for soft X-ray emission. The FD-SOC model also yields statistical probabilities for solar flare forecasting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Barghouty, Nasser↗

NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Investigation of Relationship between High-energy X-Ray Sources and Photospheric and Helioseismic Impacts of X1.8 Solar Flare of 2012 October 23

The X-class solar flare of 2012 October 23 generated continuum photospheric emission and a strong helioseismic wave (“sunquake”) that points to an intensive energy release in the dense part of the solar atmosphere. We study properties of the energy release with high temporal and spatial resolutions, using photospheric data from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board Solar Dynamics Observatory , and hard X-ray observations made by RHESSI . For this analysis we use level-1 HMI data (filtergrams), obtained by scanning the Fe i line (6731 Å) with the time cadence of ∼3.6 s and spatial resolution of ∼0.″5 per pixel. It is found that the photospheric disturbances caused by the flare spatially coincide with the region of hard X-ray emission but are delayed by ≲4 s. This delay is consistent with predictions of the flare hydrodynamics RADYN models. However, the models fail to explain the magnitude of variations observed by the HMI. The data indicate that the photospheric impact and helioseismic wave might be caused by the electron energy flux, which is substantially higher than that in the current flare radiative hydrodynamic models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

A WRF simulation of the impact of 3-D radiative transfer on surface hydrology over the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada

We investigate 3-D mountains/snow effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, applied at a 30 km grid resolution, is used in conjunction with a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization covering a time period from 1 November 2007 to 31 May 2008, during which abundant snowfall occurred. A comparison of the 3-D WRF simulation with the observed snow water equivalent (SWE) and precipitation from Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites shows reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and daily and seasonal variability, although the simulation generally has a positive precipitation bias. We show that 3-D mountain features have a profound impact on the diurnal and monthly variation of surface radiative and heat fluxes, and on the consequent elevation-dependence of snowmelt and precipitation distributions. In particular, during the winter months, large deviations (3-D-PP, in which PP denotes the plane-parallel approach) of the monthly mean surface solar flux are found in the morning and afternoon hours due to shading effects for elevations below 2.5 km. During spring, positive deviations shift to the earlier morning. Over mountaintops higher than 3 km, positive deviations are found throughout the day, with the largest values of 40–60 W m -2 occurring at noon during the snowmelt season of April to May. The monthly SWE deviations averaged over the entire domain show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, which leads to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher elevation areas, positive SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Overall, this study shows that deviations of SWE due to 3-D radiation effects range from an increase of 18% at the lowest elevation range (1.5–2 km) to a decrease of 8% at the highest elevation range (above 3 km). Since lower elevation areas occupy larger fractions of the land surface, the net effect of 3-D radiative transfer is to extend snowmelt and snowmelt-driven runoff into the warm season.Finally, because 60–90% of water resources originate from mountains worldwide, the aforementioned differences in simulated hydrology due solely to 3-D interactions between solar radiation and mountains/snow merit further investigation in order to understand the implications of modeling mountain water resources, and these resources' vulnerability to climate change and air pollution.

3-D radiative transfer↗