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NASA NTRS2014

Grid Resolution Study over Operability Space for a Mach 1.7 Low Boom External Compression Inlet

This paper presents a statistical methodology whereby the probability limits associated with CFD grid resolution of inlet flow analysis can be determined which provide quantitative information on the distribution of that error over the specified operability range. The objectives of this investigation is to quantify the effects of both random (accuracy) and systemic (biasing) errors associated with grid resolution in the analysis of the Lockheed Martin Company (LMCO) N+2 Low Boom external compression supersonic inlet. The study covers the entire operability space as defined previously by the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) High Speed Research (HSR) program goals. The probability limits in terms of a 95.0% confidence interval on the analysis data were evaluated for four ARP1420 inlet metrics, namely (1) total pressure recovery (PFAIP), (2) radial hub distortion (DPH/P), (3) ) radial tip distortion (DPT/P), and (4) ) circumferential distortion (DPC/P). In general, the resulting +/-0.95 delta Y interval was unacceptably large in comparison to the stated goals of the HSCT program. Therefore, the conclusion was reached that the "standard grid" size was insufficient for this type of analysis. However, in examining the statistical data, it was determined that the CFD analysis results at the outer fringes of the operability space were the determining factor in the measure of statistical uncertainty. Adequate grids are grids that are free of biasing (systemic) errors and exhibit low random (precision) errors in comparison to their operability goals. In order to be 100% certain that the operability goals have indeed been achieved for each of the inlet metrics, the Y+/-0.95 delta Y limit must fall inside the stated operability goals. For example, if the operability goal for DPC/P circumferential distortion is ≤0.06, then the forecast Y for DPC/P plus the 95% confidence interval on DPC/P, i.e. +/-0.95 delta Y, must all be less than or equal to 0.06.

Grid↗

NASA NTRS2018

Structural Certification of Human-Rated Inflatable Space Structures

This paper details the results of an initial study to develop a certification plan for human-rated inflatable space structures, including guidelines for qualification testing. Habitable softgoods inflatables are multi-layered shell structures that use high-strength webbing, cordage and broadcloth fabric to carry the skin loads of a variety of volumetric shapes and structural architectures. The primary objectives of this study are to define the key parameters that affect these structures and propose a statistically robust approach to defining safety and knockdown factors based on test and analysis. Current NASA standards for habitable inflatable space structures use a factor of safety of 4, which was inherited from airship design criteria. An updated approach to defining a design factor, taking into account material strength variability, load variability in the article, number of test samples, and damage and degradation effects is specified. Accurate analytical modeling of these structures is hindered by the difficulty of obtaining accurate and consistent material data due to load-history- dependent, nonlinear load versus strain behavior. A building block approach to certification is detailed that uses stochastic modeling and statistical test design and analysis to address the unique challenges these high-strength softgoods structures present. Human-rated inflatable modules are a transformative capability for launching much larger habitable volumes into space than is possible with rigid shell structures. This research aims to provide the framework for certifying these structures for future human space exploration missions.

Jones, Thomas C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An Exploratory Exercise in Taguchi Analysis of Design Parameters: Application to a Shuttle-to-space Station Automated Approach Control System

The chief goals of the summer project have been twofold - first, for my host group and myself to learn as much of the working details of Taguchi analysis as possible in the time allotted, and, secondly, to apply the methodology to a design problem with the intention of establishing a preliminary set of near-optimal (in the sense of producing a desired response) design parameter values from among a large number of candidate factor combinations. The selected problem is concerned with determining design factor settings for an automated approach program which is to have the capability of guiding the Shuttle into the docking port of the Space Station under controlled conditions so as to meet and/or optimize certain target criteria. The candidate design parameters under study were glide path (i.e., approach) angle, path intercept and approach gains, and minimum impulse bit mode (a parameter which defines how Shuttle jets shall be fired). Several performance criteria were of concern: terminal relative velocity at the instant the two spacecraft are mated; docking offset; number of Shuttle jet firings in certain specified directions (of interest due to possible plume impingement on the Station's solar arrays), and total RCS (a measure of the energy expended in performing the approach/docking maneuver). In the material discussed here, we have focused on single performance criteria - total RCS. An analysis of the possibility of employing a multiobjective function composed of a weighted sum of the various individual criteria has been undertaken, but is, at this writing, incomplete. Results from the Taguchi statistical analysis indicate that only three of the original four posited factors are significant in affecting RCS response. A comparison of model simulation output (via Monte Carlo) with predictions based on estimated factor effects inferred through the Taguchi experiment array data suggested acceptable or close agreement between the two except at the predicted optimum point, where a difference outside a rule-of-thumb bound was observed. We have concluded that there is most likely an interaction effect not provided for in the original orthogonal array selected as the basis for our experimental design. However, we feel that the data indicates that this interaction is a mild one and that inclusion of its effect will not alter the location of the optimum.

Deal, Don E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Vortex Generators in a Streamline-Traced, External-Compression Supersonic Inlet

Vortex generators within a streamline-traced, external-compression supersonic inlet for Mach 1.66 were investigated to determine their ability to increase total pressure recovery and reduce total pressure distortion. The vortex generators studied were rectangular vanes arranged in counter-rotating and co-rotating arrays. The vane geometric factors of interest included height, length, spacing, angle-of-incidence, and positions upstream and downstream of the inlet terminal shock. The flow through the inlet was simulated numerically through the solution of the steady-state, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations on multi-block, structured grids using the Wind-US flow solver. The vanes were simulated using a vortex generator model. The inlet performance was characterized by the inlet total pressure recovery and the radial and circumferential total pressure distortion indices at the engine face. Design of experiments and statistical analysis methods were applied to quantify the effect of the geometric factors of the vanes and search for optimal vane arrays. Co-rotating vane arrays with negative angles-of-incidence positioned on the supersonic diffuser were effective in sweeping low-momentum flow from the top toward the sides of the subsonic diffuser. This distributed the low-momentum flow more evenly about the circumference of the subsonic diffuser and reduced distortion. Co-rotating vane arrays with negative angles-of-incidence or counter-rotating vane arrays positioned downstream of the terminal shock were effective in mixing higher-momentum flow with lower-momentum flow to increase recovery and decrease distortion. A strategy of combining a co-rotating vane array on the supersonic diffuser with a counter-rotating vane array on the subsonic diffuser was effective in increasing recovery and reducing distortion.

computational fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2018

Clinical Indication for Computed Tomography During Hepatic Arteriography (CTHA) in Addition to Dynamic CT Studies to Identify Hypervascularity of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PurposeTo identify factors benefiting from computed tomography during hepatic arteriography (CTHA) in addition to dynamic CT studies at the preoperative evaluation of the hypervascularity of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Materials and MethodsWe retrospectively divided 45 patients with HCC, who underwent both dynamic CT (dCT) and CTHA, into two groups based on the number of hypervascular HCCs identified on dCT and CTHA studies. In group A, the number of HCCs identified by dCT and CTHA was the same and additive CTHA had not been indicated. In group B, fewer HCCs were counted on dCT than on CTHA images, indicating that additive CTHA studies had been appropriate. We compared the patient characteristics, the serum alpha-fetoprotein level, and the tumor-liver contrast (TLC) of the main tumor on dCT scans of both groups. To identify factors alerting to the benefit of additional CTHA studies, we performed univariate logistic regression analysis. Statistically significant parameters were subjected to receiver operating characteristic analysis for obtaining the optimal cutoff value indicative of the benefit of CTHA.ResultsUnivariate analysis identified only the TLC of the main tumor on dCT images as a significant factor for the benefit of CTHA images (P < 0.01). At the optimal cutoff value for the TLC of the main tumor on dCT images (15.9 Hounsfield units), the sensitivity and specificity for the benefit of CTHA were 85.0 and 92.0%, respectively.ConclusionEvaluation of the TLC of the main tumor on dCT scans identifies patients in whom additive CTHA studies are beneficial.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emergency department overcrowding and its associated factors at HARME medical emergency center in Eastern Ethiopia

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a significant concern as it can lead to compromised patient care in emergency settings. Various tools have been used to evaluate overcrowding in ED. However, there is a lack of data regarding this issue in resource-limited countries, including Ethiopia. This study aimed to validate NEDOCS, assess level of ED overcrowding and identify associated factors at HARME Medical Emergency Center, located in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Harar, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the HARME Medical Emergency Center, Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, involving a total of 899 patients during 120 sampling intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the agreement between objective and subjective assessments of ED overcrowding. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with ED overcrowding and statistically significant association was declared using 95% confidence level and a p-value < 0.05. Results: The interrater agreement showed a strong correlation with a Cohen's kappa (κ) of 0.80. The National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study Score demonstrated a strong association with subjective assessments from residents and case team nurses, with an AUC of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively. According to residents' perceptions, ED were considered overcrowded 65.8% of the time. Factors significantly associated with ED overcrowding included waiting time for triage (AOR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.54–3.27), working time (AOR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.52–3.26), length of stay (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.27–4.54), saturation level (AOR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31–4.20), chronic illness (AOR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.37–3.53), and abnormal pulse rate (AOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.06–2.16). Conclusion: The study revealed that ED were overcrowded approximately two-thirds of the time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Enhanced legume root growth with pre-soaking in α-Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticle fertilizer

The rising demand for food and energy crops has triggered interest in the use of nanoparticles for agronomy. Specifically, iron oxide-based engineered nanoparticles are promising candidates for next-generation iron-deficiency fertilizers. We used iron oxide and hybrid Pt-decorated iron oxide nanoparticles, at low and high concentrations, and at varied pHs, to model seed pre-soaking solutions for investigation of their effect on embryonic root growth in legumes. This is an environmentally friendly approach, as it uses less fertilizer, therefore less nanoparticles in contact with the soil. Analysis from varied material characterization techniques combined with a statistical analysis method found that iron oxide nanoparticles could enhance root growth by 88–366% at low concentrations (5.54 × 10 -3 mg L -1 Fe). Hybrid Pt-decorated iron oxide nanoparticles and a higher concentration of iron oxide nanoparticles (27.7 mg L -1 Fe) showed reduced root growth. The combined materials characterization and statistical analysis used here can be applied to address many environmental factors to finely tune the development of vital nanofertilizers for high efficiency food production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

TU-H-CAMPUS-JeP1-04: Deformable Image Registration Performances in Pelvis Patients: Impact of CBCT Image Quality

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy and robustness, against image noise and artifacts (typical of CBCT images), of a commercial algorithm for deformable image registration (DIR), to propagate regions of interest (ROIs) in computational phantoms based on real prostate patient images. Methods: The Anaconda DIR algorithm, implemented in RayStation was tested. Two specific Deformation Vector Fields (DVFs) were applied to the reference data set (CTref) using the ImSimQA software, obtaining two deformed CTs. For each dataset twenty-four different level of noise and/or capping artifacts were applied to simulate CBCT images. DIR was performed between CTref and each deformed CTs and CBCTs. In order to investigate the relationship between image quality parameters and the DIR results (expressed by a logit transform of the Dice Index) a bilinear regression was defined. Results: More than 550 DIR-mapped ROIs were analyzed. The Statistical analysis states that deformation strenght and artifacts were significant prognostic factors of DIR performances, while noise appeared to have a minor role in DIR process as implemented in RayStation as expected by the image similarity metric built in the registration algorithm. Capping artifacts reveals a determinant role for the accuracy of DIR results. Two optimal values for capping artifacts were found to obtain acceptable DIR results (DICE> 075/ 0.85). Various clinical CBCT acquisition protocol were reported to evaluate the significance of the study. Conclusion: This work illustrates the impact of image quality on DIR performance. Clinical issues like Adaptive Radiation Therapy (ART) and Dose Accumulation need accurate and robust DIR software. The RayStation DIR algorithm resulted robust against noise, but sensitive to image artifacts. This result highlights the need of robustness quality assurance against image noise and artifacts in the commissioning of a DIR commercial system and underlines the importance to adopt optimized protocols for CBCT image acquisitions in ART clinical implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Surface Finishing and Coating Parameters Impact on Additively Manufactured Binder-Jetted Steel–Bronze Composites

In this paper, electroless nickel plating is explored for the protection of binder-jetting-based additively manufactured (AM) composite materials. Electroless nickel plating was attempted on binder-jetted composites composed of stainless steel and bronze, resulting in differences in the physicochemical properties. We investigated the impact of surface finishing, plating solution chemistry, and plating parameters to attain a wide range of surface morphologies and roughness levels. We employed the Keyence microscope to quantitatively evaluate dramatically different surface properties before and after the coating of AM composites. Scanning electron microscopy revealed a wide range of microstructural properties in relation to each combination of surface finishing and coating parameters. We studied chempolishing, plasma cleaning, and organic cleaning as the surface preparation methods prior to coating. We found that surface preparation dictated the surface roughness. Taguchi statistical analysis was performed to investigate the relative strength of experimental factors and interconnectedness among process parameters to attain optimum coating qualities. The quantitative impacts of phosphorous level, temperature, surface preparation, and time factor on the roughness of the nickel-plated surface were 17.95%, 8.2%, 50.02%, and 13.21%, respectively. On the other hand, the quantitative impacts of phosphorous level, temperature, surface preparation, and time factor on the thickness of nickel plating were 35.12%, 41.40%, 3.87%, and 18.24%, respectively. The optimum combination of the factors’ level projected the lowest roughness of Ra at 7.76 µm. The optimum combination of the factors’ level projected the maximum achievable thickness of ~149 µm. This paper provides insights into coating process for overcoming the sensitivity of AM composites in hazardous application spaces via robust coating.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Radio measurements of the stellar proper motions in the core of the orion nebula cluster

Using multi-epoch Very Large Array observations, covering a time baseline of 29.1 years, we have measured the proper motions of 88 young stars with compact radio emission in the core of the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) and the neighboring BN/KL region. Our work increases the number of young stars with measured proper motion at radio frequencies by a factor of 2.5 and enables us to perform a better statistical analysis of the kinematics of the region than was previously possible. Most stars (79 out of 88) have proper motions consistent with a Gaussian distribution centered on (μ{sub α}cos δ)-bar =1.07±0.09 mas yr{sup −1}, and (μ{sub δ})-bar =−0.84±0.16 mas yr{sup −1}, with velocity dispersions of σ{sub α}=1.08±0.07 mas yr{sup −1}, σ{sub δ}=1.27±0.15 mas yr{sup −1}. We looked for organized movements of these stars but found no clear indication of radial expansion/contraction or rotation. The remaining nine stars in our sample show peculiar proper motions that differ from the mean proper motions of the ONC by more than 3σ. One of these stars, V 1326 Ori, could have been expelled from the Orion Trapezium 7000 years ago. Two could be related to the multi-stellar disintegration in the BN/KL region, in addition to the previously known sources BN, I and n. The others either have high uncertainties (so their anomalous proper motions are not firmly established) or could be foreground objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Statistical energy analysis of a geared rotor system

The vibroacoustic response of a generic geared rotor system is analyzed on an order of magnitude basis utilizing an approximate statistical energy analysis method. This model includes a theoretical coupling loss factor for a generic bearing component, which properly accounts for the vibration transmission through rolling element bearing. A simplified model of a NASA test stand that assumes vibratory energy flow from the gear mesh source to the casing through shafts and bearings is given as an example. Effects of dissipation loss factor and gearbox radiation efficiency models are studied by comparing predictions with NASA test results.

Lim, Teik C.↗

NASA NTRS1998

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2007

Analyzing Responses of Chemical Sensor Arrays

NASA is developing a third-generation electronic nose (ENose) capable of continuous monitoring of the International Space Station s cabin atmosphere for specific, harmful airborne contaminants. Previous generations of the ENose have been described in prior NASA Tech Briefs issues. Sensor selection is critical in both (prefabrication) sensor material selection and (post-fabrication) data analysis of the ENose, which detects several analytes that are difficult to detect, or that are at very low concentration ranges. Existing sensor selection approaches usually include limited statistical measures, where selectivity is more important but reliability and sensitivity are not of concern. When reliability and sensitivity can be major limiting factors in detecting target compounds reliably, the existing approach is not able to provide meaningful selection that will actually improve data analysis results. The approach and software reported here consider more statistical measures (factors) than existing approaches for a similar purpose. The result is a more balanced and robust sensor selection from a less than ideal sensor array. The software offers quick, flexible, optimal sensor selection and weighting for a variety of purposes without a time-consuming, iterative search by performing sensor calibrations to a known linear or nonlinear model, evaluating the individual sensor s statistics, scoring the individual sensor s overall performance, finding the best sensor array size to maximize class separation, finding optimal weights for the remaining sensor array, estimating limits of detection for the target compounds, evaluating fingerprint distance between group pairs, and finding the best event-detecting sensors.

Zhou, Hanying↗

NASA NTRS1994

Statistical analysis of microgravity experiment performance using the degrees of success scale

This paper describes an approach to identify factors that significantly influence microgravity experiment performance. Investigators developed the 'degrees of success' scale to provide a numerical representation of success. A degree of success was assigned to 293 microgravity experiments. Experiment information including the degree of success rankings and factors for analysis was compiled into a database. Through an analysis of variance, nine significant factors in microgravity experiment performance were identified. The frequencies of these factors are presented along with the average degree of success at each level. A preliminary discussion of the relationship between the significant factors and the degree of success is presented.

Upshaw, Bernadette↗

NASA NTRS1978

Linear stochastic control using the UDU matrix factorization

The classical LQG stochastic control law is reformulated using the matrix factorization S equals UDU super T. This method yields a statistical guidance analysis algorithm that is numerically superior to the classical solution yet requires negligible additional computation and storage. Moreover, experience with U-D algorithms has shown them to be adaptable and easy to implement on a variety of problems.

Thornton, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Ectomycorrhizal Community Structure and Soil Characteristics of Mature Lodgepole Pine (Pinus Contorta) and Adjacent Stands of Old Growth Mixed Conifer in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming USA

Forest development patterns following disturbance are known to influence the physical and chemical attributes of soils at different points in time. Changes in soil resources are thought to have a corresponding effect on ectomycorrhizal (ECM) community structure. We used molecular methods to compare below-ground ECM species richness, composition, and abundance between adjacent stands of homogenous lodgepole pine and old growth mixed conifer in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). In each stand-type we collected soil cores to both identify mycorrhizae and assess soil chemistry. Although no statistical difference was observed in the mean number of ECM root tips per core between stand types, the total number of species identified (85 versus 35) and the mean number of species per core (8.8 +/- 0.6 versus 2.5 +/- 0.3) were significantly higher in lodgepole pine. Differences between the actual and estimated species richness levels indicated that these forest types support a high number of ECM species and that undersampling was severe. Species compositions were widely disparate between stands where only four species were shared out of a total of 116. Soil analysis also revealed that mixed conifer was significantly lower in pH, but higher in organic matter, potassium, phosphorus, and ammonium when compared to lodgepole pine stands. Species richness per core was correlated with these chemical data, however, analysis of covariance indicated that stand type was the only statistically significant factor in the observed difference in species richness. Our data suggest that ECM fungal richness increases as homogenous lodgepole pine stands grow and mature, but declines after Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir colonize. Despite difficulties linking species composition with soil chemistry, there are a variety of physical and chemical factors that could be influencing ECM community structure. Future field experiments are necessary to test some of the mechanisms potentially operating within this system.

Douglas, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Charles River Watershed Water Resources: Assessing Flooding Vulnerability to Assist High Water Intervention and Urban Planning Programs in the Charles River Watershed

The Charles River watershed intersects 35 municipalities within the Boston Metropolitan Area and has a population of 1.2 million, making it one of the most densely populated watersheds in New England. In recent years, the watershed has observed higher rates of flood inundation, mainly due to increased development, extreme precipitation events, and increased surface runoff. As the frequency of flood events increases and a changing climate poses an ongoing threat to local communities, governments, and organizations in Massachusetts need accurate flood risk assessments. This project partnered with the Charles River Watershed Association, the Town of Natick’s Office of Sustainability, and the Massachusetts Audubon Society to assess the potential for watershed degradation, flood vulnerability, and flood susceptibility in the watershed. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) to assess the feasibility of identifying flood events using remote sensing. After identifying images that overlapped with the reported flood events, the team concluded that it was not feasible to use Earth observation data to detect localized flooding. Instead, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100-year floodplain was used as a proxy for areas where flooding may occur. The team used statistical analysis and supervised classification to develop a flood susceptibility map, incorporating factors like soil drainage, height above nearest drainage, and topographic wetness index. This was overlaid with demographic and socioeconomic data to create a flood vulnerability map. The flood susceptibility map captured over 2/3 of reported flood events in the watershed, an improvement over the 1/3 of events captured by the FEMA 100-year and 500-year floodplain maps.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗