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DOE OSTI2021

Stellar flares from blended and neighbouring stars in Kepler short cadence observations

ABSTRACT We present the results of a search for stellar flares from stars neighbouring the target sources in the Kepler short cadence data. These flares have been discarded as contaminants in previous surveys and therefore provide an unexplored resource of flare events, in particular high-energy events from faint stars. We have measured M dwarf flare energies up to 1.5 × 1035 erg, pushing the limit for flare energies measured using Kepler data. We have used our sample to study the flaring activity of wide binaries, finding that the lower mass counterpart in a wide binary flares more often at a given energy. Of the 4430 flares detected in our original search, 298 came from a neighbouring star, a rate of 6.7 ± 0.4 per cent for the Kepler short cadence light curves. We have used our sample to estimate a 5.8 ± 0.1 per cent rate of false positive flare events in studies using Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite short cadence data.

Jackman, James A. G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

eYGFPuv-Assisted Transgenic Selection in Populus deltoides WV94 and Multiplex Genome Editing in Protoplasts of P. trichocarpa × P. deltoides Clone ‘52-225’

Although CRISPR/Cas-based genome editing has been widely used for plant genetic engineering, its application in the genetic improvement of trees has been limited, partly because of challenges in Agrobacterium-mediated transformation. As an important model for poplar genomics and biotechnology research, eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides) clone WV94 can be transformed by A. tumefaciens, but several challenges remain unresolved, including the relatively low transformation efficiency and the relatively high rate of false positives from antibiotic-based selection of transgenic events. Moreover, the efficacy of CRISPR-Cas system has not been explored in P. deltoides yet. Here, we first optimized the protocol for Agrobacterium-mediated stable transformation in P. deltoides WV94 and applied a UV-visible reporter called eYGFPuv in transformation. Our results showed that the transgenic events in the early stage of transformation could be easily recognized and counted in a non-invasive manner to narrow down the number of regenerated shoots for further molecular characterization (at the DNA or mRNA level) using PCR. We found that approximately 8.7% of explants regenerated transgenic shoots with green fluorescence within two months. Next, we examined the efficacy of multiplex CRISPR-based genome editing in the protoplasts derived from P. deltoides WV94 and hybrid poplar clone ‘52-225’ (P. trichocarpa × P. deltoides clone ‘52-225’). The two constructs expressing the Trex2-Cas9 system resulted in mutation efficiency ranging from 31% to 57% in hybrid poplar clone 52-225, but no editing events were observed in P. deltoides WV94 transient assay. The eYGFPuv-assisted plant transformation and genome editing approach demonstrated in this study has great potential for accelerating the genome editing-based breeding process in poplar and other non-model plants species and point to the need for additional CRISPR work in P. deltoides.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

Characterization of Polar Stratospheric Clouds With Spaceborne Lidar: CALIPSO and the 2006 Antarctic Season

The role of polar stratospheric clouds in polar ozone loss has been well documented. The CALIPSO satellite mission offers a new opportunity to characterize PSCs on spatial and temporal scales previously unavailable. A PSC detection algorithm based on a single wavelength threshold approach has been developed for CALIPSO. The method appears to accurately detect PSCs of all opacities, including tenuous clouds, with a very low rate of false positives and few missed clouds. We applied the algorithm to CALIPSO data acquired during the 2006 Antarctic winter season from 13 June through 31 October. The spatial and temporal distribution of CALIPSO PSC observations is illustrated with weekly maps of PSC occurrence. The evolution of the 2006 PSC season is depicted by time series of daily PSC frequency as a function of altitude. Comparisons with virtual solar occultation data indicate that CALIPSO provides a different view of the PSC season than attained with previous solar occultation satellites. Measurement-based time series of PSC areal coverage and vertically-integrated PSC volume are computed from the CALIPSO data. The observed area covered with PSCs is significantly smaller than would be inferred from a temperature-based proxy such as TNAT but is similar in magnitude to that inferred from TSTS. The potential of CALIPSO measurements for investigating PSC microphysics is illustrated using combinations of lidar backscatter coefficient and volume depolarization to infer composition for two CALIPSO PSC scenes.

Pitts, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Science requirements for LISA

Historically, gravitational wave antennas have been characterized by their detection capability. This is measured in terms of signal-to-noise ratio, and implies a rate of false positives and false negatives. But to do useful astrophysics, one would like to measure - or more properly, estimate - astrophysical parameters of the gravitational wave sources. In the interest of strengthening the connection between science objectives and a specific instrument performance, the LISA community has reformulated the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LlSA) science requirements around the anticipated uncertainty in astrophysical parameter estimation. The rationale for this characterization of LlSA and a summary of the astrophysics and fundamental physics that LISA can do will be given. LISA will be able to make precision measurements of sources out to z approximately equal to 10.

Stebbins, Robin T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

SafeAeroBERT: Towards a Safety-Informed Aerospace-Specific Language Model

As aviation systems continue to operate with high traffic, large amounts of documents containing safety-relevant data continue to be generated via reporting systems such as the ASRS. Advanced natural language processing techniques, specifically pre-trained language models, have shown great success in domain-specific applications; however, the text in aviation safety reports is inundated with jargon and thus not fully utilized by general pre-trained models. In this research, we work towards developing a safety-informed aerospace-specific language model by pre-training a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT) model on reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System and the National Transportation Safety Board. The resulting model, called SafeAeroBERT, is fine-tuned for the specific task of document classification, and can be further tuned for named-entity recognition, relation detection, information retrieval, and summarization. Results from the classification task are compared between SafeAeroBERT, the base BERT, and SciBERT models and show SafeAeroBERT outperforms the general BERT and SciBERT on classifying reports about human factors, aircraft, and procedure. SafeAeroBERT can be used on custom tasks, not limited to document classification, and is intended to aid an intelligent knowledge manager for safety report repositories.

Aviation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2023

A study of examiner accuracy in cartridge case comparisons. Part 2: Examiner use of the AFTE range of conclusions

Here, this report describes an analysis of how examiners used the Association of Firearm and Toolmark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions in a controlled study undertaken to estimate examiner error rates in comparing cartridge cases. Results of the error rate analysis are reported in [1]; this paper focuses on a broader analysis of how the entire collection of classification categories, especially those in the Inconclusive range, were used by the participating examiners. Volunteer active examiners with AFTE membership or working in laboratories that participate in Association of Crime Laboratory Directors (ASCLD) were provided with 15 sets of three known and one questioned cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns. Remington 9-mm Luger (manufacturer designation L9MM3) ammunition was used and comparison sets were made up of cartridge cases fired within 100 cartridges of each other for each gun. Examiners were provided with a background survey, an answer sheet allowing for the AFTE Range of Conclusions, and return shipping materials. The participating examiners were provided with both same-source and different-source comparison sets allowing the study to assess both error rates. Responses were received from 218 participating examiners. The overall rate of false-negatives was estimated as 0.367 % from comparisons known to be from the same firearm but reported as eliminations. The overall rate of false-positives was estimated as 1.01 % from comparisons known to be from different firearms but reported as identifications. In the case of true different-source examinations, it is clear that the three Inconclusive categories and the Elimination category are not used consistently by all examiners. We identify five different apparent patterns of use of the AFTE Range of Conclusions scale, and discuss possible reasons for and implications of these differences.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Random forest models accurately classify synthetic opioids using high-dimensionality mass spectrometry datasets

Detection of novel threat agents presents several challenges, a principle one being the development of untargeted methods to screen an increasing number of threat chemicals whose exact structures are unknown. With the use of Machine Learning (ML) tools, we can guide the development of analytical methods for broad-spectrum detection of unbounded threat chemical families in complex mixtures. Toward this goal, we used nominal mass and high-resolution mass spectrometry data for hundreds of synthetic opioids and non-opioid compounds. We tested two ML techniques, logistic regression and random forest, to develop models towards a practical, implementable method for opioid detection. We found that of these tested ML methods, random forest models resulted in the highest validation accuracy (95+%) for both nominal mass and high-resolution classification of opioids versus non-opioids, with low false positive and false negative rates. The RF models were then used to successfully predict the classification of 10 compounds—five opioids and five non-opioids not part of the training and validation analysis. This application of ML is a critical step towards the development of field-deployable nominal mass spectrometers with ML-driven analyses for classification of emergent threats.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2021

OzDES reverberation mapping program: Lag recovery reliability for 6-yr C iv analysis

ABSTRACT We present the statistical methods that have been developed to analyse the OzDES reverberation mapping sample. To perform this statistical analysis we have created a suite of customizable simulations that mimic the characteristics of each source in the OzDES sample. These characteristics include: the variability in the photometric and spectroscopic light curves, the measurement uncertainties, and the observational cadence. By simulating the sources in the OzDES sample that contain the C iv emission line, we developed a set of criteria that rank the reliability of a recovered time-lag depending on the agreement between different recovery methods, the magnitude of the uncertainties, and the rate at which false positives were found in the simulations. These criteria were applied to simulated light curves and these results used to estimate the quality of the resulting Radius–Luminosity relation. We grade the results using three quality levels (gold, silver, and bronze). The input slope of the R–L relation was recovered within 1σ for each of the three quality samples, with the gold standard having the lowest dispersion with a recovered a R–L relation slope of 0.454 ± 0.016 with an input slope of 0.47. Future work will apply these methods to the entire OzDES sample of 771 AGN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Data-driven Approach for Predicting Nepheline Crystallization in High-Level Waste Glasses

High-level waste (HLW) glasses with high aluminum content are prone to nepheline crystallization during the slow canister cooling that is experienced during large-scale production. Due to its detrimental effects on glass durability, nepheline precipitation must be avoided; however, developing robust, predictive models for nepheline crystallization behavior in HLW glasses is difficult due to their compositional complexity. Using overly conservative constraints to predict nepheline formation can limit the waste loading to lower than the achievable capacity. In this study, a robust data-driven model using five compositional features has been developed to predict nepheline formation. The analysis of the model and the data show that there is an overlap, instead of a distinct compositional boundary, between glasses that form and do not form nepheline. As a result, the model’s predictive accuracy is not the same throughout the feature space and instead is dependent on the location of the glass composition in the dimensionally reduced feature space.

Sargin, Irmak↗

DOE OSTI2025

Random forest models accurately classify synthetic opioids using high-dimensionality mass spectrometry datasets

Arasteh, Kourosh [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗

NASA NTRS2010

Support for Systematic Code Reviews with the SCRUB Tool

SCRUB is a code review tool that supports both large, team-based software development efforts (e.g., for mission software) as well as individual tasks. The tool was developed at JPL to support a new, streamlined code review process that combines human-generated review reports with program-generated review reports from a customizable range of state-of-the-art source code analyzers. The leading commercial tools include Codesonar, Coverity, and Klocwork, each of which can achieve a reasonably low rate of false-positives in the warnings that they generate. The time required to analyze code with these tools can vary greatly. In each case, however, the tools produce results that would be difficult to realize with human code inspections alone. There is little overlap in the results produced by the different analyzers, and each analyzer used generally increases the effectiveness of the overall effort. The SCRUB tool allows all reports to be accessed through a single, uniform interface (see figure) that facilitates brows ing code and reports. Improvements over existing software include significant simplification, and leveraging of a range of commercial, static source code analyzers in a single, uniform framework. The tool runs as a small stand-alone application, avoiding the security problems related to tools based on Web browsers. A developer or reviewer, for instance, must have already obtained access rights to a code base before that code can be browsed and reviewed with the SCRUB tool. The tool cannot open any files or folders to which the user does not already have access. This means that the tool does not need to enforce or administer any additional security policies. The analysis results presented through the SCRUB tool s user interface are always computed off-line, given that, especially for larger projects, this computation can take longer than appropriate for interactive tool use. The recommended code review process that is supported by the SCRUB tool consists of three phases: Code Review, Developer Response, and Closeout Resolution. In the Code Review phase, all tool-based analysis reports are generated, and specific comments from expert code reviewers are entered into the SCRUB tool. In the second phase, Developer Response, the developer is asked to respond to each comment and tool-report that was produced, either agreeing or disagreeing to provide a fix that addresses the issue that was raised. In the third phase, Closeout Resolution, all disagreements are discussed in a meeting of all parties involved, and a resolution is made for all disagreements. The first two phases generally take one week each, and the third phase is concluded in a single closeout meeting.

Holzmann, Gerald J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Optimization of OT-MACH Filter Generation for Target Recognition

An automatic Optimum Trade-off Maximum Average Correlation Height (OT-MACH) filter generator for use in a gray-scale optical correlator (GOC) has been developed for improved target detection at JPL. While the OT-MACH filter has been shown to be an optimal filter for target detection, actually solving for the optimum is too computationally intensive for multiple targets. Instead, an adaptive step gradient descent method was tested to iteratively optimize the three OT-MACH parameters, alpha, beta, and gamma. The feedback for the gradient descent method was a composite of the performance measures, correlation peak height and peak to side lobe ratio. The automated method generated and tested multiple filters in order to approach the optimal filter quicker and more reliably than the current manual method. Initial usage and testing has shown preliminary success at finding an approximation of the optimal filter, in terms of alpha, beta, gamma values. This corresponded to a substantial improvement in detection performance where the true positive rate increased for the same average false positives per image.

false alarm reduction↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Acoustic Emission Methods for the Health Evaluation of Integrated Pressure Components

At the request of the Pressure Systems Senior Discipline Expert, to overcome the access and detectable flaw size limitations of other nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods for integrated components, a technique akin to seismology was advanced to perceive the earliest signs of cracking in titanium components before they escalate into serious issues. In this project we achieved a landmark in Acoustic Emission (AE) testing with the first NASA Probability of Detection (POD) study. This is an important first step to the certification of the AE method for flight components and was based on the testing of notched panels. By working closely with industry allies and employing approved methods from the boiler and pressure vessel sector, we not only met but surpassed all POD benchmarks with our test and acceptance criteria. In experiments involving solution heat-treated and aged 6Al-4V-Ti alloy tested with broadband sensors, we recorded a 96% success rate, with zero false positives reported. Our research shows that in some cases, AE testing can locate smaller cracks than other NDE methods. An industry tool for scaling results to full pressure vessels is highlighted. However, before applying our findings to NASA components, tests to validate the transfer functions are advised.

acoustic↗

DOE OSTI2023

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Grandparent Inference from Genetic Data: The Potential for Parentage-Based Tagging Programs to Identify Offspring of Hatchery Strays

Abstract Fisheries managers routinely use hatcheries to increase angling opportunity. Many hatcheries operate as segregated programs where hatchery-origin fish are not intended to spawn with natural-origin conspecifics in order to prevent potential negative effects on the natural-origin population. Currently available techniques to monitor the frequency with which hatchery-origin strays successfully spawn in the wild rely on either genetic differentiation between the hatchery- and natural-origin fish or extensive sampling of fish on the spawning grounds. We present a method to infer grandparent–grandchild trios by using only genotypes from two putative grandparents and one putative grandchild. We developed estimators of false-positive and false-negative error rates and showed that genetic panels containing 500–700 single-nucleotide polymorphisms or 200–300 microhaplotypes are expected to allow application of this technique for monitoring segregated hatchery programs. We discuss the ease with which this technique can be implemented by pre-existing parentage-based tagging programs and provide an R package that applies the method.

Delomas, Thomas A. (ORCID:000000015154759X)↗

DOE OSTI2024

EHR-BERT: A BERT-based model for effective anomaly detection in electronic health records

Objective: Physicians and clinicians rely on data contained in electronic health records (EHRs), as recorded by health information technology (HIT), to make informed decisions about their patients. The reliability of HIT systems in this regard is critical to patient safety. Consequently, better tools are needed to monitor the performance of HIT systems for potential hazards that could compromise the collected EHRs, which in turn could affect patient safety. In this paper, we propose a new framework for detecting anomalies in EHRs using sequence of clinical events. This new framework, EHR-Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), is motivated by the gaps in the existing deep-learning related methods, including high false negatives, sub-optimal accuracy, higher computational cost, and the risk of information loss. EHR-BERT is an innovative framework rooted in the BERT architecture, meticulously tailored to navigate the hurdles in the contemporary BERT method; thus, enhancing anomaly detection in EHRs for healthcare applications.Methods: The EHR-BERT framework was designed using the Sequential Masked Token Prediction (SMTP) method. This approach treats EHRs as natural language sentences and iteratively masks input tokens during both training and prediction stages. This method facilitates the learning of EHR sequence patterns in both directions for each event and identifies anomalies based on deviations from the normal execution models trained on EHR sequences.Results: Extensive experiments on large EHR datasets across various medical domains demonstrate that EHR-BERT markedly improves upon existing models. It significantly reduces the number of false positives and enhances the detection rate, thus bolstering the reliability of anomaly detection in electronic health records. This improvement is attributed to the model’s ability to minimize information loss and maximize data utilization effectively.Conclusion: EHR-BERT showcases immense potential in decreasing medical errors related to anomalous clinical events, positioning itself as an indispensable asset for enhancing patient safety and the overall standard of healthcare services. The framework effectively overcomes the drawbacks of earlier models, making it a promising solution for healthcare professionals to ensure the reliability and quality of health data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rolling Root Mean Square Based Multimodal Anomaly Detection for Real Time Monitoring of Smart Grid

Reliable real-time monitoring is valuable for maintaining the operational integrity of modern electrical smart grids. Deployment of heterogeneous sensing technologies in substations has enabled high-resolution, multichannel waveform monitoring, but also introduces challenges for anomaly detection due to noise, baseline drift, and modality-dependent signal characteristics. In this work, we present a computationally efficient unsupervised method for multimodal event detection based on Rolling Root Mean Square based Event Detection (RRMSED). The method is developed using in-house, field deployed sensors collecting data at a utility substation. The sensing system comprises voltage and current sensors, triaxial accelerometers, and magnetometers, collectively capturing electrical, vibrational, and magnetic waveform measurements at high temporal resolution. RRMSED operates by extracting rolling RMS energy features and their first-order temporal differences from consecutive waveform segments for each channel and then applying channel-specific statistical thresholds learned from historical data. A persistence-based exceedance logic is employed to robustly identify transient events while suppressing impulsive noise, and to provide precise temporal localization with high resolution. The framework is designed for continuous server-side operation and can be deployed in real time without requiring complex models. Experiments on simulated waveform data with known ground truth demonstrate low false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) rates. Application to real substation data shows RRMSED to identify events that are not captured by conventional monitoring indicators including fast transient detection algorithm currently deployed in the system. These results indicate that rolling RMS based features provide an effective and practical basis for real-time multimodal event detection in smart-grid substations.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗