Tree analysis code /TRACE/ program E64106. NERVA program
Computer program for Monte Carlo simulation of fault trees in analysis of large complex systems
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Computer program for Monte Carlo simulation of fault trees in analysis of large complex systems
Computer systems for critical applications must be designed to tolerate software faults as well as hardware faults. A unified approach to tolerating hardware and software faults is characterized by classifying faults in terms of duration (transient or permanent) rather than source (hardware or software). Errors arising from transient faults can be handled through masking or voting, but errors arising from permanent faults require system reconfiguration to bypass the failed component. Most errors which are caused by software faults can be considered transient, in that they are input-dependent. Software faults are triggered by a particular set of inputs. Quantitative dependability analysis of systems which exhibit a unified approach to fault tolerance can be performed by a hierarchical combination of fault tree and Markov models. A methodology for analyzing hardware and software fault tolerant systems is applied to the analysis of a hypothetical system, loosely based on the Fault Tolerant Parallel Processor. The models consider both transient and permanent faults, hardware and software faults, independent and related software faults, automatic recovery, and reconfiguration.
Our understanding of off-nominal behavior - failure modes and fault propagation - in complex systems is often based purely on engineering intuition; specific cases are assessed in an ad hoc fashion as a (fallible) fault management engineer sees fit. This work is an attempt to provide a more rigorous approach to this understanding and assessment by automating the creation of a fault management artifact, the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) through querying a representation of the system in a SysML model. This work builds off the previous development of an off-nominal behavior model for the upcoming Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We further developed the previous system model to more fully incorporate the ideas of State Analysis, and it was restructured in an organizational hierarchy that models the system as layers of control systems while also incorporating the concept of "design authority". We present software that was developed to traverse the elements and relationships in this model to automatically construct an FMEA spreadsheet. We further discuss extending this model to automatically generate other typical fault management artifacts, such as Fault Trees, to efficiently portray system behavior, and depend less on the intuition of fault management engineers to ensure complete examination of off-nominal behavior.
Use SysML/UML to describe the physical structure of the system This part of the model would be shared with other teams - FS Systems Engineering, Planning & Execution, V&V, Operations, etc., in an integrated model-based engineering environment Use the UML Profile mechanism, defining Stereotypes to precisely express the concepts of the FP domain This extends the UML/SysML languages to contain our FP concepts Use UML/SysML, along with our profile, to capture FP concepts and relationships in the model Generate typical FP engineering products (the FMECA, Fault Tree, MRD, V&V Matrices)
We present an overview of the Systems Engineering and Assurance Modeling (SEAM) platform, a web-browser-based tool which is designed to help engineers evaluate the radiation vulnerabilities and develop an assurance approach for electronic parts in space systems. The SEAM framework consists of three interconnected modeling tools, a SysML compatible system description tool, a Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) visual argument tool, and Bayesian Net and Fault Tree extraction and export tools. The SysML and GSN sections also have a coverage check application that ensures that every radiation fault identified on the SysML side is also addressed in the assurance case in GSN. The SEAM platform works on space systems of any degree of radiation hardness but is especially helpful for assessing radiation performance in systems with commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic components.
As autonomous technology advances, unmanned aircraft systems are increasingly integrated into emergency response missions, such as wildfire response. These systems must be be safe with less risk than non-autonomous counter parts, yet quantifying the risk associated with present-day and future systems conventionally relies solely on expert opinion and little data. Instead, combining narrative mishap reports with probabilistic analysis can provide a method for evolutionary and timely risk analysis. In this paper, we present a framework for a data-driven probabilistic risk assessment style analysis, where hazard events and rates originate from documented UAS mishaps. The framework is applied to a UAS mapping mission in wildfire response, including a fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, and probabilistic analysis using Markov Chains. The analysis provides an enumeration of hazards in the system, hazard events that can lead to faults, the probability of a mission experiencing any fault, the probability of experiencing a specific fault, and the expected time spent until faulty states occur in present-day operations.
As autonomous technology advances, unmanned aircraft systems are increasingly integrated into emergency response missions, such as wildfire response. These systems must be be safe with less risk than non-autonomous counter parts, yet quantifying the risk associated with present-day and future systems conventionally relies solely on expert opinion and little data. Instead, combining narrative mishap reports with probabilistic analysis can provide a method for evolutionary and timely risk analysis. In this paper, we present a framework for a data-driven probabilistic risk assessment style analysis, where hazard events and rates originate from documented UAS mishaps. The framework is applied to a UAS mapping mission in wildfire response, including a fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, and probabilistic analysis using Markov Chains. The analysis provides an enumeration of hazards in the system, hazard events that can lead to faults, the probability of a mission experiencing any fault, the probability of experiencing a specific fault, and the expected time spent until faulty states occur in present-day operations.
The complexity of computer systems currently being designed for critical applications in the scientific, commercial, and military arenas requires the development of new techniques for utilizing models of system behavior in order to assure 'ultra-dependability'. The complexity of these systems, such as Space Station Freedom and the Air Traffic Control System, stems from their highly integrated designs containing both hardware and software as critical components. Reliability graph models, such as fault trees and digraphs, are used frequently to model hardware systems. Their applicability for software systems has also been demonstrated for software safety analysis and the analysis of software fault tolerance. This paper discusses further uses of graph models in the design and implementation of fault management systems for safety critical applications.
System safety analysis techniques are well established and are used extensively during the design of safety-critical systems. Despite this, most of the techniques are highly subjective and dependent on the skill of the practitioner. Since these analyses are usually based on an informal system model, it is unlikely that they will be complete, consistent, and error free. In fact, the lack of precise models of the system architecture and its failure modes often forces the safety analysts to devote much of their effort to gathering architectural details about the system behavior from several sources and embedding this information in the safety artifacts such as the fault trees. This report describes Model-Based Safety Analysis, an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. By extending the system model with a fault model as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support can be provided for much of the safety analysis. We believe that by using a common model for both system and safety engineering and automating parts of the safety analysis, we can both reduce the cost and improve the quality of the safety analysis. Here we present our vision of model-based safety analysis and discuss the advantages and challenges in making this approach practical.
The work presented in this paper describes an approach, including a methodology and tools, which allows system engineers to capture failure-related information in a model and generate automatically key failure analysis products: the Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The work has been developed by Tietronix Software, Inc. and the NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and the resulting auto-generated artifacts shown in this paper demonstrate the ability to obtain powerful reliability and fault management products in a model-based environment.
This research investigates the possible failures caused by aging and other environmental and external factors that could significantly impact the performance of extraterrestrial power systems. Additionally, it presents a reliability assessment model for the space microgrid based on fault tree analysis (FTA). The reliability assessment model developed in this paper represents a tool that can be used by engineers to harden the system design for operational and economic benefits. To improve the reliability of the system, this work provides a broad review of the different fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) algorithms used for power microgrids and space applications. Using data sets from the Habitat Simulator developed through the NASA-funded Resilient Extraterrestrial Habitat Institute, this paper compares the applicability and accuracy of the different FDD methods. The primary FDD approach proposed and assessed in this work is based on the Markov reliability model. It predicts and detects future faults in the space microgrids by using past data samples and categorizing them into different classes. Data-driven-based models such as artificial neural networks are also investigated, tested, and evaluated using simulation data sets. According to the simulation results and the broad FDD algorithm comparison, this study provides the crew or maintenance engineers with a clear methodology to detect and localize power system failures.
Robots are used in inaccessible or hazardous environments in order to alleviate some of the time, cost and risk involved in preparing men to endure these conditions. In order to perform their expected tasks, the robots are often quite complex, thus increasing their potential for failures. If men must be sent into these environments to repair each component failure in the robot, the advantages of using the robot are quickly lost. Fault tolerant robots are needed which can effectively cope with failures and continue their tasks until repairs can be realistically scheduled. Before fault tolerant capabilities can be created, methods of detecting and pinpointing failures must be perfected. This paper develops a basic fault tree analysis of a robot in order to obtain a better understanding of where failures can occur and how they contribute to other failures in the robot. The resulting failure flow chart can also be used to analyze the resiliency of the robot in the presence of specific faults. By simulating robot failures and fault detection schemes, the problems involved in detecting failures for robots are explored in more depth.
Graph theoretic methods are applied to compute the reliability for several types of networks of moderate size. The graph theory methods used are minimal spanning trees for networks with bi-directional links and the related concept of strongly connected directed graphs for networks with uni-directional links. A comparison is conducted of ring networks and braided networks. The case is covered where just the links fail and the case where both links and nodes fail. Two different failure modes for the links are considered. For one failure mode, the link no longer carries messages. For the other failure mode, the link delivers incorrect messages. There is a description and comparison of link-redundancy versus path-redundancy as methods to achieve reliability. All the computations are carried out by means of a fault tree program.
Products are often discarded when they fail or no longer meet user needs. These outcomes are frequently shaped by early design decisions. While remanufacturing offers a sustainable alternative by restoring products to like‐new condition, its potential is often limited by designs that do not consider remanufacturing from the outset. This research addresses that challenge by introducing a structured Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) methodology and a CAD‐integrated tool to support real‐time design decisions. The DfRem framework introduces a new primary design function focused on preserving product functionality across its life cycle. It is supported by a fault tree that identifies failure modes that limit remanufacturing potential and a hierarchy of design principles including Prevent, Minimize, Relocate, Restore, and others. Each principle is linked to actionable design rules that help engineers reduce the need for remanufacturing or improve its efficiency when necessary. To operationalize this framework, we developed CAD plugins for Autodesk Inventor and PTC Creo. These tools use a state machine model to present prioritized design rules based on selected failure modes and user input. By embedding DfRem logic directly into widely used CAD environments, the tool enables engineers to make sustainability‐informed decisions without disrupting existing workflows. Furthermore, this approach highlights the critical role of design in enabling circular and resource‐efficient product development, making remanufacturing a more practical and accessible strategy during the early stages of product design.
Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) supports the development of risk-informed safety codes and standards which are employed to enable the safe deployment of hydrogen technologies essential to decarbonize the transportation sector. System reliability data is a necessary input for rigorous QRA. Here, the lack of reliability data for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) storage systems located on site at fueling stations limits the use of QRAs. In turn, this hinders the ability to develop the necessary safety codes and standards that enable worldwide deployment of these stations. Through a QRA-based analysis of a LH 2 storage system, this work focuses on identifying relevant scenario and probability data currently available and ascertaining future data collection requirements regarding risks specific to liquid hydrogen releases. The work developed consists of the analysis of a general bulk LH 2 storage system design located at a hydrogen fueling station. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and traditional QRA modeling tools such as Event Sequence Diagrams (ESD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are employed to identify, rank, and model risk scenarios related to the release of LH 2 . Based on this analysis, scenario and reliability data needs to add LH 2 -related components to QRA are identified with the purpose of improving the future safety and risk assessment of these systems.
We report digital instrumentation and control (I&C) upgrades are a vital research area for the nuclear industry. Despite their performance benefits, deployment of digital I&C in nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been limited. Digital I&C systems exhibit complex failure modes including common cause failures (CCFs), which can be difficult to identify. This paper describes the development of a redundancy-guided application of the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis and fault tree analysis for the hazard analysis of digital I&C in advanced NPPs. The resulting Redundancy-Guided Systems-Theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) is applied for the case study of a representative state-of-the-art digital reactor trip system. The analysis qualitatively and systematically identifies the most critical CCFs and other hazards of digital I&C systems. Ultimately, the RESHA can help researchers make informed decisions for how, and to what degree, defensive measures such as redundancy, diversity, and defense in depth can be used to mitigate or eliminate the potential hazards of digital I&C systems.
In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences, and how likely is it to occur? While this definition makes sense in a regulatory-based framework where for the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs), the risks associated with nuclear power plants typically are characterized in terms of core damage and large early release frequency (LERF), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant from a broader perspective. This is due to the very narrow context in which the term “risk” typically is defined as nuclear safety aspects that have the potential to impact public health. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of nuclear safety that is reflective of the current fleet of operating LWRs for which core damage frequency and LERF are appropriate metrics. For other advanced reactor designs, other more applicable technology neutral metrics of reactor safety metrics would be specified. A possible alternate path would start by redefining the word risk with a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision-making process. Rather than asking how likely an event could occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. Our approach starts by defining and quantifying component and system health in terms of a “distance” between its actual and limiting conditions, i.e., determination of the margin that exists between the current state/condition and the state where the component/system is no longer capable of achieving its intended function. A margin is a measure that is more reflective of the current state or performance of a component, and therefore more closely tied to decisions that are made on an ongoing basis. Further, we will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring (e.g., pump vibration data) and prognostic (e.g., component remaining useful life estimation) data, a margin can be described and determined for all types of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We show how classical reliability models (e.g., fault trees) can be used to quantify the system margin provided component margin values. In the approach described in this paper, the propagation of margin values through classical reliability models are not performed using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed in a typical plant probabilistic risk assessment). Instead, we show how it is possible to propagate margin values through Boolean logic gates (i.e., AND and OR operators) through distance-based operations.
Molten salt reactors (MSRs) offer potential operability and safety advantages when compared to commercial light water reactors (LWRs). However, operating experience with MSRs is sparse in comparison to what exists for LWRs. Further, the chemical and isotopic composition of the fuel and/or coolant salt is dynamic and difficult to characterize continuously, posing potential safety, operability, and safeguards unknowns that need to be addressed. A molten salt sampling system (MSSS) is regarded as a necessary subsystem within first generation MSRs used to obtain samples of salt for chemical and isotopic analysis in support of the need to monitor and control salt composition during operation. The MSSS is being developed using the Safety-in-Design (SiD) methodology, which incorporates incremental integration of safety analysis into the design process. The MSSS conceptual design emerging from the application of the early stages of the SiD methodology consists of a sample collection system and its housing, a freeze port, and inert gas control and delivery systems. This article describes the prototypes developed to test the functions of these MSSS subsystems, presents the results of testing in both dry and molten salt environments (including reliability data collection performed in accordance with the principles of SiD and the development of a semiquantitative fault tree model), and summarizes the opportunities for future design and testing enhancements based on the results of prototype testing.