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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Applications of the BIOPHYS Algorithm for Physically-Based Retrieval of Biophysical, Structural and Forest Disturbance Information

Canopy reflectance model inversion using look-up table approaches provides powerful and flexible options for deriving improved forest biophysical structural information (BSI) compared with traditional statistical empirical methods. The BIOPHYS algorithm is an improved, physically-based inversion approach for deriving BSI for independent use and validation and for monitoring, inventory and quantifying forest disturbance as well as input to ecosystem, climate and carbon models. Based on the multiple-forward mode (MFM) inversion approach, BIOPHYS results were summarized from different studies (Minnesota/NASA COVER; Virginia/LEDAPS; Saskatchewan/BOREAS), sensors (airborne MMR; Landsat; MODIS) and models (GeoSail; GOMS). Applications output included forest density, height, crown dimension, branch and green leaf area, canopy cover, disturbance estimates based on multi-temporal chronosequences, and structural change following recovery from forest fires over the last century. Good correspondences with validation field data were obtained. Integrated analyses of multiple solar and view angle imagery further improved retrievals compared with single pass data. Quantifying ecosystem dynamics such as the area and percent of forest disturbance, early regrowth and succession provide essential inputs to process-driven models of carbon flux. BIOPHYS is well suited for large-area, multi-temporal applications involving multiple image sets and mosaics for assessing vegetation disturbance and quantifying biophysical structural dynamics and change. It is also suitable for integration with forest inventory, monitoring, updating, and other programs.

Peddle, Derek R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Microwave Treatment for Cardiac Arrhythmias

NASA seeks to transfer the NASA developed microwave ablation technology, designed for the treatment of ventricular tachycardia (irregular heart beat), to industry. After a heart attack, many cells surrounding the resulting scar continue to live but are abnormal electrically; they may conduct impulses unusually slowly or fire when they would typically be silent. These diseased areas might disturb smooth signaling by forming a reentrant circuit in the muscle. The objective of microwave ablation is to heat and kill these diseased cells to restore appropriate electrical activity in the heart. This technology is a method and apparatus that provides for propagating microwave energy into heart tissues to produce a desired temperature profile therein at tissue depths sufficient for thermally ablating arrhythmogenic cardiac tissue while preventing excessive heating of surrounding tissues, organs, and blood. A wide bandwidth double-disk antenna is effective for this purpose over a bandwidth of about six gigahertz. A computer simulation provides initial screening capabilities for an antenna such as antenna, frequency, power level, and power application duration. The simulation also allows optimization of techniques for specific patients or conditions. In comparison with other methods that involve direct-current pulses or radio frequencies below 1 GHz, this method may prove more effective in treating ventricular tachycardia. This is because the present method provides for greater control of the location, cross-sectional area, and depth of a lesion via selection of the location and design of the antenna and the choice of microwave power and frequency.

Hernandez-Moya, Sonia↗
NASA NTRS2021

Colorado Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Post-fire Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) Distribution to Inform Management Planning

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a species of concern across the western United States as it has the potential to outcompete native plant species, reduce biodiversity, and diminish nutrient availability for ungulates. Furthermore, because cheatgrass can quickly dominate disturbed landscapes it has the potential to exacerbate wildfire risk by increasing fuel loads. In 2020, the Cameron Peak fire burned more than 200,000 acres on the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests in Colorado. These issues are of imminent concern for our partners at the Forest Service (USFS), as they are tasked with wildfire risk and invasive species mitigation. Disturbances such as wildfires can substantially increase the rate and extent of cheatgrass spread. Current cheatgrass mitigation methods rely on field crews to physically locate cheatgrass on the landscape, which takes time, money, and extensive manpower. Here, we developed two Random Forest models within the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) using remote sensing predictors derived from Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The first model identified suitable cheatgrass habitat while the other detected cheatgrass presence during the 2021 growing season. Topographic variables were found to be the most important in driving the habitat suitability model. Cheatgrass detection was also found to be possible within a short timespan with limited imagery surrounding a phenological shift of the plant. Maps produced from these models provide natural resource managers the ability to implement early detection and rapid response to prevent the spread of cheatgrass to new locations.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
NASA NTRS1993

Test results from a simple, low-cost, pressure-fed liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen rocket combustor

A simple, low-cost rocket engine was designed, fabricated, and successfully hot fire tested over a wide range of interface conditions and operating parameters. The engine used low enthalpy hydrogen (45 to 70 R, 200 to 390 psia) and oxygen (139 to 163 R, 210 to 480 psia) propellants pressure-fed directly from facility cryogenic tanks. The engine demonstrated excellent performance, with 97% average combustion efficiency, and absence of combustion instabilities. Engine design chamber pressure was 300 psia, yielding about 16,500 pounds thrust at sea level with a 3:1 expansion ration test nozzle. The engine used a fixed-element injector based on TRW's unique coaxial pintle design, but was operated at 60%, 80%, and 100% thrust levels by throttling facility propellant valves. The engine was tested at propellant mixture ratios (O/F) from 5.8 to 8.4; design O/F was 6.6. To document combustion stability, in five tests RDX explosive pulse guns were detonated in radial and tangential directions across the combustion chamber during steady-state operation. The largest disturbance consisted of simultaneous detonation of a 20-grain radial gun and a 40-grain tangential gun. In no case was an instability, either feed system mode or chamber acoustic mode, excited. High-frequency piezoelectric pressure transducers documented stable recovery from disturbance overpressures within 40 milliseconds of peak pressure. A total of 67 firing tests, accumulating 149 seconds of firing time above 10% P(sub c), were performed. Since parametric testing required run durations of only 2 to 3 seconds, a heat sink combustion chamber was employed for most runs. To evaluate the feasibility of a low-cost ablative system for a flight engine design, one 20-second continuous firing was conducted with a silicone rubber chamber/throat/nozzle liner cast in one piece directly into the engine. The ablative engine operated at the equivalent of 309 seconds sea level specific impulse, when adjusted to a 98% efficient 6:1 expansion ration nozzle, and 430 seconds vacuum specific impulse, when adjusted to a 98% efficient 50:1 expansion ratio nozzle. This engine and test series represent an initial subscale demonstration of a new booster-class engine that eliminates the cost and complexity associated with regenerative cooling and typical engine cycles. This paper presents a description of the engine design and discussion and summary data plots of the performance measured during the parametric testing.

Dressler, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

This presentation discusses an effort to compute and post weekly MODIS forest change products for the conterminous US (CONUS), as part of national forest threat early warning system (EWS) known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The US Forest Service, NASA, USGS, and ORNL are working collaboratively to contribute weekly change products to this EWS. Large acreages of the nation's forests are being disturbed by a growing multitude of biotic and abiotic threats that can act either singularly or in combination. When common at regional scales, such disturbances can pose hazards and threats to floral and faunal bio-diversity, ecosystem sustainability, ecosystem services, and human settlements across the conterminous US. Regionally evident forest disturbances range from ephemeral periodic canopy defoliation to stand replacement mortality events due to insects, disease, fire, hurricanes, tornadoes, ice, hail, and drought. Mandated by the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003, this forest threat EWS has been actively developed since 2006 and on-line since 2010. This FCAV system employs 250-meter MODIS NDVI-based forest change products as a key element of the system, providing regional and CONUS scale products in near real time every 8 days. Each forest change product in FCAV is based on current versus historical 24 day composite NDVI data gridded at 231.66 meter resolution. Current NDVI is derived from USGS eMODIS expedited products. MOD13 NDVI is used for constructing historical baselines. CONUS change products are computed for all forests as % change in the current versus historical NDVI. Change products are computed according to previous year, previous 3 years and previous 8 year historical baselines. The use of multiple baselines enables disturbance anomaly phenology to be more fully assessed. CONUS forest change products are posted each week on the FCAV, a web mapping service maintained by the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center. The FCAV EWS has been used to aid multiple Federal and State agency forest management activities, including aerial disturbance detection surveys, as well as rapid response preliminary assessments of timber loss due to tornadoes, regional drought studies, and fire damage assessments. The FCAV allows end-users to assess the context of apparent forest vegetation change with respect to ancillary data, such as land cover, topography, hydrology, climate variables, and administrative boundaries. Such change products are being evaluated through case studies involving comparison with higher spatial resolution satellite, aerial, and field data. The presentation will include multiple examples in which regionally evident forest disturbances were successfully detected and monitored with the MODIS-based change products, as part of the FCAV. FCAV's MODIS forest change products enable end-users (e.g., resource managers) to monitor forest hazards at regional scales throughout the year and across the nation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Fine pointing of the Solar Optical Telescope in the Space Shuttle environment

Instruments requiring fine (i.e., sub-arcsecond) pointing, such as the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT), must be equipped with two-stage pointing devices, coarse and fine. Coarse pointing will be performed by a gimbal system, such as the Instrument Pointing System, while the image motion compensation (IMC) will provide fine pointing. This paper describes work performed on the SOT concept design that illustrates IMC as applied to SOT. The SOT control system was modeled in the frequency domain to evaluate performance, stability, and bandwidth requirements. The two requirements of the pointing control, i.e., the 2 arcsecond reproducibility and 0.03 arcsecond rms pointing jitter, can be satisfied by use of IMC at about 20 Hz bandwidth. The need for this high bandwidth is related to Shuttle-induced disturbances that arise primarily from man push-offs and vernier thruster firings. A block diagram of SOT model/stability analysis, schematic illustrations of the SOT pointing system, and a structural model summary are included.

Gowrinathan, S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
NASA NTRS1983

Method of damping nutation motion with minimum spin axis attitude disturbance

In a method of and apparatus for damping nutation of a spinning spacecraft, spin axis attitude disturbances are substantially reduced by controlling at least one nutation damping gas thruster to fire with nonuniform gas pulses. During the beginning of a nutation control sequence, the duration of successive gas pulses is gradually increased (up pulsed) from zero to a predetermined maximum duration. The duration of successive pulses is then maintained constant for a time period. Finally, at the end of the nutation control sequence, the duration of successive gas pulses is gradually reduced to zero (down pulsed). Up pulsing of the gas thruster is initiated in response to a predetermined maximum nutation angle measured by an accelerometer. Down pulsing of the thruster is initiated in response to a predetermined minimum nutation angle.

Hoffman, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Barrett, K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Hybridized polymer matrix composites

Design approaches and materials are described from which are fabricated pyrostatic graphite/epoxy (Gr/Ep) laminates that show improved retention of graphite particulates when subjected to burning. Sixteen hybridized plus two standard Gr/Ep laminates were designed, fabricated, and tested in an effort to eliminate the release of carbon (graphite) fiber particles from burned/burning, mechanically disturbed samples. The term pyrostatic is defined as meaning mechanically intact in the presence of fire. Graphite particulate retentive laminates were constructed whose constituent materials, cost of fabrication, and physical and mechanical properties were not significantly different from existing Gr/Ep composites. All but one laminate (a Celion graphite/bis-maleimide polyimide) were based on an off-the-shelf Gr/Ep, the AS-1/3501-5A system. Of the 16 candidates studied, four thin (10-ply) and four thick (50-ply) hybridized composites are recommended.

London, A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Northern Colorado Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Relationships between Snowpack and Wildfires for Water Utility Management

In recent years, wildfires in the western U.S. have increased in size, frequency, and severity. Colorado is no exception to this trend, with many recent wildfires raising concerns. The Cameron Peak and East Troublesome Fires, the two largest recorded wildfires in Colorado history, burned over 400,000 acres in 2020. Wildfires pose a significant threat to high-elevation ecosystems, especially in terms of disturbances to watershed resources. Colorado’s annual water supply is dependent upon the melt and runoff of high-elevation snowpack, thus understanding wildfire effects is crucial. This project partnered with Northern Water, a water management company in Colorado, to explore fire impacts on Colorado Front Range watersheds and water supply forecasts. We investigated the use of remote sensing to study the influences of wildfire on snow depth, as Northern Water had previously relied on field-based observations of snowpack for their water supply forecasts. This project utilized airborne LiDAR data from Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc., Landsat 8 OLI derived products, as well as in situ snow survey data from Colorado State University to assess and model changes in snowpack over time. We uncovered key drivers of change in snowpack such as burn severity and snow zone and created a random forest model to determine and investigate their relationships. Despite temporal data availability limitations, analysis also showed that remotely-sensed snow depth measurements were strongly correlated with in situ snow depth measurements, revealing the accuracy and feasibility of using remote sensing technologies to study landscape-scale snowpack characteristics for water utility management purposes.

airborne LiDAR↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamics and control of the Space Station Freedom docking/array feathering maneuver

Analysis performed at Lewis Research Center has indicated that it is possible to fail a photovoltaic array of the Space Station Freedom during a Shuttle approach, due to impingements by Shuttle attitude jet firing plumes. A solution to this potential problem is the feathering of the arrays. This study deals with fine adjustments in feathered position for extra plume load relief. A mathematical model for fine feathering is described. The Shuttle is treated as a single rigid body, with prescribed jet firings. Freedom is treated as a system of rigid bodies, with high-fidelity gimbal dynamics. Uncertainty is found in disturbances, plume dynamic pressure, gimbal friction and misalignments. Assumptions, model structure and analysis test plan are presented.

Graham, Ronald E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The microgravity environment of the D1 mission

Some characteristic features and results of D1 microgravity measurements are discussed as performed in the Material Science Double Rack (MSDR) and the Materials Science Double Rack for Experiment Modules and Apparatus (MEDEA). Starting with a brief review of the main potential disturbances, the payload aspects of interest to the analysis and the accelerometer measuring systems are described. The microgravity data are analyzed with respect to selected mission events such as thruster firings for attitude control, operations of Spacelab experiment facilities, vestibular experiments and crew activities. The origins are divided into orbit, vehicle, and experiment induced perturbations. It has been found that the microgravity-environment is dictated mainly by payload-induced perturbations. To reduce the microgravity-level, the design of some experiment facilities has to be improved by minimizing the number of moving parts, decoupling of disturbing units from experiment facilities, by taking damping measures, etc. In addition, strongly disturbing experiments and very sensitive investigations should be performed in separate mission phases.

Hamacher, H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Effect of Acoustic Disturbances on the Operation of the Space Shuttle Main Engine Fuel Flowmeter

The Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) uses a turbine fuel flowmeter (FFM) in its Low Pressure Fuel Duct (LPFD) to measure liquid hydrogen flowrates during engine operation. The flowmeter is required to provide accurate and robust measurements of flow rates ranging from 10000 to 18000 GPM in an environment contaminated by duct vibration and duct internal acoustic disturbances. Errors exceeding 0.5% can have a significant impact on engine operation and mission completion. The accuracy of each sensor is monitored during hot-fire engine tests on the ground. Flow meters which do not meet requirements are not flown. Among other parameters, the device is screened for a specific behavior in which a small shift in the flow rate reading is registered during a period in which the actual fuel flow as measured by a facility meter does not change. Such behavior has been observed over the years for specific builds of the FFM and must be avoided or limited in magnitude in flight. Various analyses of the recorded data have been made prior to this report in an effort to understand the cause of the phenomenon; however, no conclusive cause for the shift in the instrument behavior has been found. The present report proposes an explanation of the phenomenon based on interactions between acoustic pressure disturbances in the duct and the wakes produced by the FFM flow straightener. Physical insight into the effects of acoustic plane wave disturbances was obtained using a simple analytical model. Based on that model, a series of three-dimensional unsteady viscous flow computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed using the MSFC PHANTOM turbomachinery code. The code was customized to allow the FFM rotor speed to change at every time step according to the instantaneous fluid forces on the rotor, that, in turn, are affected by acoustic plane pressure waves propagating through the device. The results of the simulations show the variation in the rotation rate of the flowmeter due to the interaction of the flow straightener wakes and the upstream propagating acoustic waves. A detailed analysis of the acoustic disturbance effects is presented along with an assessment of the impact on measurement accuracy.

Marcu, Bogdan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploring the Role of Humans and Climate over the Balkan Landscape: 500 Years of Vegetational History of Serbia

We present the first, well-dated, high-resolution record of vegetation and landscape change from Serbia, which spans the past 500 years. Biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical analysis through X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS C-14 dating from a western Serbian sinkhole core suggest complex woodland-grassland dynamics and strong erosional signals throughout the Little Ice Age (LIA). An open landscape with prominent steppe vegetation (e.g. Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae) and minor woodland exists during 1540-1720 CE (early LIA), while the late LIA (1720-1850 CE) in this record shows higher tree percentages possibly due to increased moisture availability. The post LIA Era (1850-2012 CE) brings a disturbed type of vegetation with the presence of weedy genera and an increase in regional woodland. Anthropogenic indicators for agricultural, pastoral and fire practices in the region together attest to the dominant role of humans in shaping this Balkan landscape throughout the interval. The changing nature of human interference, potentially as a response to underlying climatic transitions, is evident through large-scale soil depletion resulting from grazing and land clearance during the early LIA and stabilization of arable lands during the late and post-LIA eras.

Topography↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Double Bootstrap Approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to Evaluate Response Uncertainty

The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications.

Dendroclimatology↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ten Years of Forest Cover Change in the Sierra Nevada Detected Using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology was applied to detected changes in forest vegetation cover for areas burned by wildfires in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California between the periods of 1975- 79 and 1995-1999. Results for areas burned by wildfire between 1995 and 1999 confirmed the importance of regrowing forest vegetation over 17% of the combined burned areas. A notable fraction (12%) of the entire 5-km (unburned) buffer area outside the 1995-199 fires perimeters showed decline in forest cover, and not nearly as many regrowing forest areas, covering only 3% of all the 1995-1999 buffer areas combined. Areas burned by wildfire between 1975 and 1979 confirmed the importance of disturbed (or declining evergreen) vegetation covering 13% of the combined 1975- 1979 burned areas. Based on comparison of these results to ground-based survey data, the LEDAPS methodology should be capable of fulfilling much of the need for consistent, low-cost monitoring of changes due to climate and biological factors in western forest regrowth following stand-replacing disturbances.

Vegetation↗