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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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136 records · Page 6
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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Origin of Palimpsests

Palimpsests are the most enigmatic impact features observed on icy worlds of the Solar System. Palimpsests are large impact features which are bright, old, mostly flat, and roughly circular. They range from >150 to ~350 km in diameter and sometimes exhibit recognizable associated radial secondary ejecta crater strings beyond their rims. Curiously, among all the Solar System's icy worlds, palimpsests are exclusively seen on the icy Galilean moons. Palimpsests are obviously different than similarly sized impact features seen on other icy satellites. For example, Evander, a 350 km diameter peak-ring impact basin on Saturn’s moon Dione, has a very low depth/diameter ratio of 0.008, indicating significant viscous relaxation. Nevertheless, it still retains short wavelength topography including a prominent central peak, peak ring, and a continuous rim, none of which are seen at palimpsests. Palimpsests display an approximately circular, and dominating, expanse of undulating plains, which is level with surrounding terrain and shows no recognizable rim. At the center of palimpsests are smooth central plains that are enclosed by a low scarp. Central plains material superposes the surrounding undulating plains and is littered with small blocks reminiscent of “small chaos” on Europa. Palimpsests have yet to be explored using modern impact simulation tools. We have begun to investigate two competing hypotheses: (A) Palimpsests form on targets which have a preexisting near-subsurface layer that is liquid or solid but very weak, and is excavated as proximal ejecta; or (B) They form in a solid ice target underlain by a steep thermal gradient that strongly influences the resulting impact feature, including the production of impact-induced melting at depth that is then a major component of proximal ejecta. Our results will have profound implications for the early thermal history of the icy Galilean satellites. We will test our two hypotheses for the formation of palimpsests on Ganymede (where they are both best observed and preserved) by means of 2D iSALE hydrodynamic simulations of impacts into ice targets that will be structured according to the scenarios for each hypothesis, with select runs in 3D. We have already conducted a pilot study using 2D iSALE that has yielded promising results, which we will report out at the meeting.

palimpsests↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the γ-Ray Emission from FR0 Radio Galaxies

Abstract FR0 galaxies constitute the most abundant jet population in the local Universe. With their compact jet structure, they are broadband photon emitters and have been proposed as multimessenger sources. Recently, these sources have been detected for the first time inγrays. Using a revised FR0 catalog, we confirm that the FR0 population as a whole areγ-ray emitters, and we also identify two significant sources. For the first time, we find a correlation between the 5 GHz core radio luminosity andγ-ray luminosity in the 1–800 GeV band, having a 4.8σstatistical significance. This is clear evidence that the jet emission mechanism is similar in nature for FR0s and the well-studied canonical FR (FRI and FRII) radio galaxies. Furthermore, we perform broadband spectral energy distribution modeling for the significantly detected sources as well as the subthreshold source population using a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. Within the maximum jet power budget, our modeling shows that the detectedγrays from the jet can be explained as inverse Compton photons. To explain the multiwavelength observations for these galaxies, the modeling results stipulate a low bulk Lorentz factor and a jet composition far from equipartition, with the particle energy density dominating over the magnetic field energy density.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS2026

Application of Energy-efficient Electromagnetic Melt-Processing for the Upcycling of Recycled Polyphenylene Sulfide into Multifunctional Segregated Nanocomposites

Polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) is widely used in structural and functional composites because of its thermal stability, chemical resistance, and mechanical strength. As circular manufacturing becomes increasingly important, extending the service life of recycled PPS (rPPS) is essential. However, conventional high-temperature reprocessing accelerates thermo-oxidative degradation, reducing recycled composite performance. This study proposes a rapid and potentially energy-saving upcycling strategy for rPPS using electromagnetic (EM) melt-processing to form segregated carbon nanotube (CNT) networks and produce EM-responsive nanocomposites. The aim was to determine whether CNT-assisted EM heating could reduce polymer degradation while improving multifunctional properties at ultralow filler loadings. rPPS micropellets were coated with CNTs by ball milling to create conductive shells, then compacted into green bodies (GBs) and selectively melted by rapid EM irradiation. Structural, electrical, mechanical, rheological, and electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding properties were evaluated. Electrical percolation occurred at an ultralow CNT loading of 0.08 wt%, with conductivity reaching (1.24 ± 0.74) × 10 -5 S⋅m -1 at 0.1 wt%. At this concentration, tensile strength and modulus increased by 72% and 99%, respectively. At ~ 0.7 mm thickness, X-band EMI shielding effectiveness reached 6 dB for GBs and 3 dB after EM processing. This shows that EM melt-processing upcycles rPPS into high-performance multifunctional nanocomposites with minimum thermal degradation.

recycled↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solid-State Syntheses, Crystallographic Spatial Disorders, Thermal Behaviors, and Bandgaps of Hybrid Organic-Inorganic Manganese Halides: A2Mn(Cl/Br)4 (A = NH4+, C(NH2)3+, & C3H4N2+)

By systematically optimizing solid-state synthesis via the concerted use of differential scanning calorimetry and in-situ variable-temperature X-ray diffraction, we report the discovery of four new hybrid organic-inorganic manganese halides A2Mn(Cl/Br)4 (A = NH4+, C(NH2)3+, C3H4N2+), with emphasis on how the organic fragment geometry, polarity, and electron-donating properties influence crystallographic spatial disorders, thermal behaviors, and optical band gaps. With a nonpolar tetrahedral cation, as in (NH4)2MnCl4 (P21/c, mP30) or (NH4)2MnBr4 (C2/c, mC180), the direct optical bandgaps (4.36–4.28 eV) are wider than those with an organic nonpolar planar geometry, as in (C(NH2)3)2MnBr4 (P21/c, mP300, 4.07 eV), or an organic polar planar geometry, as in (C3H4N2+)2MnBr4 (I41/a, tI384, 4.05 eV). Furthermore, the organic components affect the spatial arrangement and dimensionality of the resulting inorganic frameworks comprised of Mn(Cl/Br)6 octahedra, with varying distortions, or spatially disordered MnBr4 tetrahedra. These resulting trends, coupled with the systematic investigation into synthesis, and the motivation behind elucidating the nuanced role of the organic cation, altogether expand upon the phase-space of hybrid materials beyond perovskites and demonstrate the potential for a rational design of hybrid materials with tailored optoelectronic functionalities for advanced energy applications.

Lee, Shannon J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of gold nanorod systems for enhanced total efficiency: Experimental and numerical analysis

This study investigates the photothermal performance of gold nanorods engineered to exhibit longitudinal plasmon resonances at 695 nm, 780 nm, and 970 nm. The work combines synthesis, structural characterization, extinction measurements, numerical modeling, and controlled temperature experiments to quantify how nanorod geometry, resonance tuning, concentration, and chamber shape jointly influence heat generation. Transmission electron microscopy confirms that increasing nanorod aspect ratio systematically shifts the longitudinal plasmon peak toward the near-infrared region. Extinction measurements show strong agreement with theoretical predictions, validating the numerical model across two independent datasets. Three chamber geometries were tested under laser excitation at 640 nm, 808 nm, and 980 nm: an ascending stepped base, a flat base, and a descending stepped base. Without nanorods, the ascending geometry produced the highest efficiency due to enhanced natural convection. After introducing gold nanorods, all geometries exhibited substantial thermal enhancement, with total efficiencies exceeding 20%. The strongest improvement was obtained for nanorods resonant at 780 nm with a mass concentration of 4.6 mg/mL implemented on the descending stepped-base geometry. This performance resulted from the combined effect of spectral overlapping with the 808 nm laser, the highest nanorod concentration, and localized heat accumulation that intensified buoyancy-driven flow. The findings demonstrate that total efficiency is governed by a synergistic interplay between optical resonance, nanoparticle concentration, and macroscopic chamber design, revealing the system-level coupling between nanoscale plasmonic absorption and macroscale heat-transfer phenomena. The results provide a validated framework for tuning nanoscale plasmonic absorbers and optimizing thermal systems for applications requiring efficient light-to-heat conversion.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2026

Landsat Instrument Suite (LandIS) Sensor Design for the Landsat 10 Mission

Landsat 10 will be the upcoming mission in the 50+ year Landsat series of Earth observation platforms. The centerpiece of the observatory will be a super-spectral imager known as the Landsat Instrument Suite (LandIS). The sensor will feature 26 spectral channels from the visible through near-, short-wave, and thermal infrared wavelengths with spatial resolutions of 10, 20, and 60 meters on the ground, depending on the band. These enhancements over the legacy Landsat instruments will ensure data continuity with the existing archive and will expand upon the core Landsat capabilities to enable new applications in Earth science. After a competitive procurement, NASA selected the design submitted by the Raytheon Company for the LandIS instrument. The innovative Raytheon instrument concept utilizes an advanced whiskbroom architecture to fulfill the strict radiometric, spatial, and geometric image quality requirements demanded by the Landsat 10 mission and fits within restrictive mass, volume, and power constraints. The instrument will continue the Landsat directive to image all daylit land and near-shore water areas, along with select nighttime imaging. On-board calibration source data will ensure high radiometric and geometric accuracy and stability consistent with previous missions to enable continuity in data products available to users. This paper discusses the driving requirements for LandIS and provides a description of the chosen design and operations concept of the instrument.

Requirements↗
NASA NTRS2026

Ice in Convective Storm Environments: Assessing Impacts of Microphysics on Simulated Reflectivities

Satellite radar retrievals of clouds and precipitation rely on assumptions about the microphysical properties of hydrometeors such as particle size distributions (PSDs) and massdimensional relationships, which have been shown to vary in distinct environments. A deeper understanding of linkages between mass-dimensional relationships, ice crystal shape, and radar reflectivities across cloud and precipitation regimes is necessary for developing new retrievals for upcoming satellite radar missions, including the INvestigation of Convective UpdraftS (INCUS), as well as future missions that will feature space-borne radars observing clouds, convection, and precipitation. This study investigates ice microphysical characteristics through aircraft in-situ and remote sensing observations from two convective events during the Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) in the Southern Great Plains, and tests implications for ice particle habit in forward modeled radar observations. During MC3E, the Ka/Ku- band High Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP) was onboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft, while in-situ measurements were taken onboard the University of North Dakota Citation. In-situ PSDs and particle shape information from optical array probe data are used to forward model radar reflectivities from particle scattering databases and are compared against HIWRAP reflectivities. Various particle combinations can be used to find agreement with HIWRAP observations, and the forward modeled reflectivities were sensitive to particle type. Varying the riming on the aggregate and graupel particles resulted in larger than 10 dB differences in reflectivities. The in-situ and radar observations imply the occurrence of aggregation, size sorting and lofting particles.

Julia A. Shates↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reduced fast-ion transport calculations of m = n = 1 fishbone-like instabilities in MAST-U

Fast-ion transport associated with an m = n = 1 fishbone-like burst in MAST-U discharge 47128 is investigated using a reduced guiding-center-based transport model (ORBIT-Kick) constrained by multi-diagnostic measurements. The two-dimensional beam-emission spectroscopy system provides measurements of the core poloidal mode structure and fluctuation amplitude, while EFIT++ reconstructions constrained by the motional Stark effect diagnostic indicate a flat q-profile with q 0 > 1⁠, indicating the absence of a resonant q = 1 surface and supporting a pressure-driven infernal-mode interpretation. Analytic m = n = 1 displacement profiles consistent with the measured core mode structure and equilibrium constraints are used as the mode structure inputs to ORBIT-Kick. The calculations show that the dominant resonances occur between the mode and co-passing fast ions, producing redistribution localized near the magnetic axis. Synthetic neutron camera signals from TRANSP-Kick recover up to 90% of the experimentally observed neutron deficit at the time of peak mode amplitude, indicating that the measured m = n = 1 mode is a dominant contributor to core fast-ion transport. However, the synthetic neutron signals recover rapidly, whereas the measured neutron emission continues to decrease after the peak amplitude. In conclusion, the remaining discrepancy may arise from contributions not included in the present single-harmonic model, including higher-m and higher-n harmonics, multi-harmonic interactions, and additional transport mechanisms, motivating future diagnostic development and modeling efforts to resolve and incorporate these additional contributions.

Wong, Henry H. [University of California, Los Ange↗
NASA NTRS2026

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photophysical and Time‐resolved Infrared Properties of Long‐Lived Rhenium(I) 4,5‐Diazafluorene Tricarbonyl Chromophores

This report investigates the synthesis, structural characterization, fundamental molecular photophysics, electrochemistry, UV-Vis spectroelectrochemistry, and time-resolved infrared spectroscopic properties of eight [fac-Re(dafR)(CO) 3 L] 0/+ complexes, where R=ethyl [(dedaf); 1, 3, 5, 7] or H [(dafH); 2, 4, 6, 8] and L=Cl− (1, 2), imidazole [(Im); 3, 4], 4-ethylpyridine [(4-Etpy); 5, 6], or pyridine [(py); 7, 8]. Universally, 1–8 yield higher energy photoluminescence (PL) emission bands and higher PL quantum yields (up to 53 %) than the classic 2,2’-bipyridine (bpy) and 1,10-phenanthroline (phen) ligated Re(I) tricarbonyl complexes. The excited state lifetimes of 1–8 lie between those corresponding to the bpy and phen derivatives, ranging from 120 and 1300 ns at room temperature. Combinations of reductive UV-Vis spectroelectrochemistry, transient absorption spectroscopy, and time-resolved infrared spectroscopy consistently assigned the lowest excited states in 1–8 being of metal-to-ligand charge transfer (MLCT) character. These new ReI MLCT chromophores follow classic energy gap law behavior and possess the characteristics necessary for serving as valuable photosensitizers suitable to energize excited state electron and energy transfer photochemistry.

Charge transfer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Findings of the Experimental Development Unit Cold Flow Test for a Generation Zero Nuclear Propulsion Engine

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) technology will greatly benefit human travel to Mars by significantly shortening transit times, improving crew safety, and providing more mission flexibility than traditional chemical rockets. As part of DRACO follow-on work to develop, build, and fly a generation zero NTP engine, a full scale flight-like experimental design unit (EDU) reactor was constructed to collect sufficient on-ground performance data to characterize flow induced vibrations (FIV) of critical reactor structures/components, inform development of the engine and reactor control algorithm, and collect pressure drop and flow distribution data across the reactor. The fluid conditions for the test program were designed to achieve system responses equivalent to that of an operational engine through all phases of engine operation including reactor startup, mainstage operation, reactor shutdown, and reactor cooldown. Over 100 tests were executed, flowing either GN2 or GHe through the EDU at varying flow rates and pressures. This experiment provided early validation of flow behavior and vibration risks before nuclear testing, boosted critical subsystem TRLs, informed design iterations, and reduced future test costs. The steady-state flow parameters for the experiment were modeled in Ansys Thermal Desktop, allowing rapid tuning and experiment-informed updates to a flight-like test matrix. The EDU dynamic environment was characterized with accelerometers, strain gauges, and high-frequency pressure transducers all sampled at 20 kHz. While many narrow-band oscillations were identified, no significant FIV occurred; the reactor structural responses tend to be enveloped by typical launch vehicle ascent vibration environments (defined up to 2 kHz), although significant energy is also present at higher frequencies.

Flow Induced Vibration↗
NASA NTRS2013

Colors of Jupiter's large anticyclones and the interaction of a Tropical Red Oval with the Great Red Spot in 2008

The nature and mechanisms producing the chromophore agents that provide color to the upper clouds and hazes of the atmospheres of the giant planets are largely unknown. In recent times, the changes in red coloration that have occurred in large- and medium-scale Jovian anticyclones have been particularly interesting. In late June and early July 2008, a particularly color-intense red tropical oval interacted with the Great Red Spot (GRS) leading to the destruction of the red tropical oval and cloud dispersion. We present a detailed study of the tropical vortices, usually white but sometimes red, and a characterization of their color spectral signatures and dynamics. From the spectral reflectivity in methane bands we study their vertical cloud structure compared to that of the GRS and BA. Using two spectral indices we found a near-correlation between anticyclones cloud top altitudes and red color. We present detailed observations of the interaction of the red oval with the GRS and model simulations of the phenomena that allow us to constrain the relative vertical extent of the vortices. We conclude that the vertical cloud structure, vertical extent and dynamics of Jovian anticyclones are not the causes of their coloration. We propose that the red chromophore forms when background material (a compound or particles) is entrained by the vortex, transforming into red once inside the vortex due to internal conditions, exposure to ultraviolet radiation or to the mixing of two chemical compounds that react inside the vortex, confined by a potential vorticity ring barrier.

red color↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultrafast One-Dimensional Peierls-Distortion Dynamics in 1⁢T′−Re⁢S 2 Revealed by 4D Electron Microscopy

Rhenium disulfide (ReS 2 ), a prototypical 2D semiconductor with an anisotropic 1⁢T′ structure due to the pronounced Peierls distortion, has demonstrated great potential for polarization-dependent optoelectronics and photonics. Here, we report an ultrafast phase transition occurring within 1 ps, accompanied by a one-dimensional Peierls-distortion relaxation in 1⁢T′−ReS 2 revealed with combined 4D electron microscopy and time-dependent density functional theory calculations. Upon femtosecond laser pulse excitation, the Re-Re dimerization morphology rapidly transforms from a diamond cluster to zigzag chains and persists for several nanoseconds. Here, this ultrafast Peierls-distortion relaxation is further verified by transient changes in optical anisotropy via polarization-dependent transient absorption spectroscopy. Time-dependent density functional theory calculations attribute this novel phase transition to strong correlation between Peierls distortion and impulsive photoexcited carrier doping, predicting a transient band-gap collapse. This Letter opens up an exciting avenue for ultrafast control of Peierls-distortion-induced anisotropy and the metal-insulator transition in 1⁢T′−ReS 2 .

1T’-ReS2↗
DOE OSTI2026

Collapse of magnetized white dwarfs as site of heavy-element formation and kilonova signal

We present the first end-to-end calculation connecting the accretion-induced collapse (AIC) of a magnetized, rapidly rotating white dwarf to observable kilonova signatures, combining two-dimensional (2D) general-relativistic neutrino-magnetohydrodynamic simulations, followed by radiation hydrodynamics with in-situ nuclear network and 2D Monte Carlo radiative transfer with spatially resolved heating rates. Unlike all previous unmagnetized AIC models – which predicted proton-rich, $^{56}$Ni-dominated ejecta – strong magnetic fields eject ${\approx }\, 0.2\, \mathrm{ M}_\odot$ of neutron-rich material ($\langle Y_e \rangle \sim 0.24$) on dynamical time-scales, before neutrino irradiation can raise the electron fraction, enabling strong r-process nucleosynthesis up to and beyond the third peak. The resulting kilonova is lanthanide-rich ($X_{\rm lan} \approx 8~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) and dominated by near-infrared emission. We compute synthetic light curves in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and J ames Webb Space Telescope bands and find striking agreement, without parameter tuning, between the observations of AT 2023vfi/GRB 230307A and our broadband light curves for polar viewing angles. These results establish magnetized AIC as a viable channel for heavy r-process element production and a compelling progenitor candidate for long-duration gamma-ray bursts with kilonova signatures.

MHD↗
NASA NTRS2026

Optimization of X-ray Absorbers for High-Resolution TES Detectors in NewATHENA X-IFU

NewATHENA’s X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) uses a large-format array of Transition Edge Sensor (TES) microcalorimeters coupled with absorbers made of gold and bismuth providing 4 eV FWHM resolution up to 7 keV in the 0.2- 12 keV band. X-ray absorbers must be thick enough for photon absorption, maintain low heat capacity for energy resolution, and have good thermalization properties. The X-IFU requires total Quantum Efficiency (QE) of 96%, 87%, and 63% at 1, 7, and 9.5 keV, respectively. Optimal thicknesses are 1.05 µm gold and 5.5 µm bismuth to achieve 0.731 pJ/K at 90 mK and 87% QE at 7 keV. While typical TES absorbers are 3-4 µm thick, producing the required 5.5 µm Bi absorbers via standard electroplating creates enlarged grains and surface roughness. The increased roughness and grain size variability produced with our standard recipe have resulted in instances of 1) low energy spectral tails 2) spectral broadening of the energy resolution and 3) thermal shorts between pixels when a large grain bridges the gap between absorbers. In this study, we have introduced a new fabrication process and altered the morphology of the thick Bi through changes in the electroplating process. The process changes are intended to address all three issues as well as reduce particulate contamination observed on the finished detector arrays.

Absorber↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Pressure Synthesis of Ultrasmall Nanodiamonds with Nitrogen Vacancy Centers

C–H terminated nanometer scale diamonds ( d = 1 to 15 nm) are synthesized from 1-fluoroadamantane at high pressure (6–8 GPa) and high temperature (500–1500 °C) in a multianvil press. High resolution transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, Raman, diffuse reflectance Fourier transform infrared, and X-ray absorption spectroscopies demonstrate the excellent crystallinity and atomically flat C–H terminated surfaces of nanodiamonds with (111) and (110) facets. The importance of hydrogen to the synthesis of nanodiamond and its faceting is discussed. Following vacancy generation, annealing and oxidation of the nanodiamonds, optically detected magnetic resonance and electron spin resonance coherence times ( T 2 = 0.9 and 2.1 μs) of nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers are measured. Finally, the obtained T 2 values are equivalent to the shallow NV centers (depth <10 nm) in bulk diamond crystals and larger nanocrystals prepared by mechanical milling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Derivation of low-energy Hamiltonians for heavy-fermion materials

Here, by utilizing a multiorbital periodic Anderson model with parameters obtained from ab initio band structure calculations, combined with degenerate perturbation theory, we derive effective Kondo-Heisenberg and spin Hamiltonians that capture the interaction among the effective magnetic moments. This derivation encompasses fluctuations via both nonmagnetic 4⁢𝑓 0 and magnetic 4⁢𝑓 2 virtual states, and its accuracy is confirmed through comparison with experimental data obtained from CeIn 3 . The significant agreement observed between experimental results and theoretical predictions underscores the potential of deriving minimal models from first-principles calculations for achieving a quantitative description of 4⁢𝑓 materials. Moreover, our microscopic derivation unveils the underlying origin of anisotropy in the exchange interaction between Kramers doublets, shedding light on the conditions under which this anisotropy may be weak compared to the isotropic contribution.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗