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NASA NTRS1992

Large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in a simplified coupled model of the midlatitude wintertime circulation

Midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interactions are studied in simulations from a simplified coupled model that includes synoptic-scale atmospheric variability, ocean current advection of SST, and air-sea heat exchange. Although theoretical dynamical ('identical twin') predictions using this model have shown that the SST anomalies in this model indeed influence the atmosphere, it is found here that standard cross correlation and empirical orthogonal function analyses of monthly mean model output yield the standard result, familiar from observational studies, that the atmosphere forces the ocean with little or no feedback. Therefore, these analyses are inconclusive and leave open the question of whether anomalous SST is influencing the atmosphere. In contrast, it is found that compositing strong warm events of model SST is a useful indicator of ocean forcing the atmosphere. Additional evidence is presented for oceanic influence on the atmosphere, namely, that ocean current advection appears to enhance the persistence of model SST anomalies through a feedback effect that is absent when only heat flux is allowed to influence SST anomaly evolution.

Miller, Arthur J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗

DOE OSTI2022

‘Flux+Mutability’: a conditional generative approach to one-class classification and anomaly detection

Abstract Anomaly Detection is becoming increasingly popular within the experimental physics community. At experiments such as the Large Hadron Collider, anomaly detection is growing in interest for finding new physics beyond the Standard Model. This paper details the implementation of a novel Machine Learning architecture, called Flux+Mutability, which combines cutting-edge conditional generative models with clustering algorithms. In the ‘flux’ stage we learn the distribution of a reference class. The ‘mutability’ stage at inference addresses if data significantly deviates from the reference class. We demonstrate the validity of our approach and its connection to multiple problems spanning from one-class classification to anomaly detection. In particular, we apply our method to the isolation of neutral showers in an electromagnetic calorimeter and show its performance in detecting anomalous dijets events from standard QCD background. This approach limits assumptions on the reference sample and remains agnostic to the complementary class of objects of a given problem. We describe the possibility of dynamically generating a reference population and defining selection criteria via quantile cuts. Remarkably this flexible architecture can be deployed for a wide range of problems, and applications like multi-class classification or data quality control are left for further exploration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stanford Thermal Earth Model for the Conterminous United States

Provided here are various forms of the Stanford Thermal Earth Model, as well as the data and methods used for its creation. The predictions produced by this model were visualized in two-dimensional spatial maps across the modeled depths (0-7 km) for the conterminous United States. The thermal earth model is made available as an application programming interface (API) and as feature layers on ArcGIS, which are both provided via links below. A data-driven spatial interpolation algorithm based on physics-informed graph neural networks was used to develop these national temperature-at-depth maps. The model satisfied the three-dimensional heat conduction law by predicting subsurface temperature, surface heat flow, and rock thermal conductivity. Many physical quantities, including bottomhole temperature, depth, geographic coordinates, elevation, sediment thickness, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly, gamma-ray flux of radioactive elements, seismicity, and electric conductivity were used as model inputs. Surface heat flow, temperature, and thermal conductivity predictions were constructed for depths of 0-7 km at an interval of 1 km with spatial resolution of 18 km2 per grid cell. The model showed superior temperature, surface heat flow and thermal conductivity mean absolute errors of 4.8C, 8.1 mW/m2 and 0.07 W/(C-m), respectively..

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1979

A study of the Rima Sirsalis lunar magnetic anomaly

The source of the lunar magnetic anomaly associated with the Rima Sirsalis linear rille has been modelled using the vector field intensities due to arbitrary uniform magnetization in a rectangular prism. It is shown that in order to match the Apollo 16 subsatellite data, the lunar surface near the rille must have a vertical magnetization of 6,000-9,000 G if the anomaly is due to flux leakage from a gap in the crust with the dimensions of the rille. An alternative explanation is that Rima Sirsalis and its surroundings are the site of a vertical magnetization contrast of 100,000-10,000 G which is at least as wide as the rille and extends to a depth of tens of kilometers in the crust. A wider magnetic source reduces the required magnetization (or depth) proportionately, since to first order the field at high altitude is proportional to the magnetic dipole moment per unit length.

Srnka, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon fluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle, we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduce seasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to both total productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models represent phenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in dryland ecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in both moisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure of existing phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized model parameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, we modified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation of grass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance were associated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to better capture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R(exp 2) = 0.75) and gross primary productivity (R(exp 2) = 0.84), though its ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new model also resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findings demonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecast climate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model↗

NASA NTRS1981

Nighttime observations of 0.2- to 26-keV electrons in the South Atlantic anomaly made by Atmosphere Explorer C

Atmosphere Explorer C satellite observations have determined that the flux of low energy ions in the South Atlantic Anomaly is much smaller than that of electrons, allowing the satellite's low-energy ion detector to monitor the high-energy background and correct the low-energy electron detector accordingly. It is shown that the electron spectra can be represented by a power law in the range 0.2-26.0 keV, with the spectral index close to -1.0, and that the mean energy flux carried by electrons in the middle of the anomaly is about 0.003 erg/sq cm/sec and may reach 5 times this value. Maps of the downward energy flux are included.

Gledhill, J. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interaction between cloud–radiation, atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics based on observational data from GoAmazon 2014/15 and a cloud-resolving model

Observational meteorological data from the field experiment GoAmazon 2014/15 and data from numerical simulations with the cloud-resolving model (CRM) called the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) are used to study the interaction between the cloudiness–radiation as well as the atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics variables for a site located in the central Amazon region (–3.2°S, –60.6°W) during the wet and dry periods. The main aims are to (a) analyze the temporal series of the integrated cloud fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux as well as (b) to determine the relationship between the integrated cloud fraction, radiative fluxes and large-scale variable anomalies as a function of the previous day's average. The temporal series of the integrated cloud fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux from SAM simulations showed physical consistency with the observations from GoAmazon 2014/15. Shallow and deep convection clouds show to have a meaningful impact on radiation fluxes in the Amazon region during wet and dry periods. Anomalies of large-scale variables (relative to the previous day's average) are physically associated with cloud formation, evolution and dissipation. SAM consistently simulated these results, where the cloud fraction vertical profile shows a pattern very close to the observed data (cloud type). Additionally, the integrated cloud fraction and large-scale variable anomalies, as a function of the previous day's average, have a good correlation. These results suggest that the memory of the large-scale dynamics from the previous day can be used to estimate the cloud fraction as well as the water content, which is a variable of the cloud itself. In general, the SAM satisfactorily simulated the interaction between cloud–radiation as well as dynamic and thermodynamic variables of the atmosphere during the periods of this study, being able to obtain atmospheric variables that are impossible to obtain in an observational way.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Giant phonon anomalies in the proximate Kitaev quantum spin liquid α-RuCl 3

The Kitaev quantum spin liquid epitomizes an entangled topological state, for which two flavors of fractionalized low-energy excitations are predicted: the itinerant Majorana fermion and the Z 2 gauge flux. Here, it was proposed recently that fingerprints of fractional excitations are encoded in the phonon spectra of Kitaev quantum spin liquids through a novel fractional-excitation-phonon coupling. Here, we detect anomalous phonon effects in α-RuCl 3 using inelastic X-ray scattering with meV resolution. At high temperature, we discover interlaced optical phonons intercepting a transverse acoustic phonon between 3 and 7 meV. Upon decreasing temperature, the optical phonons display a large intensity enhancement near the Kitaev energy, J K ~8 meV, that coincides with a giant acoustic phonon softening near the Z 2 gauge flux energy scale. These phonon anomalies signify the coupling of phonon and Kitaev magnetic excitations in α-RuCl 3 and demonstrates a proof-of-principle method to detect anomalous excitations in topological quantum materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗

NASA NTRS1991

Induced radioactivity in LDEF components

The systematics of induced radioactivity on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) were studied in a wide range of materials using low level background facilities for detection of gamma rays. Approx. 400 samples of materials processed from structural parts of the spacecraft, as well as materials from onboard experiments, were analyzed at national facilities. These measurements show the variety of radioisotopes that are produced with half-lives greater than 2 wks, most of which are characteristic of proton induced reactions above 20 MeV. For the higher activity, long lived isotopes, it was possible to map the depth and directional dependences of the activity. Due to the stabilized configuration of the LDEF, the induced radioactivity data clearly show contributions from the anisotropic trapped proton flux in the South Atlantic Anomaly. This effect is discussed, along with evidence for activation by galactic protons and thermal neutrons. The discovery of Be-7 was made on leading side parts of the spacecraft, although this was though not to be related to the in situ production of radioisotopes from external particle fluxes.

Harmon, B. A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Budgets for Decadal Variability in Pacific Ocean Heat Content

A slowdown in the rate of surface warming in the early 2000s led to renewed interest in the redistribution of ocean heat content (OHC) and its relationship with internal climate variability. In this work we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 to study the relationship between OHC and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), a major mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. By comparing the relative contributions of surface heat flux and ocean dynamics to changes in OHC for different phases of the IPO, we try to identify the underlying physical processes involved. Our results suggest that during IPO phase transitions, changes of 0–300-m OHC across the northern extratropical Pacific are positively contributed by both surface heat flux and oceanic heat transport. By contrast, oceanic heat transport appears to drive the OHC changes in equatorial Pacific whereas surface heat flux acts as a damping term. During a positive IPO phase, weakened wind-driven circulation acts to increase the OHC in the equatorial Pacific while the enhanced evaporation acts to damp OHC anomalies. In the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region, a dipole anomaly of zonal heat advection amplifies an OHC dipole anomaly that moves eastward, while strong turbulent heat fluxes act to dampen this OHC anomaly. In the northern subtropical Pacific, both the wind-driven evaporation change and the change of zonal heat advection along Kuroshio Extension contribute to the OHC change during phase transition. For the northern subpolar Pacific, both surface heat flux and enhanced meridional advection contribute to the positive OHC anomalies during the positive IPO phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1974

Thermal surveillance of active volcanoes

The author has identified the following significant results. By the end of 1973, aerial infrared scanner traverses for thermal anomaly recordings of all Cascade Range volcanoes were essentially completed. Amplitude level slices of the Mount Baker anomalies were completed and compiled at a scale of 1:24,000, thus producing, for the first time, an accurate map of the distribution and intensity of thermal activity on Mount Baker. The major thermal activity is concentrated within the crater south of the main summit and although it is characterized by intensive solfataric activity and warm ground, it is largely subglacial, causing the development of sizable glacier perforation features. The outgoing radiative flux from the east breach anomalies is sufficient to account for the volume of ice melted to form the glacier perforations. DCP station 6251 has been monitoring a thermally anomalous area on the north slope of Mount Baker. The present thermal activity of Mount Baker accounts for continuing hydrothermal alteration in the crater south of the main summit and recurrent debris avalanches from Sherman Peak on its south rim. The infrared anomalies mapped as part of the experiment SR 251 are considered the basic evidence of the subglacial heating which was the probable triggering mechanism of an avalanche down Boulder Glacier on August 20-21, 1973.

Friedman, J. D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Data to Reduce Uncertainties in Reactor Antineutrino Measurements

The large quantities of antineutrinos produced through the decay of fission fragments in nuclear reactors provide an opportunity to study the properties of these particles and investigate their use in reactor monitoring. The reactor antineutrino spectra are measured using specialized, large area detectors that detect antineutrinos through inverse beta decay, electron elastic scattering, or coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering; although, inverse beta decay is the only demonstrated method so far. Reactor monitoring takes advantage of the differences in the antineutrino yield and spectra resulting from uranium and plutonium fission providing an opportunity to estimate the fissile material composition in the reactor. Recent experiments reveal a deviation between the measured and calculated antineutrino flux and spectra (the reactor anomaly) indicating either the existence of yet undiscovered neutrino physics, uncertainties in the reactor source term calculation, incorrect nuclear data, or a combination of all three. To address the nuclear data that impact the antineutrino spectrum calculations and measurements, an international group of over 180 experts in antineutrino physics, reactor analysis, detector development, and nuclear data came together during the Workshop on Nuclear Data for Reactor Antineutrino Measurements (WoNDRAM) to discuss nuclear data needs and achieve concordance on a set of recommended priorities for nuclear data improvements. Three topical sessions focused on the reactor source term, the antineutrino spectrum, and the detector response, provided a forum to gain consensus amongst the participants on the most important data improvements to address two goals: 1) understand the reactor anomaly and 2) improve the ability to monitor reactors using antineutrinos. This report summarizes the outcomes of the workshop discussions and the recommendations for nuclear data efforts that reduce reactor antineutrino measurement uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1971

Neutron capture effects in lunar gadolinium and the irradiation histories of some lunar rocks.

The Gd isotopic composition in 19 lunar rock and soil samples from three Apollo sites is reported. The analytical techniques and the high precision mass spectrometric measurements are discussed. Enrichments in the Gd-158 oxide to G-157 oxide ratio due to neutron capture range up to 0.75%. Integrated 'thermal' neutron fluxes derived from the isotopic anomalies of Gd are compared with spallation Kr data from aliquot samples to construct a model which gives both average cosmic-ray irradiation depths and effective neutron exposure ages for some rocks. Rock 14310 is the first lunar sample where Kr anomalies due to resonance neutron capture in Br are observed. A Kr-81/Kr exposure age of 262 (plus or minus 7)m.y. is calculated for this rock.

Lugmair, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS1973

The diffuse X-ray spectrum from 14-200 keV as measured on OSO-5

The measurement of energy spectrum of the diffuse component of cosmic X-ray flux made on the OSO-5 spacecraft is described. The contributions to the total counting rate of the actively shielded X-ray detector are considered in some detail and the techniques used to eliminate the non-cosmic components are described. Positive values for the cosmic flux are obtained in seven energy channels between 14 and 200 keV and two upper limits are obtained between 200 and 254 keV. The results can be fitted by a power law spectrum. A critical comparison is made with the OSO-3 results. Conclusions show that the reported break in the energy spectrum at 40 keV is probably produced by an erroneous correction for the radioactivity induced in the detector on each passage through the intense charged particle fluxes in the South Atlantic anomaly.

Dennis, B. R.↗