Results for “Gas pipelines” — Page 6

DOE OSTI2026

Feature Engineering and Ensemble Methods for Imbalanced ICS Intrusion Detection: Pipeline Audit and Constrained Evaluation

Industries are becoming increasingly connected and are more vulnerable to cyberattacks due to the widened attack surface. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are among the most critical sectors that malicious actors can target, as such attacks can cause significant operational disruption and physical damage. It is imperative to detect such attacks as early as possible. This paper evaluates constraint-conditioned optimistic performance estimates for traditional ML models in ICS intrusion detection (i.e., estimates obtained under contiguous, non-shuffled temporal evaluation without test-set alteration, but with pre-split feature engineering that may introduce temporal leakage, due to dataset constraints). Our findings are threefold. First, we quantify how iterative feature engineering affects tree-based ensemble performance and examine how pipeline decisions (split strategy, sampling scope, and cleaning policy) can inflate or reduce reported IDS results under constraint-bound evaluation. Second, we compare intrinsic class-imbalance handling across ensemble models. Third, under our current pipeline constraints (including pre-split feature engineering), CatBoost achieves the best performance on Water Storage Tank (accuracy: 0.9831, class-1 F1: 0.9682), while Light- GBM achieves the best performance on Gas Pipeline (accuracy: 0.9618, class-1 F1: 0.9086).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cold Spray Additive Manufacturing For New Pipeline Fabrication In Live, Natural Gas Distribution Mains

ULC Technologies (ULC) and the Penn State University Applied Research Lab (PSU ARL) developed a process and approach for rehabilitating live, natural gas distribution pipelines using Cold Spray Additive Manufacturing (CSAM). Robotic inline fabrication of a new pipe will be performed inside a natural gas main without disrupting customers. The material studied was blended with stainless steel which offers corrosion resistance, high strength and compatibility with hydrogen to enable a robust pipeline system that is future proofed. Stainless steel coatings sprayed and tested in the lab showed excellent strength, ductility, and porosity values. ULC initially sought to use methane as the process gas for compatibility with the host pipe, but after evaluating the field and lab challenges, nitrogen was deemed to be more suitable. Early robotic concepts have been developed that indicate technical feasibility. While the technology development originally targeted natural gas distribution mains, market research showed a broader need. Spot repairs performed in natural gas transmission mains may be a more economical approach for reinforcing distribution and transmission mains compared with full pipe-in-pipe rehabilitation. Additive manufacturing offers custom programming, as well as high accuracy and precision. This means custom contours can be manufactured in situ, offering flexibility in the repair solution, such as fabricating internal full circumferential sleeves. The value of the repair can be high at difficult-to-reach locations and in pipes that need reinforcement before the injection of methane-hydrogen blends.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Existing Assets for Long Duration Energy Storage

Increased renewables penetration to electrical grid is necessary to reduce overall emissions from the electrical power generation sector. Nonetheless, its integration creates challenges to grid operators who must match the power being generated by intermittent renewables and other traditional energy sources with the demand from consumers, while ensuring the reliability and power quality for the entire system. Energy storage has been proposed as an alternative to natural gas peaking plants and a form to deliver excess renewable energy generation at times of peak demand. For energy storage to provide benefits to end customers (energy consumers), it must be reliable, efficient, and cost effective. The Illinois Sustainable Technology Center (ISTC), one of the surveys that integrate the Prairie Research Institute (PRI), aims to develop a Center for Energy Storage at Existing Assets (CESEA) at UIUC with the participation of Waste Pressure Corp and Ecotek Engineering USA LLC. CESEA will focus on LDES systems that can integrate to existing infrastructure in a manner that reduces the initial capital expenditure and demonstrates the ability to repurpose fossil assets that would otherwise become stranded, to serve the energy transition. CESEA aims to leverage UIUC’s unique facilities to validate LDES systems performance at a relevant operating environment. UIUC’s facilities include a 85-MW combined heat and power (CHP) power plant, two (2) solar PV plants totaling over 18 MWdc of installed capacity, an electrical grid along with a substation at transmission and distribution voltages, a 22-mile gas pipeline network operating at two pressure levels, along with steam and chilled water distribution networks. The new LDES systems will connect to the existing UIUC grid through a new test electrical station, which will have the capacity to accommodate additional connections to test new devices and technologies as part of future CESEA R&D activities. The test electrical station will contain meters, instrumentation, and controls to accurately capture data and allow optimization of control algorithms. CESEA will initially focus on technologies that: i) utilize existing equipment or facilities to perform at least one of the process steps in LDES (charging, storage, or discharging), ii) leverage mature or commercially available components or controls, iii) show potential for cost-leadership in 10+ hour storage at a commercial scale. Initial technologies that were identified to meet these criteria include Compressed Gas Energy Storage (CGES), and TES. CGES stores electricity by raising the pressure of a compressible gas inside a control volume and converting the stored energy to electricity via expansion-generation. CGES is a generalization of CAES that covers any working gas (not just air). A successful CGES demo will help to circumvent many challenges faced by CAES (long development times due to site prospecting, high cost of compression and storage, heat recovery management, etc.) by: 1) utilizing existing infrastructure (compressors, pipelines, underground storage or pressure vessels) used in the transportation and storage of industrial gases for LDES charging and storage; 2) deploying over sites already-developed for industrial applications with minor additional work; 3) leveraging the price structure of commercial industrial gas to cover the costs of electricity used during charging. A previous DOE-sponsored conceptual study (DE-FE-0032018) estimated the levelized cost of energy of a 1.1 MW / 17 MWh CGES system at $0.08/kWh, with a commercial 10x scale system cost estimated at <$0.04/kWh (Giardinella, 2022). The pilot-sized system was estimated to avoid up to 2693 tons of CO2/year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analyzing the Economic and Technical Potential of H2@Scale

H2@Scale is one of EERE's flagship initiatives to enable clean and affordable hydrogen production, storage, distribution, and utilization across multiple sectors in the economy. The January H2IQ hour will discuss results from a recent multi-laboratory analysis report quantifying the technical and economic potential of H2@Scale, given the use of hydrogen as an energy intermediate to integrate sectors in the U.S. energy system. Mark Ruth of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the lead author of the report, will discuss specific examples of the role hydrogen can play in industry and transportation sectors, such as steelmaking, synthetic fuels, and blending into natural gas pipelines. He will also explain how hydrogen production can be integrated with the electric grid to monetize low-cost energy and incentivize growth in renewable energy supply. The H2IQ Hour will dive into estimates for future hydrogen consumption in current and emerging sectors, given R&D advances and varying prices of natural gas and electricity.

39 EE - Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies (EE-3F↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for a Nuclear Power Plant Colocated with Industrial Facilities: Colocation Studies for a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Site Integration and Regulatory Considerations for an NPP Colocated with a Petroleum Refinery, Methanol Plant, and Wood Pulp Plant

This research explores the colocation of nuclear power plants (NPPs) with industrial applications. Three existing industrial sites were considered to demonstrate the siting process and illuminate technological gaps for future work. The three applications demonstrated for colocation here are a petroleum refinery, a methanol production plant, and a pulp and paper plant. This study uses a modified version of the EPRI siting criteria to explore the geological and demographic characteristics of the location of the current industrial site, as well as exploring external hazards from the industrial plant and its surrounding land use. Data was collected from public databases to estimate site characteristics. We then discuss how the site characteristics may impact the ability to colocate an NPP with an industrial application. The application site and 5 additional sites were explored for each application to give a general indication of the siting implications for an NPP in each area. The hazards for each industrial application was also explored to determine how colocation may impact reactor safety. The following gaps have been identified and should be explored in future research on colocation of NPPs with petroleum refineries, methanol plants, and pulp and paper plants: - There is a variety of industrial use, hazards, and pipelines in the surrounding area. A more thorough review of these hazards should be considered for colocation. - In general, the whole region around some applications seems to have softer soil, with implications for large site preparation costs. Further site investigations should prioritize looking into the geotechnical conditions. - Applications along coastlines are susceptible to flooding and hurricanes. The benefits of colocation should be weighed against the potential design implications. - The benefits of natural gas pipeline infrastructure in place should be explored further. If heat supply from the NPP is not required or not feasible due to the distance between the NPP and the application, there may be an opportunity to supply hydrogen to the plant through an existing pipeline. - Because there are several collocated industrial plants in the regions for the refinery and methanol plant, the benefits of sharing resources from the NPP should be explored further. This may open up additional sites for colocation. The following knowledge gaps were identified for the colocation of NPPs with these three industries, and industrial applications in general. These gaps are: - While the STAND tool contains many important characteristics for the reactor siting process, it is not calibrated for the colocation of NPPs with industrial facilities. - There are aspects of both the NPP and industrial application that need to be quantified for a siting analysis. Particularly, we need to understand the water intake requirements for NPPs and each application. - Further work may focus on adapting the STAND site comparison methodology to comparison of sites for co-location. This will involve using the data documented in this report as a starting point and performing a comprehensive and quantitative comparison. - Without spending significant resources, it would be impossible to gather data for each site to evaluate all aspects of siting. One approach to finding data and understanding its implications to siting is looking at FSARs for existing plants. For example, most sites considered in this study have small Vs30 values, indicating soft soil. However, there are NPPs located in the vicinity of most of the sites (e.g., Waterford Steam Electric Station near New Orleans) and reviewing available site characteristics and geotechnical data for these NPPs, might provide further information for siting. - The siting analysis in this study indicates that colocation of the NPP with the industrial site could be difficult based on external hazards, cooling requirements, weather, or population. We need to determine the impact of distance between the two facilities on cost and quality of energy transport. - This study did not touch on socioeconomic impacts for NPP colocation with industrial facilities. The input-output analysis methodology could be applied to the communities referenced in this study to determine the socioeconomic impact of these projects. - Similarly, the impacts of colocation on emergency planning was not explored in this study. The impacts on emergency planning infrastructure are somewhat related to the socioeconomic impacts, and could be explored using a similar methodology. - This study also did not address physical and cybersecurity, which will be important aspects of co-location [ref] . Cybersecurity will be important, regardless of the distance, but physical security will be important if the facilities are located very closely. Physical security might also be important for the steam lines between the plants, unless they are determined to be non-safety significant. - In many site l

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Compressor Station Differential Risk Assessment for Hydrogen and Natural Gas Blends

Blending hydrogen into existing natural gas pipelines is a current initiative for large-scale hydrogen deployment in the United States. Understanding changes in hazards and risk for fuel blends can help inform regulations. A differential risk assessment was conducted to understand how the safety profile of fires and unignited flammable plumes of leaking fuel would change based on blend composition. The area affected by harmful heat fluxes from jet fires was found to be larger for blends with more natural gas in them, while the distance affected by unignited flammable fuel concentrations was found to be larger for blends with more hydrogen in them. Component leak frequencies and ignition probabilities greatly impact both heat flux risk and the flammable plume risk. The collection of additional blend-specific industry data could help understand which assumptions are most valid to make when calculating risk.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Feature Extraction for Pipeline Defects Inspection Based Upon Distributed Acoustic Fiber Optic Sensing Data

Fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) is becoming an increasingly important tool for real-time monitoring of energy and civil infrastructure structural health such as pipelines. We present a systematic theoretical study of the potential for DAS to be directly coupled with guided ultrasonic waves typically used in conventional acoustic non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods for real-time pipeline health monitoring. We are referring to this innovative new NDE technique as ultrasonic guided wave and optical fiber sensor fusion. In the practical application of DAS coupled with guided ultrasonic waves, the structural design of (1) the specific guided waves excited, (2) the physical installation of the acoustic transducers and the fiber optic sensors, and (3) the functional performance specifications (gauge length, sensitivity, Etc.) of fiber optic DAS have an important influence on overall capabilities of the monitoring system. Meanwhile, physics-based analysis of acoustic waves is still a challenge due to the complex nature of the Lamb wave when it propagates, scatters, and disperses in the presence of structural defects. In this work, we simulate carbon steel pipes relevant for oil and gas pipeline applications with diameters of approximately 6-12” and wall thickness of 0.5” as the objects to be monitored. By establishing and implementing these capabilities, we seek to pursue an in-depth study on structural parameter optimization of DAS network, measurement range, and signal processing with an ultimate goal of increasing the sensitivity and efficacy of DAS to defect identification for various modes of corrosion expected in practice. To study the characteristics of scattered acoustic waves and performance of DAS for defect identification, we simulated the response of DAS for multiple pipe structures, defect types, and DAS sensor network configuration using finite element software Ansys, then the properties of signal response are extracted to construct defect-sensitive features. The raw data simulated, and the associated features extracted can ultimately be utilized as annotated training data to benchmark various designs for DAS applications, guided acoustic excitation sources, and learning model parameters to enhance early detection of potentially problematic defects.

Pipeline Defects Inspection, Fiber-optic sensors, ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Synthetic Natural Gas Production from Direct Air Capture Using Titania-Based Dual Function Materials

Converting atmospheric CO2 into methane offers a compelling pathway to store intermittent renewable electricity and enhance energy security using existing natural gas infrastructure. However, current CO2 utilization approaches remain energy- and capital-intensive, largely due to the need for separate capture, purification, and conversion steps. Integrating CO2 capture with catalytic methanation represents a transformative strategy for process intensification on both the unit operation and molecular levels. We report a series of Ru-Na/TiO2 dual function materials (DFMs) for a reactive carbon capture (RCC) process consisting of simulated direct air capture and subsequent CO2 methanation (DACM). Superior methane desorption purity was observed on TiO2-based DFMs (>94 %) relative to state-of-the-art Al2O3-supported DFMs (77 %). Modifying the process to begin CO2 adsorption immediately following the methanation stage, rather than beginning adsorption near ambient temperature, resulted in >97 % methane desorption purity, suitable for injection into the natural gas pipeline without additional CO2 separation steps.

organic↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Vulnerability Analysis for Cascading Failures of Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a cascading failure simulation (CFS) method and a hybrid machine learning method for vulnerability analysis of integrated power-gas systems (IPGSs). The CFS method is designed to study the propagating process of cascading failures between the two systems, generating data for machine learning with initial states randomly sampled. The proposed method considers generator and gas well ramping, transmission line and gas pipeline tripping, island issue handling and load shedding strategies. Then, a hybrid machine learning model with a combined random forest (RF) classification and regression algorithms is proposed to investigate the impact of random initial states on the vulnerability metrics of IPGSs. Extensive case studies are carried out on three test IPGSs to verify the proposed models and algorithms. Simulation results show that the proposed models and algorithms can achieve high accuracy for the vulnerability analysis of IPGSs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fe-Coated Optical Fiber for Distributed Corrosion Monitoring in Soil and Aqueous Environments

Natural gas pipeline corrosion represents a substantial cost and safety concern during normal operations. The effective and real-time monitoring of corrosion is important to detect and mitigate pipeline risks before corrosion-related catastrophic events happen. Here, we describe the use of iron (Fe) coated optical fiber sensors (OFS) for distributed corrosion monitoring where Fe acts as a corrosion proxy. By using an optical backscattering reflectometer (OBR), corrosion was monitored based on the increase in the backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed as Fe underwent corrosion. The Fe-coated OFSs were prepared with a film thickness between 25–225 nanometers (nm) by an electroless plating approach and corroded by a carbon dioxide (CO2)-saturated acidic electrolyte. The corrosion rate (CR) was approximately 2.5 millimeters (mm)/year for Fe with a film thickness of 30 nm and increased with film thickness. Backscattering-based CRs were supported by visible light transmission measurements, which have been previously demonstrated. Additionally, a correlation between the intermittent transmission and residual Fe film thickness during the corrosion of Fe was established. The corrosion was measurable out to > 100 meters (m), which is a significant improvement over our previous work, which showed corrosion sensing at < 10 m. The corrosion sensor was also tested in soil at > 1 foot depth.

corrosion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fe-Coated Optical Fiber for Distributed Corrosion Monitoring in Soil and Aqueous Environment

Natural gas pipeline corrosion represents a substantial cost and safety concern during normal operations. The effective and real-time monitoring of corrosion is important to detect and mitigate pipeline risks before corrosion-related catastrophic events happen. Here, we describe the use of iron (Fe) coated optical fiber sensors (OFS) for distributed corrosion monitoring where Fe acts as a corrosion proxy. By using an optical backscattering reflectometer (OBR), corrosion was monitored based on the increase in the backscattered intensity amplitude of the light being passed as Fe underwent corrosion. The Fe-coated OFSs were prepared with a film thickness between 25–225 nanometers (nm) by an electroless plating approach and corroded by a carbon dioxide (CO2)-saturated acidic electrolyte. The corrosion rate (CR) was approximately 2.5 millimeters (mm)/year for Fe with a film thickness of 30 nm and increased with film thickness. Backscattering-based CRs were supported by visible light transmission measurements, which have been previously demonstrated. Additionally, a correlation between the intermittent transmission and residual Fe film thickness during the corrosion of Fe was established. The corrosion sensor was also tested in soil at > 1 foot depth. Fe-coated OFS was loaded into a Draka cable, which provides mechanical support during fiber deployment and installation into either acidified soil, top-soil, or sandy soil (50/50).

corrosion↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fe Thin Film-Coated Optics for Corrosion Monitoring: Optical and Electrochemical Studies

Corrosion proxy materials integrated with an optical sensing platform enable a real-time optical corrosion sensor for natural gas pipelines to prevent methane leaks and catastrophic events. Effects of CO 2 , pH, and film thickness on corrosion of Fe thin films (25, 50, 100 nm) were studied using optical and electrochemical methods in 3.5%wt. NaCl solutions at 30 °C. An increase in light transmission (T%) corresponded to corrosion of Fe thin films. CO 2 accelerated corrosion of Fe thin films due to the lower pH and the promoted corrosion reactions, resulting in a faster increase of T% than without CO 2 or at higher pH. While the corrosion rate increased with increasing film thickness, electrochemical corrosion of Fe thin films was in good agreement with that of bulk carbon steel, verifying that Fe thin films can serve as a representative corrosion proxy when integrated with the optical sensing platform.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale simulation of integrated energy system and electricity market interactions

Accelerating the deep decarbonization of the world's electric grids requires the coordination of complex energy systems and infrastructures across timescales from seconds to decades. Here, we present a new multiscale simulation framework that integrates process- and grid-centric modeling paradigms to better design, operate, and control integrated energy systems (IESs), which combine multiple technologies, in wholesale energy markets. Traditionally, IESs are analyzed with a process-centric paradigm such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) or annualized net revenue, ignoring important interactions with electricity markets. This framework explicitly models the complex interactions between an IES's bidding, scheduling, and control decisions and the energy market's clearing and settlement processes, while incorporating operational uncertainties. Through two case studies, we show the importance of understanding and quantifying complex resource-grid interactions. In case study 1, we demonstrate that optimized bidding from one resource shifts the profit distribution for all energy systems in the market. This result suggests new and more flexible IES technologies can disrupt the economics of all market participants, possibly leading to accelerated retirements of less flexible resources. Interestingly, the optimized bidding has little impact on grid-level aggregate statistics, such as total generation costs and renewable penetration rate. While aggregate modeling strategies may remain valid under some IES adoption scenarios for analysis focused on regional outcomes, direct comparisons of IES technologies at specific locations without considering these interactions may lead to misleading or incorrect conclusions. In case study 2, we consider the design and flexible operation of IESs that hybridize conventional generators with energy storage. Through a sensitivity analysis, we find that as the size of the storage system increases, the total number of start-ups for coal- and natural gas-based IESs reduced by 25% and 33.6%, and the total thermal generator ramping (i.e., mileage) reduced by 86.5% and 62.5%, respectively. This shows the primary benefit of storage may not be reduced operational costs (which do not change significantly) but fewer start-ups and less ramping, which may greatly simplify the design, operation, and control of carbon capture systems. The new modeling and optimization capabilities from this work enable the coupling of rigorous, dynamic process models with grid-level production cost models to quantitatively identify the nuanced interdependencies across these vast timescales that must be addressed to realize clean, safe, and secure energy production. Moreover, the proposed general multiscale simulation framework is applicable to all IES technologies and can be easily extended to consider other energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia) and energy infrastructures (e.g., natural gas pipelines).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

One dislocation at a time

The direct observation of enhanced dislocation mobility in iron by in situ electron microscopy offers key insights and adds to the ongoing debate on the mechanisms of hydrogen embrittlement. The tiniest atom in nature, hydrogen, is pervasive and sneaky. When hydrogen atoms, either from gas or liquid sources, come into contact with a metal, they rush into the solid and squeeze through the narrow spaces between the host atoms. Being chemically active, atomic hydrogen can potentially bind to either host or impurity atoms, forming hydrides and thus changing a material’s properties. Metals, which are well known and widely used in industry for their strength and ductility, can become dangerously brittle when exposed to hydrogen. Furthermore, this phenomenon is known as hydrogen embrittlement and can lead to catastrophic failure of a load-bearing part. For example, the hydrogen produced when water molecules break apart in coolants in a nuclear reactor can cause sudden failure of the pressure vessel. In another example, although blending hydrogen in natural-gas pipelines provides a promising pathway to transition into the hydrogen economy, it could lower the fatigue resistance of the pipeline steel, making it more susceptible to crack growth due to cyclic loading induced by pressure fluctuations in the pipeline. Remarkably, perhaps as a result of a multitude of recognized failure mechanisms in which hydrogen can potentially participate, it still remains unknown exactly why hydrogen makes a metal brittle. Now, writing in Nature Materials, Longchao Huang and colleagues present unambiguous experimental observations of hydrogen-enhanced dislocation mobility in iron, offering key insights into the hydrogen embrittlement mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO 2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO 2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗