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At least 109 records · Page 6

Statistical analysis of geodetic networks for detecting regional events

We present an application of hidden Markov models (HMMs) to analysis of geodetic time series in Southern California. Our model fitting method uses a regularized version of the deterministic annealing expectation-maximization algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust and of high quality.

geodetic networks↗

Interseismic Ground Deformation and Fault Slip Rates in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area From Two Decades of Space Geodetic Data

The detailed spatial variations of strain accumulation and creep on major faults in the northern San Francisco Bay Area (North Bay), which are important for seismic potential and evaluation of natural hazards, remain poorly understood. We combine interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the ERS-1/2 and Envisat satellites between 1992 and 2010 with continuous and campaign GPS data to obtain a high spatial and temporal coverage of ground deformation of the North Bay. The SAR data from both ascending and descending orbits are combined to separate horizontal and vertical components of the deformation. We jointly invert the horizontal component of the mean velocities derived from these data to infer the deep strike-slip rates on major locked faults. We use the estimated deep rates to simulate the long-wavelength deformation due to interseismic elastic strain accumulation along these locked faults. After removing the long-wavelength signal from the InSAR horizontal mean velocity field, we estimate fault-parallel surface creep rates of up to 2 mm/year along the central section of the Rodgers Creek fault and surface creep rates ranging between 2 and 4 mm/year along the Concord fault. No surface creep is geodetically resolved along the West Napa and Green Valley fault zones. We identified characteristically repeating earthquakes on the Rodgers Creek fault, the West Napa fault, the Green Valley fault, and the Concord fault. Finally, nontectonic deformation in the Geysers geothermal field and in Late Cenozoic basins (Rohnert Park and Sonoma basins) are also observed, likely due to hydrological and sediment-compaction processes, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Space geodetic monitoring of engineered structures: The ongoing destabilization of the Mosul dam, Iraq

We present a detailed survey of the ongoing destabilization process of the Mosul dam. The dam is located on the Tigris river and is the biggest hydraulic structure in Iraq. From a geological point of view the dam foundation is poor due to a site geology formed by alternating strata of highly soluble materials including gypsum, anhydrite, marl and limestone. Here we present the first multi-sensor cumulative deformation map for the dam generated from space-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements from the Italian constellation COSMO-SkyMed and the European sensor Sentinel-1a over the period 2014–2016 that we compare to an older dataset spanning 2004–2010 acquired with the European Envisat satellite. We found that deformation was rapid during 2004–2010, slowed in 2012–2014 and increased since August 2014 when grouting operations stopped due to the temporary capture of the dam by the self proclaimed Islamic State. We model the inferred deformation using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to solve for change in volume for simple tensile dislocations. Results from recent and historical geodetic datasets suggests that the volume dissolution rate remains constant when the equivalent volume of total concrete injected during re-grouting operations is included in the calculations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterizing volumetric strain at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada, USA using geodetic data, numerical models and prior information

The geothermal field at Brady Hot Springs, Nevada has subsided over the past decade. Between 2004 and 2014, the rate of downward-vertical displacement was on the order of 10 mm yr -1 , as measured by two independent geodetic techniques: interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System. The observed deformation field forms an approximately elliptical bowl that is 4 km long and aligned with the trace of the NNE striking normal fault system. We use modelling to estimate the plausibility of pressure changes or thermal contraction as the cause of the observed subsidence. As a result, Bayesian inference favours with ‘very strong evidence’ thermal contraction over other hypotheses as the dominant driving mechanism for the observed subsidence. Using InSAR data spanning from 2016 July 22 to 2017 August 22, we estimate the volume change rate in the significantly deforming volume to be (-29 ± 3) thousand m 3 yr -1 and the total rate of change in thermal energy between -53 and -79 MW. We infer the total volume of cubes where the estimated volumetric strain rate is significantly different from zero with 95 per cent confidence to be 119 million m 3 . We find that the main region of significant cooling occurs between the injection and production well locations. This result supports the idea that highly permeable conduits along faults channel fluids from shallow aquifers to the deep reservoir tapped by the production wells.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗