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A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales
Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7-17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.
Dust injection into the Martian atmosphere
The sequence of events culminating in a global Martian dust storm is reviewed in the light of current theories on dust storm generation. Based upon experimental results, a mechanism for the initiation of global dust storms on Mars is proposed. According to this mechanism, the diurnal variation of surface temperature results in desorption of adsorbed CO2, which under certain conditions can inject large amounts of fine (1-10 microns) dust into the atmosphere.
Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?
The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.
Global effects of interactions on galaxy evolution
Recent observations of the evolutionary properties of paired and interacting galaxies are reviewed, with special emphasis on their global emission properties and star formation rates. Data at several wavelengths provide strong confirmation of the hypothesis, proposed originally by Larson and Tinsley, that interactions trigger global bursts of star formation in galaxies. The nature and properties of the starbursts, and their overall role in galactic evolution are also discussed.
Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978
Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.
Global Precipitation Measurement: GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) Algorithm Development Approach
This slide presentation reviews the approach to the development of the Global Precipitation Measurement algorithm. This presentation includes information about the responsibilities for the development of the algorithm, and the calibration. Also included is information about the orbit, and the sun angle. The test of the algorithm code will be done with synthetic data generated from the Precipitation Processing System (PPS).
A Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models
Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals.
Global Precipitation Measurement: Methods, Datasets and Applications
This paper reviews the many aspects of precipitation measurement that are relevant to providing an accurate global assessment of this important environmental parameter. Methods discussed include ground data, satellite estimates and numerical models. First, the methods for measuring, estimating, and modeling precipitation are discussed. Then, the most relevant datasets gathering precipitation information from those three sources are presented. The third part of the paper illustrates a number of the many applications of those measurements and databases. The aim of the paper is to organize the many links and feedbacks between precipitation measurement, estimation and modeling, indicating the uncertainties and limitations of each technique in order to identify areas requiring further attention, and to show the limits within which datasets can be used.
Structural Analysis for the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident Investigation: Global Analysis
NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) supported the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) in the American Airlines Flight 587 accident investigation due to LaRC's expertise in high-fidelity structural analysis and testing of composite structures and materials. A Global Analysis Team from LaRC reviewed the manufacturer s design and certification procedures, developed finite element models and conducted structural analyses, and participated jointly with the NTSB and Airbus in subcomponent tests conducted at Airbus in Hamburg, Germany. The Global Analysis Team identified no significant or obvious deficiencies in the Airbus certification and design methods. Analysis results from the LaRC team indicated that the most-likely failure scenario was failure initiation at the right rear main attachment fitting (lug), followed by an unstable progression of failure of all fin-to-fuselage attachments and separation of the VTP from the aircraft. Additionally, analysis results indicated that failure initiates at the final observed maximum fin loading condition in the accident, when the VTP was subjected to loads that were at minimum 1.92 times the design limit load condition for certification. For certification, the VTP is only required to support loads of 1.5 times design limit load without catastrophic failure. The maximum loading during the accident was shown to significantly exceed the certification requirement. Thus, the structure appeared to perform in a manner consistent with its design and certification, and failure is attributed to VTP loads greater than expected.
The global energy budget and satellite observations
During the last 30 years, space observations have provided new information about (a) the energy from our Sun, (b) the radiative exchange between our earth-atmosphere system and space, (c) required poleward energy transports by our atmosphere and oceans, (d) seasonal and interannual variations of (b) and (c), (e) the role of clouds in the global energy budget, and (f) preliminary information about the role of water vapor in the global energy budget. After a review of what we now know about these topics, the paper concludes with a discussion of major unknowns including the vertical variation of cloud forcing, the 'CO2 fingerprint,' the 'missing petawatt' of energy transport, and the role of non-cloud aerosols and surface features in the global budget.
Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.
An introduction to the global positioning system and some geological applications
The fundamental principles of the global positioning system (GPS) are reviewed, with consideration given to geological and geophysical applications and related accuracy requirements. Recent improvements are emphasized which relate to areas such as equipment cost, limitations in the GPS satellite constellation, data analysis, uncertainties in satellite orbits and propagation delays, and problems in resolving carrier phase cycle ambiguities. Earthquake processes and near-fault crustal deformation monitoring have been facilitated by advances in GPS data acquisition and analysis. Horizontal positioning capability has been improved by new satellite constellation, better models, and global tracking networks. New classes of tectonic problems may now be studied through GPS, such as kinematic descriptions of crustal deformation and the measurement of relative plate motion at convergent boundaries. Continued improvements in the GPS are foreseen.
Tidal Prediction
Tides are the most predictable of oceanographic phenomena, due both to the simplicity and predictability of the astronomical forcing and to the near linearity of the ocean's dynamical response. In the classical and simplest scenario, tidal prediction is based on harmonic analysis of past measurements at a fixed location. Limits to predictability arise because isolated astronomical spectral lines are broadened into "cusps" of incoherent energy, for example through interactions with non-tidal flows. Tidal prediction at locations without past measurements has historically been a major challenge, but, owing to near-global observations of modern satellite altimeters, the empirical harmonic approach now yields reasonably accurate predictions throughout most of the open ocean. Advances in numerical modeling and data assimilation allow these predictions to be refined (especially in shallow seas where observations remain insufficient to directly constrain tidal wave structure) and extended to include tidal currents. We review recent progress in the development of global and regional-scale tidal prediction capabilities, summarize accuracy of available charts, and briefly consider outstanding issues. Satellite altimetry has also helped unravel the global tidal energy budget and has clarified the role of internal tides as a sink of tidal energy. We summarize these results, and then turn to the challenging problem of predicting internal tides. To the extent that low modes remain coherent with the surface tide, elevations can be directly mapped. We review current efforts in this direction, which are already producing charts with predictive capability. However, internal tides (especially higher modes) interact much more strongly with lower-frequency ocean flows, so a significant fraction of this tidal signal is intermittent and incoherent. We close with a brief review of ongoing efforts to model global tides in combination with wind-forced ocean motions.
The ATMOS (Atmospheric Trace MOlecule Spectroscopy) experiment - A tool for global monitoring of the middle atmosphere
A review is presented of the objectives, instrumentation, performance and results of the ATMOS program developed by NASA-JPL as part of the Spacelab 3 shuttle payload. ATMOS was developed to obtain high-resolution spectroscopic information of the middle atmosphere, from which the vertical distribution of the most possible trace and minor molecules could be retrieved. A complete occultation included not only data recorded when the optical path traversed the earth's atmosphere, but also many spectra with tangent heights big enough for no more telluric absorptions to be detected. The averaging of such 'high sun' observations has provided high quality solar spectra totally free of atmospheric absorption features.
Ozone contamination in aircraft cabins - Results from GASP data and analyses
The paper reviews results from the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) pertaining to the problem of ozone contamination in commercial aircraft cabins. Specifically, analyses of GASP data have (1) confirmed the high ozone levels in aircraft cabins and documented the ratio of ozone inside and outside the cabins of two B747 airliners, including the effects of air conditioning modifications on that ratio; (2) defined ambient ozone climatology at commercial aircraft cruise altitudes, including tabulation of encounter frequency data; and (3) outlined procedures for estimating the frequency of flights encountering high cabin ozone levels using climatological ambient ozone data and verified these procedures against cabin measurements.
Cloud-drift wind estimates during PGGE
Cloud drift winds constitute an important component of the First Global Atmospheric Research Program Experiment data base. Data was generated by far different centers, using somewhat different procedures. Image data transformation to wind vectors is discussed. Emphasis is placed on the differences between the processing techniques employed in each system. The use of cloud drift data by global data assimulation systems is reviewed, including quality control and relative weighting.
Satellite laser ranging and its applications
Satellite laser ranging (SLR) provides an important capability for precise orbit determination and for geophysical parameter estimation to support a number of contemporary geodynamic and oceanographic investigations. The precision of the SLR measurement has improved from the early meter-level systems to the current capabilities of a few centimeters for the best systems. The accuracy of the orbits and geophysical parameter recovery have shown an associated improvement. Polar motion with accuracies of 2 mas, station coordinates better than 10 cm, and interstation baseline rates indicative of tectonic motion are determined routinely with the current set of global SLR data. This discussion reviews the SLR measurement, analysis approach, and some of the recent results derived from the current SLR data set.