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Coordinated Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) and Ground-Based Weather Measurements to Predict Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs)
Concentrations of airborne chemical and biological agents from a hazardous release are not spread uniformly. Instead, there are regions of higher concentration, in part due to local atmospheric flow conditions which can attract agents. We equipped a ground station and two rotary-wing unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) with ultrasonic anemometers. Flights reported here were conducted 10 to 15 m above ground level (AGL) at the Leach Airfield in the San Luis Valley, Colorado as part of the Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) campaign in 2018. The ultrasonic anemometers were used to collect simultaneous measurements of wind speed, wind direction, and temperature in a fixed triangle pattern; each sensor was located at one apex of a triangle with ∼100 to 200 m on each side, depending on the experiment. A WRF-LES model was used to determine the wind field across the sampling domain. Data from the ground-based sensors and the two UASs were used to detect attracting regions (also known as Lagrangian Coherent Structures, or LCSs), which have the potential to transport high concentrations of agents. This unique framework for detection of high concentration regions is based on estimates of the horizontal wind gradient tensor. To our knowledge, our work represents the first direct measurement of an LCS indicator in the atmosphere using a team of sensors. Our ultimate goal is to use environmental data from swarms of sensors to drive transport models of hazardous agents that can lead to real-time proper decisions regarding rapid emergency responses. The integration of real-time data from unmanned assets, advanced mathematical techniques for transport analysis, and predictive models can help assist in emergency response decisions in the future.
Significant H i and Metal Differences around the z = 0.83 Lens Galaxy toward the Doubly Lensed Quasar SBS 0909+532
We report a large difference in neutral hydrogen (H i) and metal column densities between the two sight lines probing opposite sides of the lensing galaxy at z {sub lens} = 0.83 toward the doubly lensed quasar SBS 0909+532. Using archival HST-STIS and Keck HIRES spectra of the lensed quasar images, we measure log N {sub H I} = 18.77 ± 0.12 cm{sup −2} toward the brighter image (A) at an impact parameter of r {sub A} = 3.15 kpc and log N {sub H I} = 20.38 ± 0.20 cm{sup −2} toward the fainter image (B) at an impact parameter of r {sub B} = 5.74 kpc. This difference by a factor of ∼41 is the highest difference between sight lines for a lens galaxy in which H i has been measured, suggesting patchiness and/or anisotropy on these scales. We estimate an average Fe abundance gradient between the sight lines to be ≥+0.35 dex kpc{sup −1}. The N {sub Fe II}/N {sub Mg II} ratios for the individual components detected in the Keck HIRES spectra have supersolar values for all components in sight line A and for 11 out of 18 components in sight line B, suggesting that Type Ia supernovae may have contributed to the chemical enrichment of the galaxy’s environment. Additionally, these observations provide complementary information to detections of cold gas in early-type galaxies and the tension between these and some models of cloud survival.
Spatial distributions of X CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high-latitude regions
Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but undersampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO 2 ) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high-latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of satellite-observed X CO 2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high-latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of X CO 2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCAs) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCAs are in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high-latitude sites, and OCO-2 SCAs show very close agreement with SCAs calculated for model estimates of X CO 2 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1 and the CarbonTracker2019 model (CT2019B). Model estimates of X CO 2 from the GEOS-Chem CO 2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 (GC-CT2019) yield SCAs of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS, CT2019B, or OCO-2; however, GC-CT2019 SCAs still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high-latitude regions to that from CAMS, CT2019B, and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian boreal forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. In northern high-latitude regions, spanning latitudes from 47 to 72° N, longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as latitudinal gradients, suggesting a role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining spatial distributions of X CO2 seasonality across these regions. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest X CO 2 SCAs occur in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30d. The correlation of X CO 2 SCA with these land surface contact tracers is stronger than the correlation of X CO 2 SCA with the SCA of CO 2 fluxes or the total annual CO 2 flux within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO 2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in X CO 2 SCA.
State Estimation for Distribution Networks with Asynchronous Sensors Using Stochastic Descent: Preprint
This paper investigates the problem of state estimation for distribution networks with asynchronous sensors comprising of a mix of smart meters and phasor measurement units (PMUs) with multiple sampling and reporting rates. We consider two independent scenarios of state estimation and tracking, with either voltages or currents as states. With these two sets, we investigate estimation under (a) full data, assuming all measurements are available and (b) limited data, where an online algorithmic approach is adopted to estimate the possibly time-varying states by processing measurements as and when available. The proposed algorithm, inspired by the classical Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) approach updates the states based on the previous estimate and the newly available measurements. Finally, we demonstrate the estimation and tracking efficacy through numerical simulations on the IEEE-37 test network, while also highlighting how estimation with currents as states leads to faster convergence.
Selective laser melting of Co-29Cr-6Mo alloy with laser power 180–360 W: Cellular growth, intercellular spacing and the related thermal condition
Highlights: • Increasing laser power increases the track size but not the track shape significantly. • Solidification mode and texture are similar over the range of laser power used. • Intercellular spacing is not affected by laser power but decreases slightly with growth angle. • Thermal gradient and cooling rate have been estimated to be ~ 2 × 10{sup 7} K/m and ~ 2 × 10{sup 6} K/s, respectively. - Abstract: A feature of solidification during selective laser melting (SLM) is cellular growth. Thus, how growth direction and cell size may be affected and possibly be controlled by SLM parameters are important to be understood. Furthermore, intercellular spacing (λ{sub 1}) is suggestive of the thermal condition during solidification which needs to be known for advancing the understanding of SLM. In this work, grain solidification orientation and λ{sub 1} of a Co-Cr-Mo alloy produced by SLM over a range of laser power (P = 180–360 W) with other parameters kept unchanged have been evaluated. It has been found that the overall preferred growth of cellular solidification is not significantly affected by P. This is because, over the range of P values used, the shape of track did not change sufficiently to result in a significant variation of growth direction during epitaxial growth. It has also been found that P does not affect λ{sub 1}. This suggests, since growth rate (R) relates to scan speed (v) which is unchanged, P does not significantly affect the temperature gradient of the solidification front (G). From the measured λ{sub 1} and estimated R, G and thus cooling rate ( T-dot ) can be estimated following the commonly used primary arm spacing model. The estimated G and T-dot which could not be directly measured will be compared with those predicted by simulation and the estimated T-dot will also be compared with those determined by using an emperical relationship from literature.
Optimal Power Flow With State Estimation in the Loop for Distribution Networks
Here in this article, we propose a framework for running optimal control-estimation synthesis in distribution networks. Our approach combines a primal-dual gradient-based optimal power flow solver with a state estimation feedback loop based on a limited set of sensors for system monitoring, instead of assuming exact knowledge of all states. The estimation algorithm reduces uncertainty on unmeasured grid states based on certain online state measurements and noisy "pseudomeasurements." We analyze the convergence of the proposed algorithm and quantify the statistical estimation errors based on a weighted least-squares estimator. The numerical results on a 4521-node network demonstrate that this approach can scale to extremely large networks and provide robustness to both large pseudomeasurement variability and inherent sensor measurement noise.
Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods
Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.
CoSHA: Code for Stellar Properties Heuristic Assignment—for the MaStar Stellar Library
We introduce CoSHA: a Code for Stellar properties Heuristic Assignment. In order to estimate the stellar properties, CoSHA implements a Gradient Tree Boosting algorithm to label each star across the parameter space (T eff , $\mathrm{log}g$, [Fe/H], and [α/Fe]). We use CoSHA to estimate the stellar atmospheric parameters of 22,000 unique stars in the MaNGA Stellar Library (MaStar). To quantify the reliability of our approach, we run internal tests, using both the Göttingen Stellar Library (a theoretical library) and the first data release of MaStar, and external tests, by comparing the resulting distributions in the parameter space with the APOGEE estimates of the same properties. In summary, our parameter estimates span the ranges T eff = [2900, 12,000] K, $\mathrm{log}g=[-0.5,5.6]$, [Fe/H] = [-3.74, 0.81], and αM = [-0.22, 1.17]. We report internal (external) uncertainties of the properties of ${\sigma }_{{T}_{\mathrm{eff}}}\sim 43(240)$ K, ${\sigma }_{\mathrm{log}g}\sim 0.2(0.4)$, σ [Fe/H] ~ 0.16(0.24), and σ [α/Fe] ~ 0.09(0.08). These uncertainties are comparable to those of other methods with similar objectives. Despite the fact that CoSHA is not aware of the spatial distributions of these physical properties in the Milky Way, we are able to recover the main trends known in the literature. The catalog of physical properties for MaStar can be accessed online.
Network Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods
Currently real-time, ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate real-time volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.
New tree-ring data from Canadian boreal and hemi-boreal forests provide insight for improving the climate sensitivity of terrestrial biosphere models
Understanding boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to seasonal variations in temperature and water availability provides important basis for projecting the potential impacts of climate change on the productivity of these ecosystems. Our best available information currently comes from a limited number of field experiments and terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of varying predictive accuracy. Here, we assessed the sensitivity of annual boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth in Canada to yearly fluctuations in seasonal climate variables using a large tree-ring dataset and compared this to the climate sensitivity of annual net primary productivity (NPP) estimates obtained from fourteen TBMs. We found that boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to fluctuations in seasonal temperature and precipitation variables changed along a southwestern to northeastern gradient, with growth limited almost entirely by temperature in the northeast and west and by water availability in the southwest. We also found a lag in growth climate sensitivity, with growth largely determined by the climate during the summer prior to ring formation. Analyses of NPP sensitivity to the same climate variables produced a similar southwest to northeast gradient in growth climate sensitivity for NPP estimates from all but three TBMs. However, analyses of growth from tree-ring data and analyses of NPP from TBMs produced contrasting evidence concerning the key climate variables limiting growth. While analyses of NPP primarily indicated a positive relationship between growth and seasonal temperature, tree-ring analyses indicated negative growth relationships to temperature. Also, the positive effect of precipitation on NPP derived from most TBMs was weaker than the positive effect of precipitation on tree-ring based growth: temperature had a more important limiting effect on NPP than tree-ring data indicated. These mismatches regarding the key climate variables limiting growth suggested that characterization of tree growth in TBMs might need revision, particularly regarding the effects of stomatal conductance and carbohydrate reserve dynamics.
A high-resolution planetary boundary layer height seasonal climatology from GNSS radio occultations
We present a new seasonal planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) climatology product derived from 14 years of Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) data from multiple missions including COSMIC, TerraSAR-X, KOMPSAT-5, and PAZ. PBLH estimates are derived from the minimum gradients of retrieved refractivity profiles, with a vertical resolution of ~200 m. The climatology is obtained from occultations observed between June 2006 and December 2019, and is divided into land and ocean regimes on a 2-degree grid. We provide seasonal climatologies at 2-degree resolution as well as climatologies of diurnal cycle amplitude and phase at 5-degree resolution. The new GNSS PBLH climatology is compared to radiosonde data from the ship-based Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) campaign in the subtropical northeast Pacific ocean and to previous GNSS PBLH climatology estimates. The higher spatial resolution reveals new details such as seasonal PBLH modulation due to sea ice off the coast of Antarctica. The PBLH product is the first publicly available at 2-degree resolution.
Effects of topography on tropical forest structure depend on climate context
Abstract Topography affects abiotic conditions which can influence the structure, function and dynamics of ecological communities. An increasing number of studies have demonstrated biological consequences of fine‐scale topographic heterogeneity but we have a limited understanding of how these effects depend on the climate context. We merged high‐resolution (1 m 2 ) data on topography and canopy height derived from airborne lidar with ground‐based data from 15 forest plots in Puerto Rico distributed along a precipitation gradient spanning c . 800–3,500 mm/year. Ground‐based data included species composition, estimated above‐ground biomass (AGB), and two key functional traits (wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) that reflect resource‐use strategies and a trade‐off between hydraulic safety and hydraulic efficiency. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate how the interaction between topography × climate is related to metrics of forest structure (i.e. canopy height and AGB), as well as taxonomic and functional alpha‐ and beta‐diversity. Fine‐scale topography (characterized with the topographic wetness index, TWI) significantly affected forest structure and the strength (and in some cases direction) of these effects varied across the precipitation gradient. In all plots, canopy height increased with topographic wetness but the effect was much stronger in dry compared to wet forest plots. In dry forest plots, topographically wetter microsites also had higher levels of AGB but in wet forest plots, topographically drier microsites had higher AGB. Fine‐scale topography influenced functional composition but had only weak or non‐significant effects on taxonomic and functional alpha‐ and beta‐diversity. For instance, community‐weighted wood density followed a similar pattern to AGB across plots. We also found a marginally significant association between variation of wood density and topographic heterogeneity that depended on climate context. Synthesis . The effects of fine‐scale topographic heterogeneity on tropical forest structure and composition depend on the climate context. Our study demonstrates how a stronger integration of topographic heterogeneity across precipitation gradients could improve estimates of forest structure and biomass, and may provide insight to the ways that topography might mediate species responses to drought and climate change.
Measuring a Low Horizontal Hydraulic Gradient in a High Transmissivity Aquifer
Abstract High transmissivity aquifers typically have low hydraulic gradients (i.e., a flat water table). Measuring low gradients using water levels can be problematic because measurement error may be greater than the true difference in water levels (i.e., a low signal‐to‐noise ratio). In this study, the feasibility of measuring a hydraulic gradient in the range of 10 −6 to 10 −5 m/m was demonstrated. The study was performed at a site where the depth to water from land surface ranged from 40.1 to 94.2 m and the aquifer transmissivity was estimated at 41,300 m 2 /d (hydraulic conductivity of 18,800 m/d). The goals of the study were to reduce measurement error as much as practicable and assess the importance of factors affecting water level measurement accuracy. Well verticality was the largest source of error (0.000 to 0.168 m; median of 0.014 m), and geodetic survey of casing elevations was the next most important source of error (0.002 to 0.013 m; median of 0.005 m). Variability due to barometric pressure fluctuations was not an important factor at the site. Hydraulic heads were measured to an accuracy of ±0.0065 m, and the average hydraulic gradient was estimated to be 8.0 × 10 −6 (±0.9 × 10 −6 ) m/m. The improvement in accuracy allowed for two reversals in the groundwater flow direction to be identified, after which the gradient averaged 2.5 × 10 −5 (±0.4 × 10 −5 ) m/m. This study showed it is possible to sufficiently control sources of error to measure hydraulic gradients in the 10 −6 to 10 −5 m/m range.
FFT-based solver for higher-order and multi-phase-field fracture models applied to strongly anisotropic brittle materials
This paper presents the application of a fast Fourier transform (FFT) based method to solve two phase field models designed to simulate crack growth of strongly anisotropic materials in the brittle regime. By leveraging the ability of the FFT-based solver to generate solutions with higher-order and global continuities, we design two simple algorithms to capture the complex fracture patterns (e.g. sawtooth, and curved crack growth) common in materials with strongly anisotropic surface energy via the multi-phase-field and high-order phase-field frameworks. A staggered operator-split solver is used where both the balance of linear momentum and the phase field governing equations are formulated in the periodic domain. The unit phase field of the initial failure region is prescribed by the penalty method to alleviate the sharp material contrast between the initial failure region and the base material. The discrete frequency vectors are generalized to estimate the second and fourth order gradients such that the Gibbs effect near shape interfaces or jump conditions can be suppressed. Furthermore, a preconditioner is adopted to improve the convergence rate of the iterative linear solver. Three numerical experiments are used to systematically compare the performance of the FFT-based method in the multi-phase-field and high-order phase-field frameworks.
Convergence of variational Monte Carlo simulation and scale-invariant pre-training
We provide theoretical convergence bounds for the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) method as applied to optimize neural network wave functions for the electronic structure problem. Here, we study both the energy minimization phase and the supervised pre-training phase that is commonly used prior to energy minimization. For the energy minimization phase, the standard algorithm is scale-invariant by design, and we provide a proof of convergence for this algorithm without modifications. The pre-training stage typically does not feature such scale-invariance. We propose using a scale-invariant loss for the pretraining phase and demonstrate empirically that it leads to faster pre-training.
Thermometry of an open spatially inhomogeneous flame by diode laser absorption spectroscopy
Features of a single-beam variant of diode laser absorption spectroscopy (DLAS) used for temperature measurements in a spatially inhomogeneous hot zone are studied. A flame temperature of a commercial burner is measured by using water molecule absorption lines. The flame is probed by a diode laser radiation at various heights and in various directions. The correctness of DLAS measurement results is verified by comparing DLAS data with temperatures measured by the method of coherent anti-Stokes scattering (CARS). It is shown that in homogeneous flame domains the temperatures obtained by both the methods coincide. Temperature inhomogeneity along the probe beam direction is a principal problem of DLAS, in which case the method yields information about some effective temperature along the light trace. The difference in data obtained by DLAS and CARS is estimated. In probing traces with temperature gradients the difference reaches 700 K. Possibilities of accounting for temperature inhomogeneities along the trace in DLAS measurements are discussed. A method of differential spectra is suggested, which in certain conditions can provide substantially better coincidence of results for the two methods. (laser spectroscopy)