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At least 109 records · Page 6

Evaluation of Monin‐Obukhov Similarity Theory Wind Profiles in Convective Storm Environments and Cold Pools at the ARM Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory

Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is widely used in numerical weather prediction to model surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and water vapor. However, MOST is based on assumptions of steady state and horizontally homogeneous turbulence that can lead to prediction errors in and around convective storms. To understand the nature of these errors, we used wind and eddy covariance flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory to evaluate MOST wind profiles in fair-weather and convective storm environments, specifically those of mesoscale convective systems and ordinary thunderstorms. MOST wind profiles agreed well with observations in fair-weather cases, while in convective storm cases the theory systematically overestimated shear in cold pools after gust front passage. Surface layer stability was found to be important in assessing MOST within convective storm environments. The overestimation of wind shear in cold pools suggests the role of non-local fluxes in transferring momentum downward. We discuss reasons for differences and agreement with past studies, and conclude with recommendations to improve prediction of surface winds and fluxes in convective storm simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Biogeochemistry of upland to wetland soils, sediments, and surface waters across Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes coastal interfaces

Transferable and mechanistic understanding of cross-scale interactions is necessary to predict how coastal systems respond to global change. Cohesive datasets across geographically distributed sites can be used to examine how transferable a mechanistic understanding of coastal ecosystem control points is. To address the above research objectives, data were collected by the EXploration of Coastal Hydrobiogeochemistry Across a Network of Gradients and Experiments (EXCHANGE) Consortium – a regionally distributed network of researchers that collaborated on experimental design, methodology, collection, analysis, and publication. The EXCHANGE Consortium collected samples from 52 coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) during Fall of 2021. At each TAI, samples collected include soils from across a transverse elevation gradient (i.e., coastal upland forest, transitional forest, and wetland soils), surface waters, and nearshore sediments across research sites in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions (Chesapeake and Delaware Bays) of the continental USA. The first campaign measures surface water quality parameters, bulk geochemical parameters on water, soil, and sediment samples, and physicochemical parameters of sediment and soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The evolution of high-density cores of the BOSS Great Wall superclusters

Context. High-density cores (HDCs) of galaxy superclusters that embed rich clusters and groups of galaxies are the earliest large objects to form in the cosmic web, and the largest objects that may collapse in the present or future. Aims. We aim to study the dynamical state and possible evolution of the HDCs in the BOSS Great Wall (BGW) superclusters at redshift z ≈ 0.5 from the CMASS (constant mass) galaxy sample, based on the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) in order to understand the growth and evolution of structures in the Universe. Methods. We analysed the luminosity density distribution in the BGW superclusters to determine the HDCs in them. We derived the density contrast values for the spherical collapse model in a wide range of redshifts and used these values to study the dynamical state and possible evolution of the HDCs of the BGW superclusters. The masses of the HDCs were calculated using stellar masses of galaxies in them. We found the masses and radii of the turnaround and future collapse regions in the HDCs of the BGW superclusters and compared them with those of local superclusters. Results. We determined eight HDCs in the BGW superclusters. The masses of their turnaround regions are in the range of M T ≈ 0.4–3.3 × 10 15 h -1 M ⊙ , and radii are in the range of R T ≈ 3.5–7 h -1 Mpc. The radii of their future collapse regions are in the range of R FC ≈ 4–8 h -1 Mpc. Distances between individual cores in superclusters are much larger: of the order of 25–35 h -1 Mpc. The richness and sizes of the HDCs are comparable with those of the HDCs of the richest superclusters in the local Universe. Conclusions. The BGW superclusters will probably evolve to several poorer superclusters with masses similar to those of the local superclusters. This may weaken the tension with the ΛCDM model, which does not predict a large number of very rich and large superclusters in our local cosmic neighbourhood, and explains why there are no superclusters as elongated as those in the BGW in the local Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pb dimerization greatly accelerates charge losses in MAPbI 3 : Time-domain ab initio analysis

Metal halide perovskites constitute a new type of semiconducting materials with long charge carrier lifetimes and efficient light-harvesting. The performance of perovskite solar cells and related devices is limited by nonradiative charge and energy losses, facilitated by defects. Combining nonadiabatic molecular dynamics and time-domain density functional theory, we demonstrate that charge losses depend strongly on the defect chemical state. By considering an extra Pb atom in CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3 , which is a common defect in lead halide perovskites, we investigate its influence on charge trapping and recombination. In a chemically inert form as a Pb interstitial, the extra Pb atom has only a mild influence on charge recombination. However, if the extra Pb atom binds to a native Pb atom to form a dimer, the charge trapping and recombination are greatly accelerated because the Pb-dimer creates a localized midgap trap state that couples strongly to the perovskite valence band edge. Holes disappear from the valence band two orders of magnitude faster than in the pristine perovskite and recombine with conduction band electrons one order of magnitude faster. The simulations identify the phonon modes involved in the nonradiative charge trapping and recombination and highlight the importance of rapid decoherence within the electronic subsystem for long carrier lifetimes. The detailed atomistic analysis of the charge trapping and recombination mechanisms enriches the understanding of defect properties and provides theoretical guidance for improving perovskite performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Case study of a bore wind-ramp event from lidar measurements and HRRR simulations over ARM Southern Great Plains

The rapid change of wind speed and direction on 21 August 2017 is studied using Doppler lidar measurements at five sites of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility in north-central Oklahoma. The Doppler lidar data were investigated along with meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and turbulence available from the large suite of instrumentation deployed at the SGP Central Facility (C1) during the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment in August 2017. Lidar measurements at five sites, separated by 55-70 km, allowed us to document the development and evolution of the wind flow over the SGP area, examine synoptic conditions to understand the mechanism that leads to the ramp event, and estimate the ability of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model to reproduce this event. The flow feature in question is an atmospheric bore, a small-scale phenomenon that is challenging to represent in models, that was generated by a thunderstorm outflow northwest of the ARM SGP area. The small-scale nature of bores, its impact on power generation, and the modeling challenges associated with representing bores are discussed in this paper. In conclusion, the results also provide information about model errors between sites of different surface and vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III competition: Overview and results

In late 2019, ASHRAE hosted the Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) machine learning competition on the Kaggle platform. This launch marked the third energy prediction competition from ASHRAE and the first since the mid-1990s. In this updated version, the competitors were provided with over 20 million points of training data from 2,380 energy meters collected for 1,448 buildings from 16 sources. This competition’s overall objective was to find the most accurate modeling solutions for the prediction of over 41 million private and public test data points. Furthermore, the competition had 4,370 participants, split across 3,614 teams from 94 countries who submitted 39,403 predictions. In addition to the top five winning workflows, the competitors publicly shared 415 reproducible online machine learning workflow examples (notebooks), including over 40 additional, full solutions. This paper gives a high-level overview of the competition preparation and dataset, competitors and their discussions, machine learning workflows and models generated, winners and their submissions, discussion of lessons learned, and competition outputs and next steps. The most popular and accurate machine learning workflows used large ensembles of mostly gradient boosting tree models, such as LightGBM. Similar to the first predictor competition, preprocessing of the data sets emerged as a key differentiator.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cloud condensation nuclei characteristics at the Southern Great Plains site: role of particle size distribution and aerosol hygroscopicity

The activation ability of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is crucial in climate and hydrological cycle studies, but their properties are not well known. We investigated the long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol properties, CCN concentrations (N CCN ) at supersaturation (SS = 0.1%–1.0%), and hygroscopicity at the Department of Energy's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to illustrate the dependence of N CCN on aerosol properties and transport pathways. Cluster analysis was applied to the back trajectories of air masses to investigate their respective source regions. The results showed that aged biomass burning aerosols from Central America were characterized by higher accumulation mode particles (N accu ; median value 805 cm -3 ) and relatively high aerosol hygroscopicity (κ; median value ~0.25) values that result in the higher CCN activation and relatively high N CCN (median value 258–1578 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%). Aerosols from the Gulf of Mexico were characterized by higher N accu (~35%), and N CCN (230–1721 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with the lowest κ (~0.17). In contrast, relatively high nucleation mode particles (N nucl ; ~20%) and low N CCN (128–1553 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with higher κ (~0.30) values were observed on the aerosols associated with a westerly wind. The results indicate particle size as the most critical factor influencing the ability of aerosols to activate, whereas the effect of chemical composition was secondary. Our CCN closure analysis suggests that chemical composition and mixing state information are more crucial at lower SS, whereas at higher SS, most particles become activated regardless of their chemical composition and size. This study affirms that soluble organic fraction information is required at higher SS for better N CCN prediction, but both the soluble organics fraction and mixing state are vital to reduce the N CCN prediction uncertainty at lower SS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Melampsora americana Population on Salix purpurea in the Great Lakes Region Is Highly Diverse with a Contributory Influence of Clonality

Shrub willows (Salix spp.) are emerging as a viable lignocellulosic, second-generation bioenergy crop with many growth characteristics favorable for marginal lands in New York State and surrounding areas. Willow rust, caused by members of the genus Melampsora, is the most limiting disease of shrub willow in this region and remains extremely understudied. In this study, genetic diversity, genetic structure, and pathogen clonality were examined in Melampsora americana over two growing seasons via genotyping-by-sequencing to identify single-nucleotide polymorphism markers. In conjunction with this project, a reference genome of rust isolate R15-033-03 was generated to aid in variant discovery. Sampling between years allowed regional and site-specific investigation into population dynamics, in the context of both wild and cultivated hosts within high-density plantings. This work revealed that this pathogen is largely panmictic over the sampled areas, with few sites showing moderate genetic differentiation. These data support the hypothesis of sexual recombination between growing seasons because no genotype persisted across the two years of sampling. Additionally, clonality was determined as a driver of pathogen populations within cultivated fields and single shrubs; however, there is also evidence of high genetic diversity of rust isolates in all settings. This work provides a framework for M. americana population structure in the Great Lakes region, providing crucial information that can aid in future resistance breeding efforts.

Plant Sciences↗

Coordinated Control of Natural and Sub-Synchronous Oscillations via HVDC Links in Great Britain Power System

Conventional power oscillation damping (POD) controllers have been designed to be effective in damping either inter-area low-frequency oscillations (LFO) or sub-synchronous oscillations (SSO). For those POD controls, model-based control design method has been widely implemented with wide-area feedback signals from phasor measurement units (PMU). However, the model accuracy of a large realistic power system can hardly be guaranteed, which will finally impact the POD damping performance. In this paper, a measurement-based method is proposed for POD design using High Voltage Direct Current links (HVDC) to realize the coordinated control of both LFO and SSO. For each type of oscillations, a band-pass filter is added to avoid the interactions between different modes. Case studies are carried out on the Great Britain 36-bus power system model with multiple HVDC links in DIgSILENT/PowerFactory. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed PODs are effective in damping inter-area LFO and SSO simultaneously.

Zhao, Yi↗

Rising Water Levels and Vegetation Shifts Drive Substantial Reductions in Methane Emissions and Carbon Dioxide Uptake in a Great Lakes Coastal Freshwater Wetland

ABSTRACT Coastal freshwater wetlands are critical ecosystems for both local and global carbon cycles, sequestering substantial carbon while also emitting methane (CH 4 ) due to anoxic conditions. Estuarine freshwater wetlands face unique challenges from fluctuating water levels, which influence water quality, vegetation, and carbon cycling. However, the response of CH 4 fluxes and their drivers to altered hydrology and vegetation remains unclear, hindering mechanistic modeling. To address these knowledge gaps, we studied an estuarine freshwater wetland in the Great Lakes region, where rising water levels led to a vegetation shift from emergent Typha dominance in 2015–2016 to floating‐leaved species in 2020–2022. Using eddy covariance flux measurements during the peak growing season (June–September) of both periods, we observed a 60% decrease in CH 4 emissions, from 81 ± 4 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to 31 ± 3 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. This decline was driven by two main factors: (1) higher water levels, which suppressed ebullitive fluxes via increased hydrostatic pressure and extended CH 4 residence time, enhancing oxidation potential in the water column; and (2) reduced CH 4 conductance through plants. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) uptake decreased by 90%, from −267 ± 26 g C m −2 in 2015–2016 to −27 ± 49 g C m −2 in 2020–2022. Additionally, diel CH 4 flux patterns shifted, with a distinct morning peak observed in 2015–2016 but absent in 2020–2022, suggesting changes in plant‐mediated transport and a potential decoupling from photosynthesis. The dominant factors influencing CH 4 fluxes shifted from water temperature and gross primary productivity in 2015–2016 to atmospheric pressure in 2020–2022, suggesting an increased role of ebullition as a primary transport pathway. Our results demonstrate that changes in water levels and vegetation can substantially alter CH 4 and CO 2 fluxes in coastal freshwater wetlands, underscoring the critical role of hydrological shifts in driving carbon dynamics in these ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of WRF simulation of deep convection in the US Southern Great Plains

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) exhibits a relatively high frequency of periods with extremely high rainfall rates (RR) and hail. Here, seven months of 2017 are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied at convection permitting resolution with the Mibrandt-Yau microphysics scheme. Simulation fidelity is evaluated, particularly during intense convective events, using data from ASOS stations, dual-polarization RADAR, gridded data sets and observations at the DoE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site. The spatial gradients and temporal variability of precipitation and the cumulative density functions for both RR and wind speeds exhibit fidelity. Odds ratios >1 indicate WRF is also skillful in simulating high composite reflectivity (cREF, used as a measure of widespread convection) and RR > 5 mmhr –1 over the domain. Detailed analyses of the ten days with highest spatial coverage of cREF >30 dBZ show spatially similar reflectivity fields and high RR in both RADAR data and WRF simulations. However, during periods of high reflectivity, WRF exhibits a positive bias in terms of very high RR (> 25 mmhr –1 ) and hail occurrence, and during the summer and transition months, maximum hail size is underestimated. For some renewable energy applications fidelity is required with respect to the joint probabilities of wind speed and RR and/or hail. While partial fidelity is achieved for the marginal probabilities, performance during events of critical importance to these energy applications is currently not sufficient. Further research into optimal WRF configurations in support of potential damage quantification for these applications is warranted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of Boundary Layer Convergence Lines and Associated Updrafts in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Boundary layer convergence lines (CLs) are highly effective at deep-convection initiation (DCI), suggesting that their associated updraft properties differ from those of more widespread turbulent updrafts in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). This study exploits observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) observatory in Oklahoma from 2011 to 2016 to quantify CL properties and their relation to turbulent PBL eddies preceding CL arrival. Two independent methods for estimating CL properties are developed at two locations in the SGP region, both relying on the assumption of a 2D circulation in the CL-normal plane but using different combinations of instruments. The first (the radar method) relies mainly on scanning radar data and is applied to 61 CLs passing near a high-resolution scanning radar based in Nardin, Oklahoma, while the second (the surface method) relies mainly on surface wind data and is applied to 68 CLs crossing the SGP facility in nearby Lamont, Oklahoma. Mean daytime (1000–1900 LST) CL width (∼2 km) and convergence magnitude (∼0.003 s −1 ) are similar for both methods, and mean daytime CL depth is ∼0.75 km. The two methods disagree at night (0000–1000 and 1900–2400 LST), where the surface method estimates wider and weaker CLs than the radar method. This difference may stem from the radar beam overshooting the shallow, highly stable nocturnal PBL. The largest CL updrafts are slightly wider (∼20%) and stronger (∼40%) than the largest PBL updrafts in the pre-CL period, generating 50%–100% larger updraft mass fluxes over most of the PBL depth. Significance Statement Deep convection is commonly initiated by boundary layer convergence lines (CLs), which are associated with intense surface-based wind convergence and strong updrafts that may lift air to saturation. Although CLs form regularly, they are far less common than ordinary, short-lived turbulent thermals in the daytime boundary layer. To better understand why CLs are so effective at deep-convection initiation, we observationally quantify their morphologies and strengths and compare these properties to those of surrounding turbulent updrafts. Perhaps surprisingly, the CLs are found to exhibit only slightly larger scales and strengths as the turbulent updrafts. Although these marginal increases help to explain the preference for storms to initiate along CLs, they likely are not the whole story.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗

Land–Atmosphere Coupling at the U.S. Southern Great Plains: A Comparison on Local Convective Regimes between ARM Observations, Reanalysis, and Climate Model Simulations

Using the 9-yr warm-season observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site, in this work we assess the land–atmosphere (LA) coupling in the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and two climate models: hindcasts with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 by Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAM5-CAPT) and nudged runs with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1 Regionally Refined Model (EAMv1-RRM). We focus on three local convective regimes and diagnose model behaviors using the local coupling metrics. NARR agrees well with observations except a slightly warmer and drier surface with higher downwelling shortwave radiation and lower evaporative fraction. On clear-sky days, it shows warmer and drier early-morning conditions in both models with significant underestimates in surface evaporation by EAMv1-RRM. On the majority of the ARM-observed shallow cumulus days, there is no or little low-level clouds in either model. When captured in models, the simulated shallow cumulus shows much less cloud fraction and lower cloud bases than observed. On the days with late-afternoon deep convection, models tend to present a stable early-morning lower atmosphere more frequently than the observations, suggesting that the deep convection is triggered more often by elevated instabilities. Generally, CAM5-CAPT can reproduce the local LA coupling processes to some extent due to the constrained early-morning conditions and large-scale winds. EAMv1-RRM exhibits large precipitation deficits and warm and dry biases toward mid-to-late summers, which may be an amplification through a positive LA feedback among initial atmosphere and land states, convection triggering and large-scale circulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal response to fire and urbanization in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity as drier and warmer climates increase plant detrital fuel loads. At the same time, increases in urbanization position 9% of fire-prone land within the United States at the wildland–urban interface. While rarely studied, the compounded effects of urbanization and wildfires may have unknown synergistically negative effects on ecosystems. Previous studies at the wildland–urban interface often focus on aboveground plant communities, but belowground ecosystems may also be affected by this double disturbance. In particular, it is unclear how much fire and urbanization independently or interactively affect nutritional symbioses such as those between arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and the majority of terrestrial plants. In November 2016, extreme drought conditions and long-term fire suppression combined to create a wildfire within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the neighboring exurban city of Gatlinburg, TN. To understand how the double disturbance of urbanization and fire affected AM fungal communities, we collected fine roots from the 5 dominant understory species in September 2018 at each of 18 sites spanning 3 burn severities in both exurban and natural sites. Despite large variation in burn severity, plant species identity had the largest influence on AM fungi. AM fungal colonization, richness, and composition all varied most among plant species. Fire and urbanization did influence some AM fungal metrics; colonization was lower in burned sites and composition was more variable among exurban locations. There were no interactions among burn severity and urbanization on AM fungi. Our results point to the large influence of plant species identity structuring this obligate nutritional symbiosis regardless of disturbance regime. Therefore, the majority of AM fungal taxa may be buffered from fire-induced ecosystem changes if plant community composition largely remains intact, plant species life history traits allow for AM fungal persistence after fire disturbance, and/or nearby undisturbed habitat can act as an inoculum source for recolonization following fires. Thus, it is critical to maintain natural, undisturbed habitats interspersed within the wildland–urban interface.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Great Pyramid

For centuries, the pyramids at Giza have been the object of frequent speculation and study. L. Alvarez et al. in 1970 and the ScanPyramids collaboration in 2017 have very successfully implemented HEP detector technology to image the pyramid of Khafre and the Great Pyramid of Khufu, respectively. Numerous questions about Khufu’s structure remain, however. The EGP project aims to undertake a new study of this enigmatic monument’s interior by applying high-resolution tomographic imaging and reconstruction, which will permit a detailed understanding of internal variations in density and may offer insight regarding exactly how Egypt’s largest pyramid was built.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Play Fairway Analysis: Structurally Controlled Geothermal Systems in the Eastern Great Basin Extensional Regime, Utah

A research team with membership from the University of Utah/Energy & Geoscience Institute, the University of Utah/Dept. of Geology & Geophysics, and the Utah Geological Survey, undertook a play fairway analysis (PFA) for geothermal resources in the Eastern Great Basin (EGB) extensional tectonic regime of western Utah. This is a high-priority region for geothermal exploration because active Basin and Range (B&R) extension with volcanism having a N-S strike is superimposed upon pre-existing E-W belts of plutonic rocks and large-scale structural lineaments. Cumulative heat flow along the N-S strike of the state totals approximately 5 GWt above background stable interior. Three electricity producing power plants currently exist with substantial potential for increase. Succinctly, our PFA approach aims to resolve potential sources of heat and permeability in the region, which are the two principal criteria for establishing a geothermal resource. An initial Phase 1 was carried out using only existing geoscientific data in the area. Criteria selected for focusing heat potential include direct heat flow measurements in boreholes, magnetotelluric (MT) low resistivity anomalies, fluid/gas geochemistry, and proximity to recent volcanic eruptions. Permeability is established through geological structures (fault density, critically stressed areas, seismicity, gravity), and MT low resistivity anomalies. In Phase II of this PFA project, additional geological, geophysical and geochemical data were acquired and analysis carried out primarily over promising composite common risk (CCR) areas initially identified in Phase I in order to focus prospectivity and prepare for drilling recommendations. These prospects are near the Twin Peaks rhyolite field, high heat flow areas north of the producing Cove Fort system, and geophysical structure beneath the Crater Knoll area off the northeast flank of the Mineral Mountains. Additional data included MT site fill-in, structural mapping and analysis using high-resolution imagery, gravity and on-ground mapping, Nodal 3C passive seismic collection, and passive 3He surveying. Heat source and permeability potential are again expressed in terms of their individual common risk segment (CRS) maps, with a color scheme using green for most favorable (low risk) and red for least favorable (high risk). Diverse data types are united through the technique of probability kriging, which establishes prospectivity thresholds for each data type and then computes probability of exceeding that threshold over the PFA area. Modified CRS and CCRS maps are compared to those of Phase I to highlight tighter prospectivity focus. In doing so, the prospectivity threshold for heat was increased significantly to narrow the targeting. In the final Phase III of this project where a recommended deep thermal gradient hole was sited, additional geophysical, geochemical and geological field collection and analysis was carried out to refine drill hole targeting. This includes prospect-scale MT, gravity, structure, passive seismic deployment (Cove Fort area), and detailed 3He isotope profiling. It was the recommendation of the DOE Technical Monitoring Team (TMT) that one or more holes be sited in the north-ern Cove Fort area where legacy TG gradient holes showed high cumulative heat flow. These were to be of moderate depth, 2000-3000 feet, to reach the geothermal fluid table expected to start in excess of 1000 feet depth. The drilling organization stipulated by the DOE/GTO was that of the USGS Research Drilling Program (RDP) centered in Las Vegas, NV. A detailed well plan, appended to this report, was developed principally by Dr. Ben Barker consulting to University of Utah, Dr. Steve Pye on the DOE TMT, Mr. Steven Crawford of the USGS-RDP, and the project PI Phil Wannamaker. However, temperature and possible H 2 S at the systems lead to cancellation of the drilling last-minute as this appeared outside the experience base of the USGS-RDP. We hope to have the opportunity to revisit the test drilling and expand the Play Fairway Analysis of this region at some point in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗