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MERRA-2 Input Observations: Summary and Assessment

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is an atmospheric reanalysis, spanning 1980 through near-realtime, that uses state-of-the-art processing of observations from the continually evolving global observing system. The effectiveness of any reanalysis is a function not only of the input observations themselves, but also of how the observations are handled in the assimilation procedure. Relevant issues to consider include, but are not limited to, data selection, data preprocessing, quality control, bias correction procedures, and blacklisting. As the assimilation algorithm and earth system models are fundamentally fixed in a reanalysis, it is often a change in the character of the observations, and their feedbacks on the system, that cause changes in the character of the reanalysis. It is therefore important to provide documentation of the observing system so that its discontinuities and transitions can be readily linked to discontinuities seen in the gridded atmospheric fields of the reanalysis. With this in mind, this document provides an exhaustive list of the input observations, the context under which they are assimilated, and an initial assessment of selected core observations fundamental to the reanalysis.

Satellite Observations↗

Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation

As a result of the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP and other operational NPP experience, there is an identified need to better characterize and evaluate the potential impacts of externally generated hazards on NPP safety. Due to the ubiquitous occurrence of high winds around the world and the possible extreme magnitude of the hazard that has been observed, the assessment of the impact of the high-winds hazard has been identified as an important activity by both NPP owner-operators and regulatory authorities. However, recent experience obtained from the conduct of high-winds risk assessments indicates that such activities have been both labor-intensive and expensive to perform. Additionally, the existing suite of methods and tools to conduct such assessments (which were developed decades ago) do not make use of modern computational architectures (e.g., parallel processing, object-oriented programming techniques, or simple user interfaces) or methods (e.g., efficient and robust numerical-solution schemes). As a result, the current suite of methods and tools will rapidly become obsolete. Physics-based 3D simulation methods can provide information to assist in the RISMC PRA methodology. This research is intended to determine what benefits SPH methods could bring to high-winds simulations for the purposes of assessing their potential impact on NPP safety. The initial investigation has determined that SPH can simulate key areas of high-wind events with reasonable accuracy, compared to other methods. Some problems, such as simulation voids, need to be addressed, but possible solutions have been identified and will be tested with continued work. This work also demonstrated that SPH simulations can provide a means for simulating debris movement; however, further investigations into the capability to determine the impact of high winds and the impacts of wind-driven debris that lead to SSC failures need to be done. SPH simulations alone would be limited in size and computation time. An advanced method of combing results from grid-based methods with SPH through a data-driven model is proposed. This method could allow for more accurate simulation of particle movement near rigid bodies even with larger SPH particle sizes. If successful, the data-driven model would eliminate the need for a SPH turbulence model and increase the simulation domain size. Continued research beyond the scope of this project will be needed in order to determine the viability of a data-driven model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Pumped Storage Hydropower Augmented with Pressurized Air: The Ground-Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES) System — GLIDES System Configurations and Use Cases

Energy storage is essential for cost-effective integration of variable renewable energy sources to support a low-carbon grid. It is also a key enabler of a modern grid infrastructure for demand management. However, several main challenges remain for different kind of energy storage technologies in grid scale deployment. Currently, the largest source of utility-scale storage and long-duration storage in the US is pumped storage hydropower (PSH). Prospect of growth in conventional PSH faces challenges that have limited its deployment over the last three decades, including high capital costs and long deployment timelines. Batteries have high energy densities and are the primary technology of choice for small-scale energy storage. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) is another large-scale energy storage technology, but there are few plants deployed worldwide. They suffer from their low round trip efficiency (RTE) due to the use of high-pressure air compressors. To address some of the challenges associated with these various storage technologies, the Ground-Level Integrated Diverse Energy Storage (GLIDES) is a modular PSH technology that was invented in 2015 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It utilizes gas compression to store electric energy. GLIDES stores energy by compressing gas using a liquid piston in high-pressure vessels. In doing so the vessels act as the upper reservoir in conventional PSH. Initially, the vessels are filled with gas to a prescribed pressure. To store energy, GLIDES uses a hydraulic piston pump to pump water into the pressurized vessels. As the water volume increases inside the vessels, water acts as a hydraulic piston compressing the gas on top of it. This process can be thought of as pumping water from the lower reservoir to the higher reservoir in PSH, increasing the water head. To dispatch the stored energy, the high-head water in the vessel is discharge through a high head Pelton hydraulic turbine that is connected to an electric generator. Employing high-pressure vessels enables GLIDES to reach water heads ~10-80 times higher than conventional PSH, achieving ~40 times higher energy densities, and overcomes the geographic limitation of conventional PSH. Although its energy density is much lower than that of batteries, GLIDES holds the potential advantages of having long service life, ease of system integration and being less hazardous over batteries. GLIDES prospective scalability could make it suitable for wide range of applications from behind the meter storage in buildings to grid-scale storage. It also makes it suitable for installations in densely populated urban areas where energy storage is most needed and real estate is limited. Over the last 5 years, work has focused on increasing GLIDES’ energy density, decreasing its initial capital cost of the system, and increasing its revenue potential. Several designs were developed and prototyped to verify and demonstrate the improvement in energy density. The latest prototype achieved energy density of 1.21 kWh/m 3 . Our analysis showed that it could achieve up to 1.7 kWh/m 3 with a mixture of air and carbon dioxide as the gas being compressed.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Intelligent load pattern modeling and denoising using improved variational mode decomposition for various calendar periods

This paper proposes a novel approach to identify the load patterns considering calendar impact and denoising process, which advances the state of art of load identification and load forecasting to a more flexible and adaptive extent by revealing the correlation between load profile and the substantial influence factors. With the rapid development and the promising application of energy intemet and grid modernization, the accurate load modeling and forecasting especially by load pattern modeling (LPM) have become more and more critical to observe and estimate load profile so as to optimize the operation efficiency of the power grid. Traditional methods mostly focus on the static LPM itself which are unable to account the non-linear and highly dynamic load fluctuations in order to balance the demand of the power grid during various calendar period (VCP) scheduling. In this paper, a load pattern modeling method for power grid considering the impact of typical calendar effects is proposed using a combination of improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) and deep belief network (DBN) algorithm. Firstly, an index of load curve curvature (LCC) is proposed to improve the selection of value K in the conventional VMD algorithm. The value K of the intrinsic modality is determined by adopting LCC to better quantify the average instantaneous frequency of the modal decomposition of the VMD and to reduce the elevated stochasticity of k. Secondly, an optimization formulation is developed based on adaptive segmented loop decomposition of the typical correlation coefficient to suppress the edge effect in VMD decomposition, which would enable the reconstructed curve to incorporate the variabilities from the initial data. Finally, the IVMD and DBN algorithms are jointly implemented to optimize the accuracy of VCP load pattern modeling curve regression. Numerical examples have been performed with the results proving that the proposed method significantly outperforms the state-of-art in reducing the modeling error of VCP load curve, improving the overall forecasting accuracy, and reducing load dispatching cost.

deep belief network↗

Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) FAST Commissioning Prize Technical Analysis

The US energy landscape has undergone major changes over the past 10 years and will continue to see significant changes in future decades as the power grid increases its reliance on variable renewable energy resources. Because of the inherent variability of these resources, renewable energy growth may require additional energy storage capacity to provide flexible load-following capabilities and other grid services that can quickly adjust to changes in energy demand and generation. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH)—one such energy storage technology—uses pumps to convey water from a lower reservoir to an upper reservoir for energy storage and releases water back to the lower reservoir via a powerhouse for hydropower generation. PSH facility pump and generation cycling often follows economic and energy demand conditions. Across the United States, 43 PSH facilities are in operation and 55 projects are in various permitting or licensing stages. Altogether, the 43 operational projects provide the wide majority (95%) of utility-scale electricity storage in the United States. These facilities also provide significant power and nonpower grid benefits, including large-scale electrical system reserve capacity, grid reliability support, and electricity supply-demand balancing through quick-response capabilities and operational flexibility. PSH systems can accomplish these at a scale (e.g., size) and cost that makes these systems highly attractive from a technical standpoint. Although these research concepts are still in their infancy, they demonstrate promising potential as future PSH energy storage technologies. Although PSH has many advantages, development in the United States has effectively stalled since the 1990s, partially because of the magnitude of project costs and financing interest during development and construction, the length of time from project investment until project revenue begins, permitting challenges, construction risks, competition from other storage technologies (e.g., batteries, hydrogen storage), and electricity market evolution and uncertainty. In short, the time, cost, and risk associated with modern PSH development have resulted in limited growth in the United States recently, despite the growing energy storage demand stemming from increased wind and solar power deployment. Technology innovation is needed to help reduce PSH commissioning time, cost, and risk, particularly during the post-licensing phase of project development. To address challenges facing the PSH industry and to improve PSH commissioning timelines, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) initiated the PSH Furthering Advancements to Shorten Time to (FAST) Commissioning Prize project.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Cybersecurity Considerations for Grid-Connected Batteries with Hardware Demonstrations

The share of renewable and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind turbines, solar photovoltaics and grid-connected batteries, interconnected to the electric grid is rapidly increasing due to reduced costs, rising efficiency, and regulatory requirements aimed at incentivizing a lower-carbon electricity system. These distributed energy resources differ from traditional generation in many ways including the use of many smaller devices connected primarily (but not exclusively) to the distribution network, rather than few larger devices connected to the transmission network. DERs being installed today often include modern communication hardware like cellular modems and WiFi connectivity and, in addition, the inverters used to connect these resources to the grid are gaining increasingly complex capabilities, like providing voltage and frequency support or supporting microgrids. To perform these new functions safely, communications to the device and more complex controls are required. The distributed nature of DER devices combined with their network connectivity and complex controls interfaces present a larger potential attack surface for adversaries looking to create instability in power systems. To address this area of concern, the steps of a cyberattack on DERs have been studied, including the security of industrial protocols, the misuse of the DER interface, and the physical impacts. These different steps have not previously been tied together in practice and not specifically studied for grid-connected storage devices. In this work, we focus on grid-connected batteries. We explore the potential impacts of a cyberattack on a battery to power system stability, to the battery hardware, and on economics for various stakeholders. We then use real hardware to demonstrate end-to-end attack paths exist when security features are disabled or misconfigured. Our experimental focus is on control interface security and protocol security, with the initial assumption that an adversary has gained access to the network to which the device is connected. We provide real examples of the effectiveness of certain defenses. This work can be used to help utilities and other grid-connected battery owners and operators evaluate the severity of different threats and the effectiveness of defense strategies so they can effectively deploy and protect grid-connected storage devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Technologies to Reactors: Enabling Accelerated Deployment of Nuclear Energy Systems Workshop Report

Nuclear energy provides almost 20% of the electric power in the United States, producing power with high availability while accounting for 63% of our carbon-free energy production. While we have the capacity to expand this clean power source within the United States, we have not built any advanced reactor plant designs in our rapidly evolving electricity generation market, where cost is a major driver. With construction cost and plant safety being major elements of cost for new nuclear, advanced reactor technologies could provide lower cost, safer, carbon-free, grid-resilient energy sources for the US electricity grid. When the current fleet of nuclear reactors was originally designed, many of today’s science and technology (S&T) advances were not available. Today these advances show great promise for transforming our national approach to nuclear reactor design. Other industries are capitalizing on rapid innovations in materials, manufacturing, sensors and control systems, and high-fidelity modeling and simulation (M&S), along with data analytics to provide lower costs in manufacturing and extended ranges of operations. In the nuclear industry, these innovations can translate into similar benefits as well as rapid design and qualification of advanced nuclear fuels. Effectively implementing these types of innovations could position American expert leadership to compete more fully in the international nuclear energy market. In July of 2018, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy sponsored a workshop to address these possibilities: “Technologies to Reactors: Enabling Accelerated Deployment of Nuclear Energy Systems.” Workshop participants explored how modern and emerging S&T can be used to transform the approach to nuclear reactor design, licensing, and operation to accelerate deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems. More than 80 experts from federal agencies, academia, and industry participated in the workshop to develop consensus on priority technology directions (PTDs) and recommend technology and deployment initiatives to explore and demonstrate key benefits for the nuclear community.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MAGNETO-FRICTIONAL MODELING OF CORONAL NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELDS. I. TESTING WITH ANALYTIC SOLUTIONS

We report our implementation of the magneto-frictional method in the Message Passing Interface Adaptive Mesh Refinement Versatile Advection Code (MPI-AMRVAC). The method aims at applications where local adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is essential to make follow-up dynamical modeling affordable. We quantify its performance in both domain-decomposed uniform grids and block-adaptive AMR computations, using all frequently employed force-free, divergence-free, and other vector comparison metrics. As test cases, we revisit the semi-analytic solution of Low and Lou in both Cartesian and spherical geometries, along with the topologically challenging Titov–Démoulin model. We compare different combinations of spatial and temporal discretizations, and find that the fourth-order central difference with a local Lax–Friedrichs dissipation term in a single-step marching scheme is an optimal combination. The initial condition is provided by the potential field, which is the potential field source surface model in spherical geometry. Various boundary conditions are adopted, ranging from fully prescribed cases where all boundaries are assigned with the semi-analytic models, to solar-like cases where only the magnetic field at the bottom is known. Our results demonstrate that all the metrics compare favorably to previous works in both Cartesian and spherical coordinates. Cases with several AMR levels perform in accordance with their effective resolutions. The magneto-frictional method in MPI-AMRVAC allows us to model a region of interest with high spatial resolution and large field of view simultaneously, as required by observation-constrained extrapolations using vector data provided with modern instruments. The applications of the magneto-frictional method to observations are shown in an accompanying paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Regional Climate and Variability of the Summertime Continental United States in Reanalyses

Understanding climate variability at regional scales is an important for research and societal needs. Atmospheric retrospective-analyses (or reanalyses) integrate multitudes of observing systems with numerical models to produce continuous data that include variables not easily observed, if at all. The breadth of variables as well as observational influence included in reanalyses make them ideal for investigating climate variability. In this paper, we assess NASA s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) regional variability in North America, specifically the United States, in conjunction with current satellite data reanalyses. Emphasis is placed on summertime precipitation because 1) it is a difficult parameter to capture in the most difficult season, 2) significant observational resources exist to benchmark comparisons, and 3) accurate assessment of precipitation variability is crucial to a multitude of sectors and applications. Likewise, we have also begun to evaluate surface air temperature. While precipitation biases are identified, year to year variability of the precipitation variations, in many cases, are quite reasonable. However, some spurious long term trends and sudden shifts in the time series are also identified. In surface air temperature, analysis of station observations provides ERA Interim a clear overall advantage. However, in a number of regions, all the reanalyses are quite comparable in variability and trend. In other regions, significant precipitation biases may occur, which has implications for the ancillary process data in a reanalysis, such as surface fluxes. We also characterize the reanalyses ability to capture variability related to ENSO. In general, the summertime variations of precipitation in the reanalyses are more highly correlated (positively) to ENSO (using ENSO34) than are the observations. The Northwestern US shows the largest positive correlations to ENSO34, and reanalyses agree with that, and correlate highly with the gauge observations there. Additional evaluation of the data assimilation using the MERRA Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data, which consists of the assimilated observations as well as forecast an analysis error fields. This work represents an initial evaluation of using the MERRA reanalysis to study regional climate variations of the United States, and identifying its applied limitations

Bosilovich, M G.↗

Review of Design Elements within Power Infrastructure Cyber–Physical Test Beds as Threat Analysis Environments

Cyber–physical systems (CPSs) are an integral part of modern society; thus, enhancing these systems’ reliability and resilience is paramount. Cyber–physical testbeds (CPTs) are a safe way to test and explore the interplay between the cyber and physical domains and to cost-effectively enhance the reliability and resilience of CPSs. Here a review of CPT elements, broken down into physical components (simulators, emulators, and physical hardware), soft components (communication protocols, network timing protocols), and user interfaces (visualization-dashboard design considerations) is presented. Various methods used to validate CPS performance are reviewed and evaluated for potential applications in CPT performance validation. Last, initial simulated results for a CPT design, based on the IEEE 33 bus system, are presented, along with a brief discussion on how model-based testing and fault–injection-based testing (using scaling and ramp-type attacks) may be used to help validate CPT performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Considerations for Fire Service Response to Residential Battery Energy Storage System Incidents

Renewable energy sources (e.g., rooftop photovoltaics, wind turbines) are capable of addressing our grid-level energy challenges by reducing environmental impacts, increasing resiliency, and increasing the supply of input energy. However, renewable energy sources alone are not a complete solution. The generation of power from major renewable energy sources fluctuates with the weather, creating significant challenges in matching electrical power generation to electrical power consumption. The value of renewable power generation sources is multiplied when paired with battery energy storage systems (ESS), which can store excess power generated from renewable energy sources when it is not consumed and deliver that power later when demand exceeds base power generation. Residential ESS units are frequently installed to support renewable energy initiatives by storing energy from intermittent sources such as photovoltaic panels. Residential ESS units also offer an alternative to gas-powered generators or other backup power means. Lithium-ion batteries are the most common residential ESS technology due to their affordability and energy density. Though lithium-ion systems come with benefits, there is also a risk of thermal runaway within this technology which can result in flammable gas release, fire, and explosion. As the installations of these products increase, the frequency of response to fire incidents involving these products will increase. In response to this new and evolving hazard, UL Solutions (ULS) and UL Fire Safety Research Institute (FSRI) have partnered with the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) to conduct a series of large-scale tests sponsored by the US Department of Energy to characterize the challenges for fire fighters responding to fires involving residential energy storage systems. The project focuses on developing size-up and tactical considerations to support the fire service in navigating the evolving modern fireground.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Viability of Trajectory Analysis for Diagnosing Dynamical and Chemical Influences on Ozone Concentrations in the UTLS

The viability of trajectory analysis for diagnosing the interplay between chemistry and dynamics is investigated by comparing ozone mixing ratios modelled using air-parcel pathways to values observed along flight tracks during ATTREX (Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment). Trajectories are initiated at the locations of ozone observations and tracked backward in time to their sources at termini of backward trajectories. The modelled values of ozone utilize 3-dimensional analysis fields from WACCM (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) (a chemical-climate model with dynamical fields nudged towards MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research Applications) reanalysis) and ERA-interim (product of ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) to determine source mixing ratios with chemical production and loss terms derived from the ozone chemistry used in WACCM. A statistical base of modelled ozone is constructed with 6 trajectory platforms (adiabatic, diabatic, and kinematic forced by ERA-interim and MERRA), two chemical models (WACCM chemistry and no chemistry), and 4 trajectory lengths (5, 10, 20, and 30 days). Linear regression is employed to separate systematic errors from random errors and to characterize the impact of source mixing ratios, path length, vertical motion, and chemistry on modelled ozone errors. Errors in the analysis ozone fields are large, if not dominant, contributors to model error. Random errors are particularly large for point-by-point comparisons, however averaging over 800 km (75 minutes) flight segments substantially reduces random error and exposes systematic errors. Of the two analysis ozone data sets, WACCM, which incorporates detailed chemistry, provides the smaller systematic errors while ERA-interim, which has crude chemistry but assimilates observational data, has the smaller random errors. Of the different trajectory platforms, adiabatic calculations produce the smaller random errors (irrespective of the use of chemistry) but both vertical motion and chemistry are required to optimally reduce systematic errors. These results suggest that meaningful analysis of dynamical and chemical interactions that control ozone mixing ratios are viable on spatial scales larger than a few reanalysis grid spaces, that errors in the analyzed ozone data sets are large but not prohibitively so, and that vertical velocities and heating rates from reanalysis data, while problematic, contain useful information [on the ozone concentrations in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere)].

ozone↗

Grid-Connected Modular Soft-Switching Solid State Transformers (M-S4T)

The objective of this project is to develop and verify the concept of a flexible and modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) for direct grid-connected applications. The ability to directly connect power electronics converters to the medium voltage grid (4 kV – 13 kV), and to potentially replace the passive and bulky, but ubiquitous 60 hertz service transformer in the 25 kVA to 100 kVA range, with a more flexible and controllable device, has been regarded as the ‘holy grail’ in grid control. However, this has proven to be extremely difficult. This project has developed the solutions to several key challenges of the direct grid-connected power electronics and realized a 7.2 kV M-S4T prototype. First, a protection method to protect the M-S4T from the high voltages (110 kV for the 13 kV system) that occur on the grid due to transients and lightning strikes have been developed and experimentally verified. Second, the realization and the operation of the M-S4T based on high-voltage SiC devices (>3.3 kV) and a medium-frequency medium-voltage low-leakage transformer in a single-stage solid-state transformer with zero-voltage switching, low dv/dt, and low electromagnetic interference has been successfully demonstrated up to 7.5 kV peak. Third, an oil-cooling system and stable communication and distributed control system for converter module voltage sharing have been developed and experimentally verified. The developed M-S4T has realized a modular universal high-performance power conversion system. This conversion system is scalable to different voltage and power levels and adaptable to four-quadrant bidirectional operation. Moreover, the use of passive cooling techniques meets the equipment life requirements, and the lightning protection scheme fulfills the basic insulation level specifications for direct grid connection. Such power conversion system opens up near-term opportunities, including energy storage, solar PV, or electric vehicle charging with significant cost and footprint savings. In the longer term, the possibility of replacing the utility distribution transformer with an M-S4T will be transformative for future distribution grids with a compact footprint and full controllability to enable high renewable energy and storage penetration. In addition to the main project, this report expands on the Plus-Up projected including as part of the main award. This project developed and demonstrated the technology for autonomous collaborative inverters that can be connected in an ad hoc manner to the grid. The aim of the project was to: (1) evaluate the existing techniques for grid-connected inverters and find their limitations; (2) develop detailed requirements for grid-connected inverters in the modern grid with millions of active nodes; (3) design a unified control strategy that brings more autonomy and intelligence to grid-connected inverters, and addresses parts of the issues with the existing techniques. The proposed technique, called UniCon, enables inverters to 1) connect/disconnect to/from the grid in an ad hoc manner; (2) work based on local sensing. Slow communication could be used for a more optimized behavior; (3) work automatically in both grid-forming/grid-following mode; (4) handle large disturbances, e.g., big load step and fault, in an oscillation-free manner; (5) work collaboratively with other inverters in steady-state and during transients. UniCon can be implemented in the middle-level control; hence it is agnostic to the vendor and to the implementation of the inner voltage/current and protection loops. Furthermore, a new synchronization scheme, based on deep learning, was developed that can extract the grid voltage phase and amplitude in a stable manner. The method is cheap to implement can improve the dynamic performance of the grid-connected inverters during fast transients, e.g., fault. The proposed control scheme was validated by (1) MATLAB/Simulink; (2) hardware-in-the-loop results, and; (3) experimental results using three inverters that form a microgrid in a down-scaled feeder. Lastly, both the M-S4T and UniCon have achieved promising tangible paths to markets. In the case of the M-S4T, the underlying technology — the Soft Switching Solid State Transformer (S4T) developed at the Georgia Tech Center for Distributed Energy (GT-CDE) has been licensed by GridBlock from the Georgia Tech Research Corporation, and GridBlock has been working with manufacturing partner Jabil (one of the largest US-based contract manufacturers) and system integrator Power Secure (largest deployer of microgrids in the US with 4.7 GW under management), to meet the strong initial demand. Similarly, GridBlock has an exclusive license to the UniCon technology, developed under this award by GT-CDE. The UniCon provides an intermediate control layer that enables the implementation of the higher-level ‘transactive’ control commands for the system. The architecture of the system - slow communications with the cloud for system optimization and setpoints, and the use of locally measured quantities for real-time control, provide a very robust and secure way of implementing a real-time must-run grid that is also secure and stable. This is a brand-new functionality that is critical for the future grid and key to GridBlock’s business model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

VOLTTRON™: Tech-to-Market Best-Practices Guide for Small- and Medium-Sized Commercial Buildings

VOLTTRON™ is an open-source distributed control and sensing platform developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy. It was developed to be used by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to support transactive controls research and deployment activities. VOLTTRON is designed to be an overarching integration platform that could be used to bring together vendors, users, and developers and enable rapid application development and testing. The platform is designed to support modern control strategies, including the use of agent- and transaction-based controls. It also is designed to support the management of a wide range of applications, including heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems; electric vehicles; and distributed-energy and whole-building loads. This report was completed as part of the Building Technologies Office’s Technology-to-Market Initiative for VOLTTRON’s Market Validation and Business Case Development efforts. The report provides technology-to-market guidance and best practices related to VOLTTRON platform deployments and commercialization activities for use by entities serving small- and medium-sized commercial buildings. The report characterizes the platform ecosystem within the small- and medium-sized commercial building market and articulates the value proposition of VOLTTRON for three core participants in this ecosystem: 1) platform owners/adopters, 2) app developers, and 3) end-users. The report also identifies key market drivers and opportunities for open platform deployments in the small- and medium-sized commercial building market. Possible pathways to the market are described—laboratory testing to market adoption to commercialization. We also identify and address various technical and market barriers that could hinder deployment of VOLTTRON. Finally, we provide “best practice” tech-to-market guidance for building energy-related deployment efforts serving small- and medium-sized commercial buildings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of a Hybrid RANS/LES Method for Turbulent Mixing Layers

Significant research has been underway for several years in NASA Glenn Research Center's nozzle branch to develop advanced computational methods for simulating turbulent flows in exhaust nozzles. The primary efforts of this research have concentrated on improving our ability to calculate the turbulent mixing layers that dominate flows both in the exhaust systems of modern-day aircraft and in those of hypersonic vehicles under development. As part of these efforts, a hybrid numerical method was recently developed to simulate such turbulent mixing layers. The method developed here is intended for configurations in which a dominant structural feature provides an unsteady mechanism to drive the turbulent development in the mixing layer. Interest in Large Eddy Simulation (LES) methods have increased in recent years, but applying an LES method to calculate the wide range of turbulent scales from small eddies in the wall-bounded regions to large eddies in the mixing region is not yet possible with current computers. As a result, the hybrid method developed here uses a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) procedure to calculate wall-bounded regions entering a mixing section and uses a LES procedure to calculate the mixing-dominated regions. A numerical technique was developed to enable the use of the hybrid RANS-LES method on stretched, non-Cartesian grids. With this technique, closure for the RANS equations is obtained by using the Cebeci-Smith algebraic turbulence model in conjunction with the wall-function approach of Ota and Goldberg. The LES equations are closed using the Smagorinsky subgrid scale model. Although the function of the Cebeci-Smith model to replace all of the turbulent stresses is quite different from that of the Smagorinsky subgrid model, which only replaces the small subgrid turbulent stresses, both are eddy viscosity models and both are derived at least in part from mixing-length theory. The similar formulation of these two models enables the RANS and LES equations to be solved with a single solution scheme and computational grid. The hybrid RANS-LES method has been applied to a benchmark compressible mixing layer experiment in which two isolated supersonic streams, separated by a splitter plate, provide the flows to a constant-area mixing section. Although the configuration is largely two dimensional in nature, three-dimensional calculations were found to be necessary to enable disturbances to develop in three spatial directions and to transition to turbulence. The flow in the initial part of the mixing section consists of a periodic vortex shedding downstream of the splitter plate trailing edge. This organized vortex shedding then rapidly transitions to a turbulent structure, which is very similar to the flow development observed in the experiments. Although the qualitative nature of the large-scale turbulent development in the entire mixing section is captured well by the LES part of the current hybrid method, further efforts are planned to directly calculate a greater portion of the turbulence spectrum and to limit the subgrid scale modeling to only the very small scales. This will be accomplished by the use of higher accuracy solution schemes and more powerful computers, measured both in speed and memory capabilities.

Georgiadis, Nicholas J.↗

SCUC-DER Integration Report: Integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Using Advanced Unit Commitment Models and DER Aggregation Methodologies

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are continuing to grow due to regulatory, policy, and market shifts, and it needs to be ensured that small DERs are given a level playing field with traditional resources. Legacy market processes such as unit-commitment problems were designed for a power grid consisting largely of centralized power plants. In contrast, DERs consist of many small devices with distinct operating characteristics that may or may not be connected at the transmission interconnection points, limiting their visibility to the independent system operators (ISOs) who operate wholesale electricity markets. This report details the development and initial results from a simulation platform that integrates state-of-the-art security-constrained unit commitment software, detailed feeder models, and a DER aggregator model to quantify potential DER integration issues. Quantitative results to date illustrate potential infeasible scheduling solutions from SCUC when the DERA includes aggregations of energy-limited energy storage resources. Likewise, if aggregations are not penalized for dispatch deviations, they may have incentives to deviate from the SCUC-determined resource schedules. Assumptions about the amount of aggregated demand response resources (DRRs) and the ability of DERAs to follow profit incentives have an important impact – DRRs have significant flexibility and can typically feasibly meet their SCUC schedule, but on the other hand, their profit incentives can cause unscheduled increases in load before and after DRR dispatch. Computation time results on the SCUC solver and simulation platform only show a modest increase in SCUC solution time as the number of DERAs is increased, but results to date only reflect the RTS-GMLC test system; results may show more significant solver slowdown in larger transmission systems. The largest contribution to simulation time is attributed to the DERA offer generation method, which is suggested for future improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗