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DOE OSTI2024

Project PARETO—DOE’s Produced Water Optimization Initiative

The Texas Produced Water Consortium invited Project PARETO to contribute a write-up about the project to an update report they are preparing for the Texas legislature. The article we have prepared presents a high-level overview of the PARETO produced water management framework, and includes sections dedicated to going into more detail about PARETO’s strategic model and water sharing portals (AquaShare and AquaTrade).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2003

Student Outreach With Renewable Energy Technology

The Student Outreach with Renewable Energy Technology (SORET) program is a joint grant that involves a collaboration between three HBCU's (Central State University, Savannah State University, and Wilberforce University) and NASA John H. Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. The overall goal of the grant is to increase the interest of minority students in the technical disciplines, to encourage participating minority students to continue their undergraduate study in these disciplines, and to promote graduate school to these students. As a part of SORET, Central State University has developed an undergraduate research associates program over the past two years. As part of this program, students are required to take special laboratory courses offered at Wilberforce University that involve the application of renewable energy systems. The course requires the students to design, construct, and install a renewable energy project. In addition to the applied renewable energy course, Central State University provided four undergraduate research associates the opportunity to participate in summer internships at Texas Southern University (Renewable Energy Environmental Protection Program) and the Cleveland African-American Museum (Renewable Energy Summer Camp for High School Students) an activity co sponsored by NASA and the Cleveland African-American Museum. Savannah State University held a high school summer program with a theme of the Direct Impact of Science on Our Every Day Lives. The purpose of the institute was to whet the interest of students in science, mathematics, engineering, and technology (SMET) by demonstrating the effectiveness of science to address real world problems. The 2001 institute involved the design and installation of a PV water pumping system at the Center for Advanced Water Technology and Energy Systems at Savannah State. Both high school students and undergraduates contributed to this project. Wilberforce University has used NASA support to provide resources for an Applied Renewable Energy Laboratory offered to both Central State and Wilberforce students. In addition, research endeavors for high school and undergraduates were funded during the summer. The research involved attempts to layer photovoltaic materials on a conducting polymer (polypyrrole) substrate. Two undergraduate students who were interested in polymer research originated this concept. Finally, the university was able to purchase a meteorological station to assist in the analysis of the solar/wind hybrid power system operating at the university.

Clark, Eric B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy and AI: Evaluating Future Grid and Water Stress Due to Data Centers

Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This presentation highlights the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI.

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗
NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Restoration Hydro: A Watershed Approach to Standard Modular New Hydropower

The objectives of FOA DE- FOA-0001836- “Standard Modular Hydropower” included designing a standardized, modular, and environmentally compatible hydropower schematic for implementation in greenfield sites that generate up to 10 MW of capacity. Utilizing funds competitively awarded under DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office, the Natel Energy team developed a concept for modular new stream reach (NSR) hydropower that incorporates multi species upstream and downstream fish passage, improved river channel connectivity, and recreational modules. The in-stream design of the collective modules minimized site specific design and maximized the opportunities for modularity. Financial data was also presented using actual costs from regional suppliers, with figures provided in 2022 dollars. While the project team did not address potential permitting process improvements, the site selection criteria did consider established barriers to hydropower development such as tribal and preserved lands, interconnection proximity, and endangered species to exclude or deprioritize. The project’s design schematic met the objectives of the FOA, and presented a unique solution that targets alluvial pockets as natural features for sustainable development. Natel’s concept also incorporated the company's fish-safe Restoration Hydro Turbine for safe downstream passage, while featuring a rock arch that integrates fish passage, water, recreation, and grade control modules (including sediment). Alignment with the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) “Innovative Design Concepts for Standard Modular Hydropower and Pumped-Storage Hydropower” Program: According to the Hydropower Vision (DOE, 2016), approximately 16 GW of hydropower growth is possible with the development of technology solutions that balance efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability. The desired outcome of the SMH program is transformational innovation specifically in the site identification, conceptual, and detailed design phases of technology development lifecycles (DOE, 2018). In developing the SMH design schematic, the team aimed to address the opportunities outlined in the Vision through an inverted design philosophy; rather than singularly prioritizing efficiency and power production, the team focused on integrating hydropower with restoration of degraded streams to optimal ecosystem function and provision of exceptional recreation value as design criteria. To achieve this, Restoration Hydro incorporates the principles of nature-based engineering (WWAP, 2018) and biomimicry (Biomimicry NL.) to strategically deploy complementary combinations of permanent, semi-permanent, and ephemeral low-head structures - such as natural and engineered log jams - that harness geomorphological and hydrological processes at the landscape-scale. Primary applications of Restoration Hydro include: 1) restoration of degraded watersheds’ natural ecological function and enhancement of hydrological connectivity; and 2) creation of associated co-benefits to hydro production, including increased groundwater recharge, improved sediment transport and management, improved water security and water quality. Restoration Hydro projects build upon proven watershed restoration engineering techniques by integrating hydropower turbines into low-head structures using innovative and evolving civil works concepts that facilitate fish and sediment passage, and in some cases create additional revenue-generating recreational opportunities. Powering low-head structures creates a directly monetizable layer of economic value in the form of flexible, reliable, renewable energy on top of the already high-value water, environmental and recreational benefits of watershed and river restoration. The approach aims to create a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle whereby Restoration Hydro projects support the scaling of ecosystem restoration activities, creating a water-energy-carbon multiplier effect that, through the principles of adaptive change management: 1) improves the resilience of landscapes and downstream population centers for changing hydrological cycles; 2) creates a reliable energy resource that facilitates the integration of intermittent renewable power sources into grids; and 3) supports climate change mitigation through grid decarbonization and enhanced ecosystem carbon capture and retention.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2020

Rocky Mountain Disasters - Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in the Colorado Front Range

Forest composition and structure in the Colorado Front Range has been altered by changing wildfire regimes. In particular, increased moderate- and high-severity fire significantly reduces forest cover following fire and often results in reduced seedling regeneration. Reduced tree canopy regrowth has chronic effects on upland ecological function and downstream water quality. This project partnered with the US Forest Service to estimate long-term vegetation recovery following four Colorado Front Range fires between 1996 and 2002—the Bobcat, Buffalo Creek, Hayman, and High Meadows fires—using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM),Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). The random forest algorithm was applied to produce maps of percent forest canopy cover for coniferous trees, deciduous trees, and all trees using time-series variables for pre- and post-fire as inputs. Similarly, maps of post-fire seedling regeneration were produced using random forest for coniferous trees,deciduous trees, and all trees using ecological drivers (soil, climate, fire, and topography) and pre-fire remote sensing predictors. Relationships between ecological drivers of post-fire vegetation trajectories were also evaluated. Additional analyses were conducted to (1) assess whether seedlings could be detected by Landsat or synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series analysis (2) assess pre-fire and post-fire Landsat variables against pre-fire and post-fire tree cover estimates to evaluate whether magnitude of forest change can be detected. Understanding variables that influence vegetative recovery, vegetation type conversion, and watershed characteristics will aid forest restoration efforts and water quality management.

Eric Jensen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗
NASA NTRS2014

Next Generation Life Support Project Status

Next Generation Life Support (NGLS) is one of over twenty technology development projects sponsored by NASA's Game Changing Development Program. The NGLS Project develops selected life support technologies needed for humans to live and work productively in space, with focus on technologies for future use in spacecraft cabin and space suit applications. Over the last three years, NGLS had five main project elements: Variable Oxygen Regulator (VOR), Rapid Cycle Amine (RCA) swing bed, High Performance (HP) Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Glove, Alternative Water Processor (AWP) and Series-Bosch Carbon Dioxide Reduction. The RCA swing bed, VOR and HP EVA Glove tasks are directed at key technology needs for the Portable Life Support System (PLSS) and pressure garment for an Advanced Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). Focus is on prototyping and integrated testing in cooperation with the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Advanced EVA Project. The HP EVA Glove Element, new this fiscal year, includes the generation of requirements and standards to guide development and evaluation of new glove designs. The AWP and Bosch efforts focus on regenerative technologies to further close spacecraft cabin atmosphere revitalization and water recovery loops and to meet technology maturation milestones defined in NASA's Space Technology Roadmaps. These activities are aimed at increasing affordability, reliability, and vehicle self-sufficiency while decreasing mass and mission cost, supporting a capability-driven architecture for extending human presence beyond low-Earth orbit, along a human path toward Mars. This paper provides a status of current technology development activities with a brief overview of future plans.

Barta, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Mid-Latitude Freshwater Availability Reduced by Projected Vegetation Responses to Climate Change

Plants are expected to generate more global-scale runoff under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through their influence on surface resistance to evapotranspiration. Recent studies using Earth System Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ostensibly reaffirm this result, further suggesting that plants will ameliorate the dire reductions in water availability projected by other studies that use aridity metrics. Here we complicate this narrative by analysing the change in precipitation partitioning to plants, runoff and storage in multiple Earth system models under both high carbon dioxide concentrations and warming. We show that projected plant responses directly reduce future runoff across vast swaths of North America, Europe and Asia because bulk canopy water demands increase with additional vegetation growth and longer and warmer growing seasons. These runoff declines occur despite increased surface resistance to evapotranspiration and vegetation total water use efficiency, even in regions with increasing or unchanging precipitation. We demonstrate that constraining the large uncertainty in the multimodel ensemble with regional-scale observations of evapotranspiration partitioning strengthens these results. We conclude that terrestrial vegetation plays a large and unresolved role in shaping future regional freshwater availability, one that will not ubiquitously ameliorate future warming-driven surface drying.

Mankin, Justin S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2024

Science Area 1: Standard Award: Model-Data Fusion to Examine Multiscale Dynamical Controls on Snow Cover and Critical Zone Moisture Inputs (Final Report)

In many mountain watersheds of the world, seasonal snowpacks play an important role as natural reservoirs of water. Seasonal snowpacks accumulate water during cold, wet winter months that subsequently melts. Downstream communities depend on water from melting seasonal snowpacks to support agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs. Rapidly melting snowpacks can also present a flooding hazard, particularly if snowpacks melt at rates faster than anticipated and where adequate reservoir capacity is unavailable to buffer river flows associated with melt. The spatial and temporal dynamics of snow accumulation and melt also play an important role in supporting upland ecosystems in mountain landscapes. Snowmelt provides soil moisture that enable terrestrial ecosystem productivity and exert control on soil microorganisms that play important roles in global carbon cycles. Climate warming is gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation in mountain watersheds arriving as snow, presenting potentially profound disruptions to mountain ecosystems, as well as downstream delivery of water. The overarching goal of this project was to understand how interactions between the near-surface atmosphere and surface topography control the input, accumulation, retention, and release of water from mountain snowpacks. Over a 5-year period, this project pursued an approach combining high-resolution regional climate modeling, satellite and airborne remote sensing data, and ground-based observations to develop and analyze benchmark datasets to address overarching science questions and hypotheses. Key products include a continuous, long-term, high spatiotemporal resolution (1 km/1 hr) dataset characterizing key climate variables in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The dataset included historical estimates of precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar and longwave radiation, and wind speeds. Additionally, the project developed a 20+ year long, 30 m spatial, daily temporal multi-sensor dataset characterizing snow presence/absence in the East/Taylor River watersheds in the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado. The project supported training of 1 postdoctoral scholar, 1 Ph.D. student, and 1 M.S. student.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Architecture and Functionality of the Advanced Life Support On-Line Project Information System (OPIS)

An ongoing effort is underway at NASA Amcs Research Center (ARC) tu develop an On-line Project Information System (OPIS) for the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program. The objective of this three-year project is to develop, test, revise and deploy OPIS to enhance the quality of decision-making metrics and attainment of Program goals through improved knowledge sharing. OPIS will centrally locate detailed project information solicited from investigators on an annual basis and make it readily accessible by the ALS Community via a web-accessible interface. The data will be stored in an object-oriented relational database (created in MySQL(Trademark) located on a secure server at NASA ARC. OPE will simultaneously serve several functions, including being an R&TD status information hub that can potentially serve as the primary annual reporting mechanism. Using OPIS, ALS managers and element leads will be able to carry out informed research and technology development investment decisions, and allow analysts to perform accurate systems evaluations. Additionally, the range and specificity of information solicited will serve to educate technology developers of programmatic needs. OPIS will collect comprehensive information from all ALS projects as well as highly detailed information specific to technology development in each ALS area (Waste, Water, Air, Biomass, Food, Thermal, and Control). Because the scope of needed information can vary dramatically between areas, element-specific technology information is being compiled with the aid of multiple specialized working groups. This paper presents the current development status in terms of the architecture and functionality of OPIS. Possible implementation approaches for OPIS are also discussed.

Hogan, John A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Architecture and Functionality of the Advanced Life Support On-Line Project Information System

An ongoing effort is underway at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) to develop an On-line Project Information System (OPIS) for the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program. The objective of this three-year project is to develop, test, revise and deploy OPIS to enhance the quality of decision-making metrics and attainment of Program goals through improved knowledge sharing. OPIS will centrally locate detailed project information solicited from investigators on an annual basis and make it readily accessible by the ALS Community via a Web-accessible interface. The data will be stored in an object-oriented relational database (created in MySQL) located on a secure server at NASA ARC. OPE will simultaneously serve several functions, including being an research and technology development (R&TD) status information hub that can potentially serve as the primary annual reporting mechanism for ALS-funded projects. Using OPIS, ALS managers and element leads will be able to carry out informed R&TD investment decisions, and allow analysts to perform accurate systems evaluations. Additionally, the range and specificity of information solicited will serve to educate technology developers of programmatic needs. OPIS will collect comprehensive information from all ALS projects as well as highly detailed information specific to technology development in each ALS area (Waste, Water, Air, Biomass, Food, Thermal, Controls and Systems Analysis). Because the scope of needed information can vary dramatically between areas, element-specific technology information is being compiled with the aid of multiple specialized working groups. This paper presents the current development status in terms of the architecture and functionality of OPIS. Possible implementation approaches for OPIS are also discussed.

Hogan, John A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrospinner Upgrades for Nanofiber Production

Electrospinning is an inexpensive and flexible method for producing nanofibers. Nanofibers are highly adaptable with potential applications in accelerator target systems, air and water filtration, and biomedicine. This project aims to upgrade and test an existing roll-to-roll electrospinner that is more economical for industrial nanofiber production. Varying the diameter of nanofiber can change its functional properties. The current unit cannot adjust spinneret-collector separation, which determines nanofiber diameter. The electro-spinneret channel also does not have lateral adjustment capabilities for precise alignment. Lastly, the viscosities of our polymer solutions have not been quantified. Solution injection into the channel is presently inconsistent because of imperfect nozzle sizing, resulting in waste and decreased efficiency. Modeling was done with Siemens NX CAD software, and viscosity was measured using a Brookfield DVE-LV viscometer. A dual scissor lift design for channel displacement, powered by a dual-shaft DC motor coupled to precision lead screws, was approved and construction was started. Preliminary channel modifications also were initiated. Going forward, the scissor lift system will be integrated and evaluated with our electrospinner, along with further channel modifications. Viscosity measurements of polyvinyldimethylformamide (PVDF) were recorded with inconsistent results due to inadequate testing conditions. Future viscosity trials must be completed in accordance with testing requirements. The optimization and commercialization of roll-to-roll electrospinner units can make nanofiber production more feasible for many new industries and consumer products.

Black, Niko↗
NASA NTRS2018

International Life Sciences Research Announcement 'Pick and Eat' Project Contributions

The International Life Sciences Research Announcement (ILSRA) is a grant which focuses on 'Pick and Eat' salad-crop productivity, nutritional value, and acceptability to supplement the International Space Station (ISS) food system. My contributions into this project were to 1) manage the Veggie chambers to maintain optimal plant growth and attend to any plant needs, 2) analyze data for the VEG-04 Science Verification Test to create a water delivery schedule for the astronauts aboard the ISS, and 3) assume the role as a VEG-04 Experiment Verification Test (EVT) 'pseudonaut' to confirm that all schedules and flight procedures produce quality results. The VEG-04 EVT will continue up until the last day of my internship. Additionally, I'm currently working on two independent research projects, both of which provide insight to potential plant growth hardware options for lunar or Martian surfaces. One of which is a cable culture hydroponics system (favorable in areas with highly limited space), and the other are two aeroponic systems (a subset of hydroponics which uses no media and misting as its delivery for water and nutrients). All independent projects are still being tested and therefore results are not yet established. Lastly, I have been in charge of maintaining the AeroGarden (Registered Trademark), a hydroponic-aeroponic hybrid system which is currently being investigated as a concept to the potential for minimizing human involvement in the process of growing plants. This has the potential to play a major role in future technological project designs for spaceflight hardware. This system is an ongoing project that will continue once my internship ends.

Moore, Jessica↗
NASA NTRS1997

Biogeochemistry of DMS in Surface Waters

Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is important in influencing the formation of aerosols in the troposphere over large areas of the world's oceans. Understanding the dynamics of aerosols is important to understanding the earth's radiation balance. In evaluating the factors controlling DMS in the troposphere it is vital to understand the dynamics of DMS in the surface ocean. The biogeochemical processes controlling DMS concentration in seawater are myriad; modeling and theoretical estimation are problematic. At the beginning of this project we believed that we were on the verge of simplifying the ship-track measurement of DMS, and we proposed to deploy such a system to develop a database relating high frequency DMS measurements to biological and physicochemical and optical properties of surface water that can be quantified by remote sensing techniques. We designed a system to measure DMS concomitantly with other basic chemical and biological data in a flow-through system. The project was collaborative between Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR). The project on which we are reporting was budgeted for only one year with a one year no-cost extension. At WHOI our effort was directed towards designing traps which would be used to concentrate DMS from seawater and allow storage for subsequent analysis. At that time, GC systems were too large for easy long-term deployment on a research vessel like R/V Weatherbird, so we focused on simplifying the shipboard sampling procedure. Initial studies of sample recovery with high levels of DMS suggested that Carboxen 1000, a relatively new carbon molecular sieve, could be used as a stable storage medium. The affinity of Carboxen for DMS is several orders of magnitude higher than gold wool (another adsorbent used for DMS collection) on a weight or volume basis. Furthermore, Carboxen's affinity for DMS is also far less susceptible to humidity than gold wool. Unfortunately, further experiments with low level DMS indicated that recovery of DMS after storage was not quantitative. The material has proven to be completely acceptable for short term storage and has been incorporated into a micro-GC system. Since working on this project, we have collaborated with RVM Scientific in Santa Barbara in the design and construction of small portable micro-GC's that will make feasible at-sea measurement in moving ships, making rapid gas analysis and quantification feasible in a ship-track mode. Throughout this period at both WHOI and BBSR, we continued to analyze field data to understand that patterns of time and space variability in DMS and the processes that govern it. These insights will be crucial to determining the specifications for our automated sampling program. The data from this, the longest continuous sampling program for ocean DMS, provided insights into year to year and short-term variability.

Dacey, J. W. H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated carbon dioxide and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find carbon dioxide effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%-27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rain fed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated carbon dioxide could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modeling the effects of rising carbon dioxide across crop and hydrological modeling communities.

Deryng, Delphine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water level changes in Lake Erie drive 21st century CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from a coastal temperate wetland

Wetland water depth influences microbial and plant communities, which can alter the above- and below-ground carbon cycling of a wetland. Wetland water depths are likely to change due to shifting precipitation patterns, which will affect projections of greenhouse gas emissions; however, these effects are rarely incorporated into wetland greenhouse gas models. Seeking to address this gap, we used a mechanistic model, ecosys, to simulate a range of water depth scenarios in a temperate wetland, and analyzed simulated predictions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) andmethane (CH 4 ) fluxes over the 21st century. We tested our model using eddy covariance measurements of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes collected at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC) during 2015 and 2016. OWC is a lacustrine, estuarine, freshwater, mineral-soil marsh. An empirical model found that the wetland water depth is highly dependent on the water depth of the nearby Lake Erie. Future wetland surface water depths were modeled based on projection of Lake Erie's water depth using four separate NOAA projections, resulting in four wetland water-depth scenarios. Two of the four 21st century projections for Lake Erie water depths used in this study indicated that the water depth of the wetland would remain nearly steady; however, the other two indicated decreases in the wetland water depth. In our scenario where the wetland dries out, we project the wetland's climatological warming effect will decrease due to smaller CH 4 fluxes to the atmosphere and larger CO 2 uptake by the wetland. We also found that increased water level can lower emissions by shifting the site towards more open water areas, which have lower CH 4 emissions. We found that decreased water depths would cause more widespread colonization of the wetland by macrophyte vegetation. Using an empirical relationship, we also found that further drying could result in other, non-wetland vegetation to emerge, dramatically altering soil carbon cycling. In three of our four projections, we found that in general the magnitude of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes steadily increase over the next 100 years in response to higher temperatures. However, in our driest simulations, we projected a different response due to increased oxidation of soil carbon, with CH 4 emissions decreasing substantially from an annual cumulative peak of 224.6 to a minimum of 104.7 gC m –2 year –1 . In that same simulation, net cumulative flux of CO 2 changed from being a sink of 56.5 gC m –2 year –1 to a source of 369.6 gCm –2 year –1 over the same period, despite a temperature increase from 13.7 °C to 14.2 °C. This temperature shift in our other three cases with greater water depths increased the source strength of CH 4 and the sink strength of CO 2 . Here, we conclude that the magnitude of wetland greenhouse-gas fluxes depended on the water depth primarily as it affected the areal percentage of the wetland available for plant colonization, but dramatic decreases in water depths could cause significant reductions in the wetland CH 4 fluxes, while simultaneously altering the wetland vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗