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At least 109 records · Page 6

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Communications satellites in the national and global health care information infrastructure: their role, impact, and issues

Health care services delivered from a distance, known collectively as telemedicine, are being increasingly demonstrated on various transmission media. Telemedicine activities have included diagnosis by a doctor at a remote location, emergency and disaster medical assistance, medical education, and medical informatics. The ability of communications satellites to offer communication channels and bandwidth on demand, connectivity to mobile, remote and under served regions, and global access will afford them a critical role for telemedicine applications within the National and Global Information Infrastructure (NII/GII). The importance that communications satellites will have in telemedicine applications within the NII/GII the differences in requirements for NII vs. GII, the major issues such as interoperability, confidentiality, quality, availability, and costs, and preliminary conclusions for future usability based on the review of several recent trails at national and global levels are presented.

Zuzek, J. E.↗

Structural Health Monitoring and Impact Detection Using Neural Networks for Damage Characterization

Detection of damage due to foreign object impact is an important factor in the development of new aerospace vehicles. Acoustic waves generated on impact can be detected using a set of piezoelectric transducers, and the location of impact can be determined by triangulation based on the differences in the arrival time of the waves at each of the sensors. These sensors generate electrical signals in response to mechanical motion resulting from the impact as well as from natural vibrations. Due to electrical noise and mechanical vibration, accurately determining these time differentials can be challenging, and even small measurement inaccuracies can lead to significant errors in the computed damage location. Wavelet transforms are used to analyze the signals at multiple levels of detail, allowing the signals resulting from the impact to be isolated from ambient electromechanical noise. Data extracted from these transformed signals are input to an artificial neural network to aid in identifying the moment of impact from the transformed signals. By distinguishing which of the signal components are resultant from the impact and which are characteristic of noise and normal aerodynamic loads, the time differentials as well as the location of damage can be accurately assessed. The combination of wavelet transformations and neural network processing results in an efficient and accurate approach for passive in-flight detection of foreign object damage.

Ross, Richard W.↗

Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

Distributed Impact Detector System (DIDS) Health Monitoring System Evaluation

Damage due to impacts from micrometeoroids and orbital debris is one of the most significant on-orbit hazards for spacecraft. Impacts to thermal protection systems must be detected and the damage evaluated to determine if repairs are needed to allow safe re-entry. To address this issue for the International Space Station Program, Langley Research Center and Johnson Space Center technologists have been working to develop and implement advanced methods for detecting impacts and resultant leaks. LaRC funded a Small Business Innovative Research contract to Invocon, Inc. to develop special wireless sensor systems that are compact, light weight, and have long battery lifetimes to enable applications to long duration space structures. These sensor systems are known as distributed impact detection systems (DIDS). In an assessment, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center procured two prototype DIDS sensor units to evaluate their capabilities in laboratory testing and field testing in an ISS Node 1 structural test article. This document contains the findings of the assessment.

Prosser, William H.↗

IMPACT - Information for the Development of Human Health and Performance Systems

IMPACT is a suite of computational and systems engineering tools. Currently being developed for NASA Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) and could be extended to other Human Research Program (HRP) elements. The purpose is to provide a data-driven means to inform human health and performance risk mitigation during exploration missions considering resource constraints in the medical system. IMPACT enables systematic trade studies to evaluate options. IMPACT uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a systematic methodology to evaluate risks. IMPACT is currently under development to inform decision-makers the risks involved with trade-options that have likelihoods and consequences backed by scientific research in a medical evidence library. IMPACT supports multi-segment analysis to determine probabilities and risks in different mission segments. There are currently 122 medical conditions and 900 resources in the IMPACT Medical Database. IMPACT modeling is using mission segments and multiple vehicles for the NASA Artemis campaign and could support future complex missions in deep space.

IMPACT PRA↗

Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

Shindell, Drew↗

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗

Spaceflight Food System Impacts to Nutritional Adequacy, Health, Performance, and Resources in Space Exploration

Despite high physical standards and training protocols, physiological and behavioral decrements have been documented in astronauts on both short (1-2 weeks) and long (6+ month) missions in spaceflight, including dysregulation of the immune system, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal deconditioning, ophthalmic changes, weight loss, and increased stress and fatigue. Optimizing food and nutrition intakes are key underpinnings for the proper function and performance of all physiological systems and the resulting physical and behavioral health and performance outcomes of astronauts. Much has been learned about the role of nutrition in human health on Earth over the past hundred years, from the identity and role of specific vitamins to the importance of the quantities of some nutrients to immune function. The requirements for providing adequate nutrition to astronauts seem obvious. However, providing a safe, reliable, and nutritious food system for space exploration missions remains a challenge. In fact, food is one of the greatest resource and logistical challenges, which is part of why it remains a “red” risk for Mars missions.

Grace L Douglas↗

A Phobos-Deimos Mission as an Element of the NASA Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0

NASA has conducted a series of mission studies over the past 25 years examining the eventual exploration of the surface of Mars by humans. The latest version of this evolutionary series of design reference missions/architectures - Design Reference Architecture 5 or DRA-5 - was completed in 2007. This paper examines the implications of including a human mission to explore the moons of Mars and teleoperate robots in various locations, but not to land the human crews on Mars, as an element of this reference architecture. Such a mission has been proposed several times during this same 25 year evolution leading up to the completion of DRA-5 primarily as a mission of testing the in-space vehicles and operations while surface vehicles and landers are under development. But such a precursor or test mission has never been explicitly included as an element of this Architecture. This paper will first summarize the key features of the DRA-5 to provide context for the remainder of the assessment. This will include a description of the in-space vehicles that would be the subject of a shakedown test during the Mars orbital mission. A decision tree will be used to illustrate the factors that will be analyzed, and the sequence in which they will be addressed, for this assessment. The factors that will be analyzed include the type of interplanetary transfer orbit (opposition class versus conjunction class), the type of parking orbit (circular versus elliptical), and the type of propulsion technology (high thrust chemical versus nuclear thermal rocket). The manner in which each of these factors impacts an individual mission will be described. In addition to the direct impact of these factors, additional considerations impacting crew health and overall programmatic outcomes will be discussed. Numerical results for each of the factors in the decision tree will be grouped with derived qualitative impacts from crew health and programmatic consideration. These quantitative and qualitative results will be summarized in a pros/cons table as a summary for this analysis.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

Urban Expansion and Climate Change: Investigating the Impact of Future Scenarios on Child Health

Cities in the poorest countries of the world are rapidly urbanizing. In fact, some of the fastest growing cities on the planet are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people benefit from economic, educational, and health opportunities that exist in cities and, as a result, city-dwellers often face less risk of poverty and disease in the context of climate change than their rural-dwelling counterparts. However, rapid urbanization, resulting from a large and constant influx of migrants from rural areas, can put pressure on existing social, economic, and health systems. For poor cities, they face a challenge to support existing residents while also expanding to support the needs of migrants, many of whom are deeply impoverished. Additionally, in a climate change, linked to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other related events, can add stress to complex urban food, health, hygiene, and housing systems. In this project we investigate urban expansion, climate change, and health in four major African cities – Ouagadougou, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kigali. We consider different scenarios of urban expansion using historic and contemporary maps of urban extent, combined with climate (temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and land cover combined with spatially referenced health information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to investigate the relationships between urban dwelling, climate change and health. Temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed under different urban land use futures (expanding agricultural areas versus reducing agricultural areas) to examine the ways that individual health outcomes related to malnutrition vary under different potential future conditions. Preliminary results of the research highlight the importance of temperature for health, in particular, and suggest that while urban conditions related to urban infrastructure (e.g., educational attainment, electricity access, and improved hygiene) cannot reduce health risks to counter the impacts of high temperatures and reduced agricultural land. As cities in poor countries urbanize, city-dwellers face unique risks when droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events occur. In this project we explore urban land use conditions, climate conditions and health using future scenarios. Specifically we evaluate health outcomes in the future while considering different land use practices, urban expansion, temperature, and rainfall conditions to identify individual-level risk and protective factors. We compare results across four major cities in sub Saharan Africa.

Public Health↗

Space Environmental Effects on Cleanroom Microbes: A Pathfinder Study

Microbes have an extraordinary ability to adapt to their environment, but little is known about the effects of space irradiation on microbial survival and adaptation. Microbial responses are relevant to both Planetary Protection (PP), where microbes could contaminate planetary bodies and inhibit scientific investigation, and in crew wellbeing where microbes may develop unknown, dangerous resistance mechanisms that impact human health. This project aimed to determine survivability of a collection of isolates collected from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) cleanrooms. In this study, we developed a standard process for exposing dried microbes to various levels of proton irradiation, followed by evaluation of survival. Through multiple exposures at various intensities, we were able to narrow down a shortlist of cleanroom microbes deemed of highest threat to both PP and crew health. These findings could help to more clearly and accurately define risks associated with radiation impacts on microbes.

Planetary Protection↗