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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis for "Dilution Region" Events: Issues and Operational Approaches

An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing collision likelihood is the probability of collision, which is widely accepted among conjunction assessment practitioners; but it possesses a known deficiency in that it can produce a false sense of safety when the orbital position uncertainties for the conjuncting objects are high. The probability of collision is said to be “diluted” in such a situation and to understate the possible risk; certain approaches have been recommended by researchers to provide (largely conservative) risk estimates and remediation methodologies in these cases. The present analysis explores two of the main proposals for quantifying and remediating possible risk in the dilution region and quantifies their operational implications. These implications with regard to imputed additional workload are considerable, especially in anticipating the conjunction event levels expected with the deployment of the USAF Space Fence radar. This effort has been undertaken as part of a larger enterprise that seeks to clarify the philosophical and statistical underpinnings of the conjunction risk assessment process. The analysis presented herein argues that a form of hypothesis testing is implicitly used in conjunction assessment risk analysis, and that there are a number of conceptual and practical reasons for constructing the associated null hypothesis to counsel against a satellite conjunction remediation action. In short, it is concluded that, for the purposes of determining whether a conjunction remediation action should be pursued, dilution-region probabilities of collision should be treated no differently from those produced under other circumstances.

Probability of collision↗
DOE OSTI2012

A DATA-DRIVEN MODEL FOR SPECTRA: FINDING DOUBLE REDSHIFTS IN THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY

We present a data-driven method-heteroscedastic matrix factorization, a kind of probabilistic factor analysis-for modeling or performing dimensionality reduction on observed spectra or other high-dimensional data with known but non-uniform observational uncertainties. The method uses an iterative inverse-variance-weighted least-squares minimization procedure to generate a best set of basis functions. The method is similar to principal components analysis (PCA), but with the substantial advantage that it uses measurement uncertainties in a responsible way and accounts naturally for poorly measured and missing data; it models the variance in the noise-deconvolved data space. A regularization can be applied, in the form of a smoothness prior (inspired by Gaussian processes) or a non-negative constraint, without making the method prohibitively slow. Because the method optimizes a justified scalar (related to the likelihood), the basis provides a better fit to the data in a probabilistic sense than any PCA basis. We test the method on Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectra, concentrating on spectra known to contain two redshift components: these are spectra of gravitational lens candidates and massive black hole binaries. We apply a hypothesis test to compare one-redshift and two-redshift models for these spectra, utilizing the data-driven model trained on a random subset of all SDSS spectra. This test confirms 129 of the 131 lens candidates in our sample and all of the known binary candidates, and turns up very few false positives.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Herzog, James P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Bickford, Randall L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Surveillance System and Method having an Adaptive Sequential Probability Fault Detection Test

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Bickford, Randall L.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of Smart Grid Technologies Employed for System Reliability Improvement: Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration Experience

The Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration (PNWSGD) was a smart grid technology performance evaluation project that included multiple U.S. states and cooperation from multiple electric utilities in the northwest region. One of the local objectives for the project was to achieve improved distribution system reliability. Toward this end, some PNWSGD utilities automated their distribution systems, including the application of fault detection, isolation, and restoration and advanced metering infrastructure. In light of this investment, a major challenge was to establish a correlation between implementation of these smart grid technologies and actual improvements of distribution system reliability. This paper proposes using Welch’s t-test to objectively determine and quantify whether distribution system reliability is improving over time. The proposed methodology is generic, and it can be implemented by any utility after calculation of the standard reliability indices. The effectiveness of the proposed hypothesis testing approach is demonstrated through comprehensive practical results. It is believed that wider adoption of the proposed approach can help utilities to evaluate a realistic long-term performance of smart grid technologies.

Agalgaonkar, Yashodhan P. (ORCID:0000000290061848)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spatially Dependent Multiple Testing Under Model Misspecification, With Application to Detection of Anthropogenic Influence on Extreme Climate Events

The Weather Risk Attribution Forecast (WRAF) is a forecasting tool that uses output from global climate models to make simultaneous attribution statements about whether and how greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to extreme weather across the globe. However, in conducting a large number of simultaneous hypothesis tests, the WRAF is prone to identifying false “discoveries.” A common technique for addressing this multiple testing problem is to adjust the procedure in a way that controls the proportion of true null hypotheses that are incorrectly rejected, or the false discovery rate (FDR). Unfortunately, generic FDR procedures suffer from low power when the hypotheses are dependent, and techniques designed to account for dependence are sensitive to misspecification of the underlying statistical model. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian decision-theoretical approach for dependent multiple testing and a nonparametric hierarchical statistical model that flexibly controls false discovery and is robust to model misspecification. We illustrate the robustness of our procedure to model error with a simulation study, using a framework that accounts for generic spatial dependence and allows the practitioner to flexibly specify the decision criteria. Finally, we apply our procedure to several seasonal forecasts and discuss implementation for the WRAF workflow. Lastly, supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Automated system function allocation and display format: Task information processing requirements

An important consideration when designing the interface to an intelligent system concerns function allocation between the system and the user. The display of information could be held constant, or 'fixed', leaving the user with the task of searching through all of the available information, integrating it, and classifying the data into a known system state. On the other hand, the system, based on its own intelligent diagnosis, could display only relevant information in order to reduce the user's search set. The user would still be left the task of perceiving and integrating the data and classifying it into the appropriate system state. Finally, the system could display the patterns of data. In this scenario, the task of integrating the data is carried out by the system, and the user's information processing load is reduced, leaving only the tasks of perception and classification of the patterns of data. Humans are especially adept at this form of display processing. Although others have examined the relative effectiveness of alphanumeric and graphical display formats, it is interesting to reexamine this issue together with the function allocation problem. Currently, Johnson Space Center is the test site for an intelligent Thermal Control System (TCS), TEXSYS, being tested for use with Space Station Freedom. Expert TCS engineers, as well as novices, were asked to classify several displays of TEXSYS data into various system states (including nominal and anomalous states). Three different display formats were used: fixed, subset, and graphical. The hypothesis tested was that the graphical displays would provide for fewer errors and faster classification times by both experts and novices, regardless of the kind of system state represented within the display. The subset displays were hypothesized to be the second most effective display format/function allocation condition, based on the fact that the search set is reduced in these displays. Both the subset and the graphic display conditions were hypothesized to be processed more efficiently than the fixed display conditions.

Czerwinski, Mary P.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Upper bounds on the error probabilities and asymptotic error exponents in quantum multiple state discrimination

We consider the multiple hypothesis testing problem for symmetric quantum state discrimination between r given states σ₁, …, σ{sub r}. By splitting up the overall test into multiple binary tests in various ways we obtain a number of upper bounds on the optimal error probability in terms of the binary error probabilities. These upper bounds allow us to deduce various bounds on the asymptotic error rate, for which it has been hypothesized that it is given by the multi-hypothesis quantum Chernoff bound (or Chernoff divergence) C(σ₁, …, σ{sub r}), as recently introduced by Nussbaum and Szkoła in analogy with Salikhov's classical multi-hypothesis Chernoff bound. This quantity is defined as the minimum of the pairwise binary Chernoff divergences min{sub j<k}C(σ{sub j},σ). It was known already that the optimal asymptotic rate must lie between C/3 and C, and that for certain classes of sets of states the bound is actually achieved. It was known to be achieved, in particular, when the state pair that is closest together in Chernoff divergence is more than 6 times closer than the next closest pair. Our results improve on this in two ways. First, we show that the optimal asymptotic rate must lie between C/2 and C. Second, we show that the Chernoff bound is already achieved when the closest state pair is more than 2 times closer than the next closest pair. We also show that the Chernoff bound is achieved when at least r - 2 of the states are pure, improving on a previous result by Nussbaum and Szkoła. Finally, we indicate a number of potential pathways along which a proof (or disproof) may eventually be found that the multi-hypothesis quantum Chernoff bound is always achieved.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Variational autoencoders for new physics mining at the Large Hadron Collider

Using variational autoencoders trained on known physics processes, we develop a one-sided threshold test to isolate previously unseen processes as outlier events. Since the autoencoder training does not depend on any specific new physics signature, the proposed procedure doesn’t make specific assumptions on the nature of new physics. An event selection based on this algorithm would be complementary to classic LHC searches, typically based on model-dependent hypothesis testing. Such an algorithm would deliver a list of anomalous events, that the experimental collaborations could further scrutinize and even release as a catalog, similarly to what is typically done in other scientific domains. Event topologies repeating in this dataset could inspire new-physics model building and new experimental searches. Running in the trigger system of the LHC experiments, such an application could identify anomalous events that would be otherwise lost, extending the scientific reach of the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-Based CAN IDS Paper Results Code

Modern vehicles are complex cyber-physical systems made of hundreds of electronic control units (ECUs) that communicate over controller area networks (CANs). This inherited complexity has expanded the CAN attack surface which is vulnerable to message injection attacks. These injections change the overall timing characteristics of messages on the bus, and thus, to detect these malicious messages, time-based intrusion detection systems (IDSs) have been proposed. However, time-based IDSs are usually trained and tested on low-fidelity datasets with unrealistic, labeled attacks. This makes difficult the task of evaluating, comparing, and validating IDSs. Here we detail and benchmark four time-based IDSs against the newly published ROAD dataset, the first open CAN IDS dataset with real (non-simulated) stealthy attacks with physically verified effects. We found that methods that perform hypothesis testing by explicitly estimating message timing distributions have lower performance than methods that seek anomalies in a distribution related statistic. In particular, these “distribution-agnostic” based methods outperform “distribution-based” methods by at least 55% in area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR). Our results expand the body of knowledge of CAN time-based IDSs by providing details of these methods and reporting their results when tested on datasets with real advanced attacks. Finally, we develop an after-market plug-in detector using lightweight hardware, which can be used to deploy the best performing IDS method on nearly any vehicle.

Moriano, Pablo [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oa↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using the Bootstrap Method for a Statistical Significance Test of Differences between Summary Histograms

A new method is proposed to compare statistical differences between summary histograms, which are the histograms summed over a large ensemble of individual histograms. It consists of choosing a distance statistic for measuring the difference between summary histograms and using a bootstrap procedure to calculate the statistical significance level. Bootstrapping is an approach to statistical inference that makes few assumptions about the underlying probability distribution that describes the data. Three distance statistics are compared in this study. They are the Euclidean distance, the Jeffries-Matusita distance and the Kuiper distance. The data used in testing the bootstrap method are satellite measurements of cloud systems called cloud objects. Each cloud object is defined as a contiguous region/patch composed of individual footprints or fields of view. A histogram of measured values over footprints is generated for each parameter of each cloud object and then summary histograms are accumulated over all individual histograms in a given cloud-object size category. The results of statistical hypothesis tests using all three distances as test statistics are generally similar, indicating the validity of the proposed method. The Euclidean distance is determined to be most suitable after comparing the statistical tests of several parameters with distinct probability distributions among three cloud-object size categories. Impacts on the statistical significance levels resulting from differences in the total lengths of satellite footprint data between two size categories are also discussed.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS2018

Cross-Cutting Computational Modeling Project: Integrative Modeling Approach

A wide range of computational models and analyses have been applied to spaceflight risk assessment and countermeasure development. The benefits of using computational modeling to enhance Human Research Program (HRP) goals include the ability to mathematically represent physiological systems, integrate multiple, discrete experimental measures, span multiple temporal and spatial scales, determine important factors within the system and provide estimates of unmeasurable quantities. In the area of application, computational models provide a means of developing simulations to test hypotheses, determining key factors of the system to aid experimental design and bridging gaps in sparse data by mathematically simulating large populations. Specifically, computational models and their supporting analysis tools have the proven potential to integrate analyses of risk factors to enhance mission planning and preparation capabilities and to inform spacecraft design and countermeasure development. Appropriately applied, computational models may allow intelligent, unbiased physiological parameter assessment to enable hypothesis testing and model based design of experiments. HRP recently formed the Computational Modeling Project (CMP), managed out of Glenn Research Center, as a cross-cutting activity aimed at leveraging the growing power and acceptance of computational modeling in informing clinical, physiological, and biological studies. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities in implementing various forms of computational models in support of the HRPs path to risk reduction.

biomechanics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preventing Failures By Dataset Shift Detection in Safety-Critical Graph Applications

Dataset shift refers to the problem where the input data distribution may change over time (e.g., between training and test stages). Since this can be a critical bottleneck in several safety-critical applications such as healthcare, drug-discovery, etc., dataset shift detection has become an important research issue in machine learning. Though several existing efforts have focused on image/video data, applications with graph-structured data have not received sufficient attention. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the problem of detecting shifts in graph structured data through the lens of statistical hypothesis testing. Specifically, we propose a practical two-sample test based approach for shift detection in large-scale graph structured data. Our approach is very flexible in that it is suitable for both undirected and directed graphs, and eliminates the need for equal sample sizes. Using empirical studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed test in detecting dataset shifts. We also corroborate these findings using real-world datasets, characterized by directed graphs and a large number of nodes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

On the accuracy of Hipparcos using binary stars as a calibration tool

Stellar binary systems, specifically those that present the most accurate available orbital elements, are a reliable tool to test the accuracy of astrometric observations. We selected all 35 binaries with these characteristics. Our objective is to provide standard uncertainties for the positions and parallaxes measured by Hipparcos relative to this trustworthy set, as well as to check supposed correlations between several parameters (measurement residuals, positions, magnitudes, and parallaxes). In addition, using the high-confidence subset of visual–spectroscopic binaries, we implemented a validation test of the Hipparcos trigonometric parallaxes of binary systems that allowed the evaluation of their reliability. Standard and non-standard statistical analysis techniques were applied in order to achieve well-founded conclusions. In particular, errors-in-variables models such as the total least-squares method were used to validate Hipparcos parallaxes by comparison with those obtained directly from the orbital elements. Previously, we executed Thompson's τ technique in order to detect suspected outliers in the data. Furthermore, several statistical hypothesis tests were carried out to verify if our results were statistically significant. A statistically significant trend indicating larger Hipparcos angular separations with respect to the reference values in 5.2 ± 1.4 mas was found at the 10{sup −8} significance level. Uncertainties in the polar coordinates θ and ρ of 1.°8 and 6.3 mas, respectively, were estimated for the Hipparcos observations of binary systems. We also verified that the parallaxes of binary systems measured in this mission are absolutely compatible with the set of orbital parallaxes obtained from the most accurate orbits at least at the 95% confidence level. This methodology allows us to better estimate the accuracy of Hipparcos observations of binary systems. Indeed, further application to the data collected by Gaia should yield a standard procedure to compare both data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical significance of the sterile-neutrino hypothesis in the context of reactor and gallium data

We evaluate the statistical significance of the 3+1 sterile-neutrino hypothesis using $v_e$ and $\bar{v}_e$ disappearance data from reactor, solar and gallium radioactive source experiments. Concerning the latter, we investigate the implications of the recent BEST results. For reactor data we focus on relative measurements independent of flux predictions. For the problem at hand, the usual χ 2 -approximation to hypothesis testing based on Wilks’ theorem has been shown in the literature to be inaccurate. We therefore present results based on Monte Carlo simulations, and find that this typically reduces the significance by roughly 1σ with respect to the naïve expectation. We find no significant indication in favor of sterile-neutrino oscillations from reactor data. On the other hand, gallium data (dominated by the BEST result) show more than 5σ of evidence supporting the sterile-neutrino hypothesis, favoring oscillation parameters in agreement with constraints from reactor data. This explanation is, however, in significant tension (~3 σ) with solar neutrino experiments. In order to assess the robustness of the signal for gallium experiments we present a discussion of the impact of cross-section uncertainties on the results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hybrid statistical testing for nuclear material accounting data and/or process monitoring data in nuclear safeguards

The aim of nuclear safeguards is to ensure that special nuclear material is used for peaceful purposes. Historically, nuclear material accounting (NMA) has provided the quantitative basis for monitoring for nuclear material loss or diversion, and process monitoring (PM) data is collected by the operator to monitor the process. PM data typically support NMA in various ways, often by providing a basis to estimate some of the in-process nuclear material inventory. We develop options for combining PM residuals and NMA residuals (residual = measurement - prediction), using a hybrid of period-driven and data-driven hypothesis testing. The modified statistical tests can be used on time series of NMA residuals (the NMA residual is the familiar material balance), or on a combination of PM and NMA residuals. The PM residuals can be generated on a fixed time schedule or as events occur.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗