A Decision-Based Iterative Modeling Framework for Probabilistic Performance Assessments - 18441
Radiological probabilistic performance assessments (PPAs) employ highly complex computer models to simulate the release of radionuclides from wastes in an engineered disposal facility, migration of these radionuclides over time, and resulting radiological dose to potentially exposed individuals. An iterative approach to PPA modeling is described to help define the appropriate complexity of the computer model. An initial model is developed that addresses all relevant processes and media, but that employs preliminary statistical parameter distributions to minimize the initial effort expended. Where appropriate, transport and exposure submodels with simplifying assumptions are also used in the initial model. Different assumptions and boundaries may be explored with the initial model to assess their importance in constraining model results. Exploration of the results of the initial model are used to determine the benefits of model refinements, and to guide such refinements to focus on specific areas of the model that most influence the model outputs of interest. This approach promotes efficiency and model parsimony, but does not compromise defensibility when performed in a transparent manner. Key model boundaries for a PPA include the time frame of the modeling (temporal boundaries), where future human receptors may be located (spatial boundaries), and what types of land uses and activities may exist in the future (exposure scenarios). Simplified transport and exposure models can be useful in helping decision makers and stakeholders establish such boundaries by analyzing the consequences of selecting different bounds and understanding which assumptions and boundaries have the greatest influence on the magnitude and distribution of model results. Pathway analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis performed on PPA model results are key components of the iterative modeling approach. The objective of pathway analysis is to identify the critical radionuclides and pathways contributing to radiation dose during the modeling performance period. An environmental 'pathway' is described by the connections from a waste package or cell in the disposal facility to a future human exposure event. These connections are commonly visualized using graphical means. A simple example of a potentially complete pathway for radon-222 is: radium-containing waste → radon emanation → upwards diffusion in cap material → diffusion/advection into a future building → inhalation exposure to a building occupant Parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted on the results of a PPA to identify those specific model input parameters whose distribution of values contributes the most to the distribution of target model output, such as annual radiation dose. Pathway and sensitivity analyses on initial modeling results provide information for guiding subsequent model development, and possibly interim decisions, by informing questions tied to the modeling objectives and performance criteria. For example, questions related to radiological doses from existing disposals may include: 1. Is radiation dose from radiological exposures either obviously negligible or obviously unacceptable based on initial modeling results? 2. If dose is not obviously negligible or unacceptable relative to applicable performance criteria, what model refinements would reduce uncertainty in the results to better inform decisions? (authors)