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Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) Integration into the National Airspace System (NAS)

NASA's Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) integration into the National Air Space (NAS) project has been working closely with the FAA and RTCA Special Committee 228 to identify and break down barriers to UAS integration. A focus of this work is on detect and avoid (DAA) technologies. A pilot has responsibility to see and avoid other aircraft and to remain "well clear," using their best judgment (Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) Sec. 91.113). For UAS to perform this function, the see function is replaced by sensors to detect the other aircraft. Secondly, the pilot judgment of well clear has to be replaced by a mathematical expression. For Phase 1 of this effort, a well clear violation was defined if all three of these conditions are true: a) the horizontal clearance is less than 4000 ft., and b) the vertical clearance is less than 450 ft., and c) the time to loss of well clear is less than 35 seconds. This definition was developed with a great deal of community input and testing to ensure interoperability with Air Traffic Control (ATC) and pilots of manned aircraft. Appropriate guidance, alerting and displays were developed to allow UAS, with the appropriate sensors, to effectively maintain well clear. This work contributed to FAA Technical Standard Orders: TSO-C211, Detect and Avoid and TSO-C212, ATAR for Traffic Surveillance. Phase 2 of this work extends the operational environment to include the terminal area and lesser capable aircraft that might not have the payload capability to carry the RADAR defined in Phase 1. This session reports on work from Phase 1 and initial work in Phase 2.

UAS

Detect and Avoid: Efforts from NASA's UAS Integration into the NAS Project

NASA's Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) integration into the National Air Space (NAS) project has been working closely with the FAA and RTCA Special Committee 228 to identify and break down barriers to UAS integration. A focus of this work is on detect and avoid (DAA) technologies. A pilot has responsibility to see and avoid other aircraft and to remain "well clear," using their best judgment (Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) Sec. 91.113). For UAS to perform this function, the see function is replaced by sensors to detect the other aircraft. Secondly, the pilot judgment of well clear has to be replaced by a mathematical expression. For Phase 1 of this effort, a well clear violation was defined if all three of these conditions are true: a) the horizontal clearance is less than 4000 ft., and b) the vertical clearance is less than 450 ft., and c) the time to loss of well clear is less than 35 seconds. This definition was developed with a great deal of community input and testing to ensure interoperability with Air Traffic Control (ATC) and pilots of manned aircraft. Appropriate guidance, alerting and displays were developed to allow UAS, with the appropriate sensors, to effectively maintain well clear. This work contributed to FAA Technical Standard Orders: TSO-C211, Detect and Avoid and TSO-C212, ATAR for Traffic Surveillance. Phase 2 of this work extends the operational environment to include the terminal area and lesser capable aircraft that might not have the payload capability to carry the RADAR defined in Phase 1. This session reports on work from Phase 1 and initial work in Phase 2.

Detect and Avoid (DAA)

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-22 Advanced Nozzle Test Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the Advanced Nozzle Test Facility, CE-22, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for the uncertainty in thrust and flow coefficients, in addition to other variables of interest, are provided. Results are presented separately as random uncertainty (characterizing errors inherent to instrument or measurement environment, impacting repeatability), systematic uncertainty (capturing inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other sources which may introduce bias), and total combined uncertainty. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The analysis tool MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation system uncertainty, and statistical analysis and engineering judgment were used to quantify other random and systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic and random elemental uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

data quality

Medical Decision Making in the Physician Hierarchy: A Pilot Pedagogical Evaluation

Context: Recently, The American College of Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has included the medical decision making as a core competency in several specialties. To date, the ability to demonstrate and measure a pedagogical evolution of medical judgment in a medical education program has been limited. Objective: In this study we hope to examine differences in medical decision making ability of different physicians across their various stages of post-graduate hierarchy. Method: Physcians spanning a wide spectrum of scientific disciplines were recruited for three catagories: administrative physicians(AP) representing physcians with the most experience but mostly practice administratively; resident physicians completing their postgraduate medical training (RP) and seasoned attending physicians with mastery level experience (MP). Participants completed four medical simulations focused on abdominal pain: cholecystitis (CH) and renal colic(RC) and chest pain; Cardiac ischemia (STEMI) and pneumothorax (PX). Simulation were ordered randomly so that there was no systematic bias due to learning or to fatigue. The Medical judgment metric (MJM) was used to evaluate medical decision-making. Results: There were no significant differences between the AP, RP, and MP groups in the gender, race, ethnicity, education, and baseline heart rate. There was a significant (p=0.002) interaction effect for simulation time and RP group, 6.2 minutes (+/-1.58); MP group, 8.7 minutes (+/-2.46); and AP group, 10.3 minutes (+/-2.78). The RC MJM scores were significantly (P=0.10) worse in the AP group 12.3 (+/-2.66) then the RP 14.7(+/-1.15) and MP17.7 (+/-1.15) groups. In every simulation, the AP group MJM scores were worse on average (no significantly) compared to the MP and RP groups. The AP group was significantly (P=0.040) less likely to stabilize the subject in the RC simulation than MP and RP groups. Conclusion: There remains significant variability in the medical education and skill retention influences medical decision making throughout a physician's career.

Rosasco, John

NASA Passive Thermal Control Engineering Guidebook

The NASA Passive Thermal Control Engineering Guidebook provides recommendations, including best practices and lessons learned, related to the passive thermal control engineering discipline. Topics include analysis (including documentation and review), thermal hardware (design/selection, vendors, and integration), testing, and flight operations. The passive thermal discipline includes thermal control and thermal protection systems. The passive thermal control discipline, which is addressed in this Guidebook, is broad and covers internal and external systems, component passive thermal analysis, vehicle on-orbit attitude timeline analysis, integrated thermal analysis, various thermal control apparatus (heaters and controls, coatings, blankets and insulations, isolators, geometric design for view factors, materials emissivity/absorptivity properties), passive cooling of avionics, purge, vent, and drain for vehicle cavities and compartments, thermal model development and correlation, thermal cycle and thermal-vacuum testing. Topics related to thermal protection systems (TPS) are not within the scope of this document. The Guidebook provides a consolidated reference for early career as well as experienced engineers embarking on a new task. Leveraging the experience of the group minimizes the learning curve that exists at the start of new projects, reduces the risk of repeating mistakes, and improves the organization’s ability to deliver high-quality products efficiently. The intent of this document is to provide guidance based on collective experience, and is not intended impose constraints on project work. Best practices can vary substantially and it is important to apply judgment wisely based on careful consideration of the specific design and requirements. Implementation of the methods described will vary from project to project and should be applied in conjunction with the judgment of the thermal engineers performing and reviewing the work. The recommendations in this document are not intended to replace program, project, branch, Center, or NASA requirements and/or policies.

thermal

NASA Passive Thermal Control Engineering Guidebook

The NASA Passive Thermal Control Engineering Guidebook provides recommendations, including best practices and lessons learned, related to the passive thermal control engineering discipline. Topics include analysis (including documentation and review), thermal hardware (design/selection, vendors, and integration), testing, and flight operations. The passive thermal discipline includes thermal control and thermal protection systems. The passive thermal control discipline, which is addressed in this Guidebook, is broad and covers internal and external systems, component passive thermal analysis, vehicle on-orbit attitude timeline analysis, integrated thermal analysis, various thermal control apparatus (heaters and controls, coatings, blankets and insulations, isolators, geometric design for view factors, materials emissivity/absorptivity properties), passive cooling of avionics, purge, vent, and drain for vehicle cavities and compartments, thermal model development and correlation, thermal cycle and thermal-vacuum testing. Topics related to thermal protection systems (TPS) are not within the scope of this document. The Guidebook provides a consolidated reference for early career as well as experienced engineers embarking on a new task. Leveraging the experience of the group minimizes the learning curve that exists at the start of new projects, reduces the risk of repeating mistakes, and improves the organization’s ability to deliver high-quality products efficiently. The intent of this document is to provide guidance based on collective experience, and is not intended impose constraints on project work. Best practices can vary substantially and it is important to apply judgment wisely based on careful consideration of the specific design and requirements. Implementation of the methods described will vary from project to project and should be applied in conjunction with the judgment of the thermal engineers performing and reviewing the work. The recommendations in this document are not intended to replace program, project, branch, Center, or NASA requirements and/or policies.

thermal

Virtual refrigerant charge sensor for variable-speed heat pumps based on feature selection

The refrigerant charge level in heat pump systems significantly impacts their energy efficiency. Virtual refrigerant charge (VRC) sensing technology has been comprehensively investigated and well-established due to its lower cost compared to physical sensors. However, the previous VRC research often relied on expert judgment and physical reasoning for their variable selection, which can potentially select redundant (or highly correlated) or insignificant features, and it is also primarily focused on single-speed systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes a VRC algorithm for variable-speed heat pumps that selects features through a rigorous feature selection method in combination with physical insights. We also propose a piecewise linear model structure segmented by subcooling temperature to accurately predict charge levels, particularly when subcooling temperatures are substantially low. The proposed algorithm was evaluated using experimental data of a residential R410A heat pump, and the performance was compared with two baseline VRC algorithms. The results are: (1) The proposed algorithm outperforms for the case with subcooling temperature less than 1 °C. (2) The proposed algorithm achieves a tested mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4.23%, and improves the overall accuracy for cooling conditions by approximately 60%, compared with the two baseline algorithms. (3) The proposed algorithm uses two fewer features and improves the accuracy for undercharge cooling conditions by 68.0%, compared with baseline algorithm 2. These improvements enhance prediction accuracy and prevent overfitting, providing a more reliable refrigerant charge level prediction and helping improve the heat pump energy efficiency.

Liang, Chenjiyu

Governing in Time: Temporal Capacity and the Feasibility of Energy Transitions

Energy systems function as both technological systems and temporal institutions that shape how societies coordinate, justify, and support collective choices over time. This paper introduces the concept of governance horizons to explain why energy transitions can remain morally supported yet become institutionally weak under increasing pressure. We argue that governability depends on institutions' capacity to synchronize across multiple timeframes - aligning short-term decisions with intermediate coordination and long-term commitments. When this synchronization fails, transitions struggle not because their goals are dismissed, but because governance lacks sufficient time to justify, coordinate, and uphold decisions. Comparative analysis of San Antonio, Texas, and Interior Alaska reveals how energy system pressures generate distinct temporal configurations: San Antonio exhibits governance horizon stretching, where institutions must simultaneously meet near-term reliability demands and long-term transformation goals, while Interior Alaska exhibits horizon compression, where extreme environmental constraints force decision-making into short stabilization cycles. In both contexts, public support for sustainability goals coexists with institutional strain because evaluative judgments are unevenly distributed over time. A temporal configuration analysis is introduced as a diagnostic analytic stance for identifying these patterns. By treating temporal alignment as an explanatory variable rather than a background condition, this approach clarifies how feasibility, sequencing, and legitimacy are shaped by constraints on institutional time. The analysis demonstrates that successful energy transitions depend not only on technological innovation or institutional support, but on governance systems’ ability to sustain credible coordination across multiple time horizons.

Comparative case study

Impact of representative ground motion level on seismic PSA with the boundary between overestimation and underestimation

One commonly used approach in seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the discrete method. This method follows the standard PSA framework and can be applied to various models, such as multi-unit models, while reducing computational costs using standard software. However, due to the inability to subdivide intervals infinitely, the discrete method approximates with a finite number of subintervals. In practice, different numbers of subintervals are applied, and the representative ground motion level is selected based on expert judgment. When employing a smaller number of subintervals, it is important to take caution to prevent underestimation. This study analyzes the impact of the representative ground motion level on seismic risk. It confirms that underestimation can occur with a small number of subintervals depending on the representative ground motion level. This study also proposes a method for determining the boundary of underestimation and overestimation. The method is demonstrated through examples, providing a mathematical foundation for selecting appropriate representative ground motion levels. By avoiding underestimation, this research helps prevent the oversight of significant risk contributors and enhances the understanding of seismic risk.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Technoeconomic Design Optimization for Fast Reactors. Part I: Workflow Development and Case Study for Small LFR District Energy Application

The nuclear industry is developing small reactor designs that can target a variety of deployment locations and energy products. Smaller nuclear designs have traditionally struggled to handle the steep trade-offs between size and cost that have historically incentivized large reactors. This motivates computational optimization of small reactors to minimize costs and quantify the trade-off between size and cost. In this paper, the cost/size trade-off for a small fast reactor is derived using a multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization, with steady-state, transient, and cost analysis of the fast reactor being performed. Specifically, the method is demonstrated on a small 10- to 120-MW(thermal) U-Pu-Zr–fueled lead-cooled fast reactor with a 10-year core life for district energy applications, which can have a thermal load compatible with this range. The results reinforced that fast reactor cores at the lower end of this power range suffer cost penalties due to critical mass considerations. It was found that high power density cores with strong reactivity swings and many control rods were favored over designing to minimize reactivity swing. Furthermore, this contrasts with some traditional configurations designed using engineering judgment and demonstrates that optimizers can find nontraditional but realistic solutions, along with demonstrating the value of incorporating cost functions into whole-reactor design optimization.

Fast reactor

The ballad of LLM agents: philosophical reasoning for chemistry

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable potential for scientific reasoning but often produce unreliable or scientifically unactionable outputs when faced with multi-step logic, domain grounding, and interpretability challenges, especially in complex fields like chemistry and materials science. Here, we introduce a framework of philosophical reasoning agents, inspired by canonical thinkers such as Socrates, Descartes, Kant, and Hume, to guide LLM behavior via structured prompt engineering. These agents embody distinct reasoning paradigms (dialectical inquiry, deductive logic, rule-based judgment, and empirical validation) and are evaluated across multiple chemistry subdomains, physical, analytical, general, inorganic, and organic chemistry, using the ChemBench benchmark. Our agentic prompting approach yields substantial accuracy gains on open-ended numerical chemistry questions, with gains of +11.5 percentage points for GPT-4o with Hume, +4.5 percentage points for GPT-5 with Kant, and +21.8 percentage points for GPT-5.1 with Socrates at the strict 1% error threshold, relative to the corresponding base models. Beyond accuracy, we observe benchmark-level model–agent performance patterns, suggesting that different prompting styles interact differently with each base model. These findings demonstrate that embedding philosophy-of-science principles into multi-agent frameworks can improve and produce interpretable, adaptive, and domain-aligned scientific LLMs.

Harb, Hassan [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A

Feedback and Oscillations: Constructing Feedback Systems for Root Cause Analysis of Oscillations in Power Grids

Dynamic phenomena linked to inverter-based resources (IBRs) have gained global attention. Several IBR-induced dynamics have caused bulk power system-connected wind or solar power plants to trip, and some have even led to widespread outages. In addition, many oscillations have been observed involving IBR power plants. In 2023, the IEEE Power & Energy Society (PES) IBR Subsynchronous Oscillations (SSO) task force published a journal article, “Real-World Subsynchronous Oscillation Events in Power Grids With High Penetrations of Inverter-Based Resources,” in which 19 IBR oscillation events were examined for their causation. Earlier in 2020, another PES task force article, “Definition and Classification of Power System Stability-Revisited & Extended,” authored by prominent academics, introduced converter-driven stability as a new category of stability. The international power grid industry community also took action by publishing the CIGRE Green Book, Power System Dynamic Modelling and Analysis in Evolving Networks (led by Babak Badrzadeh and Zia Emin) in 2024. In August 2024, the Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) released a practical guide led by Nick Miller, “Diagnosis and Mitigation of Observed Oscillations in IBR-Dominant Power System: A Practical Guide.” The goal of the guide is to assist practicing engineers in making initial judgments and conducting detailed analyses about oscillations. Finally, when addressing the classification of stability and oscillations, the guide emphasizes a causality-based taxonomy for grouping, such as voltage control-induced oscillations, synchronization-induced oscillations, and frequency or active power control-induced oscillations.

Fan, Lingling [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (

C‐Cracking of Brittle‐Material Spheres From Eccentric Hertzian Contact

Contact of brittle-material spheres can occur while they are manufactured, handled, or used in operation as roller elements or in deformably processed composite material. Statistically, the directional contact between two spheres will nearly always be oblique or eccentric in an unconfined and mobile sphere population. Although analyses of oblique contact exist, the portrayal of its maximum (tensile) first principal stress ( S 1 ) field is lacking. This information is needed for improved judgment of the prospect of crack initiation. Given these, the S 1 due to eccentric contact and subsequent crack initiation was analyzed using finite element analysis (FEA) and corroborative demonstration of c-crack creation. The FEA shows that an asymmetric S 1 field is created about the contact patch and is caused by superimposed shear intrinsic to eccentric contact. A crack will initiate if the maximum S 1 exceeds the material's tensile strength, and its field will cause the crack to propagate and arrest to form a C-shaped crack, or c-crack. C-crack initiation trends with lower applied forces, with greater amount of contact eccentricity, higher coefficient of friction, and smaller spherical radius. Finally, these metrics deserve recognition, especially when c-cracked brittle-material spheres are used in a system whose functionality or reliability is potentially compromised by the c-cracks.

Hertzian contact

Examining Cloud Feedback Components in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Cloud feedback remains the main source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimated by global climate models (GCMs), largely because subgrid cloud responses are parameterized in GCMs due to their coarse resolution. Here, this study examines cloud feedback in the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km) through a pair of 1-yr atmosphere-only simulations with control and +4-K sea surface temperature perturbations. SCREAM 3 km produces a positive cloud feedback that falls within but at the upper end of the range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) models and expert judgment. The positive cloud feedback arises from positive contributions from both high- and low-level clouds, with increases in high-cloud altitude and decreases in low-cloud amount and optical depth playing key roles. The stronger-than-CMIP-average feedback is mainly attributable to the high-cloud altitude feedback, owing to cloud tops rising nearly isothermally in SCREAM 3 km. The positive low-cloud amount feedback is weaker in SCREAM than in GCMs because estimated inversion strength (EIS) increases more dramatically with warming. A coarser 12-km resolution version of SCREAM exhibits a weaker positive cloud feedback than SCREAM 3 km, mainly because its low-cloud-radiative flux is more sensitive to EIS, leading to a stronger negative low-cloud amount feedback. With this process-level assessment of cloud feedback, this study reveals where SCREAM aligns with and diverges from conventional GCMs and expert assessment, providing insights to inform further model improvement and future expert assessment.

Cloud radiative effects

Understanding Decision-Relevant Regional Data Products: Workshop Report

A broad community of climate adaptation practitioners, stakeholders and policymakers rely on historical reconstructions and future projections of local to regional climate. To be of value to these users, climate data must be credible, salient, and authoritative (Cash et al. 2002). Namely, data must be consistent with our physical understanding of the global Earth system, must be relevant for informing the decision-making process, and must be backed by expert judgment. As more and more data products have become available, multiple challenges have emerged around the production, evaluation, selection, and use of these data products. Consequently, to ensure crucial decisions leverage the best possible historical and future physical climate data, there is a pressing need to develop a coordinated national climate data strategy that is inclusive of all relevant communities of practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES