TU-D-207B-01: A Prediction Model for Distinguishing Radiation Necrosis From Tumor Progression After Gamma Knife Radiosurgery Based On Radiomics Features From MR Images
Purpose: To develop and validate a prediction model using radiomics features extracted from MR images to distinguish radiation necrosis from tumor progression for brain metastases treated with Gamma knife radiosurgery. Methods: The images used to develop the model were T1 post-contrast MR scans from 71 patients who had had pathologic confirmation of necrosis or progression; 1 lesion was identified per patient (17 necrosis and 54 progression). Radiomics features were extracted from 2 images at 2 time points per patient, both obtained prior to resection. Each lesion was manually contoured on each image, and 282 radiomics features were calculated for each lesion. The correlation for each radiomics feature between two time points was calculated within each group to identify a subset of features with distinct values between two groups. The delta of this subset of radiomics features, characterizing changes from the earlier time to the later one, was included as a covariate to build a prediction model using support vector machines with a cubic polynomial kernel function. The model was evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation. Results: Forty radiomics features were selected based on consistent correlation values of approximately 0 for the necrosis group and >0.2 for the progression group. In performing the 10-fold cross-validation, we narrowed this number down to 11 delta radiomics features for the model. This 11-delta-feature model showed an overall prediction accuracy of 83.1%, with a true positive rate of 58.8% in predicting necrosis and 90.7% for predicting tumor progression. The area under the curve for the prediction model was 0.79. Conclusion: These delta radiomics features extracted from MR scans showed potential for distinguishing radiation necrosis from tumor progression. This tool may be a useful, noninvasive means of determining the status of an enlarging lesion after radiosurgery, aiding decision-making regarding surgical resection versus conservative medical management.