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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗
NASA NTRS1948

Ditching Tests of a 1/18-Scale Model of the Lockheed Constellation Airplane

Tests were made of a 1/18-scale dynamically similar model of the Lockheed Constellation airplane to investigate its ditching characteristics and proper ditching technique. Scale-strength bottoms were used to reproduce probable damage to the fuselage. The model was landed in calm water at the Langley tank no. 2 monorail. Various landing attitudes, speeds, and fuselage configuration were simulated. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, by recording the longitudinal decelerations, and by taking motion pictures of the ditchings. Data are presented in tabular form, sequence photographs, and time-history deceleration curves. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at a medium nose-high landing attitude with the landing flaps full down. The airplane will probably make a deep run with heavy spray and may even dive slightly. The fuselage will be damaged and leak substantially but in calm water probably will not flood rapidly. Maximum longitudinal decelerations in a calm-water ditching will be about 4g.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Interference effects of thrust reversing on horizontal tail effectiveness of twin-engine fighter aircraft at Mach numbers from 0.15 to 0.90

An investigation was conducted in the Langley 16 foot Transonic Tunnel to determine the interference effects of thrust reversing on horizontal tail effectiveness of a twin engine, general research fighter model at approach and in-flight speeds. Twin vertical tails at three longitudinal locations were tested at a cant angle of 0 deg. One configuration was also tested at a cant angle of 20 deg. Two nonaxisymmetric nozzle reverser concepts were studied. Test data were obtained at Mach numbers of 0.15, 0.60, and 0.90 and at angles of attack from -3 to 9 deg. Nozzle pressure ratios varied from jet off to 7.0, depending upon Mach number. At landing approach speed (Mach number 0.15), thrust reverser operation usually resulted in large variations (up to 70% increase) in horizontal tail effectiveness as nozzle pressure ratio was varied at zero angle of attack or as angle of attack was varied at constant nozzle pressure ratio. There was always a decrease in effectiveness at Mach numbers of 0.60 and 0.90 as a result of reverser operation.

Capone, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GDDP↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗
NASA NTRS1972

Preliminary results of flight tests of the augmentor-wing jet STOL research aircraft

The Augmentor-Wing Jet STOL Research Aircraft has been developed and has started flight tests. The objectives of the program are to compare aerodynamic characteristics predicted from wind-tunnel data with data obtained in flight, to determine flight dynamic characteristics and limitations of the augmentor-wing concepts, and to contribute to the development of STOL design and operational criteria. Initial flight test results have shown that the aerodynamic characteristics are close to values predicted from wind-tunnel tests. The lateral-directional stability and control characteristics are satisfactory for research STOL missions with stability augmentation, but the longitudinal control require improvement. STOL take-off distance over 11 m is about 290 m, and landing approach speeds are between 60 and 65 knots. The investigation of the STOL operational and performance characteristics is continuing.

Quigley, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Effect of Subsonic Inlet Lip Geometry on Predicted Surface and Flow Mach Number Distributions

The effect of subsonic inlet lip geometry on predicted surface and flow Mach number distributions is illustrated. The theoretical results were obtained from incompressible potential flow calculations corrected for compressibility. The major emphasis of this investigation is on the low-speed (takeoff and landing) operating conditions. The low-speed results were obtained for a range of three geometric variables of interest: contraction ratio, defined as the ratio of highlight area to throat area; internal lip major - to minor-axis ratio; and internal lip shape. The low-speed results were obtained at both static conditions and a free-stream velocity of 42.6m/sec, with incidence angles ranging from 0 deg to 50 deg. The results indicate that of the three geometric variables considered, contraction ratio had the largest effect on the surface Mach number distributions. The effects of inlet diameter ratio and blunting of the external forebody on maximum external surface Mach numbers are illustrated at a cruise Mach number of 0.8.

Albers, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Pilot centered requirements in control/display design

A method developed for predicting pilot opinion ratings for particular vehicles and tasks using optimal control pilot model is described and an outline of a flight director design procedure based upon the optimal control pilot model is given. Longitudinal and lateral control of a helicopter in hover and in a -6 deg constant ground speed-command landing approach are considered. Emphasis is placed on display design for optimum V/STOL control.

Hess, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Influence of antimisting polymer on aviation fuel breakup

Experiments have been performed to determine the influence of a moving airstream on jet and drop breakup of fuel containing small concentrations of antimisting polymers. This study was motivated by the needs to inhibit the ignition of fuel during a survivable aircraft crash landing. High speed motion pictures of initial deformation rates and instant pictures of initial deformation rates and instant pictures of the drop breakup suggest that the enormous resistance to the sudden deformation of fuel containing antimisting polymer is related to the development of high tensile viscosity, even though the shear viscosity is not markedly affected. Study of a pendant drop fiber was undertaken to determine this tensile viscosity of antimisting fuel as a function of temperature and of polymer concentration.

Sarohia, V.↗
NASA NTRS1958

Blowing-Type Boundary-Layer Control as Applied to the Trailing-Edge Flaps of a 35 Degree Swept-Wing Airplane

A wind-tunnel investigation was made to determine the effects on the aerodynamic characteristics of a 35 degree swept-wing airplane of applying blowing-type boundary-layer control to the trailing-edge flaps. Flight tests of a similar airplane were then conducted to determine the effects of boundary-layer control on the handling qualities and operation of the airplane, particularly during landing and take-off. The wind-tunnel and flight tests indicated that blowing over the flaps produced large increases in flap lift increment, and significant increases in maximum lift. The use of blowing permitted reductions in the landing approach speeds of as much as 12 knots.

Kelly, Mark W↗
NASA NTRS1992

Overview of NASA human response to sonic boom program

For some routes the ability to fly at supersonic speeds over land as well as over water would greatly enhance the time benefit to the passenger. It would also increase the productivity and economic viability of the aircraft. There are no reliable guidelines which can be used to determine a sonic boom exposure which would be acceptable for overland supersonic flight. In addition to the peak pressure of the sonic boom, the detailed shape of the signature will also influence the perception, and therefore the community response, to sonic boom exposures. Initially, the program aims to develop the capability to predict human response to individual sonic booms. This will enable a quantitative assessment of the benefit of 'low boom' aircraft configurations and will also serve to guide the design of the aircraft and its operating conditions. This capability will form the foundation of studies to determine the relationship between sonic boom exposure and community response. Only then will it be possible to assess the feasibility of acceptable overland supersonic flight.

Shepherd, Kevin P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Dynamic ground effects flight test of an F-15 aircraft

Flight tests to determine the changes in the aerodynamic characteristics of an F-15 aircraft caused by dynamic ground effects are described. Data were obtained for low and high sink rates between 0.7 and 6.5 ft/sec and at two landing approach speeds and flap settings: 150 kn with the flaps down and 170 kn with the flaps up. Simple correlation curves are given for the change in aerodynamic coefficients because of ground effects as a function of sink rate. Ground effects generally caused an increase in the lift, drag, and nose-down pitching movement coefficients. The change in the lift coefficient increased from approximately 0.05 at the high-sink rate to approximately 0.10 at the low-sink rate. The change in the drag coefficient increased from approximately 0 to 0.03 over this decreasing sink rate range. No significant difference because of the approach configuration was evident for lift and drag; however, a significant difference in pitching movement was observed for the two approach speeds and flap settings. For the 170 kn with the flaps up configuration, the change in the nose-down pitching movement increased from approximately -0.008 to -0.016. For the 150 kn with the flaps down configuration, the change was approximately -0.008 to -0.038.

Corda, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS1955

Ditching Investigation of a 1/10-Scale Model of the Grumman F9F-2 Airplane, TED No. NACA DE 335

An investigation was made of a 1/10-scale dynamically similar model of the Grumman FgF-2 airplane to study its behavior when ditched. The model was landed in calm water at the Langley Tank No. 2 monorail. Various landing attitudes, speeds, and configurations were investigated. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, acceleration records, and motion-picture records of the ditchings. Data are presented in tabular form, sequence photographs, time-history acceleration curves, and plots of attitude and speed against distance after contact.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗