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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

water↗
NASA NTRS2016

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

biogeochemistry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GLDAS-2 Land Surface Model Data and Data Services at NASA GES DISC

The goal of the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS, https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/gldas(https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/gldas)) is to generate optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes by ingesting satellite- and ground-based observational data products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques (Rodell et al., 2004).The GLDAS dataset currently archived at and distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC, https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/)) is GLDAS Version 2 (GLDAS-2). It contains a series of output fields from the upgraded Noah-3.6, Catchment-F2.5, and VIC-4.1.2 Land Surface Models (LSMs) in the Land Information System (LIS-V7, https://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov/ (https://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov/)). GLDAS-2 has three components:GLDAS-2.0, GLDAS-2.1, and GLDAS-2.2. GLDAS-2.0 is forced entirely with the upgraded Princeton Meteorological ForcingV2.2 Dataset and provides a temporally consistent series from 1948 through 2014. GLDAS-2.1 is forced with a combination of model and observation data, with data spanning from 2000 to the present. The GLDAS-2.2 product suite uses data assimilation(DA), whereas the GLDAS-2.0 and GLDAS-2.1 products are "open-loop" (i.e., no data assimilation). The choice of forcing data, as well as DA observation source, variable, and scheme, varies for different GLDAS-2.2 products. The currently availableGLDAS-2.2 data contain a daily 0.25-degree output from the Catchment-F2.5 LSM in LIS-V7. The data are forced with the meteorological analysis fields from the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and assimilated with GRACE and GRACE-FO data, ranging from February 1, 2003 to the present. The current GLDAS-2.0 and 2.1 Noah LSM data were reprocessed in November 2019 and January 2020 respectively and their data from Catchment and VIC LSMs are new to the GLDAS-2 collection. This presentation provides a summary of theGLDAS-2 data products, their land surface fields, and their related data services at the GES DISC; and a description of the majorGLDAS-2 climatological characteristics as well as the intercomparison with the data of the previous version.

Hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2021

Expanding the application of soil moisture monitoring systems through regression-based transformation

Relative to other geophysical variables, soil moisture (SM) estimates derived from land surface models (LSMs) and land data assimilation systems (LDAS) are difficult to transfer between platforms and applications. This difficulty stems from the highly model-dependent nature of LSM SM estimates and differences in the vertical support of discretized SM values. As a result, operational SM estimates generated by one LSM (or LDAS) cannot generally be directly applied to a hydrologic monitoring or forecast system designed around a second LSM. This lack of transferability is particularly problematic for LDAS applications, where the time, expertise, and computational resources required to generate an operational LDAS analysis cannot be practically duplicated for every LSM-specific application. Here, we develop a set of simple regression tools for translating SM estimates between LSMs and multiple LDAS analyses. Results demonstrate that simple multivariate linear regression - utilizing independent variables based on multi-layer and temporally lagged SM estimates - can significantly improve upon baseline transformation approaches using direct percentile matching. The proposed regression approaches are effective for both the LSM-to-LSM and LDAS-to-LDAS transformation of multi-layer SM percentiles. Application of this approach will expand the utility of existing, high-quality (but LSM-specific) operational sources of SM information like the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4 Soil Moisture product.

Soil Moisture↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Remote Sensing of Lineage Functional Types for Modeling and Monitoring Biodiversity

Hyperspectral remote sensing has the potential to continuously scale plant function and plant diversity information from landscape to global extents. Numerous studies have indicated that VSWIR (400-2500 nm) reflectance properties of vegetation capture evolutionarily conserved biochemical, structural, and other functional attributes of plant species. Spectral properties conserved in plants provide the opportunity to both 1) aggregate species into lineages with improved classification accuracy and 2) link those lineages directly to plant traits. Full realization of this goal will enable parameterization of Land Surface Models (LSMs) with remotely sensed information, e.g., canopy nitrogen, and better representations of biodiversity and functional diversity in biogeographic studies. In this study, we use hyperspectral AVIRIS data from the 2013 HyspIRI campaign over the Southern Sierra Nevada, California flight box to investigate the potential for incorporating evolutionary thinking into landcover classification. We link the airborne hyperspectral data with vegetation plot data from roughly 1372 surveys and a phylogeny representing 1361 species. We aggregate species into lineages ranging from species level groups down to similar number of Plant Functional Types as often used in LSMs. We assessed the ability of Random Forest and Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis to discriminate across these different phylogenetic scales and determine the optimal number of lineages to classify. Although there are some temporal and spatial differences in our training data, our best approaches achieved moderate classification accuracy (Kappa > 0.65). Given an optimal number of lineages, we explored approaches to improve classifications including machine learning and unmixing approaches. This work suggests that lineage-based methods may be a promising way to leverage the huge amounts of data that will come from high resolution and high return interval hyperspectral data planned for the Surface Biology and Geology mission with sparsely sampled existing ground-based ecological data.

Hyperspectral↗
NASA NTRS2025

Rolling DICE to Advance Knowledge of Land-Atmosphere Interactions

The Diurnal Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (DICE) aims to explore the complex interactions between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer, which are generally not well understood and difficult to isolate in models. The project involves over 10 different models, combining expertise from both land surface and atmospheric boundary-layer modelling groups. A simple three-stage methodology is designed to assess land-atmosphere feedbacks. Stage 1: the individual components are assessed in isolation, driven and evaluated against observational data; stage 2: the impact of coupling is investigated; stage 3: the sensitivity of the stand-alone models to variations in driving data is explored. For this initial study, a three-day clear-sky period in the mid-west USA over, an assumed simple, predominantly grass surface was simulated using data from the CASES-99 field campaign. Key conclusions from the study include: (1) the memory of vegetation state within Land Surface Models (LSMs) needs attention; (2) the height of atmospheric forcing for LSMs is important, particularly for the nocturnal boundary layer, and this has implications for both observations and vertical resolution for atmospheric models; (3) land-atmosphere feedbacks reduce errors in simulated surface fluxes at the expense of the accuracy of the variables that the models are designed to simulate (e.g., temperature, humidity and wind speed); (4) problems remain in representing the stable boundary layer in atmospheric models; (5) the mixing of temperature and humidity within the boundary layer may need to be represented separately; (6) differences in daytime profiles of heat, moisture and momentum between models are mainly due to the way the models erode the inversion at the top of the boundary layer, rather than differences in the surface fluxes. Resultant variations in modelled boundary layer heights have a substantial impact on relative humidity and could partially explain variations in coupling strength between models in the GLACE experiment.

Martin Best↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, a process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Including representation of vegetation dynamics is expected to further amplify the model-related uncertainties in projected future changes in surface water and heat fluxes as well as soil moisture content. This is especially the case in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., northwestern North America and central North Asia) where the projected vegetation changes are uncertain and in the Tropics (e.g., the Amazon and Congo Basins) where dense vegetation exists. Finally, findings from this study highlight the importance of improving land surface model parameterizations related to soil and snow processes, as well as the importance of improving the accuracy of dynamic vegetation models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A multi‐variable framework for selecting WRF physics configurations at convection‐permitting scales: An Amazon wet‐season case study

Tropical convection over rainforests modulates atmospheric circulation and the energy and hydrological cycles across multiple scales. However, the scarcity of observations still limits our understanding of these processes. Although numerical models are utilized to investigate atmospheric physical processes, their performance depends on the choice of parameterizations and grid resolution. Here, in this work, we introduce and apply a multi‐variable, multi‐physics framework to evaluate and rank the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF–ARW) configurations at 1‐km resolution over the central Amazon during the wet season. A 48‐member ensemble combines three land‐surface models (LSMs), four planetary boundary layer (PBL), and four microphysics (MP) schemes. Model performance for seven convection‐related near‐surface and boundary‐layer variables is assessed using Taylor diagrams and the Taylor skill score (TSS), analysis of variance (ANOVA)‐based sensitivity metrics, and non‐parametric rank tests. We then construct a combined, weighted TSS to identify configurations that are comparatively robust across variables. Results showed that most configurations reproduce near‐surface temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and boundary‐layer height reasonably well, whereas humidity and rainfall remain challenging. LSM choice has the strongest impact on the surface fluxes and a secondary influence on near‐surface temperature and humidity, PBL schemes dominate boundary‐layer height, and MP schemes exert the largest control on rainfall. No single configuration is optimal for all variables, but the combination of Noah (LSM), Yonsei University (PBL), and Morrison (MP) emerges as the most robust configuration for this case, with the WRF single‐moment six‐class scheme (WSM6) providing a competitive, computationally cheaper MP alternative. The framework is general and can be applied to other regions, seasons, and convective regimes.

Amazon rainforest↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and Accurate Predictions of Total Energy for Solid Solution Alloys with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

We use graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs) to produce fast and accurate predictions of the total energy of solid solution binary alloys. GCNNs allow us to abstract the lattice structure of a solid material as a graph, whereby atoms are modeled as nodes and metallic bonds as edges. This representation naturally incorporates information about the structure of the material, thereby eliminating the need for computationally expensive data pre-processing which would be required with standard neural network (NN) approaches. We train GCNNs on ab-initio density functional theory (DFT) for copper-gold (CuAu) and iron-platinum (FePt) data that has been generated by running the LSMS-3 code, which implements a locally self-consistent multiple scattering method, on OLCF supercomputers Titan and Summit. GCNN outperforms the ab-initio DFT simulation by orders of magnitude in terms of computational time to produce the estimate of the total energy for a given atomic configuration of the lattice structure. We compare the predictive performance of GCNN models against a standard NN such as dense feedforward multi-layer perceptron (MLP) by using the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the predictive quality of the deep learning (DL) models. We find that the attainable accuracy of GCNNs is at least an order of magnitude better than that of the MLP.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano↗
DOE OSTI2025

Power-Capping Metric Evaluation for Improving Energy Efficiency in HPC Applications

With high-performance computing systems now running at exascale, optimizing power-scaling management and resource utilization has become more critical than ever. This paper explores runtime power-capping optimizations that leverage integrated CPU-GPU power management on architectures like the NVIDIA GH200 superchip. We evaluate energy-performance metrics that account for simultaneous CPU and GPU power-capping effects by using two complementary approaches: speedup-energy-delay and a Euclidean distance-based multi-objective optimization method. By targeting a mostly compute-bound exascale science application, the Locally Self-Consistent Multiple Scattering (LSMS), we explore challenging scenarios to identify potential opportunities for energy savings in exascale applications, and we recognize that even modest reductions in energy consumption can have significant overall impacts. Our results highlight how GPU task-specific dynamic power-cap adjustments combined with integrated CPU-GPU power steering can improve the energy utilization of certain GPU tasks, thereby laying the groundwork for future adaptive optimization strategies.

Patrou, Maria [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000339754638)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Simulations of Vegetation Dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau: Role of Atmospheric Forcing Data and Spatial Resolution

The efficacy of vegetation dynamics simulations in offline land surface models (LSMs) largely depends on the quality and spatial resolution of meteorological forcing data. In this study, the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Data (PMFD) and the high spatial resolution and upscaled China Meteorological Forcing Data (CMFD) were used to drive the Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (SSiB4/TRIFFID) and investigate how meteorological forcing datasets with different spatial resolutions affect simulations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), a region with complex topography and sparse observations. By comparing the monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Gross Primary Production (GPP) against observations, we found that SSiB4/TRIFFID driven by upscaled CMFD improved the performance in simulating the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP over the TP, reducing RMSEs by 24.3% and 20.5%, respectively. The multi-year averaged GPP decreased from 364.68 gC m –2 yr –1 to 241.21 gC m –2 yr –1 with the percentage bias dropping from 50.2% to –1.7%. When using the high spatial resolution CMFD, the RMSEs of the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP simulations were further reduced by 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively. This study highlights the importance of more realistic and high-resolution forcing data in simulating vegetation growth and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere over the TP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of the locally self-consistent embedding approach to the Anderson model with non-uniform random distributions

Highlights: • Typical Medium Theory (TMT) for the Anderson Localization. • Locally Self-Consistent Multiple Scattering Method (LSMS) for Random Disordered Systems. • Linear Scaling Computational Method for Random Disordered Systems. We apply the recently developed embedding scheme for the locally self-consistent method to random disorder electrons systems. The method is based on the locally self-consistent multiple scattering theory and the typical medium theory. The locally self-consistent multiple scattering theory divides a system into many small designated local interaction zones. The subsystem within each local interaction zone is embedded in a self-consistent field from the typical medium theory. This approximation allows the study of random systems with large numbers of sites. We present results for the three dimensional Anderson model with different random disorder potential distributions. Using the typical density of states as an indicator of Anderson localization, we find that the method can capture the localization for commonly studied disorder potentials. These include the uniform distribution, the Gaussian distribution, and even the unbounded Cauchy distribution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗
DOE OSTI2014

Modeling and Characterization of the Magnetocaloric Effect in Ni2MnGa Materials

Magnetic shape memory alloys have great promise as magneto-caloric effect refrigerant materials due to their combined magnetic and structural transitions. Computational and experimental research is reported on the Ni2MnGa material system. The magnetic states of this system are explored using the Wang-Landau statistical approach in conjunction with the Locally Self-consistent Multiple-Scattering method. The effects of alloying agents on the transition temperatures of the Ni2MnGa alloy are investigated using differential scanning calorimetry and superconducting quantum interference device. Experiments are performed at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to observe the structural and magnetic phase transformations.

magneto caloric↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of multi-sensor land data assimilation on river discharge estimation

River discharge is one of the most critical renewable water resources. Accurately estimating river discharge with land surface models (LSMs) remains challenging due to the difficulty in estimating land water storages such as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater. While data assimilation (DA) ingesting optical, microwave, and gravity measurements from space can help constrain theses storage states, its impacts on runoff and eventually river discharge are not fully understood. In this study, by taking advantage of recently published land DA results that jointly assimilate eight different combinations of observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), we quantify to what degree multi-sensor land DA improves the river discharge simulation skills over 40 global river basins, and investigate the complementary strengths of different satellite measurements on river discharge. To be more specific, river discharge is updated by feeding gridded runoff from the eight multi-sensor DA simulations into a vector-based river routing model named the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID). Our modeling results, including 7-year simulations at 177,458 river reaches globally, are used to study the seasonal to interannual variability of river discharge. It is found that assimilating GRACE has the greatest impact on global runoff patterns, leading to the most pronounced improvements in spatial river discharge in the middle and high latitudes with the R 2 increased by 0.16. The seasonal variation of spatial discharge is most skillful during the boreal summer. However, our evaluation also shows model and DA still struggle to generate reasonable variability and averaged discharge over permafrost regions. Finally, by assessing how different satellites add value to discharge forecasts, this study paves the way for more advanced multi-sensor satellite data assimilation to predict the terrestrial hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. Here, to further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗