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Mission Design and Analysis for Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) approximately 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total delta V of approximately 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

near- Earth object

Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

Asteroid

Looking to the Future: A Call to Action for Advanced GNC Algorithm Verification and Validation

Future space systems will rely on autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) functions to efficiently manage safe and precise self-directed operations in uncertain complex environments. Fundamentally, the GNC system plays a key role in mission performance and safety because it computes the ideal trajectory (Guidance), determines the actual trajectory (Navigation), and executes the ideal trajectory (Control) of a vehicle’s position and attitude. Our current GNC systems are highly automated and already have a high degree of complexity. As missions become more ambitious, GNC systems for launch vehicles and space platforms (e.g., spacecraft, probes, and landers) will require higher levels of performance and autonomous operation than previously encountered, for example, this includes GNC for optimizing aerodynamic and/or propulsion performance during planetary entry. This GNC Verification and Validation (V&V) paper highlights concerns with what undoubtedly will be a trend towards increased complexity as fully autonomous GNC systems are developed for future space missions. Clearly, complex GNC systems pose challenges in the prelaunch V&V phase, which is a relatively expensive part of a mission’s life cycle. Essentially the V&V phase is focused on checking that the system effectively meets all the design and operational requirements for the mission. The authors of this paper (i.e., the Inter-Agency Working Group of GNC subject matter experts) focused on this fundamental question over the past few years: Will the GNC engineering community of practice be sufficiently prepared to perform the necessary V&V on evolving GNC architectures that are driven by very demanding requirements for autonomy, resiliency, reconfigurability, adaptability, and mission cost-benefit balance? It is the viewpoint of our Inter-Agency team that the GNC V&V approaches and processes needed to address the next generation of complex GNC systems, which likely will employ various forms of modern GNC technology, are not currently established to the level the community will need in the future. While researchers and practitioners have made some progress in developing new GNC V&V methods for modern GNC systems, a good deal of work remains to be done to codify such methods in a comprehensive and systematic manner. Thus, the Inter-Agency team’s partner organizations [the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the European Space Agency (ESA), the National Centre for Space Studies (CNES), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the French Aerospace Lab (ONERA), and ISAE-SUPAERO] have conducted preliminary investigations into advancing GNC V&V techniques, which resulted in the identification of the need for education, new V&V tools, and benchmark problems for the GNC community. The necessary proactive steps to be taken to meet the challenges and fill the gaps in GNC V&V are summarized in this paper. The first steps include identifying advanced analysis tools, developing a GNC V&V roadmap, and expanding education and training programs for GNC practitioners. This paper is a call to action and proposes a comprehensive set of recommended actions for all our stakeholders: space agencies, researchers, and industry.

Samir Bennani

Design of Launch Abort System Thrust Profile and Concept of Operations

This paper describes how the Abort Motor thrust profile has been tailored and how optimizing the Concept of Operations on the Launch Abort System (LAS) of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) aides in getting the crew safely away from a failed Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Unlike the passive nature of the Apollo system, the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle will be actively controlled, giving the program a more robust abort system with a higher probability of crew survival for an abort at all points throughout the CLV trajectory. By optimizing the concept of operations and thrust profile the Orion program will be able to take full advantage of the active Orion LAS. Discussion will involve an overview of the development of the abort motor thrust profile and the current abort concept of operations as well as their effects on the performance of LAS aborts. Pad Abort (for performance) and Maximum Drag (for separation from the Launch Vehicle) are the two points that dictate the required thrust and shape of the thrust profile. The results in this paper show that 95% success of all performance requirements is not currently met for Pad Abort. Future improvements to the current parachute sequence and other potential changes will mitigate the current problems, and meet abort performance requirements.

Litton, Daniel

Airframe Integration Trade Studies for a Reusable Launch Vehicle

Future launch vehicles must be lightweight, fully reusable and easily maintained if low-cost access to space is to be achieved. The goal of achieving an economically viable Single-Stage-to-Orbit (SSTO) Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) is not easily achieved and success will depend to a large extent on having an integrated and optimized total system. A series of trade studies were performed to meet three objectives. First, to provide structural weights and parametric weight equations as inputs to configuration-level trade studies. Second, to identify, assess and quantify major weight drivers for the RLV airframe. Third, using information on major weight drivers, and considering the RLV as an integrated thermal structure (composed of thrust structures, tanks, thermal protection system, insulation and control surfaces), identify and assess new and innovative approaches or concepts that have the potential for either reducing airframe weight, improving operability, and/or reducing cost.

Dorsey, John T.

Airborne Simulation of Launch Vehicle Dynamics

In this paper we present a technique for approximating the short-period dynamics of an exploration-class launch vehicle during flight test with a high-performance surrogate aircraft in relatively benign endoatmospheric flight conditions. The surrogate vehicle relies upon a nonlinear dynamic inversion scheme with proportional-integral feedback to drive a subset of the aircraft states into coincidence with the states of a time-varying reference model that simulates the unstable rigid body dynamics, servodynamics, and parasitic elastic and sloshing dynamics of the launch vehicle. The surrogate aircraft flies a constant pitch rate trajectory to approximate the boost phase gravity-turn ascent, and the aircraft's closed-loop bandwidth is sufficient to simulate the launch vehicle's fundamental lateral bending and sloshing modes by exciting the rigid body dynamics of the aircraft. A novel control allocation scheme is employed to utilize the aircraft's relatively fast control effectors in inducing various failure modes for the purposes of evaluating control system performance. Sufficient dynamic similarity is achieved such that the control system under evaluation is optimized for the full-scale vehicle with no changes to its parameters, and pilot-control system interaction studies can be performed to characterize the effects of guidance takeover during boost. High-fidelity simulation and flight test results are presented that demonstrate the efficacy of the design in simulating the Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle dynamics using NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed (FAST), a modified F/A-18 airplane, over a range of scenarios designed to stress the SLS's adaptive augmenting control (AAC) algorithm.

Gilligan, Eric T.

Extreme-Temperature Carbon- and Ceramic-Matrix Composite Nozzle Extensions for Liquid Rocket Engines

The United States (US) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and its US industry partners are developing extreme-temperature composite nozzle extensions for a variety of cryogenic liquid rocket engine propulsion systems. Applications under consideration at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) include launch vehicle (upper stage), in-space, and lunar lander descent/ascent propulsion systems. Composite material systems of interest include carbon-carbon (C-C) and carbon/silicon-carbide (C-SiC) composites, as well as modified versions of such composites (coatings, mixed matrices, oxidation inhibitors, etc.). Missions addressed include access to low Earth orbit, the lunar surface, and more distant destinations. Cryogenic upper-stage and in-space liquid rocket engines are optimized for performance through the use of high area ratio nozzles to fully expand combustion gases to low exit pressures, increasing exhaust velocities. As a result of the large size of such nozzles, and the related engine performance requirements, composite nozzle extensions are being considered to reduce mass impacts. Currently, metallic and foreign composite nozzle extensions used on the Atlas V, Delta IV, Falcon 9, and Ariane 5 launch vehicles represent the state-of-the-art. Such extensions are limited to use at or slightly above 2000°F (1093°C). Materials under development by MSFC and its industry partners have the potential to operate at temperatures up to (or above) 4250°F (2343°C). Marshall Space Flight Center efforts are aimed at (a) further developing the technology and databases needed to enable the use of composite nozzle extensions on cryogenic liquid rocket engines, (b) developing and demonstrating low-cost capabilities for testing and qualifying such nozzle extensions, and (c) advancing the US domestic supply chain for nozzle extensions. Through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) Programs, low-level internal MSFC research projects, and teaming arrangements with domestic industry partners, composite material design, development, hot-fire test, and evaluation efforts are progressing. Hot- fire engine tests of subscale hardware have been conducted using oxygen/hydrogen (LOX/H2), oxygen/methane (LOX/CH4), and oxygen/kerosene (LOX/RP-1) propellants. These engine tests at MSFC have enabled the evaluation of both heritage and state-of-the-art material systems, demonstrating the initial capabilities of the extreme temperature materials and their fabrication methods. Recent, ongoing, and potential future work supporting cryogenic propulsion systems development will be presented. The composite nozzle extension technology and test capabilities being developed are intended to support both NASA and US Department of Defense requirements, as well as those of the broader Commercial Space industry.

Valentine, Peter G.

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Launch Vehicle

Dual throat engine design for a SSTO launch vehicle

A propulsion system analysis of a dual fuel, dual throat engine for launch vehicle application was conducted. Basic dual throat engine characterization data are presented to allow vehicle optimization studies to be conducted. A preliminary baseline engine system was defined. Dual throat engine performance, envelope, and weight parametric data were generated over the parametric range of thrust from 890 to 8896 KN (200K to 2M lb-force), chamber pressure from 6.89 million to 34.5 million N/sq m (1000 to 5000 psia) thrust ratio from 1.2 to 5, and a range of mixture ratios for the two tripropellant combinations: LO2/RP-1 + LH2 and LO2/LCH4 + LH2. The results of the study indicate that the dual fuel dual throat engine is a viable single stage to orbit candidate.

Obrien, C. J.

Optimal control theory determination of feasible return-to-launch-site aborts for the HL-20 Personnel Launch System vehicle

The personnel launch system (PLS) being studied by NASA is a system to complement the space shuttle and provide alternative access to space. The PLS consists of a manned spacecraft launched by an expendable launch vehicle (ELV). A candidate for the manned spacecraft is the HL-20 lifting body. In the event of an ELV malfunction during the initial portion of the ascent trajectory, the HL-20 will separate from the rocket and perform an unpowered return to launch site (RTLS) abort. This work details an investigation, using optimal control theory, of the RTLS abort scenario. The objective of the optimization was to maximize final altitude. With final altitude as the cost function, the feasibility of an RTLS abort at different times during the ascent was determined. The method of differential inclusions was used to determine the optimal state trajectories, and the optimal controls were then calculated from the optimal states and state rates.

Dutton, Kevin E.

Fairing Separation Analysis Using SepTOOL

This document describes the relevant equations programmed in spreadsheet software, SepTOOL, developed by ZIN Technologies, Inc. (ZIN) to determine the separation clearance between a launch vehicle payload fairing and remaining stages. The software uses closed form rigid body dynamic solutions of the vehicle in combination with flexible body dynamics of the fairing, which is obtained from flexible body dynamic analysis or from test data, and superimposes the two results to obtain minimum separation clearance for any given set of flight trajectory conditions. Using closed form solutions allows SepTOOL to perform separation calculations several orders of magnitude faster compared to numerical methods which allows users to perform real time parameter studies. Moreover, SepTOOL can optimize vehicle performance to minimize separation clearance. This tool can evaluate various shapes and sizes of fairings along with different vehicle configurations and trajectories. These geometries and parameters are inputted in a user friendly interface. Although the software was specifically developed for evaluating the separation clearance of launch vehicle payload fairings, separation dynamics of other launch vehicle components can be evaluated provided that aerodynamic loads acting on the vehicle during the separation event are negligible. This document describes the development of SepTOOL providing analytical procedure and theoretical equations whose implementation of these equations is not disclosed. Realistic examples are presented, and the results are verified with ADAMS (MSC Software Corporation) simulations. It should be noted that SepTOOL is a preliminary separation clearance assessment software for payload fairings and should not be used for final clearance analysis.

fairings

Monte Carlo analysis of the Titan III/Transfer Orbit Stage guidance system for the Mars Observer mission

An important part of space launch vehicle mission planning for a planetary mission is the integrated analysis of guidance and performance dispersions for both booster and upper stage vehicles. For the Mars Observer mission, an integrated trajectory analysis was used to maximize the scientific payload and to minimize injection errors by optimizing the energy management of both vehicles. This was accomplished by designing the Titan III booster vehicle to inject into a hyperbolic departure plane, and the Transfer Orbit Stage (TOS) to correct any booster dispersions. An integrated Monte Carlo analysis of the performance and guidance dispersions of both vehicles provided sensitivities, an evaluation of their guidance schemes and an injection error covariance matrix. The polynomial guidance schemes used for the Titan III variable flight azimuth computations and the TOS solid rocket motor ignition time and burn direction derivations accounted for a wide variation of launch times, performance dispersions, and target conditions. The Mars Observer spacecraft was launched on 25 September 1992 on the Titan III/TOS vehicle. The post flight analysis indicated that a near perfect park orbit injection was achieved, followed by a trans-Mars injection with less than 2sigma errors.

Bell, Stephen C.

Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) Development Risk Communication

There are clear advantages of development of a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) for a crewed mission to Mars. NTR for in-space propulsion enables more ambitious space missions by providing high thrust at high specific impulse (approximately 900 sec) that is 2 times the best theoretical performance possible for chemical rockets. Missions can be optimized for maximum payload capability to take more payload with reduced total mass to orbit; saving cost on reduction of the number of launch vehicles needed. Or missions can be optimized to minimize trip time significantly to reduce the deep space radiation exposure to the crew. NTR propulsion technology is a game changer for space exploration. However, "NUCLEAR" is a word that is feared and vilified by some groups and the hostility towards development of any nuclear systems can meet great opposition by the public as well as from national leaders and people in authority. Communication of nuclear safety will be critical to the success of the development of the NTR. Why is there a fear of nuclear? A bomb that can level a city is a scary weapon. The first and only times the Nuclear Bomb was used in a war was on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War 2. The "Little Boy" atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945 and the "Fat Man" on Nagasaki 3 days later on August 9th. Within the first 4 months of bombings, 90- 166 thousand people died in Hiroshima and 60-80 thousand died in Nagasaki. It is important to note for comparison that over 500 thousand people died and 5 million made homeless due to strategic bombing (approximately 150 thousand tons) of Japanese cities and war assets with conventional non-nuclear weapons between 1942- 1945. A major bombing campaign of "firebombing" of Tokyo called "Operation Meetinghouse" on March 9 and 10 consisting of 334 B-29's dropped approximately1,700 tons of bombs around 16 square mile area and over 100 thousand people have been estimated to have died. The declaration of death is very clear for conventional weapons and then the declaration of death due to radiation becomes vague and unclear. This may have been due to people mis-understanding the dangers and effects of radiation when assessing the damage and harm to people initially, but it is also become insidious when expressing opposition to nuclear energy. A nuclear radiation accident can be scary due to the power involved and the fear of radiation release. The International Atomic Energy Agency defines a nuclear and radiation accident a "an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility." There have been 3 commercial nuclear reactor accidents (Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima) that stand out to the public and much of the information about the result and impact to workers, environment, and public can be misleading. Often information is presented without clear correlation with radiation and other pertinent information is left out presenting a very scary situation to affect the emotions of the reader. A very boring but "critically acclaimed" movie was made in 1979 called "The China Syndrome" starring Jane Fonda and Jack Lemmon. The film was released on March 16, 1979, 12 days before the 3-Mile Island nuclear accident in Pennsylvania. The basis from the movie was from a few nuclear plant incidents and in particular, the Brown's Ferry Alabama Power Plant fire. In one scene from the movie, a physicist Dr. Elliott Lowell played by Donald Hotton states that a China Syndrome event would make "an area the size of Pennsylvania" permanently uninhabitable. Real serious nuclear incidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima are often sited to make people fear the consequences of using nuclear power. However, the consequences are at best poorly communicated and at worst fictitiously inflated to instigate social unrest against nuclear power. There is an article being circulated on Facebook with a title "28 Signs that the (US) West Coast is being absolutely fried with nuclear radiation from Fukushima" which focus on mis-information and fear mongering. Nuclear power and NTR are powerful resources that can open many doors for future prosperity and capability. With great power comes great responsibility. Radiation and its effects need to be better understood, quantified, and communicated. A human mission to mars has its own risks of deep space radiation and is considered a considerable risk at 400 milli-Sieverts per year in deep space and 245 milli-Sieverts per year on the surface of Mars as measured by the Mars Curiosity mission. Although these quantities of ionizing radiation are within the astronaut career limit, it exceeds the yearly average amounts of ionizing radiation. Astronaut crews have experienced these levels of radiation before, but for durations shorter than a year, and a mission to Mars could possibly be 3 years in length. There is also evidence that people can comfortably handle higher levels of ionizing radiation where the radiation occurs naturally like Ramsar, Iran when people can experience 270 milli-Sieverts per year. A risk posture that the development, test, and flight of an NTR will meet opposition from groups who oppose nuclear energy must be likely and the impact can be sever to the effort. Active risk mitigation must be taken for an NTR full-scale development project. The NTR design must take into account safety for transport and off nominal conditions. Nuclear fuel element must consider containment of fission products and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) that may meet less opposition should be considered for safety and security reasons. Even though testing was conducted on Rover/NERVA safely and successfully in the 60's with exhaust sent heavenward in to open air, modern testing of NTR must consider full containment and no release of ionizing radiation to the public and must meet the current requirement of no more than 0.1 milli-Sieverts per year to the public. 0.1 milli-Sieverts is equivalent to eating one banana or a 20 hour plane flight. Good communication with the public and regulatory agencies will be essential to show that all effort is applied toward protection to the public and astronauts. The inspiring endeavor to put humans on Mars to study the planet, search for life, and learn more about this Solar System will be full of risks but it will be worth it. NTR will be worth the development effort if it allows humans to explore our Solar System.

Kim, Tony

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Development Risks

There are clear advantages of development of a Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) for a crewed mission to Mars. NTP for in-space propulsion enables more ambitious space missions by providing high thrust at high specific impulse ((is) approximately 900 sec) that is 2 times the best theoretical performance possible for chemical rockets. Missions can be optimized for maximum payload capability to take more payload with reduced total mass to orbit; saving cost on reduction of the number of launch vehicles needed. Or missions can be optimized to minimize trip time significantly to reduce the deep space radiation exposure to the crew. NTR propulsion technology is a game changer for space exploration to Mars and beyond. However, 'NUCLEAR' is a word that is feared and vilified by some groups and the hostility towards development of any nuclear systems can meet great opposition by the public as well as from national leaders and people in authority. The public often associates the 'nuclear' word with weapons of mass destruction. The development NTP is at risk due to unwarranted public fears and clear honest communication of nuclear safety will be critical to the success of the development of the NTP technology. Reducing cost to NTP development is critical to its acceptance and funding. In the past, highly inflated cost estimates of a full-scale development nuclear engine due to Category I nuclear security requirements and costly regulatory requirements have put the NTP technology as a low priority. Innovative approaches utilizing low enriched uranium (LEU). Even though NTP can be a small source of radiation to the crew, NTP can facilitate significant reduction of crew exposure to solar and cosmic radiation by reducing trip times by 3-4 months. Current Human Mars Mission (HMM) trajectories with conventional propulsion systems and fuel-efficient transfer orbits exceed astronaut radiation exposure limits. Utilizing extra propellant from one additional SLS launch and available energy in the NTP fuel, HMM radiation exposure can be reduced significantly.

Kim, Tony

Optimal return-to-launchsite abort trajectories for an HL-20 Personnel Launch System vehicle

The Personnel Launch System (PLS) being studied by NASA is a system to complement the Space Shuttle and provide alternative access to space. The PLS consists of a manned spacecraft launched by an expendable launch vehicle (ELV). A candidate for the manned spacecraft is the HL-20 lifting body. In the event of an ELV malfunction during the initial portion of the ascent trajectory, the HL-20 will separate from the rocket and perform an unpowered return-to-launchsite (RTLS) abort. This paper describes an investigation of the RTLS abort scenario using optimal control theory. The objective of the abort trajectory is to maximize final altitude at a point near the runway. The assumption is then made that there exists a control history to steer the vehicle to any final altitude lower than the final optimal altitude. With this selection of cost function, and with this assumption, the feasibility of an RTLS abort at different times along the ascent trajectory can be determined. The method of differential inclusions, which allows the determination of optimal states and eliminates the need for determining the optimal controls, is used to determine the optimal trajectories.

Dutton, Kevin E.

Optimal air-breathing launch vehicle design

A generalized two-point boundary problem methodology, similar to techniques used in deterministic optimal control studies, is applied to the design and flight analysis of a two-stage air-breathing launch vehicle. Simultaneous consideration is given to configuration and trajectory by treating geometry, dynamic discontinuities, and time-dependent flight variables all as controls to be optimized with respect to a single mathematical performance measure. While minimizing fuel consumption, inequality constraints are applied to dynamic pressure and specific force. The optimal system fuel consumption and staging Mach number are found to vary little with changes in the inequality constraints due to substantial geometry and trajectory adjustments. Staging, from an air-breathing first stage to a rocket-powered second stage, consistently occurs near Mach 3.5. The dynamic pressure bound has its most pronounced effects on vehicle geometry, particularly the air-breathing propulsion inlet area, and on the first-stage altitude profile. The specific force has its greatest influence on the second-stage thrust history.

Hattis, P. D.

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Merrill, R. Gabe

SFDT-1 Camera Pointing and Sun-Exposure Analysis and Flight Performance

The Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT) vehicle was developed to advance and test technologies of NASA's Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) Technology Demonstration Mission. The first flight test (SFDT-1) occurred on June 28, 2014. In order to optimize the usefulness of the camera data, analysis was performed to optimize parachute visibility in the camera field of view during deployment and inflation and to determine the probability of sun-exposure issues with the cameras given the vehicle heading and launch time. This paper documents the analysis, results and comparison with flight video of SFDT-1.

White, Joseph