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Total Lightning Activity Associated with Tornadic Storms

Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps," that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Lightning: Nature's Probe of Severe Weather for Research and Operations

Lightning, the energetic and broadband electrical discharge produced by thunderstorms, provides a natural remote sensing signal for the study of severe storms and related phenomena on global, regional and local scales. Using this strong signal- one of nature's own probes of severe weather -lightning measurements prove to be straightforward and take advantage of a variety of measurement techniques that have advanced considerably in recent years. We briefly review some of the leading lightning detection systems including satellite-based optical detectors such as the Lightning Imaging Sensor, and ground-based radio frequency systems such as Vaisala's National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), long range lightning detection systems, and the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) networks. In addition, we examine some of the exciting new research results and operational capabilities (e.g., shortened tornado warning lead times) derived from these observations. Finally we look forward to the next measurement advance - lightning observations from geostationary orbit.

Blakeslee, R.J.↗

Lightning Tracking Tool for Assessment of Total Cloud Lightning within AWIPS II

Total lightning (intra‐cloud and cloud‐to‐ground) has been widely researched and shown to be a valuable tool to aid real‐time warning forecasters in the assessment of severe weather potential of convective storms. The trend of total lightning has been related to the strength of a storm's updraft. Therefore a rapid increase in total lightning signifies the strengthening of the parent thunderstorm. The assessment of severe weather potential occurs in a time limited environment and therefore constrains the use of total lightning. A tool has been developed at NASA's Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center to assist in quickly analyzing the total lightning signature of multiple storms. The development of this tool comes as a direct result of forecaster feedback from numerous assessments requesting a real‐time display of the time series of total lightning. This tool also takes advantage of the new architecture available within the AWIPS II environment. SPoRT's lightning tracking tool has been tested in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Program and significant changes have been made based on the feedback. In addition to the updates in response to the HWT assessment, the lightning tracking tool may also be extended to incorporate other requested displays, such as the intra‐cloud to cloud‐to‐ground ratio as well as incorporate the lightning jump algorithm.

Burks, Jason E.↗

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida: Phase IV

The threat of lightning is a daily concern during the warm season in Florida. Research has revealed distinct spatial and temporal distributions of lightning occurrence that are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric flow regimes. Previously, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) calculated the gridded lightning climatologies based on seven flow regimes over Florida for 1-, 3- and 6-hr intervals in 5-, 10-,20-, and 30-NM diameter range rings around the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) and eight other airfields in the National Weather Service in Melbourne (NWS MLB) county warning area (CWA). In this update to the work, the AMU recalculated the lightning climatologies for using individual lightning strike data to improve the accuracy of the climatologies. The AMU included all data regardless of flow regime as one of the stratifications, added monthly stratifications, added three years of data to the period of record and used modified flow regimes based work from the AMU's Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool, Phase II. The AMU made changes so the 5- and 10-NM radius range rings are consistent with the aviation forecast requirements at NWS MLB, while the 20- and 30-NM radius range rings at the SLF assist the Spaceflight Meteorology Group in making forecasts for weather Flight Rule violations during Shuttle landings. The AMU also updated the graphical user interface with the new data.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida: Phase IV: Central Florida Flow Regime Based Climatologies of Lightning Probabilities

The threat of lightning is a daily concern during the warm season in Florida. Research has revealed distinct spatial and temporal distributions of lightning occurrence that are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric flow regimes. Previously, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) calculated the gridded lightning climatologies based on seven flow regimes over Florida for 1-, 3- and 6-hr intervals in 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-NM diameter range rings around the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) and eight other airfields in the National Weather Service in Melbourne (NWS MLB) county warning area (CWA). In this update to the work, the AMU recalculated the lightning climatologies for using individual lightning strike data to improve the accuracy of the climatologies. The AMU included all data regardless of flow regime as one of the stratifications, added monthly stratifications, added three years of data to the period of record and used modified flow regimes based work from the AMU's Objective Lightning Probability Forecast Tool, Phase II. The AMU made changes so the 5- and 10-NM radius range rings are consistent with the aviation forecast requirements at NWS MLB, while the 20- and 30-NM radius range rings at the SLF assist the Spaceflight Meteorology Group in making forecasts for weather Flight Rule violations during Shuttle landings. The AMU also updated the graphical user interface with the new data.

Bauman, William H., III↗

The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) for GOES-R: A New Operational Capability to Improve Storm Forecasts and Warnings

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral (3x), spatial (4x), and temporal (5x) resolution for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The GLM, an optical transient detector and imager operating in the near-IR at 777.4 nm will map all (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lighting flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data are being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate Day-1 user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

An Analysis of Operational Total Lightning Data During Long-Track Tornadoes

The 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak brought three distinct waves of tornadic thunderstorms to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia, striking the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and southern Tennessee particularly hard. A total of 42 tornado paths were surveyed across the fourteen county area covered by the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. Ten of these tornadoes were on the ground for at least 20 miles, two had total path lengths over 130 miles, and six tornadoes were classified as violent (EF-4 or EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale). Many of these tornadoes occurred within the domain of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), a ground-based total lightning detection network owned and operated by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Since 2003, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center has supplied data from NALMA in real time to NWS forecast offices in Huntsville, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, Birmingham, and Nashville. Previous research has documented the utility of total lightning information in predicting tornadogenesis, particularly when combined with other remote sensing tools. Basic warning decision-making during events such as 27 April is not the most difficult part of the process; instead, the focus of warning meteorologists shifts to looking for changes in intensity or possible particularly dangerous situations, since doppler radar velocity data often cannot distinguish between weak and strong tornadoes. To that end, this research attempts to determine if any correlation exists between flash densities of the longest-tracked tornadoes over time, and the surveyed wind speeds of the tornadoes. The long-track EF-5 tornado which struck the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, and Tanner communities in north Alabama was the primary focus of this research due to its intensity and extended life cycle. However, not all tornadoes were available for total lightning analysis due to widespread power outages which negatively affected the detection efficiency and operation of the NALMA. Therefore, additional storms from 2008-2010 with tracks of at least 20 miles were analyzed for comparison purposes.

Carcione, Brian C.↗

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Solakiewiz, Richard↗

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Lightning location system supervising Swedish power transmission network

For electric utilities, the ability to prevent or minimize lightning damage on personnel and power systems is of great importance. Therefore, the Swedish State Power Board, has been using data since 1983 from a nationwide lightning location system (LLS) for accurately locating lightning ground strikes. Lightning data is distributed and presented on color graphic displays at regional power network control centers as well as at the national power system control center for optimal data use. The main objectives for use of LLS data are: supervising the power system for optimal and safe use of the transmission and generating capacity during periods of thunderstorms; warning service to maintenance and service crews at power line and substations to end operations hazardous when lightning; rapid positioning of emergency crews to locate network damage at areas of detected lightning; and post analysis of power outages and transmission faults in relation to lightning, using archived lightning data for determination of appropriate design and insulation levels of equipment. Staff have found LLS data useful and economically justified since the availability of power system has increased as well as level of personnel safety.

Melin, Stefan A.↗

Meteorological Monitoring And Warning Computer Network

Meteorological monitoring system (MMS) computer network tracks weather conditions and issues warnings when weather hazards are about to occur. Receives data from such meteorological instruments as wind sensors on towers and lightning detectors, and compares data with weather restrictions specified for outdoor activities. If weather violates restriction, network generates audible and visible alarms to alert people involved in activity. Also displays weather and toxic diffusion data and disseminates weather forecasts, advisories, and warnings to workstations.

Evans, Randolph J.↗

Range estimation techniques in single-station thunderstorm warning sensors based upon gated, wideband, magnetic direction finder technology

Gated, wideband, magnetic direction finders (DFs) were originally designed to measure the bearing of cloud-to-ground lightning relative to the sensor. A recent addition to this device uses proprietary waveform discrimination logic to select return stroke signatures and certain range dependent features in the waveform to provide an estimate of range of flashes within 50 kms. The enhanced ranging techniques are discussed which were designed and developed for use in single station thunderstorm warning sensor. Included are the results of on-going evaluations being conducted under a variety of meteorological and geographic conditions.

Pifer, Alburt E.↗

Satellite Proving Ground for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The key mission of the Satellite Proving Ground is to demonstrate new satellite observing data, products and capabilities in the operational environment to be ready on Day 1 to use the GOES-R suite of measurements. Algorithms, tools, and techniques must be tested, validated, and assessed by end users for their utility before they are finalized and incorporated into forecast operations. The GOES-R Proving Ground for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) focuses on evaluating how the infusion of the new technology, algorithms, decision aids, or tailored products integrate with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks; nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing forecasts and warning products. Additionally, the testing concept fosters operation and development staff interactions which will improve training materials and support documentation development. Real-time proxy total lightning data from regional VHF lightning mapping arrays (LMA) in Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma, Cape Canaveral Florida, and the Washington, DC Greater Metropolitan Area are the cornerstone for the GLM Proving Ground. The proxy data will simulate the 8 km Event, Group and Flash data that will be generated by GLM. Tailored products such as total flash density at 1-2 minute intervals will be provided for display in AWIPS-2 to select NWS forecast offices and national centers such as the Storm Prediction Center. Additional temporal / spatial combinations are being investigated in coordination with operational needs and case-study proxy data and prototype visualizations may also be generated from the NASA heritage Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector data. End users will provide feedback on the utility of products in their operational environment, identify use cases and spatial/temporal scales of interest, and provide feedback to the developers for adjusted or new products.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA): A Network Overview

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is s a 3-D VHF regional lightning detection system that provides on-orbit algorithm validation and instrument performance assessments for the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor, as well as information on storm kinematics and updraft evolution that offers the potential to improve severe storm warning lead time by up t o 50% and decrease te false alarm r a t e ( for non-tornado producing storms). In support of this latter function, the LMA serves as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. The LMA, which became operational i n November 2001, consists of VHF receivers deployed across northern Alabama and a base station located at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC), which is on t h e campus of the University of Alabama in Huntsville. The LMA system locates the sources of impulsive VHF radio signals s from lightning by accurately measuring the time that the signals aririve at the different receiving stations. Each station's records the magnitude and time of the peak lightning radiation signal in successive 80 ms intervals within a local unused television channel (channel 5, 76-82 MHz in our case ) . Typically hundreds of sources per flash can be reconstructed, which i n t u r n produces accurate 3-dimensional lightning image maps (nominally <50 m error within 150 la. range). The data are transmitted back t o a base station using 2.4 GHz wireless Ethernet data links and directional parabolic grid antennas. There are four repeaters in the network topology and the links have an effective data throughput rate ranging from 600 kbits s -1 t o 1.5 %its s -1. This presentation provides an overview of t h e North Alabama network, the data processing (both real-time and post processing) and network statistics.

Blakeslee, R. J.↗

Assessing Operational Total Lightning Visualization Products

In May 2003, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program successfully provided total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Huntsville, Alabama. The major accomplishment was providing the observations in real-time to the NWS in the native Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) decision support system. Within days, the NALMA data were used to issue a tornado warning initiating seven years of ongoing support to the NWS' severe weather and situational awareness operations. With this success, SPoRT now provides real-time NALMA data to five forecast offices as well as working to transition data from total lightning networks at Kennedy Space Center and the White Sands Missile Range to the surrounding NWS offices. The only NALMA product that has been transitioned to SPoRT's partner NWS offices is the source density product, available at a 2 km resolution in 2 min intervals. However, discussions with users of total lightning data from other networks have shown that other products are available, ranging from spatial and temporal variations of the source density product to the creation of a flash extent density. SPoRT and the Huntsville, Alabama NWS are evaluating the utility of these variations as this has not been addressed since the initial transition in 2003. This preliminary analysis will focus on what products will best support the operational warning decision process. Data from 19 April 2009 are analyzed. On this day, severe thunderstorms formed ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread severe weather was observed, primarily south of the Tennessee River with multiple, weak tornadoes, numerous severe hail reports, and wind. This preliminary analysis is the first step in evaluation which product(s) are best suited for operations. The ultimate goal is selecting a single product for use with all total lightning networks to streamline training and science sharing.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)

The Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring network (STORMnet) became operational in 2001 as a test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the severe and hazardous weather forecasting and warning process. STORMnet is collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, emergency managers and other partners. STORMnet integrates total lightning observations from a ten-station 3-D VHF regional lightning mapping array, the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), real-time regional NEXRAD Doppler radar, satellite visible and infrared imagers, and a mobile atmospheric profiling system to characterize storms and their evolution. The storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display (LISDAD II), a distributed processing system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of north Alabama and Tennessee, a region of the southeastern U.S. well known for abundant severe weather.

Goodman, S. J.↗

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Results and Future Prospects

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather and the warning decision-making process. The LMA project is a collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs), emergency managers, and other partners. The time rate-of-change of storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD II) system, initially developed in T997 through a collaboration among NASA/MSFC, MIT/Lincoln Lab and the Melbourne, FL WFO. LISDAD II is now a distributed decision support system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of the southeastern U.S. Since the inauguration of the LMA there has been an abundance of severe weather. During 23-24 November 2001, a major tornado outbreak was monitored by LMA in its first data acquisition effort (36 tornadoes in Alabama). Since that time the LMA has collected a vast amount of data on hailstorms and damaging wind events, non-tornadic supercells, and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. In this paper we provide an overview of LMA observations and discuss future prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather.

Goodman, S. J.↗