SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Linear regression”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Probing Signal-Based Inertia and Frequency Response Estimation for Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources

Power system inertia is the inherent capability of a power system to resist changes in its frequency during disturbances. Real-time inertia estimation technology has become more important due to the low-inertia issues caused by the increasing integration levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs) from renewable energy; however, existing inertia estimation methods hardly consider multiple frequency response controls that act within the same time frame as conventional inertial response, thus making measured inertia values vary under different testing conditions. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a novel real-time estimation method to simultaneously estimate a power system's inertia constant and frequency response droop constant using a well-designed probing signal. First, we formulate the inertia and frequency response model of a power system with IBRs. Second, through the integration and manipulation of the developed model, we propose a multivariate linear regression-based estimation method that is resilient to measurement noise. Third, we design a probing signal that can be injected by IBRs to incite the required transients for estimation. Finally, we validate the proposed estimation method through comprehensive power-hardware-in-the-loop experiments using inverter hardware and a realistic island power system model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the inertia and droop value of the power system with grid-following IBRs and grid-forming IBRs with virtual synchronous machine control.

frequency response↗

DOE OSTI2026

Atmospheric Modeling and Denoising for Millimeter-Wave Line Intensity Mapping

Line-intensity mapping (LIM) offers a promising approach to mapping large-scale cosmic structure, and the greatest obstacle for ground-based observations at millimeter wavelengths is foreground contamination from atmospheric emission. In this work, we present a simulation and denoising framework designed to isolate and subtract atmospheric fluctuations from LIM data, modeled after the instrument parameters of the South Pole Telescope Summertime Line Intensity Mapper (SPT-SLIM). We generate mock observations spanning 125-175 GHz containing cosmic signals, precipitable water vapor screens, ice crystal fluctuations, and photon noise. We then implement a spatial-spectral atmospheric removal pipeline combining per-pixel linear template regression with a two-dimensional Fourier-domain filter. The framework is evaluated under simulated conditions in the South Pole and the Atacama Desert across three key metrics: cosmic signal preservation, foreground subtraction efficiency, and instrument noise injection. Our pipeline achieves atmospheric suppression at large spatial scales, and these results establish a physically grounded foundation for atmosphere removal in ground-based LIM data collection.

Saye, Laney [UC, Berkeley (main)] (ORCID:000900078↗

DOE OSTI2026

BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.

cosmic inflation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Atmospheric Modeling and Denoising for Millimeter-Wave Line Intensity Mapping

Saye, L. K. [UC, Berkeley (main)] (ORCID:000900078↗

DOE OSTI2025

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Temperature-dependent mechanical properties and crystal plasticity parameters for additively manufactured Haynes-214 alloy: Experiments and numerical modeling

Our experimental mechanical testing data demonstrated that the additively manufactured (AM) laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) Haynes-214 alloy exhibits non-linear mechanical properties as the temperature rises from ambient to 870 °C. Crystal plasticity (CP) simulations provide an effective approach to gaining deeper insights into microstructure-property linkages under thermomechanical loading. This method can reduce the need for costly high-temperature mechanical testing while accounting for the effects of crystallographic texture and grain morphology on the mechanical behavior of AM materials. However, calibrating a CP model is time-consuming because individual simulations are computationally expensive and hundreds (or more) of iterations over parameter sets may be required. To address this issue, we have designed a machine learning-differential evolution (ML-DE) CP framework that can accurately interpolate the tensile properties of AM L-PBF Haynes-214 alloy across a wide temperature range from ambient to 870 °C, with minimal reliance on experimental data. The framework uses electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements to generate statistically equivalent microstructural volume elements to serve as inputs to the CP modeling framework. Stress–strain curves were generated from 1000 CP simulations, which serve as the training data set for the three ML regression algorithms explored: linear, extra-trees, and multi-layer perceptron. These three regression models were independently evaluated to compare their efficiency and identify the most suitable algorithm for the given problem. Results revealed that the extra-trees ML regressor outperforms the other models in both qualitative and quantitative aspects with an R 2 of 0.98. Subsequently, the differential evolution optimization approach is employed to calibrate the ML-based CP material parameters with experimental results obtained at various temperatures. Finally, temperature-dependent CP material parameters are formulated. The effectiveness and efficiency of the designed framework are validated through comparison with experimental results, demonstrating a high degree of agreement. These calibrated parametric constitutive equations enable further use of the CP model to study the deformation behavior of this alloy under a wide range of thermo-mechanical loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hyperplane decision trees as piecewise linear surrogate models for chemical process design

Recent trends in chemical engineering research point towards an increasing reliance on data-driven modeling approaches. Neural networks, for instance, have proven to be accurate when data is plentiful and high-dimensional, but in many cases, they require computationally-intensive training procedures. Here, in this work, we describe hyperplane decision trees (HT) as a highly expressive and low-compute machine learning model architecture. These models are locally linear and have linear decision boundaries, resulting in a piecewise linear model of the data. This property allows them to be converted into mixed-integer linear constraints which can be globally optimized. Our open-source PyTorch implementation of this method is a fast, flexible, and accessible way to build accurate piecewise linear models of data.

Decision trees↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-Based Autotuning for Randomized Sketching Algorithms in Regression Problems

Algorithms from Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra (RandNLA) are known to be effective in handling high-dimensional computational problems, providing high-quality empirical performance as well as strong probabilistic guarantees. However, their practical application is complicated by the fact that the user needs to set various algorithm-specific tuning parameters which are different from those used in traditional NLA. This paper demonstrates how a surrogate-based autotuning approach can be used to address fundamental problems of parameter selection in RandNLA algorithms. In particular, we provide a detailed investigation of surrogate-based autotuning for sketch-and-precondition (SAP)-based randomized least squares methods, which have been one of the great success stories in modern RandNLA. Empirical results show that our surrogate-based autotuning approach can achieve near-optimal performance with much less tuning cost than a random search (up to about 7.6x fewer trials of different parameter configurations). Moreover, while our experiments focus on least squares, our results demonstrate a general-purpose autotuning pipeline applicable to any kind of RandNLA algorithm.

Cho, Younghyun↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flux Hypothesis for Odd Transport Phenomena

Onsager's regression hypothesis makes a fundamental connection between macroscopic transport phenomena and the average relaxation of spontaneous microscopic fluctuations. This relaxation, however, is agnostic to odd transport phenomena, in which fluxes run orthogonal to the gradients driving them. To account for odd transport, we generalize the regression hypothesis, postulating that macroscopic linear constitutive laws are, on average, obeyed by microscopic fluctuations, whether they contribute to relaxation or not. From this "flux hypothesis," Green-Kubo and reciprocal relations follow, elucidating the separate roles of broken time-reversal and parity symmetries underlying various odd transport coefficients. As an application, we derive and verify the Green-Kubo relation for odd collective diffusion in chiral active matter, first in an analytically tractable model and subsequently through molecular dynamics simulations of concentrated active spinners.

Hargus, Cory↗

DOE OSTI2024

GP-BayesOpInf

SAND2025-01851O GP-BayesOpInf is a software tool that uses algorithms to combine Gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, and linear Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic reduced-order model for time-dependent systems. Numerical examples include the compressible Euler equations for an ideal gas, a heat diffusion process with a nonlinear reaction term, and a set of ordinary differential equations describing a compartmental model in epidemiology. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generalized Tensor-on-Tensor Regression (GToTR)

SAND2026-23069O Generalized Tensor-on-Tensor Regression (GToTR) is a Python-based tool for conducting generalized tensor-on-tensor regression. It provides Canonical Polyadic (CP)-based generalized tensor regression models, support for generalized linear model-like families and links, alternating-optimization model fitting methods, and a standard statistics software interface. The tool supports tensor-valued responses and covariates using the open-source Python Tensor Toolbox (pyttb) software package. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Dunlavy, Daniel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Li↗

DOE OSTI2024

Taylor-Expansion-Based Robust Power Flow in Unbalanced Distribution Systems: A Hybrid Data-Aided Method

Traditional power flow methods often adopt certain assumptions designed for passive balanced distribution systems, thus lacking practicality for unbalanced operation. moreover, their computation accuracy and efficiency are heavily subject to unknown errors and bad data in measurements or prediction data of distributed energy resources (ders). to address these issues, this paper proposes a hybrid data-aided robust power flow algorithm in unbalanced distribution systems, which combines taylor series expansion knowledge with a data-driven regression technique. the proposed method initiates a linearization power flow model to derive an explicitly analytical solution by modified taylor expansion. to mitigate the approximation loss that surges due to the der integration and bad data, we further develop a data-aided robust support vector regression approach to estimate the errors efficiently. comparative analysis in the 13-bus and 123-bus ieee unbalanced feeders shows that the proposed hybrid algorithm achieves superior computational efficiency, with guaranteed accuracy and robustness against outliers.

data-driven↗

DOE OSTI2024

Consistent and reproducible computation of the glass transition temperature from molecular dynamics simulations

In many fields, from semiconductors for opto-electronic applications to ionic liquids (ILs) for separations, the glass transition temperature (Tg) of a material is a useful gauge for its potential use in practical settings. As a result, there is a great deal of interest in predicting Tg using molecular simulations. However, the uncertainty and variation in the trend shift method, a common approach in simulations to predict Tg, can be high. This is due to the need for human intervention in defining a fitting range for linear fits of density with temperature assumed for the liquid and glass phases across the simulated cooling. The definition of such fitting ranges then defines the estimate for the Tg as the intersection of linear fits. We eliminate this need for human intervention by leveraging the Shapiro–Wilk normality test and proposing an algorithm to define the fitting ranges and, consequently, Tg. Through this integration, we incorporate into our automated methodology that residuals must be normally distributed around zero for any fit, a requirement that must be met for any regression problem. Consequently, fitting ranges for realizing linear fits for each phase are statistically defined rather than visually inferred, obtaining an estimate for Tg without any human intervention. The method is also capable of finding multiple linear regimes across density vs temperature curves. We compare the predictions of our proposed method across multiple IL and semiconductor molecular dynamics simulation results from the literature and compare other proposed methods for automatically detecting Tg from density–temperature data. We believe that our proposed method would allow for more consistent predictions of Tg. We make this methodology available and open source through GitHub.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning without a processor: Emergent learning in a nonlinear analog network

Standard deep learning algorithms require differentiating large nonlinear networks, a process that is slow and power-hungry. Electronic contrastive local learning networks (CLLNs) offer potentially fast, efficient, and fault-tolerant hardware for analog machine learning, but existing implementations are linear, severely limiting their capabilities. These systems differ significantly from artificial neural networks as well as the brain, so the feasibility and utility of incorporating nonlinear elements have not been explored. Here, we introduce a nonlinear CLLN—an analog electronic network made of self-adjusting nonlinear resistive elements based on transistors. We demonstrate that the system learns tasks unachievable in linear systems, including XOR (exclusive or) and nonlinear regression, without a computer. We find our decentralized system reduces modes of training error in order (mean, slope, curvature), similar to spectral bias in artificial neural networks. The circuitry is robust to damage, retrainable in seconds, and performs learned tasks in microseconds while dissipating only picojoules of energy across each transistor. This suggests enormous potential for fast, low-power computing in edge systems like sensors, robotic controllers, and medical devices, as well as manufacturability at scale for performing and studying emergent learning.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mass Spectrometer Transient Analysis

This software implements a complete preprocessing pipeline for transient mass spectrometry (MS) data collected during TAP (Temporal Analysis of Products) experiments. It is designed to extract chemically meaningful fluxes from overlapping ion signals by applying a calibrated defragmentation matrix and solving the resulting linear system using non-negative least squares (NNLS) regression. The core script, preprocess_mass_spec.py, performs the following operations: Gain correction: Applies amplifier gain scalars derived from inert-packed calibration pulses to normalize signal intensities across AMUs and acquisition settings. Background subtraction: Removes experiment baselines using user-defined time windows, ensuring compatibility with slow-diffusing species and preventing negative values that would interfere with NNLS. Options to subtract before and after defragmentation. Defragmentation: Constructs a fragmentation matrix A from zeroth moments of calibration pulses (equal molar gas:inert mixtures) and solves Ax=b at each time point, where b is the raw MS signal and x is the estimated species flux. The matrix is normalized to inert signals and accounts for instrument-specific fragmentation behavior. Pulse-mode handling: Supports both averaged and individual pulse modes, enabling statistical treatment of fluxes and calculation of standard deviations. Integration and output: Computes zeroth moments (integrated fluxes) and exports time-resolved and integrated data in CSV format, suitable for downstream kinetic modeling. The software is validated using both virtual TAP simulations (VTAP) and experimental data from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) on CrOx/Al2O3 catalysts. It preserves temporal resolution by applying NNLS point-by-point across the pulse duration (typically 6,000+ time slices per pulse), leveraging the linear superposition principle to reconstruct full flux profiles. The defragmented outputs are compatible with kinetic extraction methods such as the G and Y procedures, which are used to derive rate–concentration relationships from TAP data. The details of these validations are discussed in detail in the supporting manuscript and supporting information. Example data and output files are also included. The methodology is robust to experimental noise and drift, with calibration protocols that account for pulse size effects, MS aging, and inert gas normalization. The software is modular, reproducible, and tailored for high-throughput TAP-MS workflows in catalysis research.

Kristy, Stephen [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Predict Novel Eutectic Alloys

The goal of this project was to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the fractional composition and melting point of eutectic alloys using fundamental atomic properties as inputs. The fundamental properties considered include atomic number, atomic weight, atomic radius, valence electron concentration, electronegativity, and electron affinity. The project involved several phases, starting with data preparation, where phase diagram data was harvested from the ASM International database. Approximately 1300 binary eutectics were collected and cleaned to ensure relevance and accuracy. A regression model was selected for training, utilizing a rectified linear unit as the activation function. Various model configurations were evaluated for predictive accuracy, with validation techniques employed to ensure robustness. The model demonstrated predictive capabilities above random guessing and was able to achieve up to 11% accuracy under certain conditions. An ablative test identified atomic radius and valence electron concentration as critical inputs for model performance. Incorporating the melting point of atomic constituents improved accuracy significantly, although ultimately the model’s predictive capability still fell short of the 80% target. This report details the methodology, results, and implications of the research, contributing to the understanding of employing artificial intelligence to predict the phase transition behavior of eutectic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗