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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1993

Study of auroral dynamics with combined spacecraft and incoherent-scatter radar data

We have examined Sondrestrom incoherent-scatter radar observations of ionospheric plasma density and temperature distributions, as well as measurements of F-region ion drifts that were made during a prenoon pass by the DMSP-F7 satellite through the radar field of view. The spacecraft traversed a region of intense electron precipitation with a characteristic energy below approximately 200 eV. Particles with such low characteristic energies are believed to originate, either directly or indirectly, in the magnetosheath. The precipitation region had a width of about 2 deg invariant latitude. The corotating radar observed a patch of enhanced electron density and elevated electron temperature in the F2 region between about 10.5 and 12 magnetic local time in the same invariant latitude range where DMSP-F7 detected the soft-electron flux. The ion drift pattern, also obtained by radar, shows that it is unlikely that the plasma patch was produced by solar radiation and advected into the radar field of view. We suggest that the radar observed modifications of the ionospheric plasma distribution, which resulted from direct entry of magnetosheath electrons into the magnetosphere and down to ionospheric altitudes. Model calculations of the ionospheric response to the observed electron flux support our interpretation.

Watermann, Juergen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the distinct impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance in the central US using a numerical water-tagging technique

Warm-season rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central US is characterized by higher intensity and nocturnal timing compared to rainfall from non-MCS systems, suggesting their potentially different footprints on the land surface. To differentiate the impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance, a water tracer tool embedded in the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (WT-Noah-MP) is used to numerically “tag” water from MCS and non-MCS rainfall separately during April to August (1997-2018) and track their transit in the terrestrial system. From the water-tagging results, over 50% of warm-season rainfall leaves the surface-subsurface system through evapotranspiration by the end of August, but non-MCS rainfall contributes a larger fraction. However, MCS rainfall plays a more important role in generating surface runoff. These differences are mostly attributed to the rainfall intensity differences. The higher intensity MCS rainfall tends to produce more surface runoff through infiltration excess flow and drives a deeper penetration of the rainwater into the soil. Over 70% of the top 10 percentile runoff is contributed by MCS rainfall, demonstrating its important contribution to local flooding. In contrast, lighter intensity non-MCS rainfall resides mostly in the top layer and contributes more to evapotranspiration through soil evaporation. Diurnal timing of rainfall has negligible effects on the flux partitioning for both MCS and non-MCS rainfall. Differences in soil moisture profiles for MCS and non-MCS rainfall and the resultant evapotranspiration suggest differences in their roles in soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks and ecohydrology.

Hu, Huancui↗
DOE OSTI2024

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes Along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies From 1980–2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and floodevents along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present-day characteristics of AR-relatedprecipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulatedusing a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and ForecastingModel. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configurationreproduces both large-scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic-scale cyclones—as well asthe filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracyof simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations,improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale(3 km) relative to coarse-scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothedtopography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain.Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstratethat only the highest-resolution simulations resolve important fine-scale features—such as localizedorographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane-force boundary layer winds. Given thedemonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extremeprecipitation and key fine-scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we arguethat such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR-related extremes and associatedchanges in a warming climate

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Cell Mergers and Their Impact on Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Over the Houston Area

A previous hypothesis advanced from observational studies such as METROMEX suggests that the intensity, frequency, and organization of cumulus convection may be impacted by the forcing of enhanced merger activity downstream of urban zones. A resulting corollary is that cities may exert an indirect anthropogenic forcing of parameters related to convection and associated phenomena such as lightning and precipitation. This paper investigates the urban merger hypothesis by examining the role of convective cell mergers on the existence and persistence of the Houston lightning "anomaly", a local maximum in cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning activity documented to exist over and east of Houston. Using eight summer seasons of peak columnar radar reflectivity, CG lightning data and a cell-tracking algorithm, a two-dimensional cell merger climatology is created for portions of eastern Texas and Louisiana. Results from the tracking and analysis of over 3.8 million cells indicate that merger-driven enhancements in convection induce a positive response (O 46%) in ground-flash densities throughout the domain, with areas of enhanced lightning typically being co-located with areas of enhanced merger activity. However, while mergers over the Houston area (relative to elsewhere in the domain) do result in more vigorous convective cells that produce larger CG flash densities, we find that CG lightning contributions due to mergers are distributed similarly throughout the domain. Hence while we demonstrate that cell mergers do greatly impact the production of lightning, the urban cell merger hypothesis does not uniquely explain the presence of a local lightning maximum near and downstream of Houston.

Gauthier, Michael L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross Validation of the Network of Ground-Based Radar with GPM during the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) Field Campaign

The cross-validation of radars in a network is important in making consistent retrievals across the domain and assuring the product quality. During the RELAMPAGO field campaign, two C-band radars, namely the Colorado State University C-band Hydrological Instrument for Volumetric Observations ( CSU-CHIVO) and the C-band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar (CSAPR-2), were deployed near the Sierras de Cordoba in Argentina, a region known for having some of the most intense severe weather in the world. In addition to these two radars, the operational radar of the Cordoba City, the Radar Meteorologico Argentino 1 (RMA-1), adds another instrument to the RELAMPAGO network. This study presents an intercomparison between the RELAMPAGO C-band radars using the GPM spaceborne radar as a common reference ..A method to bring ground-based radars into better agreement is also proposed. Moreover, the attenuation correction for the C-band radar is studied in the context of intercomparing two radars. The attenuation coefficients are computed for the RELAMPAGO domain using the local disdrometers deployed. during the campaign. After the attenuation correction, CSU-CHIVO, CSAPR-2, and RMA-1 compare well with GPM-DPR with a high correlation and bias less than 1 dB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales where their impacts are most prominent. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 50,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with observations for spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale distributions of TC translation speeds, lifetime maximum intensities and intensification rates. Also, spatial variations in coastal frequency and precipitation for landfalling TCs are well-reproduced in RAFT. In summary, the synthetic TC database based on RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for robust assessment of TC wind and rainfall risk for the US coastal regions and other areas affected by Atlantic TCs.

Xu, Wenwei↗
NASA NTRS2019

Characteristics of Relativistic Microburst Intensity from SAMPEX Observations

Relativistic electron microbursts are an important electron loss process from the radiation belts into the atmosphere. These precipitation events have been shown to significantly impact the radiation belt fluxes and atmospheric chemistry. In this study we address a lack of knowledge about the relativistic microburst intensity using measurements of 21,746 microbursts from the Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX).We find that the relativistic microburst intensity increases as we move inward in L, with a higher proportion of low-intensity microbursts (<2,250 [MeV cu.cm sr s](exp −1)) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region. The mean microburst intensity increases by a factor of 1.7 as the geomagnetic activity level increases and the proportion of high-intensity relativistic microbursts (>2,250 [MeV cu.cm2 sr s](exp −1)) in the 03–11 magnetic local time region increases as geomagnetic activity increases, consistent with changes in the whistler mode chorus wave activity. Comparisons between relativistic microburst properties and trapped fluxes suggest that the microburst intensities are not limited by the trapped flux present alongside the scattering processes. However, microburst activity appears to correspond to the changing trapped flux; more microbursts occur when the trapped fluxes are enhancing, suggesting that microbursts are linked to processes causing the increased trapped fluxes. Finally, modeling of the impact of a published microburst spectra on a flux tube shows that microbursts are capable of depleting <500-keV electrons within 1 hr and depleting higher-energy electrons in 1–23 hr.

Douma, E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Observations of OI 7774 emission excited by conjugate photoelectrons

Observations and computer calculations of O I 7774 A airglow emissions excited by conjugate photoelectrons have been carried out. The observations were made at McDonald Observatory, Texas using a 2 m grille spectrometer from December 1972 to June 1973. The zenithal emission intensity during conjugate photoelectron precipitation was fairly constant at 2-4 R until conjugate sunset, after which it diminished steadily and ceased near a conjugate solar zenith angle of 105 (plus or minus 3) deg. A predawn enhancement in both O I 7774 A and forbidden O I 6300 A was observed to commence near 102 deg. The computations utilize the two-stream technique of Nagy and Banks (1970) to obtain the escaping photoelectron flux and the local excitation rates of the oxygen emissions. Good agreement with the observations is obtained for the dependence of the emission rate on conjugate solar zenith angle.

Christensen, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Compensation for Spherical Geometric and Absorption Effects on Lower Thermospheric Emission Intensities Derived from High Earth Orbit Images

Remote sensing of the atmosphere from high earth orbit is very attractive due to the large field of view obtained and a true global perspective. This viewpoint is complicated by earth curvature effects so that slant path enhancement and absorption effects, small from low earth orbit, become dominant even at small nadir view angles. The effect is further complicated by the large range of local times and solar zenith angles in a single image leading to a modulation of the image intensity by a significant portion of the diurnal height variation of the absorbing layer. The latter effect is significant in particular for mesospheric, stratospheric and auroral emissions due to their depth in the atmosphere. As a particular case, the emissions from atomic oxygen (130.4 and 135.6 nm) and molecular nitrogen (two LBH bands, LBHS from 140 to 160 nm and LBHL from 160 to 180 nm) as viewed from the Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) are examined. The LBH emissions are of particular interest since LBHS has significant 02 absorption while LBHL does not, In the case of auroral emissions this differential absorption, well examined in the nadir, gives information about the height of the emission and therefore the energy of the precipitating particles. Using simulations of the viewing geometry and images from the UVI we examine these effects and obtain correction factors to adjust to the nadir case with a significant improvement of the derived characteristic energy. There is a surprisingly large effect on the images from the 02 diurnal layer height changes. An empirical compensation to the nadir case is explored based on the local nadir and local zenith angles for each portion of the image. These compensations are demonstrated as applied to the above emissions in both auroral and dayglow images and compared to models. The extension of these findings to other instruments, emissions and spectral regions is examined.

Swift, W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.

Clausius–Clapeyron↗
NASA NTRS1983

Ion cyclotron waves in the Io plasma torus - Polarization reversal of whistler mode noise

Because of the presence of multiple ion species in the Io plasma torus, whistler mode noise can be converted to ion cyclotron waves via a polarization reversal process at the local crossover frequency. Using whistler mode intensity measurements in the Jovian magnetosphere from Voyager 1, the pitch-angle diffusion rates that would occur if the noise is converted to ion cyclotron waves is estimated. Typical pitch-angle diffusion coefficients range from 0.000001/sec for protons resonating near the equator to 0.0001/sec for 10-keV O(+) ions resonating at high latitudes. Although complete bounce averaged diffusion coefficients have not yet been computed, preliminary estimates indicate that the energetic ion precipitation caused by these waves may be able to account for the EUV auroral emissions at the foot of the torus field lines.

Gurnett, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Ionospheric footprint of magnetosheathlike particle precipitation observed by an incoherent scatter radar

We have examined Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radar observations of ionospheric plasma density and temperature distributions and measurements of F region ion drifts that were made during a prenoon pass of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)-F7 satellite through the radar field of view. The spacecraft traversed a region of intense electron precipitation with a characteristic energy below approximately 200 eV. Particles with such low characteristic energies are believed to be directly or indirectly of magnetosheath origin. The precipitation region had a width about 2 deg invariant latitude and covered the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), the cusp, and the equatorward section of the plasma mantle (PM). The corotating radar observed a patch of enhanced electron density and elevated electron temperature in the F2 region between about 10.5 and 12 magnetic local time in the same invariant latitude range where DMSP-F7 detected the soft-electron flux. The ion drift pattern, also obtained by radar, shows that it is unlikely that the plasma patch was produced by solar radiation and advected into the radar field of view. We suggest that the radar observed modifications of the ionospheric plasma distribution, which resulted from direct entry of magnetosheath electrons into the magnetosphere and down to ionospheric altitudes. Model calculations of the ionospheric response to the observed electron precipitation support our interpretation. The spectral characteristics of the electron flux in the LLBL, cusp, and equatorward section of the PM were in this case too similar to allow to distinguish between them by using incoherent scatter radar measurements only.

Watermann, Jurgen↗
NASA NTRS1985

Average and worst-case specifications of precipitating auroral electron environment

The precipitation electrons in the auroral environment are highly variable in their energy and intensity in both space and time. As such they are a source of potential hazard to the operation of the Space Shuttle and other large spacecraft operating in polar orbit. In order to assess these hazards both the average and extreme states of the precipitating electrons must be determined. Work aimed at such a specification is presented. First results of a global study of the average characteristics are presented. In this study the high latitude region was divided into spatial elements in magnetic local time and corrected geomagnetic latitude. The average electron spectrum was then determined in each spatial element for seven different levels of activity as measured by K sub p using an extremely large data set of auroral observations. Second a case study of an extreme auroral electron environment is presented, in which the electrons are accelerated through field aligned potential as high as 30,000 volts and in which the spacecraft is seen to charge negatively to a potential approaching .5 kilovolts.

Hardy, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Jovian magnetospheric neutral wind and auroral precipitation flux

A theoretical model of the Jovian magnetosphere is used to describe the mechanism by which energy is transported from Jupiter's rotation into heavy ions precipitating into the atmosphere, and resulting in intense ultraviolet aurora. The flow and magnetic field configurations used in the model are drawn from data collected by the Voyager orbiter. It is shown that the observed Jovian auroral radiation power is supplied by the precipitation of heavy ions of Iogenic origin. The ions are created by a charge exchange between the Io torus and fly as neutrals to the outer magnetosphere. A small fraction of the ions are photoionized in the outer magnetosphere where they acquire a magnetic moment determined by the local corotation electric field and planetary magnetic field. As the ions diffuse inward they are energized adiabatically. A schematic drawing illustrating the evolution of this process is provided. It is also shown that Jupiter may be a significant source of heavy ions for the solar wind by means of photoionization of a neutral wind. Secondary charge exchange in the outer magnetosphere could supply a flux of minimum energy neutral atoms that may have been measured by the Voyager Low Energy Charged Particle detector (LECP).

Eviatar, A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle as Observed by TRMM

Using infrared satellite data, previous work has shown a consistent diurnal cycle in the pattern of cold cloud tops around mature tropical cyclones. In particular, an increase in the coverage by cold cloud tops often occurs in the inner core of the storm around the time of sunset and subsequently propagates outward to several hundred kilometers over the course of the following day. This consistent cycle may have important implications for structure and intensity changes of tropical cyclones and the forecasting of such changes. Because infrared satellite measurements are primarily sensitive to cloud top, the goal of this study is to use passive and active microwave measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR), respectively, to examine and better understand the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle throughout a larger depth of the storm's clouds. The National Hurricane Center's best track dataset was used to extract all PR and TMI pixels within 1000 km of each tropical cyclone that occurred in the Atlantic basin between 1998-2011. Then the data was composited according to radius (100-km bins from 0-1000 km) and local standard time (LST; 3-hr bins). Specifically, PR composites involved finding the percentage of pixels with reflectivity greater than or equal to 20 dBZ at various heights (i.e., 2-14 km in increments of 2 km) as a function of radius and time. The 37- and 85- GHz TMI channels are especially sensitive to scattering by precipitation-sized ice in the mid to upper portions of clouds. Hence, the percentage of 37- and 85-GHz polarization corrected temperatures less than various thresholds were calculated using data from all storms as a function of radius and time. For 37 GHz, thresholds of 260 K, 265 K, 270 K, and 275 K were used, and for 85 GHz, thresholds of 200-270 K in increments of 10 K were utilized. Note that convection forced by the interactions of a tropical cyclone with land (e.g., due to frictional convergence) may disrupt the natural convective cycle of a cyclone. Hence, only data pertaining to storms whose centers were greater than 300 km from land were included in the composites. Early results suggest the presence of a diurnal cycle in the PR composites of all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from a height of 2-12 km from approximately 0-400 km radius, but the cycle is most apparent above 6 km. At a height of 8 km, there is a peak (minimum) in the percentage of PR pixels greater than or equal to 20 dBZ near 0 (21) LST in the inner core with some indication that this signal propagates outward with time. In contrast, the 37- and 85-GHz composites show little indication of a diurnal cycle at any radii, regardless of the threshold used. Ongoing work with this project will involve sub-setting the composites according to storm intensity to see if the diurnal cycle varies with storm strength. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear often leads to asymmetries in tropical cyclone convection and may disrupt the cyclone's natural diurnal cycle. Therefore, wind shear thresholds will be applied to the composites to determine if the diurnal cycle becomes more apparent in a low shear environment. Finally, other work to be completed will involve developing composites for other tropical cyclone basins, including the East Pacific, Northwest Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean.

tropical cyclones↗
DOE OSTI2019

Incorporating Climate Nonstationarity and Snowmelt Processes in Intensity–Duration–Frequency Analyses with Case Studies in Mountainous Areas

In this work, downscaled high-resolution climate simulations were used to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), which accounts for the combined effects of snowmelt and rainfall processes, to determine spatially distributed available water for runoff (AWR). After quasi-stationary time windows were identified based on model outputs extracted for two different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California, intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation and AWR were generated and evaluated at each numerical grid to provide guidance on hydrological infrastructure design. Impacts of snowmelt are found to be spatially variable due to spatial heterogeneity associated with topography according to geostatistical analyses. AWR extremes have stronger spatial continuity compared to precipitation. Snowmelt impacts on AWR are more pronounced at the wet California site than at the semiarid Colorado site. The sensitivities of AWR and precipitation IDFs to increasing greenhouse gas emissions are found to be localized and spatially variable. In subregions with significant snowfall, snowmelt can result in an AWR (e.g., 6-h 100-yr events) that is 70% higher than precipitation. For comparison, future greenhouse gas emissions may increase 6-h 100-yr precipitation and AWR by up to 50% and 80%, respectively, toward the end of this century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗