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DOE OSTI2026

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Localization of Optically Pumped Magnetometers Using Electromagnetic Coils

In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the position, orientation, and gain of a magnetic field sensor using a set of (large) electromagnetic coils. We apply the method for calibrating an array of optically pumped magnetometers (OPMs) for magnetoencephalography (MEG). We first measure the magnetic fields of the coils at multiple known positions using a well-calibrated triaxial magnetometer, and model these discreetly sampled fields using vector spherical harmonics (VSH) functions. We then localize and calibrate an OPM by minimizing the sum of squared errors between the model signals and the OPM responses to the coil fields. We show that by using homogeneous and first-order gradient fields, the OPM sensor parameters (gain, position, and orientation) can be obtained from a set of linear equations with pseudo-inverses of two matrices. The currents that should be applied to the coils for approximating these low-order field components can be determined based on the VSH models. Computationally simple initial estimates of the OPM sensor parameters follow. As a first test of the method, we placed a fluxgate magnetometer at multiple positions and estimated the RMS position, orientation, and gain errors of the method to be 1.0 mm, 0.2°, and 0.8%, respectively. Lastly, we calibrated a 48-channel OPM array. The accuracy of the OPM calibration was tested by using the OPM array to localize magnetic dipoles in a phantom, which resulted in an average dipole position error of 3.3 mm. The results demonstrate the feasibility of using electromagnetic coils to calibrate and localize OPMs for MEG.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Inference with Latent Hamiltonian Neural Networks (L-HNNs)

When sampling for Bayesian inference, one popular approach is to use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS). However, HMC and NUTS can require numerous numerical gradients of the target density and can prove slow in practice. We propose Hamiltonian neural networks (HNNs) with HMC and NUTS for solving Bayesian inference problems [1, 2]. Once trained, HNNs do not require gradients of the target density while sampling. Moreover, they satisfy important properties such as perfect time reversibility and Hamiltonian conservation, making them well suited for use within HMC and NUTS because stationarity can be shown. We also propose an HNN extension called latent HNNs (L-HNNs), which predict latent variable outputs. Compared to HNNs, L-HNNs offer improved expressivity and a reduction in integration errors. Finally, we propose employing L-HNNs in NUTS with an online error monitoring scheme to prevent degeneracy of the sampling in regions of low probability density. We demonstrate L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring by using several example cases involving complex, heavy-tailed, and high local curvature probability densities. Overall, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring satisfactorily inferred these probability densities. Compared to traditional NUTS, L-HNNs in NUTS with online error monitoring improved the effective sample size (ESS) per gradient by an order of magnitude.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed quantum sensing enhanced by continuous-variable error correction

Abstract A distributed sensing protocol uses a network of local sensing nodes to estimate a global feature of the network, such as a weighted average of locally detectable parameters. In the noiseless case, continuous-variable (CV) multipartite entanglement shared by the nodes can improve the precision of parameter estimation relative to the precision attainable by a network without shared entanglement; for an entangled protocol, the root mean square estimation error scales like 1/ M with the number M of sensing nodes, the so-called Heisenberg scaling, while for protocols without entanglement, the error scales like 1 / M . However, in the presence of loss and other noise sources, although multipartite entanglement still has some advantages for sensing displacements and phases, the scaling of the precision with M is less favorable. In this paper, we show that using CV error correction codes can enhance the robustness of sensing protocols against imperfections and reinstate Heisenberg scaling up to moderate values of M . Furthermore, while previous distributed sensing protocols could measure only a single quadrature, we construct a protocol in which both quadratures can be sensed simultaneously. Our work demonstrates the value of CV error correction codes in realistic sensing scenarios.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking image processing techniques for porosity measurement in polymer additive manufacturing: Review and experimental analysis

An image processing workflow is proposed for porosity measurement in polymer additive manufacturing. Various techniques, including global and local thresholding, region growing, and K-means clustering, were applied to microscopic images of carbon fiber reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (CF-ABS) and benchmarked for their ability to accurately measure porosity. Global methods included Otsu, minimum error, iterative, and entropy-based thresholding, while local methods included Niblack, Bernsen, Sauvola, and Bradley-Roth algorithms. Artificial uneven illumination was introduced to test local adaptive thresholds. Results showed significant differences in porosity values across methods. Otsu, region growing, and K-means clustering excelled under uniform illumination, while Sauvola and Bradley-Roth performed better with uneven illumination. Comparison with X-ray computed tomography (XCT) revealed slightly lower porosity values (2.55 %) than optimized methods (2.73–2.79 %) due to XCT's lower resolution excluding smaller pores. While XCT offers finer pore detection, it limits sample volume and underestimates porosity due to spatial variation. Validation using artificial grayscale images with 5 % porosity confirmed that Otsu, Bradley-Roth, region growing, and Sauvola algorithms produced accurate results. Although tested on a single material system, these methods can be adapted to others with optimization. In conclusion, given XCT's high computational and time costs, this study highlights suitable image processing techniques as cost-effective alternatives for porosity analysis in polymer composites.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing group structures using hierarchical division

Creating group structures with few groups that give low errors is a difficult problem in reactor analysis. In recent years, automated optimization techniques have been applied to this task. We continue this trend by applying the hierarchical division algorithm to generate optimized group structures that minimize a cost function. At each stage, the algorithm adds a single group boundary to an existing group structure, dividing one group into two to increase the resolution of the group structure. The location of the added boundary is the one that gives the lowest error over all possible new boundary locations. Our implementation requires a beginning group structure, a set of candidate new boundary locations, and a set of reference reaction rates. As a proof of concept, we used WIMS-69 as the initial group structure, XMAS-172 as the ending group structures, and a 344-group reference group structure. Testing on two simple, homogenized reactor problems, we found that hierarchical division was able to reduce the error by a factor of around 5 with an increase of only 15% in the number of groups. Because hierarchical division can get stuck in local minima, it often reaches a plateau in its error reduction capability as many groups are added. Nevertheless, we find hierarchical division has strong potential to make good group structures into great group structures at a modest increase in computational cost. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Conservative discontinuous Galerkin interpolation: Sheared boundary conditions

Local studies of accretion disks and laboratory magnetized plasmas employ analytical coordinate mappings that introduce sheared boundary conditions (BCs). Here, we present a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) algorithm to apply such BCs based on projections and quadrature-free integration. The procedure is high-order accurate, preserves moments exactly and works in multiple dimensions. Tests of increasing complexity are provided, beginning with translations of one and two dimensional fields, followed by 3D and 5D simulations with sheared (twist-shift) BCs. Results show that the algorithm is (p + 1)-order accurate in the DG representation and (p + 2) -order accurate in the cell averages, with p being the order of the polynomial basis. Quantification of the algorithm's hyperdiffusion and discussion of aliasing errors are given. This technique enables conservative local simulations of plasma turbulence with DG, not possible until now.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

FEDERATED LEARNING ON STOCHASTIC NEURAL NETWORKS

Federated learning is a machine learning paradigm that leverages edge computing on client devices to optimize models while maintaining user privacy by ensuring that local data remain on the device. However, since all data are collected by clients, federated learning is susceptible to latent noise in local datasets. Factors such as limited measurement capabilities or human errors may introduce inaccuracies in client data. To address this challenge, we propose the use of a stochastic neural network as the local model within the federated learning framework. Stochastic neural networks not only facilitate the estimation of the true underlying states of the data but also enable the quantification of latent noise. We refer to our federated learning approach, which incorporates stochastic neural networks as local models, as federated stochastic neural networks. In this work we will present numerical experiments demonstrating the performance and effectiveness of our method, particularly in handling nonindependent and identically distributed data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal function estimation with photonic quantum sensor networks

The problem of optimally measuring an analytic function of unknown local parameters each linearly coupled to a qubit sensor is well understood, with applications ranging from field interpolation to noise characterization. Here we resolve a number of open questions that arise when extending this framework to Mach-Zehnder interferometers and quadrature displacement sensing. In particular, we derive lower bounds on the achievable mean square error in estimating a linear function of either local phase shifts or quadrature displacements. In the case of local phase shifts, these results prove, and somewhat generalize, a conjecture by Proctor []. For quadrature displacements, we extend proofs of lower bounds to the case of arbitrary linear functions. We provide optimal protocols achieving these bounds up to small (multiplicative) constants and describe an algebraic approach to deriving new optimal protocols, possibly subject to additional constraints. Using this approach, we prove necessary conditions for the amount of entanglement needed for any optimal protocol for both local phase and displacement sensing. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Bringewatt, Jacob↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantum algorithms for disordered physics

We show how a quantum computer may efficiently simulate a disordered Hamiltonian, by incorporating a pseudo-random number generator directly into the time evolution circuit. This technique is applied to quantum simulation of few-body disordered systems in the large volume limit; in particular, Anderson localization. The method requires a number of (error corrected) qubits proportional to the logarithm of the volume of the system, and each time evolution step requires a number of gates polylogarithmic in the volume. We simulate the method to observe the metal-insulator transition on a three-dimensional lattice. Additionally, we demonstrate the algorithm on a one-dimensional lattice, using physical quantum processors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

TANTE: Time-adaptive operator learning via neural Taylor expansion

Operator learning for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) has seen rapid progress in recent years, enabling efficient approximation of complex spatiotemporal dynamics. However, most existing methods rely on fixed time step sizes during rollout, which limits their ability to adapt to varying temporal complexity and often leads to error accumulation. In this work, we propose the Time-Adaptive Transformer with Neural Taylor Expansion (TANTE), a novel operator-learning framework that produces continuous-time predictions with adaptive step sizes. TANTE predicts future states by performing a Taylor expansion at the current state, where neural networks learn both the higher-order temporal derivatives and the local radius of convergence. This allows the model to dynamically adjust its rollout based on the local behavior of the solution, thereby reducing cumulative error and improving computational efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TANTE across a wide range of PDE benchmarks, achieving superior accuracy and adaptability compared to fixed-step baselines, delivering accuracy gains of 60-80 % and speed-ups of 30-40 % at inference time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conservation of Dry Air, Water, and Energy in CAM and Its Potential Impact on Tropical Rainfall

Abstract For the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), an adjustment is needed to conserve dry air mass. This adjustment exposes an inconsistency in how CAM6’s energy budget incorporates water—in CAM6 water in the vapor phase has energy, but condensed phases of water do not. When water vapor condenses, only its latent energy is retained in the model, while its remaining internal, potential, and kinetic energy are lost. A global fixer is used in the default CAM6 model to maintain global energy conservation, but locally the energy tendency associated with water changing phase violates the divergence theorem. This error in energy tendency is intrinsically tied to the water vapor tendency, and reaches its highest values in regions of heavy rainfall, where the error can be as high as 40 W m −2 annually averaged. Several possible changes are outlined within this manuscript that would allow CAM6 to satisfy the divergence theorem locally. These fall into one of two categories: 1) modifying the surface flux to balance the local atmospheric energy tendency and 2) modifying the local atmospheric tendency to balance the surface plus top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. To gauge which aspects of the simulated climate are most sensitive to this error, the simplest possible change—where condensed water still does not carry energy and a local energy fixer is used in place of the global one—is implemented within CAM6. Comparing this experiment with the default configuration of CAM6 reveals precipitation, particularly its variability, to be highly sensitive to the energy budget formulation. Significance Statement This study examines and explains spurious regional sources and sinks of energy in a widely used climate model. These energy errors result from not tracking energy associated with water after it transitions from the vapor phase to either liquid or ice. Instead, the model used a global fixer to offset the energy tendency related to the energy sources and sinks associated with condensed water species. We replace this global fixer with a local one to examine the model sensitivity to the regional energy error and find a large sensitivity in the simulated hydrologic cycle. This work suggests that the underlying thermodynamic assumptions in the model should be revisited to build confidence in the model-simulated regional-scale water and energy cycles.

Harrop, Bryce E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty analysis of correlated parameters in automated reaction mechanism generation

Abstract Uncertainty analysis is a useful tool for inspecting and improving detailed kinetic mechanisms because it can identify the greatest sources of model output error. Owing to the very nonlinear relationship between kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and computed concentrations, model predictions can be extremely sensitive to uncertainties in some parameters while uncertainties in other parameters can be irrelevant. Error propagation becomes even more convoluted in automatically generated kinetic models, where input uncertainties are correlated through kinetic rate rules and thermodynamic group values. Local and global uncertainty analyses were implemented and used to analyze error propagation in Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG), an open‐source software for generating kinetic models. A framework for automatically assigning parameter uncertainties to estimated thermodynamics and kinetics was created, enabling tracking of correlated uncertainties. Local first‐order uncertainty propagation was implemented using sensitivities computed natively within RMG. Global uncertainty analysis was implemented using adaptive Smolyak pseudospectral approximations as implemented in the MIT Uncertainty Quantification Library to efficiently compute and construct polynomial chaos expansions to approximate the dependence of outputs on a subset of uncertain inputs. Cantera was used as a backend for simulating the reactor system in the global analysis. Analyses were performed for a phenyldodecane pyrolysis model. Local and global methods demonstrated similar trends; however, many uncertainties were significantly overestimated by the local analysis. Both local and global analyses show that correlated uncertainties based on kinetic rate rules and thermochemical groups drastically reduce a model's degrees of freedom and have a large impact on the determination of the most influential input parameters. These results highlight the necessity of incorporating uncertainty analysis in the mechanism generation workflow.

Gao, Connie W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Local position-space two-nucleon potentials from leading to fourth order of chiral effective field theory

We present local, position-space chiral NN potentials through four orders of chiral effective field theory ranging from leading order (LO) to next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N 3 LO, fourth order) of the Δ-less version of the theory. The long-range parts of these potentials are fixed by the very accurate πN LECs as determined in the Roy-Steiner equations analysis. At the highest order (N 3 LO), the NN data below 190 MeV laboratory energy are reproduced with the respectable χ 2 /datum of 1.45. A comparison of the N 3 LO potential with the phenomenological Argonne v 18 (AV18) potential reveals substantial agreement between the two potentials in the intermediate range ruled by chiral symmetry, thus, providing a chiral underpinning for the phenomenological AV18 potential. Our chiral NN potentials may serve as a solid basis for systematic ab initio calculations of nuclear structure and reactions that allow for a comprehensive error analysis. In particular, the order by order development of the potentials will make possible a reliable determination of the truncation error at each order. Our new family of local position-space potentials differs from existing potentials of this kind by a weaker tensor force as reflected in relatively low D-state probabilities of the deuteron (P D ≲ 4.0 % for our N 3 LO potentials) and predictions for the triton binding energy above 8.00 MeV (from two-body forces alone). As a consequence, our potentials may lead to different predictions when applied to light and intermediate-mass nuclei in ab initio calculations and, potentially, help solve some of the outstanding problems in microscopic nuclear structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing many-body localization on a noisy quantum computer

A disordered quantum system of interacting particles exhibits localized behavior when the disorder is large compared to the interaction strength. Studying this phenomenon on a quantum computer with no, or limited, error correction is challenging because even weak coupling to a thermal environment destroys most signatures of localization. Fortunately, spectral functions of local operators are known to contain features that can survive the presence of noise. In these spectra, discrete peaks and a soft gap at low frequencies compared to the thermal phase indicate localization. Here, we present the computation of spectral functions on a trapped-ion quantum computer for a one-dimensional Heisenberg model with disorder. Further, we design an error-mitigation technique which is effective at removing the noise from the measurement allowing clear signatures of localization to emerge as the disorder increases. Furthermore, we show that spectral functions can serve as a robust and scalable diagnostic of many-body localization on current and future generations of quantum computers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

A divergence-free constrained magnetic field interpolation method for scattered data

An interpolation method to evaluate magnetic fields, given its unstructured and scattered magnetic data, is presented. The method is based on the reconstruction of the global magnetic field using a superposition of orthogonal functions. The coefficients of the expansion are obtained by minimizing a cost function defined as the L2 norm of the difference between the ground truth and the reconstructed magnetic field evaluated on the training data. The divergence-free condition is incorporated as a constraint in the cost function, allowing the method to achieve arbitrarily small errors in the magnetic field divergence. An exponential decay of the approximation error is observed and compared with the less favorable algebraic decay of local splines. Compared to local methods involving computationally expensive search algorithms, the proposed method exhibits a significant reduction of the computational complexity of the field evaluation, while maintaining a small error in the divergence even in the presence of magnetic islands and stochasticity. Finally, applications to the computation of Poincaré sections using data obtained from numerical solutions of the magnetohydrodynamic equations in toroidal geometry are presented and compared with local methods currently in use.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase-based velocity extraction method for photonic Doppler velocimetry with potential higher time resolution

We present an extension of the [Takeda et al., J. Opt. Soc. Am. 72, 156 (1982)] phase extraction method to heterodyne photonic Doppler velocimetry applications. The method yields results equivalent to those obtained by the short-time Fourier transform (STFT), while offering potential improvements in time resolution. Unlike STFT, which relies on window functions, such as the Hamming window, that emphasize central data points and diminish the influence of edges, the extended Takeda method utilizes all data uniformly. This uniform treatment allows for the derivation of empirical equations that directly relate velocity error to the actual time resolution rather than to the local analysis duration. The established equation provides a useful metric for both optimizing hardware configuration and guiding data analysis. Simulation and experimental results confirm that, for a given dataset, specifying a target time resolution yields consistent velocity errors for both methods. These findings underscore the Takeda method’s advantages, particularly its potential higher time resolution and reduced computational burden, making it a valuable tool for high-throughput applications such as laser dynamic compression experiments.

Computer simulation↗