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106 records · Page 6

Comparison of Aerosol Single Scattering Albedos Derived by Diverse Techniques In Two North Atlantic Experiments

Aerosol single scattering albedo omega (the ratio of scattering to extinction) is important in determining aerosol climatic effects, in explaining relationships between calculated and measured radiative fluxes, and in retrieving aerosol optical depths from satellite radiances. Recently, two experiments in the North Atlantic region, the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) and the Second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2), determined aerosol omega by a variety of techniques. The techniques included fitting of calculated to measured radiative fluxes; retrievals of omega from skylight radiances; best fits of complex refractive index to profiles of backscatter extinction, and size distribution; and in situ measurements of scattering and absorption at the surface and aloft. Both TARFOX and ACE-2 found a fairly wide range of values for omega at midvisable wavelengths approx. 550 nm, with omega(sub midvis) greater than or equal to 0.85 and less than or equal to 0.99 for the marine aerosol impacted by continental pollution. Frequency distributions of omega could usually be approximated by lognormals in omega(sub max) - omega, with some occurrence of bimodality, suggesting the influence of different aerosol sources or processing. In both TARFOX and ACE-2, closure tests between measured and calculated radiative fluxes yielded best-fit values of omega(sub midvis) 0.90 +/- 0.04 for the polluted boundary layer. Although these results have the virtue of describing the column aerosol unperturbed by sampling, they are subject to questions about representativeness and other uncertainties (e.g., thermal offsets, unknown gas absorption) The other techniques gave larger values for omega(sub midvis) for the polluted boundary layer, with a typical result of omega(sub midvis) = 0.95 +/- 0.04. Current uncertainties in omega are large in terms of climate effects More tests are needed of the consistency among different methods and of humidification effects on omega.

Russell, P. B.↗

Merged interaction regions and large-scale magnetic field fluctuations during 1991: Voyager 2 observations

This paper analyzes Voyager 2 observations of the magnetic field between 33.6 AU and 36.2 AU during 1991 when extraordinary events were observed on the Sun and in the heliosphere. The magnetic field strength signal B(t) has the unusual form of two large transient merged interaction regions (MIRs) on a fluctuating background. The two MIRs moved past the spacecraft in 32 days and 18 days, respectively. The mean field strength in each transient MIR was approx. equals 2.6 times the mean field during the remaining part of the year (0.11 nT). Each of the MIRs is related to a fast stream. The magnetic field is strong throughout each stream, suggesting that the strong fields are carried by the streams as well as produced by shock and stream compression. The fluctuations in B(t) during 1991 are not multifractal, and the MIRs cannot be approximated as multifractal clusters of intense magnetic fields. The distribution of the hour-averaged magnetic field strengths is approximately lognormal over 90% of its intermediate range, and it has an exponential tail for B greater than the average magnetic field strength. The elevation angles of B have a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 16 deg +/- 4 deg. The distributions of the azimuthal angles of B in the ranges 1 deg - 180 deg and 180 deg - 360 deg are approximately normal over a more limited range, and non-Gaussian tails associated with nearly radial magnetic fields; the standard deviations are approx. equal to 40 deg. Individual sectors are present throughout most of the interval, even in the MIRs, but there is no recurrent sector pattern. A model of the large-scale fluctuations in 1991 will have to include both determinaistic and statistical factors.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

New Observations of Subarcsecond Photospheric Bright Points

We have used an interference filter centered at 4305 A within the bandhead of the CH radical (the 'G band') and real-time image selection at the Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope on La Palma to produce very high contrast images of subarcsecond photospheric bright points at all locations on the solar disk. During the 6 day period of 15-20 Sept. 1993 we observed active region NOAA 7581 from its appearance on the East limb to a near-disk-center position on 20 Sept. A total of 1804 bright points were selected for analysis from the disk center image using feature extraction image processing techniques. The measured FWHM distribution of the bright points in the image is lognormal with a modal value of 220 km (0.30 sec) and an average value of 250 km (0.35 sec). The smallest measured bright point diameter is 120 km (0.17 sec) and the largest is 600 km (O.69 sec). Approximately 60% of the measured bright points are circular (eccentricity approx. 1.0), the average eccentricity is 1.5, and the maximum eccentricity corresponding to filigree in the image is 6.5. The peak contrast of the measured bright points is normally distributed. The contrast distribution variance is much greater than the measurement accuracy, indicating a large spread in intrinsic bright-point contrast. When referenced to an averaged 'quiet-Sun' area in the image, the modal contrast is 29% and the maximum value is 75%; when referenced to an average intergranular lane brightness in the image, the distribution has a modal value of 61% and a maximum of 119%. The bin-averaged contrast of G-band bright points is constant across the entire measured size range. The measured area of the bright points, corrected for pixelation and selection effects, covers about 1.8% of the total image area. Large pores and micropores occupy an additional 2% of the image area, implying a total area fraction of magnetic proxy features in the image of 3.8%. We discuss the implications of this area fraction measurement in the context of previously published measurements which show that typical active region plage has a magnetic filling factor on the order of 10% or greater. The results suggest that in the active region analyzed here, less than 50% of the small-scale magnetic flux tubes are demarcated by visible proxies such as bright points or pores.

Berger, T. E.↗

New Observations of Subarcsecond Photospheric Bright Points

We have used an interference filter centered at 4305 A within the bandhead of the CH radical (the 'G band') and real-time image selection at the Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope on La Palma to produce very high contrast images of subarcsecond photospheric bright points at all locations on the solar disk. During the 6 day period of 1993 September 15-20 we observed active region NOAA 7581 from its appearance on the East limb to a near-disk-center position on September 20. A total of 1804 bright points were selected for analysis from the disk center image using feature extraction image processing techniques. The measured Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) distribution of the bright points in the image is lognormal with a modal value of 220 km (0 sec .30) and an average value of 250 km (0 sec .35). The smallest measured bright point diameter is 120 km (0 sec .17) and the largest is 600 km (O sec .69). Approximately 60% of the measured bright points are circular (eccentricity approx. 1.0), the average eccentricity is 1.5, and the maximum eccentricity corresponding to filigree in the image is 6.5. The peak contrast of the measured bright points is normally distributed. The contrast distribution variance is much greater than the measurement accuracy, indicating a large spread in intrinsic bright-point contrast. When referenced to an averaged 'quiet-Sun' area in the image, the modal contrast is 29% and the maximum value is 75%; when referenced to an average intergranular lane brightness in the image, the distribution has a modal value of 61% and a maximum of 119%. The bin-averaged contrast of G-band bright points is constant across the entire measured size range. The measured area of the bright points, corrected for pixelation and selection effects, covers about 1.8% of the total image area. Large pores and micropores occupy an additional 2% of the image area, implying a total area fraction of magnetic proxy features in the image of 3.8%. We discuss the implications of this area fraction measurement in the context of previously published measurements which show that typical active region plage has a magnetic filling factor on the order of 10% or greater. The results suggest that in the active region analyzed here, less than 50% of the small-scale magnetic flux tubes are demarcated by visible proxies such as bright points or pores.

Berger, T. E.↗

Diffuse Reflection of Laser Light From Clouds

Laser light reflected from an aqueous suspension of particles or "cloud" with known thickness and particle size distribution defines the "cloud radiative Green's function", G. G is sensitive to cloud thickness, allowing retrieval of that important quantity. We describe a laboratory simulation of G, useful in design of an offbeam Lidar instrument for remote sensing of cloud thickness. Clouds of polystyrene microspheres suspended in water are analogous to real clouds of water droplets suspended in air. The size distribution extends from 0.5 microns to 25 microns, roughly lognormal, similar to real clouds. Density of suspended spheres is adjusted so photon mean-free-path is about 10 cm, 1000 times smaller than in real clouds. The light source is a Nd:YAG laser at 530 nm. Detectors are flux and photon-counting PMTs, with a glass probe for precise positioning. A Labview 5 VI controls position and data acquisition, via an NI Motion Control board connected to a stepper motor driving an Edmund linear slider,and a 16-channel 16-bit NI-DAQ board. The stepper motor is accurate to 10 microns. Step size is selectable. Far from the beam, the rate of exponential increase in the beam direction scales as expected from diffusion theory, linearly with cloud thickness, and inversely as the square root of the reduced optical thickness, independent of particle size. Nearer the beam the signal increases faster than exponential and depends on particle size. Results verify 3D Monte Carlo simulations that demonstrate detectability of remotely sensed offbeam returns, without filters at night, with narrow bandpass filter in day.

Cahalan, R. F.↗

Model studies of the beam-filling error for rain-rate retrieval with microwave radiometers

Low-frequency (less than 20 GHz) single-channel microwave retrievals of rain rate encounter the problem of beam-filling error. This error stems from the fact that the relationship between microwave brightness temperature and rain rate is nonlinear, coupled with the fact that the field of view is large or comparable to important scales of variability of the rain field. This means that one may not simply insert the area average of the brightness temperature into the formula for rain rate without incurring both bias and random error. The statistical heterogeneity of the rain-rate field in the footprint of the instrument is key to determining the nature of these errors. This paper makes use of a series of random rain-rate fields to study the size of the bias and random error associated with beam filling. A number of examples are analyzed in detail: the binomially distributed field, the gamma, the Gaussian, the mixed gamma, the lognormal, and the mixed lognormal ('mixed' here means there is a finite probability of no rain rate at a point of space-time). Of particular interest are the applicability of a simple error formula due to Chiu and collaborators and a formula that might hold in the large field of view limit. It is found that the simple formula holds for Gaussian rain-rate fields but begins to fail for highly skewed fields such as the mixed lognormal. While not conclusively demonstrated here, it is suggested that the notionof climatologically adjusting the retrievals to remove the beam-filling bias is a reasonable proposition.

Ha, Eunho↗

The Messy Aerosol Submodel MADE3 (v2.0b): Description and a Box Model Test

We introduce MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, 3rd generation), an aerosol dynamics submodel for application within the MESSy framework (Modular Earth Submodel System). MADE3 builds on the predecessor aerosol submodels MADE and MADE-in. Its main new features are the explicit representation of coarse particle interactions both with other particles and with condensable gases, and the inclusion of hydrochloric acid (HCl)chloride (Cl) partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. The aerosol size distribution is represented in the new submodel as a superposition of nine lognormal modes: one for fully soluble particles, one for insoluble particles, and one for mixed particles in each of three size ranges (Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges). In order to assess the performance of MADE3 we compare it to its predecessor MADE and to the much more detailed particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC in a box model simulation of an idealized marine boundary layer test case. MADE3 and MADE results are very similar, except in the coarse mode, where the aerosol is dominated by sea spray particles. Cl is reduced in MADE3 with respect to MADE due to the HClCl partitioning that leads to Cl removal from the sea spray aerosol in our test case. Additionally, aerosol nitrate concentration is higher in MADE3 due to the condensation of nitric acid on coarse particles. MADE3 and PartMC- MOSAIC show substantial differences in the fine particle size distributions (sizes about 2 micrometers) that could be relevant when simulating climate effects on a global scale. Nevertheless, the agreement between MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC is very good when it comes to coarse particle size distribution, and also in terms of aerosol composition. Considering these results and the well-established ability of MADE in reproducing observed aerosol loadings and composition, MADE3 seems suitable for application within a global model.

Mixing state↗

Statistical Properties of SGR 1806-20 Bursts

We find that the fluence distribution of bursts observed with each instrument are well described by power laws with indices 1.43, 1.67 and 1.76 respectively. The distribution of time intervals between successive bursts from SGR 1806-20 is described by a lognormal function with peak at 97 s. There is no correlation between burst intensity and either the waiting times till the next burst or the time elapsed since the previous burst, We find a correlation between the duration and fluence of the bursts, but with substantial scatter. In all these statistical properties, SGR bursts resemble self-organized critical systems, such as earthquakes and solar flares. Our results thus support the hypothesis that the energy source for SGR bursts is crustquakes due to the magnetic field of the neutron star, rather than any accretion- or nuclear-power.

Gogus, E.↗

Statistical Properties of SGR 1806-20 Bursts

We present statistics of SGR 1806-20 bursts, combining 290 events detected with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer/Proportional Counter Array, 111 events detected with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment, and 134 events detected with the International Cometary, Explorer. We find that the fluence distribution of bursts observed with each instrument are well described by power laws with indices 1.43, 1.76, and 1.67, respectively. The distribution of time intervals between successive bursts from SGR 1806-20 is described by a lognormal function with a peak at 103 s. There is no correlation between the burst intensity and either the waiting times until the next burst or the time elapsed since the previous burst. In all these statistical properties, SGR 1806-20 bursts resemble a self-organized critical system, similar to earthquakes and solar flares. Our results thus support the hypothesis that the energy source for soft gamma repeater bursts is crustquakes due to the evolving, strong magnetic field of the neutron star, rather than any accretion or nuclear power.

Gogus, Ersin↗

Rain attenuation measurements: Variability and data quality assessment

Year to year variations in the cumulative distributions of rain rate or rain attenuation are evident in any of the published measurements for a single propagation path that span a period of several years of observation. These variations must be described by models for the prediction of rain attenuation statistics. Now that a large measurement data base has been assembled by the International Radio Consultative Committee, the information needed to assess variability is available. On the basis of 252 sample cumulative distribution functions for the occurrence of attenuation by rain, the expected year to year variation in attenuation at a fixed probability level in the 0.1 to 0.001 percent of a year range is estimated to be 27 percent. The expected deviation from an attenuation model prediction for a single year of observations is estimated to exceed 33 percent when any of the available global rain climate model are employed to estimate the rain rate statistics. The probability distribution for the variation in attenuation or rain rate at a fixed fraction of a year is lognormal. The lognormal behavior of the variate was used to compile the statistics for variability.

Crane, Robert K.↗

Towards an Enhanced Droplet Activation Scheme for Multi-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Initial droplet spectra produced upon activation impact the ensuing chain of microphysical processes andtherefore play a crucial role in cloud evolution. This work re-examines dependencies of newly formed clouddroplet size distribution (CDSD) characteristics on environmental and aerosol properties via parcel model simulationsthat serve as the basis for a multi-moment bulk microphysics droplet activation scheme suitable for acloud-resolving model (CRM). It is found that applying a fixed size threshold to define activated droplets versusemploying physical considerations can lead to erroneous activation and overly broad CDSDs for high aerosolconcentration and weak updraft conditions. Aerosol distributions characterized by larger median sizes and/orincreased solubility can result in greater activated droplet numbers, whereas impacts of these parameters onCDSD spectral width depend on both aerosol number concentration and updraft velocity. An expansion of theactivation scheme to include CDSD spectral width is proposed to aid efforts to extend high-order momentprediction to cloud droplet categories in CRMs as well as better represent variability in the activation process onthe cloud scale.simulations to investigate the regime dependence of the relative dispersion(d)1 of newly activated CDSDs, where d is the ratio of dropletradius standard deviation (σ) to the mean radius (r ). C16 demonstratedthat increasing Na resulted in increasing (decreasing) d values via reducedcondensational narrowing (spectral broadening) rates within theAL (UL) regime, with d values peaking in the TR regime. Their findingssuggest a similar regime dependence for d as R09 noted for Nc and helpexplain reportedly conflicting relationships between Na and CDSDspectral characteristics (cf. Hudson and Noble, 2014; Liu et al., 2014),although the applicability of these results within bulk microphysicalschemes was not addressed.Simulating aerosol-cloud interactions with CRMs employing bulkmicrophysics requires that the scheme minimally predict two CDSDparameters, namely mass and number concentrations, and represent thedroplet activation process. Various activation schemes aim to determineNc from aerosol and environmental properties and include analyticalexpressions (e.g., Abdul-Razzak et al., 1998; Morrison et al., 2005) aswell as lookup tables (LUTs) based on detailed parcel model calculations(e.g., Saleeby and Cotton, 2004, hereafter SC04; Segal and Khain,2006; Thompson and Eidhammer, 2014). Expressions to diagnose CDSDspectral width from Nc (Grabowski, 1998; Liu et al., 2006; Morrison andGrabowski, 2007) or cloud water content (Geoffroy et al., 2010) havealso been developed, although more robust methods to obtain CDSDspectral width upon activation are presently lacking. This latter point isrelevant for triple-moment (3 M) bulk microphysics that aim to predictdistribution spectral width alongside number and mass concentrations(e.g., Loftus et al., 2014; Milbrandt and Yau, 2005).The current work extends the findings of C16 to the current LUTbasedaerosol activation scheme used in the Regional AtmosphericModeling System (RAMS) (Cotton et al., 2003; SC04; Saleeby and vanden Heever, 2013, hereafter SvdH13) and additionally examinesaerosol size and solubility impacts on newly activated CDSD properties.Because early cloud development processes such as condensationalgrowth, evaporation, and droplet self-collection depend on and impactCDSD spectral width (Hudson and Yum, 1997; Seifert and Beheng 2001;Lu and Seinfeld, 2006; Igel and van den Heever, 2017), an expansion ofthe activation LUTs to include CDSD spectral width is proposed as apreliminary step for extending 3M prediction to CDSDs in CRMs forimproved simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions.2. MethodologyThe current RAMS two-moment microphysics module determinesthe fractional number of aerosol particles that activate to cloud dropletsfrom five-dimensional LUTs based on model predicted air temperature(T), w, Na, and the geometric median radius (rg) and soluble fraction (ε)of the aerosol size distribution (SvdH13). These LUTs are created offlineusing a one-dimensional Lagrangian adiabatic parcel model (Feingoldand Heymsfield, 1992; Heymsfield and Sabin, 1989; SC04) to simulateexplicit droplet activation and initial CDSD growth for a range of ambientatmospheric conditions [T, w] and binned lognormal aerosol sizedistributions given by= ⎡⎣ ⎢− ⎤⎦ ⎥N r Nr π σr rσ( )2 lnexp[ln( / )]2(ln )aggg22 (1)where r is the dry aerosol particle bin radius and σg is the geometricstandard deviation of the distribution. As the parcel model simulationsfocus on the activation process, other processes such as coalescence,sedimentation, and mixing are not considered. Details of the parcelmodel can be found in SC04 and SvdH13, and only a brief description isprovided here. At the onset of parcel model calculations, the initiallydry aerosol particles in all bins first deliquesce and reach theirequilibrium diameters in a sub-saturated environment based on theKöhler equation for solution droplets. The parcel is then lifted at a fixedupward velocity w, and particle growth by vapor diffusion, along withconcurrent changes in the ambient environment, are iteratively computedusing the Variable-coefficient Ordinary Differential Equation(VODE) solver (Brown et al., 1989). The time resolution of these calculationsis determined within the VODE solver, and the frequency atwhich the solver is called is controlled by a longer model time stepbased on fixed upward parcel displacement increments (Δz) at thespecified w (Δt=Δz/w). Model calculations proceed until the parcelreaches a height 50m beyond the level of maximum saturation ratio(Smax) or total parcel displacement exceeds 2 km. Upon model termination,Smax and the fractional number of aerosols (factv) resulting innewly formed cloud droplets, defined as particles having diameters of atleast 2 μm, are cataloged in the LUTs according to the specified T, w, Na,rg, and ε parameter values.A critical point regarding the creation of these LUTs is the use of afixed minimum diameter (Dmin) to define cloud droplets in the parcelmodel, which can produce erroneous CDSD characteristics, particularlywithin the UL regime. For aerosol distributions with large rg valuesunder low SS conditions, for example, deliquesced aerosols within thelarge tail of the distribution can exceed 2 μm in diameter yet remainunactivated as ‘haze’ particles (Levin and Cotton, 2009; McFigganset al., 2006). For this study, aerosol particles activate to cloud dropletsbased on the critical diameter Dcrit as a function of parcel supersaturationratio (Sr) as in R09:D = σ MS RTρ83 ln( ) critsol wr w (2)where σsol is the surface tension of a solution droplet, Mw and ρw are themolar mass and density of liquid water, respectively, and R is theuniversal gas constant. Additionally, at relatively large w values withinthe AL regime, Nc stabilizes shortly after reaching supersaturation.However, parcel ascent and condensational growth continue beyondthe level of Smax, potentially causing additional narrowing of the CDSD.In the current work, model calculations terminate upon reaching Smaxas changes in Nc are negligible with continued ascent (Peng et al., 2007;R09).Parcel model simulations are performed to examine the sensitivitiesof CDSD characteristics to w, Na, rg, and ε, with the ranges for theseparameters listed in Table 1. Aerosols are assumed to be a mix of solubleand insoluble material of equal density, specified by ε, where fullysoluble aerosols correspond to ammonium sulfate with hygroscopicityparameter κ=0.61 (Petters and Kreidenweis, 2007). FollowingSvdH13, aerosol geometric standard deviation is fixed at σg=1.8, andaerosol distributions (Eq. 1) are partitioned into 100 logarithmicallyspacedbins spanning a size range specific to each rg value. For all simulations,Δz=1 m, and initial values of relative humidity, air temperatureand pressure are set to RH=0.99, T=10 °C and p=900 hPa,respectively.

Loftus, Adrian M.↗

Mountain-Top-to-Mountain-Top Optical Link Demonstration

A mountain-top-to-mountain-top optical link was demonstrated between JPL's Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California, and Strawberry Peak (SP), Lake Arrowhead, California, during the months of June, August, and September of 2000. The bidirectional laser link was nearly horizontal at an altitude of 2 km and spanned a range of 46.8 km. The 780-nm beacon laser transmitted from TMF comprised eight co-propagating mutually incoherent laser beams. The normalized variance or scintillation index (SI) of the individual beacon lasers measured by recording the signal received through 8.50-cm-diameter spotting telescopes on three different nights (June 28-30, 2000) was 1.05 +/- 0.2, 1.76 +/- 0.6, and 0.96 +/- 0.24, respectively. These measurements agreed with values predicted by a heuristic model. The SI of the signal received at SP was found to decrease progressively with an increasing number of beams, and a factor of 3 to 3.5 reduction was achieved for all eight beams. The beam divergence determined by mapping out the point spread function of a few of the individual laser footprints received at SP was 85 to 150 microrad, compared to a design goal of 120 microrad. The 852-nm communications laser beam received at TMF through a 60-cm-diameter telescope on the nights of August 4 and September 14 and 15, 2000, yielded SI values of 0.23 +/- 0.04, 0.32 +/- 0.01, and 0.49 +/- 0.18, respectively, where the reduction was attributed to aperture averaging. The probability distribution functions of the received signal at either end, mitigated by multi-beam averaging in one direction and by aperture averaging in the other direction, displayed lognormal behavior. Consequently, the measured fade statistics showed good agreement with a lognormal model.

Biswas, A.↗

Undergraduate research report

Studies are reported of the probability distribution of yield strength for mild steel, and the application of numerical techniques to solve mechanical vibration problems. Tensile experiments were conducted for 50 cold rolled and 38 hot rolled mild steel rods. Chi-square, Kolmogro-Smirnov and goodness-of-fit methods are used to test the normality or lognormality of the experimental results. As an example of the application of numerical techniques, a nonlinear dash-pot-speing system subjected to seismic excitation is analyzed by using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta integrated method.

Yeh, H. Y.↗

The joint far-infrared-optical luminosity function for spiral galaxies and data for the Abell 400 and Cancer clusters

Visual and IRAS data for an optically selected sample of 183 late-type galaxies are compiled in tables and graphs and analyzed in detail to determine the joint FIR-optical luminosity function Psi from the FIR/blue luminosity ratio, r = L(FIR)/L(B). It is found that Psi can be approximated by a function of a single variable psi(r-prime), where r-prime is defined as r times L(B)/L(asterisk) exp -delta, with L(asterisk) a constant and delta = about 0.08. A lognormal curve peaking at r-prime = 0.35 and with dispersion of 0.28 is shown to give a good fit to psi(r-prime). From a lack of galaxies with very low r-prime in the present sample it is inferred that there are few spiral galaxies with low interstellar-dust abundances. Also included are data on the distribution function of r-prime for the more distant clusters Abell 400 and Cancer.

Corbelli, Edvige↗

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗

Comparison of dynamical approximation schemes for nonlinear gravitaional clustering

We have recently conducted a controlled comparison of a number of approximations for gravitational clustering against the same n-body simulations. These include ordinary linear perturbation theory (Eulerian), the lognormal approximation, the adhesion approximation, the frozen-flow approximation, the Zel'dovich approximation (describable as first-order Lagrangian perturbation theory), and its second-order generalization. In the last two cases we also created new versions of the approximation by truncation, i.e., by smoothing the initial conditions with various smoothing window shapes and varying their sizes. The primary tool for comparing simulations to approximation schemes was cross-correlation of the evolved mass density fields, testing the extent to which mass was moved to the right place. The Zel'dovich approximation, with initial convolution with a Gaussian e(exp -k(exp 2)/k(sub G(exp 2)), where k(sub G) is adjusted to be just into the nonlinear regime of the evolved model (details in text) worked extremely well. Its second-order generalization worked slightly better. We recommend either n-body simulations or our modified versions of the Zel'dovich approximation, depending upon the purpose. The theoretical implication is that pancaking is implicit in all cosmological gravitational clustering, at least from Gaussian initial conditions, even when subcondensations are present. This in turn provides a natural explanation for the presence of sheets and filaments in the observed galaxy distribution. Use of the approximation scheme can permit extremely rapid generation of large numbers of realizations of model universes with good accuracy down to galaxy group mass scales.

Melott, Adrian L.↗