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At least 109 records · Page 6
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NASA NTRS2007

Hinode Observations of the Onset Stage of a Solar Filament Eruption

We used Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) filtergraph (FG) Stokes-V magnetogram observations, to study the early onset of a solar eruption that includes an erupting filament that we observe in TRACE EUV images. The filament undergoes a slow rise for at least 20min prior to its fast eruption and strong soft X-ray (SXR) flaring; such slow rises have been previously reported, and the new Hinode data elucidate the physical processes occurring during this period. XRT images show that during the slow-rise phase, an SXR sigmoid forms from apparent reconnection low in the sheared core field traced by the filament, and there is a low-level intensity peak in both EUV and SXRs during the slow rise. MDI and SOT FG Stokes-V magnetograms show that the pre-emption filament is along a neutral line between opposing-polarity enhanced network cells, and the SOT magnetograms show that these opposing fields are flowing together and canceling for at least six hours prior to eruption. From the MDI data we measured the canceling network fields to be approx. 40 G, and we estimated that approx. 10(exp 19)Mx of flux canceled during the five hours prior to eruption; this is only approx.5% of the total flux spanned by the eruption and flare, but apparently its tether-cutting cancellation was enough to destabilize the sigmoid field holding the filament and resulted in that field's eruption.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Hinode Observations of the Onset Stage of a Solar Filament Eruption

We use Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) filtergraph (FG) Stokes-V magnetogram observations, to study the early onset of a solar eruption that includes an erupting filament that we observe in TRACE EUV images. The filament undergoes a slow rise for at least 20 min prior to its fast eruption and strong soft X-ray flaring; such slow rises have been previously reported, and the new Hinode data elucidate the physical processes occurring during this period. XRT images show that during the slow-rise phase, a soft X-ray (SXR) sigmoid forms from apparent reconnection low in the sheared core field traced by the filament, and there is a low-level intensity peak in both EUV and SXRs during the slow rise. MDI and SOT FG/V magnetograms show that the pre-eruption filament is along a neutral line between opposing-polarity enhanced network cells, and the SOT magnetograms show that these opposing fields are flowing together and canceling for at least six hours prior to eruption. From the MDI data we measure the canceling network fields to be approx. 40 G, and we estimate that approx. 10(exp 19) Mx of flux canceled during the five hours prior to eruption; this is only approx. 5% of the total flux spanned by the eruption and flare, but apparently its tether-cutting cancellation was enough to destabilize the sigmoid field holding the filament and resulted in that field's eruption.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Systematic Independent Validation of Inner Heliospheric Models

This presentation is the first in a series which will provide independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. In this work we establish a set of measures to be used in validating this group of models. We use these procedures to generate a comprehensive set of results from the Wang- Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model which will be used as a baseline, or reference, against which to compare all other models. We also run a test of the validation procedures by applying them to a small set of results produced by the ENLIL Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. In future presentations we will validate other models currently hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), including a comprehensive validation of the ENLIL model. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is widely used to model the Solar wind, and is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth as much as four days into the future. Because it is so important to both the research and space weather forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically, and independently. In this paper we offer just such an independent and systematic validation. We report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and IMF polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests line of sight magnetograms. For this study we generated model results for monthly magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (SOLIS), Mount Wilson Observatory and the GONG network, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2068. We compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources, performance at quiet and active times, and estimate the effect of different empirical wind speed tunings. We also consider the ability of the WSA model to identify sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model

MacNeice, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.

MacNeice, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Limit of Free Magnetic Energy in Active Regions

By measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region fs magnetic field, it has been found previously that (1) there is an abrupt upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region fs magnetic flux content, and (2) the free energy is usually near its limit when the field explodes in a CME/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy ]limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, from measurement of Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograms, we find the magnetic condition that underlies the free ]energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free ]energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find that (1) in active regions at and near their free ]energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non ]free magnetic energy the potential field would have is approximately 1 in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free ]energy limit. This shows that most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than 1 cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches 1, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is 1 or greater, most active regions are compelled to explode. From these results we surmise the magnetic condition that determines the free ]energy limit is the ratio of the free magnetic energy to the non-free energy the active region fs field would have were it completely relaxed to its potential ]field configuration, and that this ratio is approximately 1 at the free-energy limit and in the main sequence of explosive active regions.

Moore, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2016

Converging Supergranular Flows and the Formation of Coronal Plumes

Earlier studies have suggested that coronal plumes are energized by magnetic reconnection between unipolar flux concentrations and nearby bipoles, even though magnetograms sometimes show very little minority-polarity flux near the footpoints of plumes. Here we use high-resolution extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images and magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to clarify the relationship between plume emission and the underlying photospheric field. We find that plumes form where unipolar network elements inside coronal holes converge to form dense clumps, and fade as the clumps disperse again. The converging flows also carry internetwork fields of both polarities. Although the minority-polarity flux is sometimes barely visible in the magnetograms, the corresponding EUV images almost invariably show loop-like features in the core of the plumes, with the fine structure changing on timescales of minutes or less. We conclude that the SDO observations are consistent with a model in which plume emission originates from interchange reconnection in converging flows, with the plume lifetime being determined by the approximately 1-day evolutionary timescale of the supergranular network. Furthermore, the presence of large EUV bright points and/or ephemeral regions is not a necessary precondition for the formation of plumes, which can be energized even by the weak, mixed-polarity internetwork fields swept up by converging flows.

Sun: corona↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Pi2 pulsations in the magnetosphere

Several substorms were observed at Explorer 45 in November and December 1971, and January and February 1972, while the satellite was in the evening quadrant near L = 5. These same substorms were identified in ground level magnetograms from auroral zone and low latitude stations. The satellite vector magnetic field records and rapid run ground magnetograms were examined for evidence of simultaneous occurrence of Pi2 magnetic pulsations. Pulsations which began abruptly were observed at the satellite during 7 of the 13 substorms studied and the pulsations occurred near the estimated time of substorm onset. These 7 pulsation events were also observed on the ground and 6 were identified in station comments as Pi2. All of the events observed were principally compressional waves, that is, pulsations in field magnitude. There were also transverse components elliptically polarized counter-clockwise looking along the field line. Periods observed ranged from 40 to 200 sec with 80 sec often the dominant period.

Lin, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comparison of high-latitude and mid-latitude ionospheric electric fields

Simultaneous measurements of the F region electric field by the incoherent scatter technique have been made at Chatanika, Alaska (65.1 deg N, 147.5 deg W), and Millstone Hill, Massachusetts (42.6 deg N, 71.5 deg W), on July 18-19 and Aug. 7-8, 1973. Good correlation was observed in the time variation of the perpendicular electric field at the two stations. Magnetic conditions for these days were relatively quiet with some variations evident from the high-latitude magnetograms and the Chatanika radar, but no distinct effect appeared on the mid-latitude magnetograms. Since magnetospheric electric fields are thought to be the source of high-latitude electric fields such as those observed at Chatanika, the good correlation in the perpendicular electric field for the two stations indicates that the magnetospheric originated electric fields have an appreciable effect down to at least L equals 3.2.

Carpenter, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A two-satellite study of the neutral atmosphere response to a major geomagnetic storm

Simultaneous measurements of neutral composition from both Esro 4 and Aeros-A have provided a complementary set of data for studying the temporal and spatial characteristics of the thermosphere during a major geomagnetic storm. From the correlative studies of Ar and N2 number densities, the magnetic index Aps, and ground-based magnetograms, it is found that the Ap index only reflects the gross features of atmospheric disturbances. Superposed on the global component are localized regions of 'hot spots' which appear correlated with ground-based magnetograms. Because of these localized disturbances, the interpretation of the atmospheric response to geomagnetic storms becomes ambiguous.

Trinks, H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The ground signatures of the expansion phase during multiple onset substorms

The paper examines the signatures of multiple-expansion-phase substorm onsets in night-time magnetograms as well as in recordings of auroral activity and energetic electron precipitation. Individual onsets of Pi2 magnetic pulsations observed at three widely spaced stations are used to define and time each onset accurately in order to distinguish between local variations in bay activity and fully developed substorm onsets; this method is equivalent to defining each new onset in terms of the brightening of an auroral arc and the formation of a westward-travelling surge. It is found that the formation of multiple auroral surges appears to be a fundamental feature of multiple-onset substorms, that each surge seems to be associated with a localized field-aligned current system which moves westward with the surge and perturbs the preexisting current wedge, and that this gives rise to the multiple-onset signatures observed on subauroral and low-latitude magnetograms. Since certain findings contradict existing models of multiple-onset events, an alternative model is proposed which is based on the fundamental role of surge activity and localized current wedges.

Pytte, T.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Measurements of magnetic fluxes and field strengths in the photospheric network

Digital pictures of an active-region network cell are presented in five quantities measured simultaneously: continuum intensity, line-center intensity, equivalent width, magnetogram signal, and magnetic-field strength. These maps are derived from computer analysis of circularly polarized line profiles of Fe I 5250.2-A; spectral and spatial resolution are 1/40 A and 1.5 arcsec, respectively. Measured Zeeman splittings show the existence of strong magnetic fields (1000-1800 G) at nearly all points with a magnetogram signal exceeding 125 G. The mean and rms deviation of the field strengths change by less than 20% over a factor-of-four range of fluxes. From the significant disparity between measured fluxes and field strengths, it is concluded that large flux patches (up to 4 arcsec across) consist of closely-packed unresolved filaments. The smallest filaments must be less than 0.7 arcsec in diameter. The dark component of the photospheric network, which appears to contain sizable transverse fields, is also observed.

Tarbell, T. D.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Magnetic properties of X-ray bright points

Using high-resolution Kitt Peak National Observatory magnetograms and sequences of simultaneous S-054 soft X-ray solar images, the properties of X-ray bright points (XBP) and ephemeral active regions (ER) are compared. All XBP appear on the magnetograms as bipolar features, except for very recently emerged or old and decayed XBP. The separation of the magnetic bipoles is found to increase with the age of the XBP, with an average emergence growth rate of 2.2 plus or minus 0.4 km per sec. The total magnetic flux in a typical XBP living about 8 hr is found to be about two times ten to the nineteenth power Mx. A proportionality is found between XBP lifetime and total magnetic flux, equivalent to about ten to the twentieth power Mx per day of lifetime.

Golub, L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Bright X-ray arcs and the emergence of solar magnetic flux

The Skylab S-056 and S-082A experiments and ground-based magnetograms have been used to study the role of bright X-ray arcs and the emergence of solar magnetic flux in the McMath region 12476. The S-056 X-ray images show a system of one or sometimes two bright arcs within a diffuse emitting region. The arcs seem to directly connect regions of opposite magnetic polarity in the photosphere. Magnetograms suggest the possible emergence of a magnetic flux. The width of the main arc is approximately 6 arcsec when most clearly defined, and the length is approximately 30-50 arcsec. Although the arc system is observed to vary in brightness over a period exceeding 24 hours, it remains fixed in orientation. The temperature of the main arc is approximately 3 x 10 to the 6th K. It is suggested that merging magnetic fields may provide the primary energy source, perhaps accompanied by resistive heating from a force-free current.

Chapman, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Inferring electric fields and currents from ground magnetometer data - A test with theoretically derived inputs

Advanced techniques considered by Kamide et al. (1981) seem to have the potential for providing observation-based high time resolution pictures of the global ionospheric current and electric field patterns for interesting events. However, a reliance on the proposed magnetogram-inversion schemes for the deduction of global ionospheric current and electric field patterns requires proof that reliable results are obtained. 'Theoretical' tests of the accuracy of the magnetogram inversion schemes have, therefore, been considered. The present investigation is concerned with a test, involving the developed KRM algorithm and the Rice Convection Model (RCM). The test was successful in the sense that there was overall agreement between electric fields and currents calculated by the RCM and KRM schemes.

Wolf, R. A.↗