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A network analysis of the long-term quality of life and mental distress of COVID-19 survivors 1 year after hospital discharge
Objectives COVID-19 survivors suffer from persistent mental distress and impaired quality of life (QOL) after recovery from the infection. However, the symptom-symptom interaction between these psychological variables remained unexplored. The present study aimed to determine the symptom network of mental distress (depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, fatigue, and post-traumatic stress disorder) and their association with QOL among 535 COVID-19 survivors 1 year after hospital discharge. Methods 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire, 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale, Chalder fatigue scale, Impact of Event Scale-Revised, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, and 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey were applied to measure depression, anxiety, fatigue, PTSD, sleep disturbances, and QOL, respectively. Two networks were estimated using Gaussian graphical model. Network 1 consisted of mental symptoms to determine the central and bridge symptoms. Network 2 additionally included QOL to determine which mental symptoms were mostly related to QOL. Results 60% of the COVID-19 survivors experienced mental distress 1 year after hospital discharge. Uncontrollable and excessive worry, psychomotor symptoms, intrusion, and daytime dysfunction were the most central symptoms. Daytime dysfunction and fatigue (especially mental fatigue and loss of energy) served as the bridge symptoms across the mental distress network and exhibited the most substantial association with QOL. Conclusion Our study demonstrated several key symptoms that played a vital role in mental distress and QOL among COVID-19 survivors. Prompt screening and targeted interventions for these symptoms might hold great promise in preventing mental distress and improving QOL in COVID-19 survivors.
Modeling Pilot State in Next Generation Aircraft Alert Systems
The Next Generation Air Transportation System will introduce new, advanced sensor technologies into the cockpit that must convey a large number of potentially complex alerts. Our work focuses on the challenges associated with prioritizing aircraft sensor alerts in a quick and efficient manner, essentially determining when and how to alert the pilot This "alert decision" becomes very difficult in NextGen due to the following challenges: 1) the increasing number of potential hazards, 2) the uncertainty associated with the state of potential hazards as well as pilot slate , and 3) the limited time to make safely-critical decisions. In this paper, we focus on pilot state and present a model for anticipating duration and quality of pilot behavior, for use in a larger system which issues aircraft alerts. We estimate pilot workload, which we model as being dependent on factors including mental effort, task demands. and task performance. We perform a mathematically rigorous analysis of the model and resulting alerting plans. We simulate the model in software and present simulated results with respect to manipulation of the pilot measures.
Complexity for Survival of Living Systems
A logical connection between the survivability of living systems and the complexity of their behavior (equivalently, mental complexity) has been established. This connection is an important intermediate result of continuing research on mathematical models that could constitute a unified representation of the evolution of both living and non-living systems. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO- 21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; and Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO- 30634) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72. As used here, living systems is synonymous with active systems and intelligent systems. The quoted terms can signify artificial agents (e.g., suitably programmed computers) or natural biological systems ranging from single-cell organisms at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. One of the requirements that must be satisfied in mathematical modeling of living systems is reconciliation of evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics. In the approach followed in this research, this reconciliation is effected by means of a model, inspired partly by quantum mechanics, in which the quantum potential is replaced with an information potential. The model captures the most fundamental property of life - the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The model incorporates the equations of classical dynamics, including Newton s equations of motion and equations for random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces. The equations of classical dynamics are coupled with corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces that are gradients of the information potential, which, in turn, is a function of the probability densities. The probability densities are associated with mental images both self-image and nonself images (images of external objects that can include other agents). The evolution of the probability densities represents mental dynamics. Then the interaction between the physical and metal aspects of behavior is implemented by feedback from mental to motor dynamics, as represented by the aforementioned fictitious forces. The interaction of a system with its self and nonself images affords unlimited capacity for increase of complexity. There is a biological basis for this model of mental dynamics in the discovery of mirror neurons that learn by imitation. The levels of complexity attained by use of this model match those observed in living systems. To establish a mechanism for increasing the complexity of dynamics of an active system, the model enables exploitation of a chain of reflections exemplified by questions of the form, "What do you think that I think that you think...?" Mathematically, each level of reflection is represented in the form of an attractor performing the corresponding level of abstraction with more details removed from higher levels. The model can be used to describe the behaviors, not only of biological systems, but also of ecological, social, and economics ones.
The 200- to 300-nm radiation field in the stratosphere - Comparison of models with observation
The SABE 1 experiment (Herman and Mentall, 1982) measured the direct and scattered solar radiation at wavelengths between 190 and 320 nm from a balloon floating at 40 km altitude. We use state of the art radiative transfer models together with cross sections and solar flux data commonly used in modeling of the stratosphere to calculate the direct and scattered radiation at 40 km. The comparison between theory and experiment made by Herman and Mentall (1982) is extended. Significant discrepancies in the ratio of the scattered to direct flux not discussed in their work were found in the Schumann-Runge band and above 280 nm. Possible reasons for the differences are discussed.
Sixteenth Annual Conference on Manual Control
Manual control is discussed in terms of operator modeling, measurement of human response, mental workload, pilot/operator opinion, effects of motion, aircraft displays, supervisory control, automobile driving, and remote manipulation.
A model of electronic map interpretation
This paper describes an experiment that provides data for the development of a cognitive model of pilot flight navigation. The model views navigation as a process involving the alignment of mental images with the perceptual view out of the cockpit. The data support a three stage model: (1) the perceptual encoding of the map display, (2) mental rotation of the mental image, and (3) comparison of the image to the environment. The variables that significantly influence the processes embodied in the model in decreasing importance are: speed of processing, display sequencing, map complexity, and rotation angle of the map. The model can be used as a preliminary computational tool in predicting the navigational component of pilot situational awareness.
POPEYE: A production rule-based model of multitask supervisory control (POPCORN)
Recent studies of relationships between subjective ratings of mental workload, performance, and human operator and task characteristics have indicated that these relationships are quite complex. In order to study the various relationships and place subjective mental workload within a theoretical framework, we developed a production system model for the performance component of the complex supervisory task called POPCORN. The production system model is represented by a hierarchial structure of goals and subgoals, and the information flow is controlled by a set of condition-action rules. The implementation of this production system, called POPEYE, generates computer simulated data under different task difficulty conditions which are comparable to those of human operators performing the task. This model is the performance aspect of an overall dynamic psychological model which we are developing to examine and quantify relationships between performance and psychological aspects in a complex environment.
10 New Insights in Climate Science 2020 - a Horizon Scan
We summarize some of the past year’s most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.
Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making
This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.
Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Imprint Human Performance Models to Inform Crew Size
HUMANS TO MARS, BUT HOW MANY? USING IMPRINT HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELS TO INFORM CREW SIZE Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The custom-built crew expertise model results will be presented in the training sub-tag. Here we present results of the three IMPRINT models. Two of these models were built using IMPRINT’s Operations Model capability, with detailed task networks for specific systems and scenarios allowing for a comprehensive mental workload analysis on certain crew positions. The third model was built using IMPRINT’s Force Model capability, allowing for a higher-level manpower analysis based on crew engagement in activities performed over a longer Mars transit scenario, and how those activities may be impacted by unplanned events and new tasking unique to the Mars mission. Differences between the models will be presented, as well as examples of model results and a discussion of how those results may inform future Mars mission manpower requirements, system design, and operating procedures.
Comparison of Expert Vocabulary Usage Patterns Between Mental Health and Nonmental Health Clinicians When Diagnosing Pediatric Anxiety Disorders
Objective: To compare the utilization patterns of expert vocabulary (EVo) in diagnosing pediatric anxiety between mental health and non-mental health clinical notes from electronic health records to understand the role of Evo in informing classification and decision-making in anxiety diagnoses. Study design: We conducted a retrospective study using a cohort less than age 25 from Cincinnati Children's Hospital including 897 685 patients with 61 586 446 notes. We analyzed EVo, collected from mental health clinicians, in both mental and nonmental health notes. We compared classification accuracy using EVo-based patient-level embedding from all clinical notes, mental-health notes, and nonmental health notes for 2 tasks: 1) pre-vs postdiagnosis anxiety patients, and 2) prediagnosis anxiety vs nonanxiety patients. Results: EVo usage was highest in prediagnosis anxiety, lower in nonanxiety, and lowest in post-diagnosis. Classification models using EVo features from all, mental-health, and non-mental health notes showed similar F1 scores for prediagnosis anxiety (0.70 ± 0.2 for 2 categories). For anxiety vs nonanxiety classification, all clinical and nonmental health notes had better F1 scores than mental-health notes (above 0.90 for 3 categories). There was a notable difference in class-wise performance across both tasks. Conclusions: There are significant differences in anxiety EVo use between mental health and nonmental health clinicians. Despite less anxiety-specific terminology, non-mental health notes still captured key aspects of patient presentations, emphasizing the importance of including all clinicians' notes in analysis. EVo's utility for anxiety classification is most effective in prediagnostic phases, suggesting the need for a dedicated diagnostic lexicon and further study before incorporating EVo into classification models.
Solar irradiance in the stratosphere - Implications for the Herzberg continuum absorption of O2
A set of solar irradiance observations is analyzed that were performed from the third Solar Absorption Balloon Experiment (SABE-3) as the payload ascended through the stratosphere from 32 to 39 km. Comparison of these data with calculations of the attenuated irradiance based on simultaneous ozone and pressure measurements made from the payload suggests a refinement of the cross section values used in photochemical models. More ultraviolet radiation in the 200-210 nm spectral region reaches the middle stratosphere than is predicted by the absorption data presently available. It is suggested that significantly smaller values for the Herzberg continuum of O2 be used in future models.
Photolysis rates based on Schumann-Runge band approximations and irradiance measurements
The photolysis rate (J3) for CF2Cl2(F-12) in the stratosphere has been computed for three altitudes using measured solar fluxes from a balloon borne spectrometer. The rate is compared with that obtained by computing the attenuated flux using effective cross sections appropriate for the Schumann-Runge bands (J1) (Allen and Frederick, 1982). The result shows that the error in the F-12 photolysis rate caused by using the Allen and Frederick approximation is about 10 percent (J1 less than J3) for altitudes between 32 and 38 km with solar zenith angles less than about 62 degrees. For species other than O2, this implies that the discrepancy in photolysis rates associated with the Schumann-Runge band approximations are not likely to be important. Within the Schumann-Runge band region the computed errors for F-12 photolysis are about 10.5 percent at 38.13 km and increase with decreasing altitude. If this error applies to O2 photolysis, there may be the possibility of an incorrect calculation of net odd oxygen production in photochemical models.
Electroencephalographic imaging of higher brain function
High temporal resolution is necessary to resolve the rapidly changing patterns of brain activity that underlie mental function. Electroencephalography (EEG) provides temporal resolution in the millisecond range. However, traditional EEG technology and practice provide insufficient spatial detail to identify relationships between brain electrical events and structures and functions visualized by magnetic resonance imaging or positron emission tomography. Recent advances help to overcome this problem by recording EEGs from more electrodes, by registering EEG data with anatomical images, and by correcting the distortion caused by volume conduction of EEG signals through the skull and scalp. In addition, statistical measurements of sub-second interdependences between EEG time-series recorded from different locations can help to generate hypotheses about the instantaneous functional networks that form between different cortical regions during perception, thought and action. Example applications are presented from studies of language, attention and working memory. Along with its unique ability to monitor brain function as people perform everyday activities in the real world, these advances make modern EEG an invaluable complement to other functional neuroimaging modalities.
Description of the LASSO Data Bundles Product
The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility began a pilot project in May 2015 to design a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to complement ARM’s extensive suite of measurements. This modeling capability has evolved into the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) datastream. The datastream, broadly termed data bundles, contains high-resolution model output, input files, observations for evaluation, and skill scores for the simulations. The initial focus of LASSO is on shallow convection at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. The availability of LES simulations with concurrent observations serves many purposes. LES helps bridge the scale gap between DOE ARM observations and models, and the use of routine LES adds value to observations. It provides a self-consistent representation of the atmosphere and a dynamical context for the observations. Further, it elucidates unobservable processes and properties. LASSO generates a simulation library for researchers that enables statistical approaches beyond a single-case mentality. It also provides tools necessary for modelers to reproduce the LES and conduct their own sensitivity experiments. The LASSO library of data bundles is designed to facilitate a wide range of research. For an observationalist, LASSO can help inform instrument remote-sensing retrievals, conduct observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), and test implications of radar scan strategies or flight paths. For a theoretician, LASSO can help calculate estimates of fluxes and co-variability of values, and test relationships without having to run the model personally. For a modeler, LASSO can help one know ahead of time which days have good forcing, have co-registered observations at high-resolution scales, and have simulation inputs and corresponding outputs to test parameterizations. Further details on the overall LASSO project are available at https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/modeling/lasso.
Discrete time modeling of heavy transport plane pilot behavior
The desire to improve flight safety leads to a classification of various flight troubles in three groups: (1) troubles from sensitivity to flight disturbances, (2) maneuverability troubles (whenever a correction maneuver induces an unexpected deviation on another parameter), and (3) pilot troubles (pilot overload when required attention is excessive or underload entailing a loss of vigilance). Sensitivity to disturbances and maneuverability of a given aircraft may be evaluated from the early design stage. Evaluation of the pilot behavior, however, may be realized only in actual flight or with a flight simulator, that is quite late in the development period. For this reason, it is desirable to have available, at the design stage, a model of the pilot behavior to command the differential system describing the envisioned aircraft. This aim implies two major requirements. First, the program must be compatible with a wide range of possible aircraft designs; ideally, the program should be self-learning. Second, mental load and overall pilot performance must be modeled.
Using EEG To Detect and Monitor Mental Fatigue
This project aims to develop EEG-based methods for detecting and monitoring mental fatigue. Mental fatigue poses a serious risk, even when performance is not apparently degraded. When such fatigue is associated with sustained performance of a single type of cognitive task it may be related to the metabolic energy required for sustained activation of cortical areas specialized for that task. The objective of this study was to adapt EEG to monitor cortical energy over a long period of performance of a cognitive task. Multielectrode event related potentials (ERPs) were collected every 15 minutes in nine subjects who performed a mental arithmetic task (algebraic sum of four randomly generated negative or positive digits). A new problem was presented on a computer screen 0.5 seconds after each response; some subjects endured for as long as three hours. ERPs were transformed to a quantitative measure of scalp electrical field energy. The average energy level at electrode P3 (near the left angular gyrus), 100-300 msec latency, was compared over the series of ERPs. For most subjects, scalp energy density at P3 gradually fell over the period of task performance and dramatically increased just before the subject was unable to continue the task. This neural response can be simulated for individual subjects using, a differential equation model in which it is assumed that the mental arithmetic task requires a commitment of metabolic energy that would otherwise be used for brain activities that are temporarily neglected. Their cumulative neglect eventually requires a reallocation of energy away from the mental arithmetic task.