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Soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands

Global warming alters surface water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P–E) and hence freshwater resources. However, the influence of land–atmosphere feedbacks on future P–E changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture (SM) strongly impacts future P–E changes, especially in drylands, by regulating evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture inflow. Using modelling and empirical approaches, we find a consistent negative SM feedback on P–E, which may offset ~60% of the decline in dryland P–E otherwise expected in the absence of SM feedbacks. The negative feedback is not caused by atmospheric thermodynamic responses to declining SM; rather, reduced SM, in addition to limiting evapotranspiration, regulates atmospheric circulation and vertical ascent to enhance moisture transport into drylands. This SM effect is a large source of uncertainty in projected dryland P–E changes, underscoring the need to better constrain future SM changes and improve the representation of SM–atmosphere processes in models.

precipitation↗

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗

Planetary Boundary Layer Height Estimates From ICESat-2 and CATS Backscatter Measurements

The lowest layer of the atmosphere in which all human activity occurs is called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). All physical interactions with the surface, such as heat and moisture transport, pollution dispersion and transport happen in this relatively shallow layer. The ability to understand and model the complex interactions that occur in the PBL is very important to air quality, weather prediction and climate modeling. A fundamental and physically important property of the PBL is its thickness or height. This work presents two methods to obtain global PBL height using satellite lidar data from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) and the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS). The first method is a straightforward backscatter threshold technique and the second is a machine learning approach known as a Convolutional Neural Network. The PBL height retrievals from the two methods are compared with each other and with PBL height from the NASA GEOS MERRA-2 reanalysis. The lidar-retrieved PBL heights have a high degree of spatial correlation with the model heights but are generally higher over ocean (∼400 m) and over northern hemisphere high latitude regions (∼1,000 m). Over mid-latitude and tropical land areas, the satellite estimated PBL heights agree well with model mid-day estimates. This work demonstrates the feasibility of using satellite lidar backscatter measurements to obtain global PBL height estimates, as well as determining seasonal and regional variability of PBL height.

Stephen P Palm↗

High Latitude Atmospheric Rivers: Teleconnections and Impacts

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale features that act as moisture transport vehicles by moving water vapor poleward. They are typically found in storm tracks and often have profound implications for regional hydroclimate. For high latitude locales such as Antarctica and the Arctic, ARs are fewer in number but often have an outsized impact by either producing significant snow accumulation events, or, depending on their thermal characteristics, initiating melt events on ice sheets, ice shelves, and sea ice. In this study, we apply both reanalysis and climate model data to evaluate high latitude ARs for both the Arctic and Antarctic in the context of teleconnections and modes of variability. Specifically, we fold in both MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis as well as historical and climate change simulations from the CESM2 (Community Earth System Model, Version 2) and E3SMv2 (Energy Exascale Earth System Model, v2) with multiple ensemble members to better understand natural variability versus climate change signals. An overview of AR climatology and impacts will be presented, including a baseline uncertainty quantification analysis using data from ARTMIP (the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project). AR impacts during specific modes of variability will be characterized by diagnosing precipitation and boundary layer temperature associated with Ars influencing the cryosphere. Modes of variability investigated include the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), PSA2 (Pacific South American Mode 2), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), and the AO (Arctic Oscillation).

Atmospheric Rivers↗

Quantifying Spatial Drought Propagation Potential in North America Using Complex Network Theory

Droughts have a dominant three-dimensional (3-D) spatiotemporal structure typically spanning hundreds of kilometers and often lasting for months to years. Here, we introduced a novel framework to explore the 3-D structure of the evolution of droughts based on network theory concepts. The proposed framework is applied to identify critical source regions responsible for large-scale drought onsets during 1901–2014 for the North American continent using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). We built a spatial network connecting the drought onset timings for the North American continent. Using a spatially weighted network partitioning algorithm, the whole continent is then classified into regional spatial drought networks (RSN), where droughts are more likely to propagate within these regional systems. Finally, a customized network metric was applied to identify locations (source regions) where the drought onsets further propagate to other areas within the regional spatial network. Our results indicated that the West coast, Texas coastal region, and Southeastern Arkansas as major source regions through which atmospheric drought propagates to Western, South Central, and Eastern North America. The formation of drought source regions are due to presence of high pressure ridges and anomalous wind patterns. Furthermore, our results indicate that the drought propagation from these source regions may be due to inadequate moisture transport. The proposed framework can help to develop an early warning detection system for droughts and other spatially extensive extreme events such as heatwaves and floods.

Goutam Konapala↗

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin↗

Influence of Lower Tropospheric Moisture on Local Soil Moisture-Precipitation Feedback Over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere coupling (LAC) has long been studied focusing on land surface and atmospheric boundary layer processes. However, the influence of lower tropospheric (LT) humidity on LAC remains largely unexplored. In this study, we use radiosonde observations from the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) site and an entrained parcel buoyancy model to investigate the impact of LT humidity on LAC there during the warm season (May–September). We quantify the effect of LT humidity on convective buoyancy by measuring the difference between the 2–4 km vertically integrated buoyancy with and without the influence of background LT humidity. Our results show that, under dry soil conditions, anomalously high LT humidity is necessary to produce the buoyancy profiles required for afternoon precipitation events (APEs). These APEs under dry soil moisture cannot be explained by commonly used local land-atmosphere coupling indices such as the convective triggering potential/low-level humidity index (CTP/HI Low ), which do not account for the influence of the LT humidity. On the other hand, consideration of LT humidity is unnecessary to explain APEs under wet soil moisture conditions, suggesting the boundary layer moisture alone could be sufficient to generate the required buoyancy profiles. These findings highlight the need to consider the impact of LT humidity, which is often decoupled from the humidity near the surface and largely controlled by moisture transport, in understanding land-atmospheric feedbacks over dry soil conditions, especially during droughts or dry spells over the SGP.

Gaoyun Wang↗

Simulation of the modern arctic climate by the NCAR CCM1

The National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1's) simulation of the modern arctic climate is evaluated by comparing a five-year seasonal cycle simulation with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The sea level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, vertical cross section of height, 500-hPa height, total energy budget, and moisture budget are analyzed to investigate the biases in the simulated arctic climate. The results show that the model simulates anomalously low SLP, too much storm activity, and anomalously strong baroclinicity to the west of Greenland and vice versa to the east of Greenland. This bias is mainly attributed to the model's topographic representation of Greenland. First, the broadened Greenland topography in the model distorts the path of cyclone waves over the North Atlantic Ocean. Second, the model oversimulates the ridge over Greenland, which intensifies its blocking effect and steers the cyclone waves clockwise around it and hence produces an artificial circum-Greenland trough. These biases are significantly alleviated when the horizontal resolution increases to T42. Over the Arctic basin, the model simulates large amounts of low-level (stratus) clouds in winter and almost no stratus in summer, which is opposite to the observations. This bias is mainly due to the location of the simulated SLP features and the negative anomaly of storm activity, which prevent the transport of moisture into this region during summer but favor this transport in winter. The moisture budget analysis shows that the model's net annual precipitation (P-E) between 70 deg N and the North Pole is 6.6 times larger than the observations and the model transports six times more moisture into this region. The bias in the advection term is attributed to the positive moisture fixer scheme and the distorted flow pattern. However, the excessive moisture transport into the Arctic basin does not solely result from the advection term. The contribution by the moisture fixer is as large as from advection. By contrast, the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme used in the CCM2 significantly improves the moisture simulation for this region; however, globally the error is as serious as for the positive moisture fixer scheme. Finally, because the model has such serious problems in simulating the present arctic climate, its simulations of past and future climate change for this region are questionable.

Bromwich, David H.↗

The modification and application of Kuo's parameterization of cumulus convection in middle latitudes

An evaluation to reveal physical insight into the involved mechanisms through a combination of the large scale heat and moisture budgets and formulation of the latent heat released was performed. To improve upon the treatment of the interaction of deep convection with the environment, modifications consisting of considerations of the large scale moisture supply and of the vertical transport of moisture and of dry static energy inside the cloud are made. Also, a two layer cloud ensemble model is combined with the modified scheme. An examination of the modified scheme is performed by combining the large scale heat and moisture budgets and the modified formulation of the latent heat released. The modified parameterization procedures are compared with the original scheme, and the results of tests of both schemes are discussed. A variational optimization scheme is developed to analyze the wind field such that the integrated continuity equation and the global boundary condition are satisfied.

Liang, W. J.↗

Radiative-convective model with an explicit hydrologic cycle. 2: Sensitivity to large changes in solar forcing

The one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium model with an explicit hydrologic cycle introduced in part 1 is used to study the sensitivity of the model's atmosphere to large changes in the solar forcing, when various cumulus convection parameterizations are used. When the concentration of the absorbing as in the atmosphere is temperature dependent, equilibrium is impossible for values of the solar forcing larger than a critical value. This result is referred to as a runaway greenhouse. The cumulus convection parameterization schemes currently in use in global climate models (GCMs) employ different assumptions about moistening. This causes the critical solar forcing above which a runaway greenhouse occurs to be very sensitive to the cumulus convection scheme employed. Furthermore, we show that the sensitivity of the equilibrium temperature to changes in the solar forcing depends crucially on the microphysics of cumulus convection. For fixed cloud conditions, the critical forcing for a runaway greenhouse to occur is between approximately 1.22 and 1.49 times the global mean value for the Earth, and for clear sky conditions, it is a few percent lower. The runaway greenhouse in the experiments with the mass flux schemes generally occurs more rapidly than in the experiments with the adjustment schemes. In addition, the inability of the hard convective adjustment scheme to produce an efficient vertical transport of moisture, together with the saturation requirement for convection to occur, leads to the breakdown of the radiative-convective equilibria when other processes are not available to provide the necessary vertical transport of water vapor.

Renno, Nilton O.↗

Evidence for Tropopause Layer Moistening by Convection During CRYSTAL-FACE

Measurements and analysis of the impact of deep convection on tropopause layer moisture are easily confounded by difficulties making precise observations with sufficient spatial coverage before and after convective events and difficulties distinguishing between changes due to local convection versus large-scale advection. The interactions between cloud microphysics and dynamics in the convective transport of moisture into the tropopause layer also result in a sufficiently complex and poorly characterized system to allow for considerable freedom in theoretical models of stratosphere-troposphere exchange. In this work we perform detailed large-eddy simulations with an explicit cloud microphysics model to study the impact of deep convection on tropopause layer moisture profiles observed over southern Florida during CRYSTALFACE. For four days during the campaign (July 11, 16, 28, and 29) we initialize a 100-km square domain with temperature and moisture profiles measured prior to convection at the PARSL ground site, and initiate convection with a warm bubble that produces an anvil at peak elevations in agreement with lidar and radar observations on that day. Comparing the moisture field after the anvils decay with the initial state, we find that convection predominantly moistens the tropopause layer (as defined by minimum temperature and minimum potential temperature lapse rate), although some drying is also predicted in localized layers. We will also present results of sensitivity tests designed to separate the roles of cloud microphysics and dynamics.

Ackerman, A.↗

Three dimensional modeling of cirrus during the 1991 FIRE IFO 2: Detailed process study

A three-dimensional model of cirrus cloud formation and evolution, including microphysical, dynamical, and radiative processes, was used to simulate cirrus observed in the FIRE Phase 2 Cirrus field program (13 Nov. - 7 Dec. 1991). Sulfate aerosols, solution drops, ice crystals, and water vapor are all treated as interactive elements in the model. Ice crystal size distributions are fully resolved based on calculations of homogeneous freezing of solution drops, growth by water vapor deposition, evaporation, aggregation, and vertical transport. Visible and infrared radiative fluxes, and radiative heating rates are calculated using the two-stream algorithm described by Toon et al. Wind velocities, diffusion coefficients, and temperatures were taken from the MAPS analyses and the MM4 mesoscale model simulations. Within the model, moisture is transported and converted to liquid or vapor by the microphysical processes. The simulated cloud bulk and microphysical properties are shown in detail for the Nov. 26 and Dec. 5 case studies. Comparisons with lidar, radar, and in situ data are used to determine how well the simulations reproduced the observed cirrus. The roles played by various processes in the model are described in detail. The potential modes of nucleation are evaluated, and the importance of small-scale variations in temperature and humidity are discussed. The importance of competing ice crystal growth mechanisms (water vapor deposition and aggregation) are evaluated based on model simulations. Finally, the importance of ice crystal shape for crystal growth and vertical transport of ice are discussed.

Jensen, Eric J.↗

Transport and mixing in atmosphere

Standard meteorological data to compute transports of momentum, sensible heat and moisture in atmosphere - transport and mixing in atmosphere

METEOROLOGY↗

Satellite views of hurricane Camille

Three periods within the life cycle of Hurricane Camille (1969) are studied with radiometric and camera measurements from Nimbus-3 and camera information from ATS-3 in conjunction with conventional information. These periods are the deepening phase, the interaction of Camille with midlatitude westerlies, and the excessive rain producing period when the cyclone was over the central Appalachian Mountain. Just prior to significant deepening, the Nimbus-3 Medium Resolution Infrared Radiometer (MRIR) showed that a pronounced feeder band had formed southeast of the center which was associated with the rapid transport of moisture into the storm circulation. During the rapid deepening phase the MRIR measurements indicated the development of large scale subsidence throughout the troposphere northwest of the center. When Camille was over the lower Mississippi Valley it acted as an obstruction to the envrionmental wind. A region of widespread subsidence was created west and north of the cyclone center. Increased cloud-top elevations, back to the levels reached when Camille was an intense cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, were estimated from the Nimbus-3 High Resolution Infrared Radiometer (HRIR) measurements on August 20, 1969, when Camille produced rains of major flood proportions near the east slopes of the Appalachians in central Virginia.

Shenk, W. E.↗

Flexible fluoropolymer filled protective coatings

Metal oxide films such as SiO2 are known to provide an effective barrier to the transport of moisture as well as gaseous species through polymeric films. Such thin film coatings have a tendency to crack upon flexure of the polymeric substrate. Sputter co-deposition of SiO2 with 4 to 15 percent fluoropolymers was demonstrated to produce thin films with glass-like barrier properties that have significant increases in strain to failure over pure glass films which improves their tolerance to flexure on polymeric substrates. Deposition techniques capable of producing these films on polymeric substrates are suitable for durable food packaging and oxidation/corrosion protection applications.

Banks, Bruce A.↗

Anomalies in the South American Monsoon Induced by Aerosols

We have investigated the direct effects of aerosols on the water cycle of the South American monsoon using the NASA finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM). Global aerosol forcings are computed from radiative transfer functions derived from global distributions of five species of aerosols, i.e., dust, black carbon, organic carbon, sulphate and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. Comparing fvGCM experiments without aerosol forcing, and with different combinations of aerosol forcing, we evaluate the impacts of aerosol direct heating on the onset, maintenance and evolution of the South American summer monsoon. We find that during the pre-monsoon season (September-October-November) Saharan dust contribute to heating of the atmosphere over the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic/Africa region through the elevated heat pump mechanism. The heating generates an anomalous Walker circulation with sinking motion, and low level northeasterlies over the Caribbean and northwestern South America. The low level flow is blocked by the Andes, and turn south and southeastward, increasing the low level jet (LLJ) along the eastern slope of the Andes. The increased LLJ transports more moisture from the Atlantic and the Amazon, enhancing the moisture convergence over subtropical land regions of South America. The moisture convergence was further accelerated by atmospheric heating by biomass burning over the Amazon. The net results of the dust and biomass heating are: a) an advance of the monsoon rainy season, b) an enhanced LLJ and c) a shifting the South America monsoon land precipitation equatorward, with increased rain over southern Brazil and reduced rain over the La Plata basin. ramifications of this elevated heating heat pump mechanism in aerosol monsoon water cycle on climate variability and change will be discussed. The ramifications of this "elevated heating heat pump" mechanism in aerosol monsoom water cycle on climate variability and change will be discussed.

Lau, K. M. William↗

Electrification in Hurricanes over the Tropical Americas: Implication for Stratospheric Water Vapor

This study explores the relation between lightning activity and water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over hurricane systems in the Tropical Americas. The hypothesis herein is that hurricanes that exhibit enhanced lightning activity are associated with stronger updrafts that can transport more moisture directly into the TTL (and subsequently into the tropical stratosphere) or even directly into the tropical stratosphere over this region. The TTL over the Tropical Americas, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is of particular interest, because summertime cold point tropopause is the lowest in height and thus the warmest in temperature over the tropics. The latter condition implies higher saturation values and thus potential for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. Climate forecast is very sensitive to stratospheric water vapor abundance, because of the key role that water vapor plays in regulating the chemical and radiative properties of the stratosphere. Given the potential for increases in hurricane intensity and frequency under predicted warmer conditions, it becomes essential to understand the effect of hurricanes on stratospheric water vapor. In this study, we use a combination of ground and space-borne observations as well as trajectory calculations. The observations include: cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), geostationary infrared observations from the National Climatic Data Center Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data set, cloud properties from Aqua-MODIS, and water vapor from Aura-MLS. We analyze hurricanes from the 2005 season when Aura-MLS data are available, namely: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Our analysis consists of examining CG lightning, cloud-top properties, and TTL water vapor (i.e., 100 and 147 mb) over the hurricane while it remains over water in the Tropical Americas region. We investigate daily as well as diurnal statistical properties. The hurricanes analyzed in this study showed that lightning activity is negatively correlated with minimum infrared brightness temperature and positively correlated with 100-mb water vapor. An examination of the maxima in water vapor observed over the hurricane not only shows larger magnitudes, but also larger differences between water vapor averages and water vapor maxima over the hurricane as lightning activity increases. Trajectory calculations are performed using the Flextra model in order to investigate the fate of the moister air masses found in the TTL.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of both daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat wave days than daytime heat wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the US, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity and/or low-level temperature advection. In the Midwest US, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Extreme events↗