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NASA NTRS2003

The Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics

The Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics is dedicated to the advancement of knowledge in Earth and planetary science, by conducting innovative research using space technology. The Laboratory's mission and activities support the work and new initiatives at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The Laboratory's success contributes to the Earth Science Directorate as a national resource for studies of Earth from Space. The Laboratory is part of the Earth Science Directorate based at the GSFC in Greenbelt, MD. The Directorate itself is comprised of the Global Change Data Center (GCDC), the Space Data and Computing Division (SDCD), and four science Laboratories, including Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics, Laboratory for Atmospheres, and Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes all in Greenbelt, MD. The fourth research organization, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), is in New York, NY. Relevant to NASA's Strategic Plan, the Laboratory ensures that all work undertaken and completed is within the vision of GSFC. The philosophy of the Laboratory is to balance the completion of near term goals, while building on the Laboratory's achievements as a foundation for the scientific challenges in the future.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2015

Spin-Up and Tuning of the Global Carbon Cycle Model Inside the GISS ModelE2 GCM

Planetary carbon cycle involves multiple phenomena, acting at variety of temporal and spacial scales. The typical times range from minutes for leaf stomata physiology to centuries for passive soil carbon pools and deep ocean layers. So, finding a satisfactory equilibrium state becomes a challenging and computationally expensive task. Here we present the spin-up processes for different configurations of the GISS Carbon Cycle model from the model forced with MODIS observed Leaf Area Index (LAI) and prescribed ocean to the prognostic LAI and to the model fully coupled to the dynamic ocean and ocean biology. We investigate the time it takes the model to reach the equilibrium and discuss the ways to speed up this process. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS ModelE2) is currently equipped with all major algorithms necessary for the simulation of the Global Carbon Cycle. The terrestrial part is presented by Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), which includes leaf biophysics, prognostic phenology and soil biogeochemistry module (based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford model). The ocean part is based on the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM). The transport of atmospheric CO2 is performed by the atmospheric part of ModelE2, which employs quadratic upstream algorithm for this purpose.

Climate model↗

NASA NTRS2018

Connecting Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions to Local and Remote Precipitation Responses

The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160-240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the significance of precipitation responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. Global and regional precipitation mostly increases when we reduce regional aerosol emissions in the models, with the strongest responses occurring for sulfur dioxide emissions reductions from Europe and the United States. Precipitation responses to aerosol emissions reductions are largest in the tropics and project onto the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regressing precipitation onto an Indo-Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient index (a proxy for ENSO) indicates that the ENSO component of the precipitation response to regional aerosol removal can be as large as 20% of the total simulated response. Precipitation increases in the Sahel in response to aerosol reductions in remote regions because an anomalous interhemispheric temperature gradient alters the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This mechanism holds across multiple aerosol reduction simulations and models.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Non-Monotonic Response of the Climate System to Abrupt CO2 Forcing

We explore the climate system response to abrupt CO2 forcing, spanning the range 1 × to 8×CO2, with two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land models: the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1-G (GISS-E2.1-G) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LE). We find that the effective climate sensitivity is a non-monotonic function of CO2 in both models, reaching a minimum at 3×CO2 for GISS-E2.1-G, and 4×CO2 for CESM-LE. A similar non-monotonic response is found in Northern Hemisphere surface temperature, sea-ice, precipitation, the latitude of zero precipitation minus-evaporation, and the strength of the Hadley cell. Interestingly, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapses when non-monotonicity appears and does not recover for larger CO2 forcings. Analyzing the climate response over the same CO2 range with slab ocean versions of the same models, we demonstrate that the climate system's non-monotonic response is linked to ocean dynamics.

Non-monotonic response↗

NASA NTRS2020

Laboratory For Atmospheres 1996 Annual Report

A broad and vigorous science program in NASA is vital for the advancement of knowledge through space research.Scientists at NASA in collaboration with outside scientists play a key role in conceiving new space missions, providing mission requirements, and carrying out research oriented towards explaining the behavior of Earth's and other planetary systems. NASA scientists also supply outside scientists with technical assistance and scientific data.The Laboratory for Atmospheres serves as the focal point of a broad theoretical and experimental research program. The goal of the program is to study all aspects of the atmospheres of the Earth and other planets, including their structural, dynamical, radiative, and chemical properties. The Laboratory is one of four science laboratories of the at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The Laboratory is located in Greenbelt, MD along with the and the. , located in New York, NY, is the fourth science Laboratory in the Directorate. The Directorate also includes the Global Change Data Center and the Space Data and Computing Division (SDCD). The GSFC is the lead center for science and management of the, which is one of the four NASA enterprises. Earth Sciences Directorate Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE)This report is a general statement of the purpose and philosophy of the Laboratory and of its role within NASA. It also includes a broad description of the research areas; information on human resources, scientific interactions, and outreach activities with the outside community; and a selection of the major accomplishments achieved in the Laboratory in calendar year 1996.

Steven E. Platnick↗

NASA NTRS2004

Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

Rodriquez, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which eventually resurfaces with the global thermohaline circulation especially in the Southern Ocean. Because of the reduced primary production and carbon export in GISSEH compared to GISSER, the biological pump efficiency, i.e., the ratio of primary production and carbon export at 75 m, is half in the GISSEH of that in GISSER, The Southern Ocean emerges as a key region where the CO2 flux is as sensitive to biological parameterizations as it is to physical parameterizations. The fidelity of ocean mixing in the Southern Ocean compared to observations is shown to be a good indicator of the magnitude of the biological pump efficiency regardless of physical model choice.

Antarctic Ocean↗

NASA NTRS2011

Global Distribution of Cloud Droplet Number Concentration, Autoconversion Rate, and Aerosol Indirect Effect Under Diabatic Droplet Activation

This study presents a global assessment of the sensitivity of droplet number to diabatic activation (i.e., including effects from entrainment of dry air) and its first-order tendency on indirect forcing and autoconversion. Simulations were carried out with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) atmospheric and transport model using climatological metereorological fields derived from the former NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the NASA Finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II (GISS) GCM. Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is calculated using a physically based prognostic parameterization that explicitly includes entrainment effects on droplet formation. Diabatic activation results in lower CDNC, compared to adiabatic treatment of the process. The largest decrease in CDNC (by up to 75 percent) was found in the tropics and in zones of moderate CCN concentration. This leads to a global mean effective radius increase between 0.2-0.5 micrometers (up to 3.5 micrometers over the tropics), a global mean autoconversion rate increase by a factor of 1.1 to 1.7 (up to a factor of 4 in the tropics), and a 0.2-0.4 W m(exp -2) decrease in indirect forcing. The spatial patterns of entrainment effects on droplet activation tend to reduce biases in effective radius (particularly in the tropics) when compared to satellite retrievals. Considering the diabatic nature of ambient clouds, entrainment effects on CDNC need to be considered in GCM studies of the aerosol indirect effect.

Barahona, Donifan↗

NASA NTRS2002

Laboratory for Atmospheres: Philosophy, Organization, Major Activities, and 2001 Highlights

How can we improve our ability to predict the weather? How is the Earth's climate changing? What can the atmospheres of other planets teach us about our own? The Laboratory for Atmospheres is helping to answer these and other scientific questions. The Laboratory conducts a broad theoretical and experimental research program studying all aspects of the atmospheres of the Earth and other planets, including their structural, dynamical, radiative, and chemical properties. Vigorous research is central to NASA's exploration of the frontiers of knowledge. NASA scientists play a key role in conceiving new space missions, providing mission requirements., and carrying out research to explore the behavior of planetary systems, including, notably, the Earth's. Our Laboratory's scientists also supply outside scientists with technical assistance and scientific data to further investigations not immediately addressed by NASA itself. The Laboratory for Atmospheres is a vital participant in NASA's research program. The Laboratory is part of the Earth Sciences Directorate based at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The Directorate itself comprises the Global Change Data Center; the Earth and Space Data Computing Division; three laboratories: the Laboratory for Atmospheres, the Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics, and the Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes; and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, New York. In this report, you will find a statement of our philosophy and a description of our role in NASA's mission. You'll also find a broad description of our research and a summary of our scientists' major accomplishments in 2001. The report also presents useful information on human resources, scientific interactions, and outreach activities with the outside community. For your convenience, we have published a version of this report on the Internet. Our Web site includes links to additional information about the Laboratory's Offices and Branches. You can find us on the World Wide Web at http://atmospheres.gsfc.nasa.gov.

Hoegy, Walter R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations.

ocean heat content↗

NASA NTRS2020

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Here we examine the large‐scale transport characteristics of the new ``Middle Atmosphere" NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model (E2.2). First we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere‐only simulations integrated with interactive trace gas and aerosol chemistry. Compared to lower vertical resolution model versions, E2.2 exhibits improved tropical ascent and older stratospheric mean ages that are more consistent with observed values. In the troposphere, poleward transport to the Arctic and interhemispheric mean ages in E2.2 are comparable to models participating in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. In addition to validating E2.2 we also assess its ``transport sensitivity" using the coupled atmosphere‐ocean abrupt 4xCO2 and transient 1%CO2 simulations submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, along with a 2xCO2 simulation used to evaluate the linearity of the transport circulation's response to increased CO2. We show that decreases (increases) in a stratospheric mean age (idealized surface loss) tracer scale linearly with increased lower stratospheric upwelling, which also increases linearly with warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 experiments constrained with (fixed) pre‐industrial SSTs are also used to quantify the relative importance of rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks to the transport circulation responses in the model. Finally, sensitivity experiments are presented to illustrate the impact of changes in the convective parameterization on stratospheric transport.

GISS Model E2.2↗

NASA NTRS2013

Software Engineering Tools for Scientific Models

Software tools were constructed to address issues the NASA Fortran development community faces, and they were tested on real models currently in use at NASA. These proof-of-concept tools address the High-End Computing Program and the Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Program. Two examples are the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric model in Cell Fortran on the Cell Broadband Engine, and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled atmosphere- ocean model called ModelE, written in fixed format Fortran.

Abrams, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2012

Polarimetric Retrievals of Surface and Cirrus Clouds Properties in the Region Affected by the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

In 2010, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) performed several aerial surveys over the region affected by the oil spill caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon offshore platform. The instrument was deployed on the NASA Langley B200 aircraft together with the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL), which provides information on the distribution of the aerosol layers beneath the aircraft, including an accurate estimate of aerosol optical depth. This work illustrates the merits of polarization measurements in detecting variations of ocean surface properties linked to the presence of an oil slick. In particular, we make use of the degree of linear polarization in the glint region, which is severely affected by variations in the refractive index but insensitive to the waviness of the water surface. Alterations in the surface optical properties are therefore expected to directly affect the polarization response of the RSP channel at 2264 nm, where both molecular and aerosol scattering are negligible and virtually all of the observed signal is generated via Fresnel reflection at the surface. The glint profile at this wavelength is fitted with a model which can optimally estimate refractive index, wind speed and direction, together with aircraft attitude variations affecting the viewing geometry. The retrieved refractive index markedly increases over oil-contaminated waters, while the apparent wind speed is significantly lower than in adjacent uncontaminated areas, suggesting that the slick dampens high-frequency components of the ocean wave spectrum. The constraint on surface reflectance provided by the short-wave infrared channels is a cornerstone of established procedures to retrieve atmospheric aerosol microphysical parameters based on the inversion of the RSP multispectral measurements. This retrieval, which benefits from the ancillary information provided by the HSRL, was in this specific case hampered by prohibitive variability in atmospheric conditions (very inhomogeneous aerosol distribution and cloud cover). Although the results presented for the surface are essentially unaffected, we discuss the results obtained by typing algorithms in sorting the complex mix of aerosol types, and show evidence of oriented ice in cirrus clouds present in the area. In this context, polarization measurements at 1880 nm were used to infer ice habit and cirrus optical depth, which was found in the subvisual/threshold-visible regime, confirming the utility of the aforementioned RSP channel for the remote sensing of even thin cold clouds.

Polarization↗

NASA NTRS2014

TPSAS-NF1676L-19256-DND

The NASA/GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges project) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produces longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes for the surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) (see, Stackhouse et al., 2011, GEWEX News). The primary inputs of cloud and meteorology data have been undergoing improvements in quality and spatial and temporal resolution. In anticipation of the release of these data, the SRB longwave flux algorithm has been updated both to accommodate these data and to improve the algorithm used in deriving radiative fluxes. Changes in the inputs and algorithm are as follows: - Synchronized algorithm with version used by NASA CERES (Rose et al. 2006). - Atmospheric aerosols were added. - Beta version of ISCCP H cloud properties used. - Beta version of ISCCP nnHIRS temperature and humidity used. - Option of using a newly derived beta Princeton land surface temperature and diurnal Seaflux sea surface temperature as surface skin temperature added - Updated ozone profile with GISS ozone and MEaSUREs GOZCARDS. - Updated maps of surface topography, vegetation type, and snow/ice by ISCCP. The beta GLW v4 IP has enhanced the output fluxes by adding pristine-sky (no clouds or aerosols) fluxes. The new version also computes fluxes at selected atmospheric levels (including the tropopause) rather than just at the surface and TOA. The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of the above changes on the surface and top-of-atmosphere fluxes. These fluxes are compared to the previous version (release 3.1). We show preliminary results for the mid-seasonal months of 2007.

J Colleen Mikovitz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A NASA GISTEMP Observational Uncertainty Ensemble: Regional and Monthly Uncertainty

The historical global temperature record is an essential data product for quantifying the variability and change of the Earth system. In recent years, better characterization of observational uncertainty in global and hemispheric trends has become available, but the methodologies are not necessarily applicable to analyses at smaller regional areas, or monthly means, where station sparsity and other systematic issues contribute to greater uncertainty. This work details a gridded uncertainty ensemble of historical temperature anomalies from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product (GISTEMP) product. This ensemble characterizes the complex spatial and temporal correlation structure of uncertainty in gridded historical temperature, enabling proper uncertainty propagation for climate and social science at regional and monthly scales. This work details the methodology for generating the uncertainty ensemble, key statistics of the uncertainty evolution over space and time, and provides best practices for using the uncertainty ensemble in future studies. Summary statistics from the uncertainty ensemble are in good agreement with production GISTEMP. Two applications of the uncertainty ensemble are also presented. First, the warmest year on record is shown to most likely be 2016 with a 53.2% chance and 2020 as the second most likely with a 44.4% chance. Second, it is shown that the arctic is warming 2.5 - 5 times faster than the globe, significantly faster than the regularly quoted twice as fast.

GISTEMP↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Glory Program: Global Science from a Unique Spacecraft Integration

The Glory program is an Earth and Solar science mission designed to broaden science community knowledge of the environment. The causes and effects of global warming have become a concern in recent years and Glory aims to contribute to the knowledge base of the science community. Glory is designed for two functions: one is solar viewing to monitor the total solar irradiance and the other is observing the Earth s atmosphere for aerosol composition. The former is done with an active cavity radiometer, while the latter is accomplished with an aerosol polarimeter sensor to discern atmospheric particles. The Glory program is managed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with Orbital Sciences in Dulles, VA as the prime contractor for the spacecraft bus, mission operations, and ground system. This paper will describe some of the more unique features of the Glory program including the integration and testing of the satellite and instruments as well as the science data processing. The spacecraft integration and test approach requires extensive analysis and additional planning to ensure existing components are successfully functioning with the new Glory components. The science mission data analysis requires development of mission unique processing systems and algorithms. Science data analysis and distribution will utilize our national assets at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP). The Satellite was originally designed and built for the Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL) mission, which was terminated in the middle of integration and testing due to payload development issues. The bus was then placed in secure storage in 2001 and removed from an environmentally controlled container in late 2003 to be refurbished to meet the Glory program requirements. Functional testing of all the components was done as a system at the start of the program, very different from a traditional program. The plan for Glory is to minimize any changes to the spacecraft in order to meet the Glory requirements. This means that the instrument designs must adhere to the existing interfaces and capabilities as much as possible. Given Glory's unique history and the potential science return, the program is one of significant value to both the science community and the world. The findings Glory promises will improve our understanding of the drivers for global climate change for a minimal investment. The program hopes to show that reuse of existing government assets can result in a lower cost, and fully successful mission.

Bajpayee Jaya↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Historical and Future Climate Change

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. The QBO can be seen in stratospheric zonal wind, temperature, and composition, but it also has a number of teleconnections—including to the polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Thus, its future trends will have a signature on the surface. Recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that a weakening of the QBO amplitude is very likely, but changes to QBO period and stability remain unclear, due in part to its highly parameterized nature. We investigate these aspects using multiple configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). As a high-top model with gravity wave drag partly sourced from (parameterized) convection, Model E2.2 includes key pathways for climate forcings to influence the QBO. Overall, both the period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO2, with convection feedbacks critical for the period response, and ozone feedbacks enhancing the amplitude response. We use these results to interpret QBO trends in the historical and SSP integrations. Lastly, we examine the effect of volcanic eruptions on the QBO

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO and its Modulation by Composition Feedbacks

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts the large-scale circulation by altering lower stratospheric meridional temperature gradients which alter the propagation of upward propagating planetary waves. Proposed teleconnections of the QBO include impacts on the stratospheric polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, long-term projections of the QBO remain highly uncertain. While recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) show that the amplitude of the QBO weakens robustly among models, changes in QBO period and stability remain highly uncertain. Here we examine the QBO response to increased greenhouse gases using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Middle Atmosphere Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). Compared to lower vertical resolution versions of ModelE, E2.2 also has a higher model top (0.002 hPa) and employs additional interactive non-orographic gravity wave drag sources from convection and shear, which produce a sufficiently realistic QBO, thus rendering it suitable for use in climate change studies. Overall, we find that both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO , the former related to increased lower stratospheric momentum fluxes (associated with convection) and the latter associated partly with a stronger residual mean circulation. Experiments integrated using fully interactive chemistry also reveal that ozone feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of the QBO amplitude response. Finally, integrations using fixed (pre-industrial) sea surface temperatures (SST) show that the QBO amplitude responds differently to rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks, as compared to the QBO period.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗