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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using the GEOS 5 Nature Run to Simulate 2053 nm Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar Observations

Wind observations are a critical part of the current global observation system used for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Wind lidars have been cited as precise instruments that can provide 3-dimensional wind measurements. Several studies have conducted observing system experiments (OSEs) with existing lidar observations or observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with simulated lidar observations highlighting the benefits of wind lidar measurements to NWP. Previous studies using simulated lidar observations have typically tied aerosol optical properties to functions of relative humidity instead of to aerosol properties. A methodology is presented for simulating wind measurements from a novel 2053 nm lidar using aerosol properties derived using the GEOS-5 Nature Run, along with estimating winds derived from cloud information. Some assumptions regarding aerosol scattering and the distribution of clouds are explored, along with the role of observation weighting, and implications for representativeness error. Results from a preliminary OSSE are presented highlighting the importance of assumptions used to derive data from cloud returns and aerosol scattering. While a longer duration study is required, results show a general reduction in analysis error when lidar measurements are ingested.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using the GEOS 5 Nature Run to Simulate 2053 nm Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar Observations

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comprehensive Forward Model for Spaceborne Radar Instruments

We present the development and validation of a comprehensive forward model designed to enhance remote sensing capabilities of spaceborne radar instruments. To overcome limitations in existing models, we integrated a Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into our Radiative Transfer Model (RTM), focusing on microwave frequencies. By simulating the optical properties of non-spherical frozen hydrometeors, the DDA technique effectively reduced discrepancies between simulated and observed values, surpassing traditional Mie tables. The evaluation of DDA lookup tables involved comparisons with a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts and satellite microwave data, providing evidence of their superiority. Additionally, we address the challenges of assimilating active radar measurements, which offer vertically resolved insights into clouds and precipitation. We explored the assimilation of spaceborne radar measurements in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models by integrating a forward radar model, along with its adjoint and tangent linear, into the data assimilation system. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrated promising agreement between simulations and observations, particularly when the input hydrometeor profiles aligned with the measured reflectivity profiles, showcasing the potential of the developed forward radar model. Moreover, we discuss other challenges in radar measurement assimilation within NWP models, including potential observation errors and biases.

Isaac Moradi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Reconstructed Radiances from IASI Principal Component Scores into the GEOS-ADAS

Hyperspectral Infrared sounders such as IASI, AIRS, and CrIS have long been an integral part of radiance assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP), providing vertical profiles of water vapor and temperature information. Principal Component Scores (PCS) are a lossy form of compression that retains most information, such as temperature and moisture, by using a large training set of atmospheric profiles. However, PCS may not well represent profiles which are rare events, such as volcanic eruptions, and drops some sources of random noise. There has been an increased interest in the use of PCS as EUMETSAT plans to distribute future geostationary sounder radiances from MTG-IRS via PCS only. NWP centers use two approaches to deal with PCS: direct assimilation of the PCS by modifying the radiative transfer model to produce PCS and the associated Jacobians, or a simpler approach of decompressing the PCS and reconstructing the radiances back into channel space to allow assimilating radiances without modifications to the data assimilation system. EUMETSAT has developed a PCS product for IASI that has been operational since 2011. We utilize this product opting for the simpler approach, decompressing IASI PCS into channel space, and assimilating those radiances using the GEOS-ADAS. We then compare this with a control using the standard IASI radiance product. Resulting differences in global forecast statistics, differences in Forecast Sensitivity to Observation Impact, along with implications for implementation and quality control are discussed.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sea Surface Air Pressure Retrieval with MBARS

Global meteorological observations are essential in initialization and assimilation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Many key weather variables such as temperature, humidity, and wind can be relatively well observed by in-situ and remote techniques from surface, suborbital and orbital platforms. However, sea surface air pressure cannot be well-sampled. Over open oceans, the pressure can only be observed by very limited buoys, ships, and oceanic platforms. There is no operational remote sensing method available for the crucial dynamic variable of the Earth’s climate and weather systems. Advanced techniques for global sea level pressure (SLP) observations are urgently needed for improving NWP models, particularly for improvement of severe weather forecasts. Recent studies on the space and airborne Microwave BArometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS) systems provide a great potential to fill the SLP observational gap. The systems studied have three channels with center frequencies at 65.5, 67.76 and 70 GHz. These channels are designed to operate at atmospheric oxygen (O2) absorption bands for column O2 mass measurements. When sea surface returns of spectrally closely-spaced paired channels are measured, surface reflection and atmospheric attenuation other than O2 are very similar, but the difference in O2 absorption is substantial. Thus, the differential absorption loss of this frequency pair leads to measures of atmospheric O2 amount. For the residual absorption loss caused by other agents, a third frequency having the same spectral space to the weak absorption frequency of the first pair can be used, which forms the second pair and produces the same residual as the first pair. Removal of the residual of this second pair from the first pair can further mitigate environmental impacts. Thus, this 3-channel approach will provide precise O2 amount retrievals. Since oxygen is well mixed in the atmosphere, the column air mass or SLP can be obtained. Currently, MBARS is rapidly maturing its advanced technology. An upcoming airborne field flight campaign is planned in late 2024. The 3-channel approach will be use in SLP retrievals. This MBARS team will discuss the physics-based SLP retrieval technique and report latest progresses in this upcoming AGU annual meeting.

O2 differential absorption↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Soil Moisture Observations Over Land Improves Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. Dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land, whereas very wet conditions may lead to a prolonged maintenance of its intensity. While this relationship is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tbs significantly improves modeled land surface states. Here we evaluate: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP Tb observations. We find that in the analysis with SMAP assimilation, the TC has a better-defined, more aligned vertical structure over land relative to the control run; moreover, the analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, better matches the observed TC size. We further find significant reductions in the forecast intensity error and the forecast along-track error, measured against observations. The largest error reductions occur at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the land with its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability at this timescale. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation revealed that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions and an increased latent heat flux in the SMAP analysis, which results in a TC with higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the control analysis.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRS2011

Geostationary Microwave Sounders: Science, Applications and the Geostar Instrument Concept

Microwave atmospheric sounders have long provided some of the most imporant data for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and have played an important role in atmospheric weather and climate research. With 7 US satellites now carrying such sensors, we are in a 'golden age' of microwave remote sensing of the atmosphere. However, as this fleet ages and is replaced by a smaller number of new sensors in the coming yars, the main shortcoming of sensors in low Earth orbit -i.e. poor spacial and temporal converage and sampling - will become more apparent. Placing such sensors on geostationary satellites, enabling time-continuous views of large portions of the Earth disc, would solve this problem. but the GEO orbit is approximately 40 times higher than a typical LEO orbit, which requires antenna apertures also about 40 times larger than for LEO systems to maintain spatial resolution, and it has not been feasible to develop such systems. Recently, a solution to this problem has appeared in the form of aperture synthesis.

numerical weather prediction (NWP)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing the CRTM Active Sensor Module

Active sensors provide vertically resolved atmospheric and cloud information, however the assimilation of such observations into NWP models has been limited for several reasons including lack of reliable forward model. We present the development of CRTM active sensor module including its adjoint and tangent linear by taking advantage of current CRTM modules for calculating atmospheric transmittance and cloud absorption and scattering. Current CRTM cloud coefficients lack cloud backscattering information, thus we have implemented a new cloud scattering database generated using the discrete dipole technique that include backscattering coefficients. The radar simulator is currently being tested within the JEDI/GEOS data assimilation framework to facilitate the assimilation of radar measurements such as CloudSat CPR and GPM DPR into the NASA GEOS model.

CRTM↗

NASA NTRS1977

Data simulation studies for field programs, satellite system tests, and regional weather prediction

In the present paper, the status of the Drexel/NCAR regional numerical weather forecast system is summarized to show the extent of our experience and our immediate requirements for data within the United States on scales smaller than rawinsonde spacing (approximately 300 km). Preliminary experiments are described, and data assimilation problems are examined. It is shown that data requirements, assimilation methods, and forecast sensitivity differ for regional and large-scale models. Forecast verification statistics suggest that middle-troposphere temperature is well known but relative humidity is not. In some cases, regional forecasts require much better humidity data than available from rawinsondes. Numerics, lateral boundary conditions, model physics, and computing power are adequate for near real-time experimental regional prediction with horizontal mesh sizes down to 35 km. Subsynoptic data and assimilation are the primary challenges facing regional NWP.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

On the sensitivity of numerical weather prediction to remotely sensed marine surface wind data - A simulation study

The reported investigation has the objective to assess the potential impact on numerical weather prediction (NWP) of remotely sensed surface wind data. Other investigations conducted with similar objectives have not been satisfactory in connection with a use of procedures providing an unrealistic distribution of initial errors. In the current study, care has been taken to duplicate the actual distribution of information in the conventional observing system, thus shifting the emphasis from accuracy of the data to the data coverage. It is pointed out that this is an important consideration in assessing satellite observing systems since experience with sounder data has shown that improvements in forecasts due to satellite-derived information is due less to a general error reduction than to the ability to fill data-sparse regions. The reported study concentrates on the evaluation of the observing system simulation experimental design and on the assessment of the potential of remotely sensed marine surface wind data.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Memory efficient solution of the primitive equations for numerical weather prediction on the CYBER 205

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), for both operational and research purposes, requires only fast computational speed but also large memory. A technique for solving the Primitive Equations for atmospheric motion on the CYBER 205, as implemented in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System, which is fully vectorized and requires substantially less memory than other techniques such as the Leapfrog or Adams-Bashforth Schemes is discussed. The technique presented uses the Euler-Backard time marching scheme. Also discussed are several techniques for reducing computational time of the model by replacing slow intrinsic routines by faster algorithms which use only hardware vector instructions.

Tuccillo, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The effect of compact implicit differencing in a baroclinic primitive equations model

In an effort to improve forecast accuracy, the horizontal accuracy of gridpoint forecast models at a number of numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers was increased from second order to fourth order. The current GLAS model uses second-order explicit finite-difference formulas in the vertical and fourth-order explicit finite-difference formulas in the horizontal. Experiments are described which indicate the increased forecast accuracy gained by use of compact fourth-order finite differences in a simple baroclinic model. Tables show an increase in forecast accuracy by a factor of 100-150 by use of fourth-order instead of second-order vertical discretization.

Augenbaum, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Objective Determination of Heat Wave Patterns

A simple index was developed in order to objectively characterize a heat wave pattern in either analyses or forecasts of 500 mb height. 500 mb height was chosen because this parameter is usually among the most accurate fields predicted by numerical models. In addition, it is highly correlated with the surface air temperature on many time scales. The heat index IN is designed to be applied to any region of interest and to be used for any objectively analyzed data and specifically those of NWP models.

Wolfson, N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Implementation of the barotropic vorticity equation on the MPP

A finite difference version of the equations governing two-dimensional, non-divergent flow on a sphere is implemented and integrated on the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP). The MPP's performance is then compared with the Cyber's. The feasibility of using a massively parallel architecture to solve the hydrodynamic equations as they are used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) are described.

Suarez, Max J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The Cooperative VAS Program with the Marshall Space Flight Center

Work was divided between the analysis/forecast model development and evaluation of the impact of satellite data in mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP), development of the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS), and other related research. The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) Synoptic Scale Model (SSM) has progressed from a relatively basic analysis/forecast system to a package which includes such features as nonlinear vertical mode initialization, comprehensive Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) physics, and the core of a fully four-dimensional data assimilation package. The MAMS effort has produced a calibrated visible and infrared sensor that produces imager at high spatial resolution. The MAMS was developed in order to study small scale atmospheric moisture variability, to monitor and classify clouds, and to investigate the role of surface characteristics in the production of clouds, precipitation, and severe storms.

Diak, George R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Doppler lidar for measurement of atmospheric wind fields

Measurements of wind fields in the earth's troposphere with daily global coverage is widely considered as a significant advance for forecasting and transport studies. For optimal use by NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models the horizontal and vertical resolutions should be approximately 100 km and 1 km, respectively. For boundary layer studies vertical resolution of a few hundred meters seems essential. Earth-orbiting Doppler lidar has a unique capability to measure global winds in the troposphere with the high vertical resolution required. The lidar approach depends on transmission of pulses with high spectral purity and backscattering from the atmospheric aerosol particles or layered clouds to provide a return signal. Recent field measurement campaigns using NASA research aircraft have resulted in collection of aerosol and cloud data which can be used to optimize the Doppler lidar instrument design and measurement strategy.

Menzies, Robert T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts

The systematic error in the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) medium-range operational forecasts of the global divergence during 1987 and 1988 is examined in this study. As in other operational NWP models the NMC model has too weak an annual mean, annual cycle, and 30-60 day oscillation. This weakness shows up after only a few days, especially over the monsoon region and tropical areas. When the intraseasonal oscillation amplitude is large the model predictive skill is improved. The eastward propagation of the low-frequency mode is well predicted throughout the 10-day forecast period. The north-south migration of the tropical Hadley circulation, depicted primarily by the annual-cycle mode, is also weaker although the phase pattern predicted by the MRF is consistent with analyses.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

NASA NTRS1991

Diagnostic evaluation of numerical model simulations using the tendency equation

A procedure is proposed to expand the diagnostic capabilities of the pressure tendency equation of a primitive equation NWP model by computing the pressure tendency in physical coordinates. The advantages of isolating the density advection as a diagnostic tool to understand pressure changes is shown. By simple thermodynamic arguments it is demonstrated that in areas of synoptic-scale cyclonic development, the vertically integrated density advection is more than sufficient to explain the depletion of mass over a growing depression. Consequently, the joint contribution of the net divergence and vertical motion opposes the pressure fall. This is illustrated for a case of rapid cyclogenesis in southern South America.

Jusem, Juan C.↗