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Editorial: Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age

Editorial on the Research Topic Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age The near-Earth space environment is not only an operational hazard for space missions, but also a scientific laboratory for advancing our understanding and prediction of space plasma populations. This Research Topic is organized around three interconnected themes: observational datasets, machine-learning (ML) model development, and the discovery of new physical insights through those models. Its primary goal is to highlight the emerging capabilities in space environment prediction that are enabled, or will be enabled, by integrating advanced techniques—including AI/ML methods—with long-term curated datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evolution of NASA's Near-Earth Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)

NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) is now in its 23rd year of operations and its spacecraft fleet includes three second-generation spacecraft launched since the year 2000; a figure illustrates the first generation TDRSS spacecraft. During this time frame the TDRSS has provided communications relay support to a broad range of missions, with emphasis on low-earth-orbiting (LEO) spacecraft that include unmanned science spacecraft (e.g., Hubble Space Telescope), and human spaceflight (Space Shuttle and Space Station). Furthermore, the TDRSS has consistently demonstrated its uniqueness and adaptability in several ways. First, its S- and K-band services, combined with its multi-band/steerable single-access (SA) antennas and ground-based configuration flexibility, have permitted the mission set to expand to unique users such as scientific balloons and launch vehicles. Second, the bent-pipe nature of the system has enabled the introduction of new/improved services via technology insertion and upgrades at each of the ground terminals; a specific example here is the Demand Access Service (DAS), which, for example, is currently providing science-alert support to NASA science missions Third, the bent-pipe nature of the system, combined with the flexible ground-terminal signal processing architecture has permitted the demonstration/vaIidation of new techniques/services/technologies via a real satellite channel; over the past 10+ years these have, for example, included demonstrations/evaluations of emerging modulation/coding techniques. Given NASA's emerging Exploration plans, with missions beginning later this decade and expanding for decades to come, NASA is currently planning the development of a seamless, NASA-wide architecture that must accommodate missions from near-earth to deep space. Near-earth elements include Ground-Network (GN) and Near-Earth Relay (NER) components and both must efficiently and seamlessly support missions that encompass: earth orbit, including dedicated science missions and lunar support/cargo vehicles; earth/moon transit; lunar in-situ operations; and other missions within approximately 2 million km of earth (e.g., at the sun/earth libration points). Given that the NER is an evolution of TDRSS, one element of this NASA-wide architecture development activity is a trade study of future NER architecture candidates. The present paper focuses on trade study aspects associated with the NER, highlights study elements, and provides representative interim results.

Flaherty, Roger↗

A Study of Slow-mode Shocks in the Near-Earth Magnetotail with MMS Observations and Hybrid Simulations

The structure of the magnetic reconnection boundary, particularly the presence of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail was studied by using magnetospheric multiscale (MMS) observations and 2.5D hybrid simulations. A total of 51 crossings of MMS from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed. We found that the detection percentage of slow-mode shocks in the near-Earth magnetotail is 41%–55%. Previous studies have only reported one slow-mode shock event in the near-Earth magnetotail and a slow-mode shock detection percentage of 10% or lower in the mid-to-distant magnetotail. It was observed that if the high-energy beam region data is removed from the slow-mode shock downstream observations then the detection of slow-mode shocks reduces, implying that the kinetic effects play an important role in the detection of slow-mode shocks. For the crossings where the interface was not identified as a slow-mode shock, it was found that the turbulence in those crossings can change the mass flux values and disrupt the detection of slow-mode shock. However, the macroscopic slow-mode shock-like structure stably exists around the magnetic reconnection interface, as most of the conditions for slow-mode shocks were satisfied. This result suggests that slow-mode shocks are a general feature of magnetic reconnection geometry. We find that the lack of detection of slow-mode shocks in previous observations and simulations can be explained by taking into account the kinetic structure of slow-mode shocks and the presence of turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BILLIARDS: A Demonstration Mission for Hundred-Meter Class Near-Earth Asteroid Disruption

Collisions from near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) have the potential to cause widespread harm to life on Earth. The hypervelocity nature of these collisions means that a relatively small asteroid (about a quartermile in diameter) could cause a global disaster. Proposed strategies for deflecting or disrupting such a threatening asteroid include detonation of a nuclear explosive device (NED) in close proximity to the asteroid, as well as intercepting the asteroid with a hypervelocity kinetic impactor. NEDs allow for the delivery of large amounts of energy to a NEA for a given mass launched from the Earth, but have not yet been developed or tested for use in deep space. They also present safety and political complications, and therefore may only be used when absolutely necessary. Kinetic impactors require a relatively simple spacecraft compared to NEDs, but also deliver a much lower energy for a given launch mass. To date, no demonstration mission has been conducted for either case, and such a demonstration mission must be conducted prior to the need to utilize them during an actual scenario to ensure that an established, proven system is available for planetary defense when the need arises. One method that has been proposed to deliver a kinetic impactor with impact energy approaching that of an NED is the "billiard-ball" approach. This approach would involve capturing an asteroid approximately ten meters in diameter with a relatively small spacecraft (compared to the launch mass of an equivalent direct kinetic impactor), and redirecting it into the path of an Earth-threatening asteroid. This would cause an impact which would disrupt the Earth-threatening asteroid or deflect it from its Earth-crossing trajectory. The BILLIARDS Project seeks to perform a demonstration of this mission concept in order to establish a protocol that can be used in the event of an impending Earth/asteroid collision. In order to accomplish this objective, the mission must (1) rendezvous with a small (less than 10m), NEA (hereinafter "Alpha"), (2) maneuver Alpha to a collision with a approx. 100 m NEA (hereinafter "Beta"), and (3) produce a detectable deflection or disruption of Beta. In addition to these primary objectives, the BILLIARDS project will contribute to the scientific understanding of the physical properties and collision dynamics of asteroids, and provide opportunities for international collaboration.

Asteroid↗

Lessons Learned from the Flight Unit Testing of the Near Earth Asteroid Scout Flight System

The Near Earth Asteroid Scout flight mission is set to launch on the maiden voyage of the Space Launch System as a secondary payload. The spacecraft will be jettisoned in cis-lunar space and embark on an ambitious 2.5 year mission to image an asteroid. The spacecraft is uniquely equipped with an 85m2 solar sail as the main propulsion system. The monolithic sail system is designed to package within a 6U volume for launch and then deploy during flight. The NEA Scout team has presented in the past to the International Symposium on Solar Sailing topics related to the engineering development unit and design efforts to achieve flight hardware build. This paper will focus on the lessons learned from building and testing the NEA Scout flight system. Focus will be on the mechanical, software, and electrical interfaces as well as preparation for subsystem environmental tests, including thermal vacuum. Due to the unique design of the spacecraft, the solar sail subsystem was required to be located in the center of the spacecraft. This requirement lead to design challenges such as designing and accommodating critical cable harnesses to run through the center of the sail subsystem, packaging and deployment design of the sail subsystem, and integrated testing efforts through an avionics test bed to verify and validate a complete system architecture.

Lockett, Tiffany Russell↗

Methodology and Results of the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS)

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) have been identified by the current administration as potential destinations for human explorers during the mid-2020s. While the close proximity of these objects' orbits to Earth's orbit creates a risk of highly damaging or catastrophic impacts, it also makes some of these objects particularly accessible to spacecraft departing Earth, and this presents unique opportunities for solar system science and humanity's first ventures beyond cislunar space. Planning such ambitious missions first requires the selection of potentially accessible targets from the growing population of nearly 7,800 NEAs. To accomplish this, NASA is conducting the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). Phase I of the NHATS was executed during September of 2010, and Phase II was completed by early March of 2011. The study is ongoing because previously undetected NEAs are being discovered constantly, which has motivated an effort to automate the analysis algorithms in order to provide continuous monitoring of NEA accessibility. The NHATS analysis process consists of a trajectory filter and a minimum maximum estimated size criterion. The trajectory filter employs the method of embedded trajectory grids to compute all possible ballistic round-trip mission trajectories to every NEA in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Small-Body Database (SBDB) and stores all solutions that satisfy the trajectory filter criteria. An NEA must offer at least one qualifying trajectory solution to pass the trajectory filter. The Phase II NHATS filter criteria were purposely chosen to be highly inclusive, requiring Earth departure date between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2040, total round-trip flight time <= 450 days, stay time at the NEA >= 8 days, Earth departure C(sub 3) energy <= 60 km(exp 2)/s(exp 2), total mission delta-v <= 12 km/s (including an Earth departure maneuver from a 400 km altitude circular parking orbit), and a maximum atmospheric re-entry speed of 12 km/s. After determining which NEAs offer at least one trajectory solution meeting the criteria, the estimated size constraint is then imposed whereby those NEAs may only be considered NHATS- qualifying NEAs if their maximum estimated size is >= 30 m. This corresponds to an absolute magnitude H <= 26.5 with an assumed albedo p = 0:05. The following is a brief high-level summary of the Phase II study results. Of the 7,665 NEAs in the SBDB as of February 3rd, 2011, 765 NEAs passed the trajectory filter and yielded a total of 79,157,604 trajectory solutions. The trajectory solutions for each NEA are post-processed into Pork Chop Contour (PCC) plots which show total mission delta-v as a function of Earth departure date and total mission duration. Although the PCC plots necessarily compress a very multi-dimensional design space into a two-dimensional plot, they permit rapid assessment of the breadth and quality of an NEA's available Earth departure season and clearly indicate the regions of the trajectory design space which warrant further analysis and optimization. The PCC plot for the NEA with the greatest number of NHATS-qualifying trajectory solutions, 2000 SG-344, is shown. Of the 765 NEAs which passed the Phase II trajectory filter, a total of 590 NEAs also satisfied the further constraint of maximum estimated size >= 30 m. The distributions of osculating heliocentric orbital semi-major axis (a), eccentricity (e), and inclination (i), for those 590 NEAs are shown. Note that the semi-latus rectum used is equal to alpha (1-e(exp 2)). To further our understanding of round-trip trajectory accessibility dynamics, it is instructive to examine the distribution of the NHATS-Qualifying NEAs according to orbit classification. NEAs are grouped into four orbit families: Atiras (aphelion < 0.983 AU), Atens (aphelion > 0.983 AU, alpha < 1.0 AU), Apollos (perihelion < 1.017 AU, alpha > 1.0 AU), and Amors (1.017 < perihelion < 1.3 AU). Of the 765 NEAhich satisfied the NHATS trajectory criteria, none are Atiras, 193 are Atens (31% of known Atens), 456 are Apollos (11% of known Apollos), and 116 are Amors (4% of known Amors). While Apollos comprise 60% of the NEAs which pass the NHATS trajectory filter and Atens comprise only 25%, the percentages according to orbit family are perhaps more relevant. Note that only 11% of known Apollos passed the trajectory filter while 31% of known Atens passed. These simple statistics alone strongly suggest that Aten orbits possess features which tend to enhance their round-trip trajectory accessibility as compared to Apollos or Amors. This is significant because Atens' orbits cause them to spend considerable time in Earth's daytime sky, making them difficult to discover and track using ground-based observing assets. In this paper we will detail the NHATS analysis algorithms, present and analyze all NHATS results to date, and discuss aspects of HSF mission architecture design for future NEA missions.

Barbee, Brent↗

Accelerated simulation of near-Earth-orbit polymer degradation

There is a need to simulate the near-Earth-orbit environmental conditions, and it is useful to be able to monitor the changes in physical properties of spacecraft materials. Two different methods for simulating the vacuum-ultraviolet (VUV) and soft X-ray near-Earth-orbit flux are presented. Also, methods for monitoring the changes in optical ultraviolet transmission and mass loss are presented. The results of exposures to VUV photons and charged particles on these materials are discussed.

Laue, Eric↗

Compositions of near-Earth asteroids

The goal is to determine whether any of the near-earth asteroids contain water-bearing phyllosilicate (clay) minerals. If these minerals are present, they would provide a readily available source of water for propellant generation and use in life support systems. Telescopic detection of water on the near-earth asteroids is complicated because thermal emission from the asteroid itself masks the diagnostic absorption features for objects this close to the sun. Sophisticated thermal models are necessary to determine whether the absorption features are present. This year, development of these models was continued and more telescopic data to test the models was obtained.

Lebofsky, L. A.↗

Methodology and Results of the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS)

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) have been identified by the Administration as potential destinations for human explorers during the mid-2020s. Planning such ambitious missions requires selecting potentially accessible targets from the growing known population of 8,008 NEAs. NASA is therefore conducting the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS), in which the trajectory opportunities to all known NEAs are being systematically evaluated with respect to a set of defined constraints. While the NHATS algorithms have identified hundreds of NEAs which satisfy purposely inclusive trajectory constraints, only a handful of them offer truly attractive mission opportunities in the time frame of greatest interest. In this paper we will describe the structure of the NHATS algorithms and the constraints utilized in the study, present current study results, and discuss various mission design considerations for future human space flight missions to NEAs.

Barbee, Brent W.↗

Pioneer Venus and near-earth observations of interplanetary shocks

Twenty-three transient interplanetary shocks observed near earth during 1978-1982, and mostly reported in the literature, have also been identified at the Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft. There seems to be a fairly consistent trend for lower shock speeds, farther from the sun. Shock normals obtained using the Pioneer Venus data correspond well with published values from near earth. By referring to the portion of the Pioneer Venus plasma data used here from locations at longitudes within 37 deg of earth, it is found that shocks are weaker at earth, compared with those closer to the sun.

Mihalov, J. D.↗

Human Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids

A major goal for NASA's human spaceflight program is to send astronauts to near-Earth asteroids (NEA) in the coming decades. Missions to NEAs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of these primitive objects. However, before sending human explorers to NEAs, robotic investigations of these bodies would be required to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk. These precursor missions to NEAs would fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning their physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration of these relatively unknown destinations. Dr. Paul Abell discussed some of the physical characteristics of NEOs that will be relevant for EVA considerations, reviewed the current data from previous NEA missions (e.g., Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Shoemaker and Hayabusa), and discussed why future robotic and human missions to NEAs are important from space exploration and planetary defense perspectives.

Abell, Paul↗

Human Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids

A major goal for NASA's human spaceflight program is to send astronauts to near-Earth asteroids (NEA) in the coming decades. Missions to NEAs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of these primitive objects. However, before sending human explorers to NEAs, robotic investigations of these bodies would be required to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk. These precursor missions to NEAs would fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning their physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration of these relatively unknown destinations. Dr. Paul Abell discussed some of the physical characteristics of NEOs that will be relevant for EVA considerations, reviewed the current data from previous NEA missions (e.g., Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) Shoemaker and Hayabusa), and discussed why future robotic and human missions to NEAs are important from space exploration and planetary defense perspectives.

Abell, Paul↗

The Near-Earth Orbital Debris Problem and the Challenges for Environment Remediation

The near-Earth space environment has been gradually polluted with orbital debris (OD) since the beginning of space activities 55 years ago. Although this problem has been known to the research community for decades, the public was, in general, unaware of the issue until the anti-satellite test conducted by China in 2007 and the collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009. The latter also underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (the "Kessler Syndrome") in the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude). Recent modeling results have indicated that mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community will be insufficient to stabilize the LEO debris population. To better limit the OD population increase, more aggressive actions must be considered. There are three options for OD environment remediation-removal of large/massive intact objects to address the root cause of the OD population growth problem, removal of ~5-mm-to-1 cm debris to mitigate the main mission-ending threats for the majority of operational spacecraft, and prevention of major debris-generating collisions as a temporary means to slow down the OD population increase. The technology, engineering, and cost challenges to carry out any of these three options are monumental. It will require innovative ideas, game-changing technologies, and major collaborations at the international level to address the OD problem and preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

One year variations in the near earth solar wind ion density and bulk flow velocity

One-year periodic variations in the near earth solar wind ion density and bulk flow velocity are reported. The variations show an inverse relationship between the ion velocity and density. The peak strength of the observed density variation ranges from 50-100 percent over the background. These variations imply either large scale mass loading inside the earth's orbit or intrinsic solar modulations. Analyses of both near earth and Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft data provide a comparison at two different heliocentric distances. Several explanations for these variations are discussed.

Bolton, Scott J.↗

Near Earth asteroid rendezvous

The Spacecraft Design Course is the capstone design class for the M.S. in astronautics at the Naval Postgraduate School. The Fall 92 class designed a spacecraft for the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous Mission (NEAR). The NEAR mission uses a robotic spacecraft to conduct up-close reconnaissance of a near-earth asteroid. Such a mission will provide information on Solar System formation and possible space resources. The spacecraft is intended to complete a NEAR mission as a relatively low-budget program while striving to gather as much information about the target asteroid as possible. A complete mission analysis and detailed spacecraft design were completed. Mission analysis includes orbit comparison and selection, payload and telemetry requirements, spacecraft configuration, and launch vehicle selection. Spacecraft design includes all major subsystems: structure, electrical power, attitude control, propulsion, payload integration, and thermal control. The resulting spacecraft demonstrates the possibility to meet the NEAR mission requirements using existing technology, 'off-the-shelf' components, and a relatively low-cost launch vehicle.

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