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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

XXL-HSC: An updated catalogue of high-redshift ( z ≥ 3.5) X-ray AGN in the XMM-XXL northern field

X-rays offer a reliable method to identify active galactic nuclei (AGNs). However, in the high-redshift Universe, X-ray AGNs are poorly sampled due to their relatively low space density and the small areas covered by X-ray surveys. In addition to wide-area X-ray surveys, it is important to have deep optical data in order to locate the optical counterparts and determine their redshifts. Here, in this work, we built a high-redshift (z ≥ 3.5) X-ray-selected AGN sample in the XMM-XXL northern field using the most updated [0.5–2 keV] catalogue along with a plethora of new spectroscopic and multi-wavelength catalogues, including the deep optical Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) data, reaching magnitude limits i ~ 26 mag. We selected all the spectroscopically confirmed AGN and complement this sample with high-redshift candidates that are HSC g- and r-band dropouts. To confirm the dropouts, we derived their photometric redshifts using spectral energy distribution techniques. We obtained a sample of 54 high-z sources (28 with spec-z), the largest in this field so far (almost three times larger than in previous studies), and we estimated the possible contamination and completeness. We calculated the number counts (log N-log S) in different redshift bins and compared our results with previous studies and models. We provide the strongest high-redshift AGN constraints yet at bright fluxes (f 0.5 – 2 keV > 10 –15 erg s –1 cm –2 ). The samples of z ≥ 3.5, z ≥ 4, and z ≥ 5 are in agreement with an exponential decline model similar to that witnessed at optical wavelengths. Our work emphasises the importance of using wide-area X-ray surveys with deep optical data to uncover high-redshift AGNs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A complete spectroscopic catalogue of local galaxies in the northern spring sky: Gas properties and nuclear activity in different environments

With the aim of providing the complete demography of galaxies in the local Universe, including their nuclear properties, we present SPRING, a complete census of local galaxies limited to the spring quarter of the northern sky (10h < RA < 16h; 0° < Dec < 65°). The SPRING catalogue is a flux- and volume-limited sample (r < 17.7 mag, cz < 10 000 km s -1 ) of 30 597 galaxies, including the Virgo, Coma, and A1367 clusters. Images and spectra were individually examined to clear the sample from unwanted entries. To inspect possible secular and environmental dependencies of the various nuclear excitation properties (star-forming versus active nuclei), we performed a multi-dimensional analysis by dividing the total sample according to: (i) their position in the (NUV - i) versus M star diagram, (ii) the local galaxy density, (iii) the stellar mass, (iv) the halo mass of the group to which galaxies belong, and (v) the neutral hydrogen content. We present a new calibration of the optical diameter-based H I-deficiency parameter H I def , employing a reference sample of isolated galaxies extracted from SPRING. At intermediate distances between Virgo and Coma, we identify a ring-like structure of galaxies constituted by three large filaments, each with a length of approximately 20h -1 Mpc, mostly composed of blue-cloud galaxies with stellar masses M star ≲ 10 10 M ⊙ . The fraction of H I-deficient galaxies within the filament (~30%) suggests that filaments are a transitioning environment between lower- and higher-overdensity environments in terms of H I content, as we find a clear progression from field galaxies to the filament and cluster galaxies for an increasing H I def parameter. We classify the nuclear spectra according to the four-line Baldwin-Phillips-Terlevich (BPT) and the two-line EWHα versus [NII]/Hα (WHAN) diagnostic diagrams, and investigate the variation in the fraction of active nuclei hosts with stellar mass, as well as their colours and environments. We observe that the fraction of low-ionisation nuclear emitting regions (LINERs) is a steep function of stellar mass, for example, it is consistent with zero up to M star ≲ 10 9.5 M ⊙ and becomes ~40% for M star ≳ 101 0.5 M ⊙ , whereas, for M star ≲ 10 9 - 9.5 M ⊙ , almost the entire spectroscopic sample is constituted of galaxies with star-forming nuclei. We investigate whether the nuclear-excitation fractions depend predominantly on the stellar mass or, conversely, on the galaxy environment. In general, we observe that the mass dependence of the fraction of Seyfert nuclei is not very sensitive to the galaxy environment, whereas the fraction of star-forming nuclei is a steeper function of stellar mass in lower-density environments and in blue-cloud galaxies. We find that the fraction of LINERs depends on galaxy colour and, for M star ≳ 10 9.5 - 10 M ⊙ , increases in galaxies belonging to the green valley.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tropical African wildfire aerosols trigger teleconnections over mid-to-high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere in January

This study investigates the impacts of African wildfire aerosols (primary organic carbon, black carbon and sulfate) on the Northern Hemispheric in January. We found that wildfire aerosols emitted from equatorial Africa result in two mid-to-high latitudes atmospheric Rossby wave trains. One is from subtropical Atlantic propagating northeastward across Europe to Siberia, and the other one propagates eastward from Middle East across Asia to Pacific Northwest. The maximum positive geopotential height anomaly locates in Europe, concurrent with a greater-than-2 K land surface warming. These Rossby wave trains are excited by the atmospheric heating that caused by the wildfire aerosols in equatorial Africa and propagate into extratropics with the help of the westerly jet. Based on the diabatic heat budget analysis, the Rossby wave source is primarily from the solar absorption of black carbon of African wildfire. The present study emphasizes that wildfire aerosols, especial the absorbing aerosols, would have profound climate effects on remote regions and thus need more attentions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis *

Abstract Vegetation seasonality in the northern extratropical latitudes (NEL) has changed dramatically, but our understanding of how it responds to climate change (e.g. temperature, soil moisture, shortwave radiation) and human activities (e.g. elevated CO 2 concentration) remains insufficient. In this study, we used two remote-sensing-based leaf area index and factorial simulations from the TRENDY models to attribute the changes in the integrated vegetation seasonality index ( S ), which captures both the concentration and magnitude of vegetation growth throughout the year, to climate, CO 2 , and land use and land cover change (LULCC). We found that from 2003 to 2020, the enhanced average S in the NEL (MODIS: 0.0022 yr −1 , p < 0.05; GLOBMAP: 0.0018 yr −1 , p < 0.05; TRENDY S3 [i.e. the scenario considering both time-varying climate, CO 2 , and LULCC]: 0.0011 ± 7.5174 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p < 0.05) was primarily determined by the elevated CO 2 concentration (5.3 × 10 −4 ± 3.8 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p < 0.05) and secondly controlled by the combined climate change (4.6 × 10 −4 ± 6.6 × 10 −4 yr −1 , p > 0.1). Geographically, negative trends in the vegetation growth concentration were dominated by climate change (31.4%), while both climate change (47.9%) and CO 2 (31.9%) contributed to the enhanced magnitude of vegetation growth. Furthermore, around 60% of the study areas showed that simulated major climatic drivers of S variability exhibited the same dominant factor as observed in either the MODIS or GLOBMAP data. Our research emphasizes the crucial connection between environmental factors and vegetation seasonality, providing valuable insights for policymakers and land managers in developing sustainable ecosystem management strategies amidst a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The picasso map-making code: application to a simulation of the QUIJOTE northern sky survey

ABSTRACT Map-making is an important step for the data analysis of cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. It consists of converting the data, which are typically a long, complex, and noisy collection of measurements, into a map, which is an image of the observed sky. We present in this paper a new map-making code named picasso (Polarization and Intensity CArtographer for Scanned Sky Observations), which was implemented to construct intensity and polarization maps from the Multi Frequency Instrument (MFI) of the QUIJOTE (Q-U-I Joint TEnerife) CMB polarization experiment. picasso is based on the destriping algorithm, and is suited to address specific issues of ground-based microwave observations, with a technique that allows the fit of a template function in the time domain, during the map-making step. This paper describes the picasso code, validating it with simulations and assessing its performance. For this purpose, we produced realistic simulations of the QUIJOTE-MFI survey of the northern sky (approximately ∼20 000 deg2), and analysed the reconstructed maps with picasso, using real and harmonic space statistics. We show that, for this sky area, picasso is able to reconstruct, with high fidelity, the injected signal, recovering all the scales with ℓ > 10 in TT, EE, and BB. The signal error is better than 0.001 per cent at 20 < ℓ < 200. Finally, we validated some of the methods that will be applied to the real wide-survey data, like the detection of the CMB anisotropies via cross-correlation analyses. Despite that the implementation of picasso is specific for QUIJOTE-MFI data, it could be adapted to other experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Star formation characteristics of CNN-identified post-mergers in the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey (UNIONS)

ABSTRACT The importance of the post-merger epoch in galaxy evolution has been well documented, but post-mergers are notoriously difficult to identify. While the features induced by mergers can sometimes be distinctive, they are frequently missed by visual inspection. In addition, visual classification efforts are highly inefficient because of the inherent rarity of post-mergers (~1 per cent in the low-redshift Universe), and non-parametric statistical merger selection methods do not account for the diversity of post-mergers or the environments in which they appear. To address these issues, we deploy a convolutional neural network (CNN) that has been trained and evaluated on realistic mock observations of simulated galaxies from the IllustrisTNG simulations, to galaxy images from the Canada France Imaging Survey, which is part of the Ultraviolet Near Infrared Optical Northern Survey. We present the characteristics of the galaxies with the highest CNN-predicted post-merger certainties, as well as a visually confirmed subset of 699 post-mergers. We find that post-mergers with high CNN merger probabilities [p(x) > 0.8] have an average star formation rate that is 0.1 dex higher than a mass- and redshift-matched control sample. The SFR enhancement is even greater in the visually confirmed post-merger sample, a factor of 2 higher than the control sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

QUIJOTE scientific results – IV. A northern sky survey in intensity and polarization at 10–20 GHz with the multifrequency instrument

ABSTRACT We present QUIJOTE intensity and polarization maps in four frequency bands centred around 11, 13, 17, and 19 GHz, and covering approximately 29 000 deg2, including most of the northern sky region. These maps result from 9000 h of observations taken between May 2013 and June 2018 with the first QUIJOTE multifrequency instrument (MFI), and have angular resolutions of around 1°, and sensitivities in polarization within the range 35–40 µK per 1° beam, being a factor ∼2–4 worse in intensity. We discuss the data processing pipeline employed, and the basic characteristics of the maps in terms of real space statistics and angular power spectra. A number of validation tests have been applied to characterize the accuracy of the calibration and the residual level of systematic effects, finding a conservative overall calibration uncertainty of 5 per cent. We also discuss flux densities for four bright celestial sources (Tau A, Cas A, Cyg A, and 3C274), which are often used as calibrators at microwave frequencies. The polarization signal in our maps is dominated by synchrotron emission. The distribution of spectral index values between the 11 GHz and WMAP 23 GHz map peaks at β = −3.09 with a standard deviation of 0.14. The measured BB/EE ratio at scales of ℓ = 80 is 0.26 ± 0.07 for a Galactic cut |b| > 10°. We find a positive TE correlation for 11 GHz at large angular scales (ℓ ≲ 50), while the EB and TB signals are consistent with zero in the multipole range 30 ≲ ℓ ≲ 150. The maps discussed in this paper are publicly available.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wealth inequality in the prehispanic northern US Southwest: from Malthus to Tyche

Persistent differences in wealth and power among prehispanic Pueblo societies are visible from the late AD 800s through the late 1200s, after which large portions of the northern US Southwest were depopulated. In this paper we measure these differences in wealth using Gini coefficients based on house size, and show that high Ginis (large wealth differences) are positively related to persistence in settlements and inversely related to an annual measure of the size of the unoccupied dry-farming niche. We argue that wealth inequality in this record is due first to processes inherent in village life which have internally different distributions of the most productive maize fields, exacerbated by the dynamics of systems of balanced reciprocity; and second to decreasing ability to escape village life owing to shrinking availability of unoccupied places within the maize dry-farming niche as villages get enmeshed in regional systems of tribute or taxation. We embed this analytical reconstruction in the model of an ‘Abrupt imposition of Malthusian equilibrium in a natural-fertility, agrarian society’ proposed by Puleston et al. (Puleston C, Tuljapurkar S, Winterhalder B. 2014 PLoS ONE 9, e87541 (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087541)), but show that the transition to Malthusian dynamics in this area is not abrupt but extends over centuries. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Evolutionary ecology of inequality’.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

First Evidence of Axial Shape Asymmetry and Configuration Coexistence in Zn 74 : Suggestion for a Northern Extension of the N = 40 Island of Inversion

The excited states of N=44 74 Zn were investigated via γ-ray spectroscopy following 74 Cu β decay. By exploiting γ-γ angular correlation analysis, the 2$_2^+$, 3$_1^+$, 0$_2^+$, and 2$_3^+$ states in 74 Zn were firmly established. The γ-ray branching and E2/M1 mixing ratios for transitions deexciting the 2$_2^+$, 3$_1^+$, and 2$_3^+$ states were measured, allowing for the extraction of relative B(E2) values. In particular, the 2$_3^+$→0$_2^+$ and 2$_3^+$→4$_1^+$ transitions were observed for the first time. Here the results show excellent agreement with new microscopic large-scale shell-model calculations, and are discussed in terms of underlying shapes, as well as the role of neutron excitations across the N=40 gap. Enhanced axial shape asymmetry (triaxiality) is suggested to characterize 74 Zn in its ground state. Furthermore, an excited K=0 band with a significantly larger softness in its shape is identified. A shore of the N=40 "island of inversion" appears to manifest above Z=26, previously thought as its northern limit in the chart of the nuclides.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prescribed fire selects for a pyrophilous soil sub‐community in a northern California mixed conifer forest

Abstract Prescribed fire is a critical strategy for mitigating the effects of catastrophic wildfires. While the above‐ground response to fire has been well‐documented, fewer studies have addressed the effect of prescribed fire on soil microorganisms. To understand how soil microbial communities respond to prescribed fire, we sampled four plots at a high temporal resolution (two burned, two controls), for 17 months, in a mixed conifer forest in northern California, USA. Using amplicon sequencing, we found that prescribed fire significantly altered both fungal and bacterial community structure. We found that most differentially abundant fungal taxa had a positive fold‐change, while differentially abundant bacterial taxa generally had a negative fold‐change. We tested the null hypothesis that these communities assembled due to neutral processes (i.e., drift and/or dispersal), finding that >90% of taxa fit this neutral prediction. However, a dynamic sub‐community composed of burn‐associated indicator taxa that were positively differentially abundant was enriched for non‐neutral amplicon sequence variants, suggesting assembly via deterministic processes. In synthesizing these results, we identified 15 pyrophilous taxa with a significant and positive response to prescribed burns. Together, these results lay the foundation for building a process‐driven understanding of microbial community assembly in the context of the classical disturbance regime of fire.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally, with >365,000 cases in California as of 17 July 2020. We investigated the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California from late January to mid-March 2020, using samples from 36 patients spanning nine counties and the Grand Princess cruise ship. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the cryptic introduction of at least seven different SARS-CoV-2 lineages into California, including epidemic WA1 strains associated with Washington state, with lack of a predominant lineage and limited transmission among communities. Lineages associated with outbreak clusters in two counties were defined by a single base substitution in the viral genome. These findings support contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in California and other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cretaceous sequence stratigraphy of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough: Implications for basin evolution and carbon storage

We evaluate the Cretaceous stratigraphy and carbon sequestration potential of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough (NBCT) using >10,000 km of multi-channel seismic profiles integrated with geophysical logs, biostratigraphy, and lithology from 29 offshore wells. We identify and map six sequences resolved primarily at the stage level. Accommodation was dominated by thermal and non-thermal subsidence, though sequence boundaries correlate with regional and global sea-level changes, and the record is modified by igneous intrusion, active faulting, and changes in sediment supply and sources. Our stratigraphic maps illustrate a primary southern (central Appalachian) Early Cretaceous source that migrated northward during the Aptian and Albian. During the Cenomanian, sedimentation rates in the NBCT increased and depocenters shifted northward and landward. We show that deposition occurred in three phases: (1) earlier Cretaceous paleoenvironments were primarily terrestrial indicated by variable amplitude, chaotic seismic facies, serrated gamma logs, and heterolithic sandstones and mudstones with terrestrial microfossils; (2) the Albian to Cenomanian was dominated by deltaic paleoenvironments indicated by blocky, funnel-shaped, gamma-ray logs and clinoforms characterized by continuous high-amplitude seismic reflections with well-defined terminations; and (3) the Cenomanian and younger was marine shelf, inferred from mudstoneprone lithologies, peak gamma-ray values in well logs, and foraminiferal evidence. Long-term transgression and maximum water depths at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary correlative with Ocean Anoxic Event 2 were followed by a regression and relative sea-level fall. We show that porous and permeable sandstones of three Aptian to Cenomanian highstand systems tracts are high-volume reservoirs for supercritical CO 2 storage that are confined by overlying deep water mudstones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and temporal trends and variabilities of hailstones in the United States Northern Great Plains and their possible attributions

Following on our study of hail for the Southern Great Plains (SGP), we investigated the spatial and temporal hail trends and variabilities for the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and the contributing factors for summer seasons (June–August) over 2004–2016 using two independent hail datasets. Both severe hail (1 < diameter = 2 inches) and significant severe hail (diameter > 2 inches) were examined and similar results were obtained. The hailstones in the NGP demonstrate a large interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend over 2004–2016. Spatially, the positive trend is mainly located in the western part of South Dakota and North Dakota. We find the three major dynamical factors that most likely contribute to the hail interannual variability in the NGP are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and low-level jet (LLJ). With a thermodynamical variable integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that is strongly controlled by LLJ, the four factors can explain 76% of the hail interannual variability from the hail reports based on the multivariate linear regression. Hail occurrences are 73% higher during the cold phase of ENSO (La Nin~a) than the warm phase of ENSO (El Nin~o). When the NASH has a larger northwestward expansion or stronger intensity, more hail occurs over the NGP, because the increases of latitudinal gradient of pressure leads to a stronger LLJ. Interestingly, the important factors impacting hail interannual variability over the NGP are quite different from those for the SGP, except ENSO.

Jeong, Jong-Hoon↗
DOE OSTI2023

Persistent ocean anomalies as a response to Northern Hemisphere heating induced by biomass burning variability

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical forcing fields have enhanced temporal variability during the years 1997–2014 compared to earlier periods. Recent studies document that the corresponding inhomogeneous shortwave forcing over this period can cause changes in clouds, permafrost, and soil moisture, which contribute to a net terrestrial Northern Hemisphere warming relative to earlier periods. Here, we investigate the ocean response to the hemispherically asymmetric warming, using a 100-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble forced by two different BBA emissions (CMIP6 default and temporally smoothed over 1990–2020). Differences between the two subensemble means show that ocean temperature anomalies occur during periods of high BBA variability and subsequently persist over multiple decades. In the North Atlantic, surface warming is efficiently compensated for by decreased northward oceanic heat transport due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In the North Pacific, surface warming is compensated for by an anomalous cross-equatorial cell (CEC) that reduces northward oceanic heat transport. The heat that converges in the South Pacific through the anomalous CEC is shunted into the subsurface and contributes to formation of long-lasting ocean temperature anomalies. The anomalous CEC is maintained through latitude-dependent contributions from narrow western boundary currents and basin-wide near-surface Ekman transport. Furthermore, these results indicate that interannual variability in forcing fields may significantly change the background climate state over long timescales, presenting a potential uncertainty in CMIP6-class climate projections forced without interannual variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Meteorological Drivers for Errors in Modeled Winds along the Northern California Coast

Abstract An accurate wind resource dataset is required for assessing the potential energy yield of floating offshore wind farms that are expected along the California outer continental shelf. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed and disseminated an updated wind resource dataset offshore of California, using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, referred to as the CA20 dataset. As compared to buoy lidar measurements that have become available recently, the CA20 dataset showed significant positive biases for 100-m wind speeds along Northern California wind energy lease areas. To investigate the meteorological drivers for the model errors, we first consider two 1-yr simulations run with two different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations: the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme (the chosen configuration in the CA20 dataset) and the Yonsei University PBL scheme (which significantly reduces the bias in modeled winds). By comparing the 1-yr simulations to the concurrent lidar buoy observations, we find that errors are larger with the MYNN PBL scheme in warm seasons. We then dive deeper into the analysis by running simulations for short-term (3-day) case studies to evaluate the sensitivity of initial/boundary condition forcings on model results. By analyzing the short-term simulations, we find that during synoptic-scale northerly flows driven by the North Pacific high and inland thermal low, a coastal warm bias in the MYNN simulation is mainly responsible for the modeled wind speed bias by altering the boundary layer thermodynamics. The results of our analysis will help guide the creation of an updated version of the CA20 dataset.

17 WIND ENERGY↗