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An introduction to three-dimensional climate modeling

The development and use of three-dimensional computer models of the earth's climate are discussed. The processes and interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice are examined. The basic theory of climate simulation which includes the fundamental equations, models, and numerical techniques for simulating the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice is described. Simulated wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea ice distribution data are presented and compared to observational data. The responses of the climate to various environmental changes, such as variations in solar output or increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are modeled. Future developments in climate modeling are considered. Information is also provided on the derivation of the energy equation, the finite difference barotropic forecast model, the spectral transform technique, and the finite difference shallow water waved equation model.

Washington, W. M.↗

Possible Stick-Slip Mechanism for Whillans Ice Stream

Tidally-induced stick-slip motion in the mouth of Whillans Ice Stream provides a unique natural experiment in ice-stream response behavior and fiom which we might learn a great deal about subglacial till properties and sub-ice-stream conditions. At the IGS Symposium on Fast Glacier Flow (Yakutat, 2002), we reported our observations of stick- slip motion and demonstrated its synchronicity with tidal forcing. Recently, we have completed additional processing of our GPS data in differential mode. It reveals more details of the stick-slip events and illustrates that within 30 seconds, the temporal interval of our data, the ice stream accelerates to a speed corresponding to a completely lubricated bed. While details of individual events vary, there seems to be strong evidence of an elastic rebound on the time scale of one hour following most events. This suggests the event involves the release of stored elastic strain energy in the ice. The similar displacements of events suggest further that till or subglacial hydrologic properties limit the amount of elastic strain released in any single event. We follow a line of reasoning that dilatant strengthening limits the slip displacement and present model of the stick-slip process. To match the observed delay between the peak ocean tide and stick-slip events, our model includes a propagating pressure wave in the subglacial hydrologic system between the grounding line, where the rising tide first increases the subglacial water pressure and regions upstream where stored elastic strain increases the basal shear stress. This high-tide event is released when the increased water pressure reaches the region of increased shear stress. Dilatant strengthening stops the event by increasing pore volume and lowering the water pressure. Following this event, falling tide increases the normal forces, compresses the till and increases pore pressure again, leading to the second falling-tide event we observe every tidal cycle.

Bindschadler, Robert↗

Possible Stick-Slip Mechanism for Whillans Ice Stream

Tidally-induced stick-slip motion in the mouth of Whillans Ice Stream provides a unique natural experiment in ice-stream response behavior and from which we might learn a great deal about subglacial till properties and sub-ice-stream conditions. At the IGS Symposium on Fast Glacier Flow (Yakutat, 2002), we reported our observations of stick- slip motion and demonstrated its synchronicity with tidal forcing. Recently, we have completed additional processing of our GPS data in differential mode. It reveals more details of the stick-slip events and illustrates that within 30 seconds, the temporal interval of our data, the ice stream accelerates to a speed corresponding to a completely lubricated bed. While details of individual events vary, there seems to be strong evidence of an elastic rebound on the time scale of one hour following most events. This suggests the event involves the release of stored elastic strain energy in the ice. The similar displacements of events suggest further that till or subglacial hydrologic properties limit the amount of elastic strain released in any single event. We follow a line of reasoning that dilatant strengthening limits the slip displacement and present model of the stick-slip process. To match the observed delay between the peak ocean tide and stick-slip events, our model includes a propagating pressure wave in the subglacial hydrologic system between the grounding line, where the rising tide first increases the subglacial water pressure and regions upstream where stored elastic strain increases the basal shear stress. This high-tide event is released when the increased water pressure reaches the region of increased shear stress. Dilatant strengthening stops the event by increasing pore volume and lowering the water pressure. Following this event, falling tide increases the normal forces, compresses the till and increases pore pressure again, leading to the second falling-tide event we observe every tidal cycle.

Bindschadler, Robert↗

Aspects of the Kelvin wave response to episodic wind forcing

Episodes of westerly wind are an important aspect of surface stress variability in the western Pacific. During ENSO periods, the presence of such wind episodes comprises much of the LF relaxation of the trades over the central and western Pacific. This paper describes the oceanic Kelvin pulse response to a single idealized episode of westerly wind stress, using results from linear theory as well as from a 27-level general circulation model. When stratification typical of the western and eastern Pacific is used, the conservation of energy flux predicts a reduction of surface currents associated with the first baroclinic mode and an enhancement of surface currents associated with the second baroclinic mode. The idealized wind anomaly is also used to drive an ocean general circulation model. When the wind anomaly is weak, the model Kelvin response agrees with predictions of linear theory. For more realistic strong forcing there are three important deviations from linear theory: the amplitude of low baroclinic modes increases; the amplitude of higher baroclinic modes decreases; and the phase speed increases.

Giese, Benjamin S.↗

Transformation of apparent ocean wave spectra observed from an aircraft sensor platform

The problem considered was transformation of a unidirectional apparent ocean wave spectrum observed from an aircraft sensor platform into the true spectrum that would be observed from a stationary platform. Spectral transformation equations were developed in terms of the linear wave dispersion relationship and the wave group speed. An iterative solution to the equations was outlined and used to transform reference theoretical apparent spectra for several assumed values of average water depth. Results show that changing the average water depth leads to a redistribution of energy density among the various frequency bands of the transformed spectrum. This redistribution is most severe when much of the energy density is expected, a priori, to reside at relatively low true frequencies.

Poole, L. R.↗

Operational wave forecasting with spaceborne SAR: Prospects and pitfalls

Measurements collected in the Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-B) Extreme Waves Experiment confirm the ability of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to yield useful estimates of wave directional energy spectra over global scales, at least for shuttle altitudes. However, azimuth fall-off effects tend to become severe for wavelengths shorter than about 100 m in most sea states. Moreover, the azimuth fall-off problem becomes increasingly severe as the platform altitude increases beyond 300 km. The most viable solution to the global wave measurements problem may be a low altitude spacecraft containing a combination of both the SAR and the Radar Ocean Wave Spectrometry (ROWS). Such a combination could have a synergy which yield global spectral estimates superior to those of either instrument singly employed.

Beal, R. C.↗

The Ebb and Flow of Tidal Science, and the Impact of Satellite Altimetry

In the years immediately preceding the launches of Geosat and Topex/Poseidon, tidal science had lapsed into a period of uncertainty and discouragement, brought about by the failure of once-exciting new ideas that eventually proved overly optimistic. A long list of outstanding problems presented themselves, but progress had reached a "low water mark". What was lacking was a high-quality global dataset of tidal measurements, which satellite altimetry -- and especially Topex/Poseidon -- provided. With these data in hand, a "flood tide" of marked progress resulted. In this paper we review some of that progress. An important area of progress, with potentially important implications for other areas of physical oceanography, falls under the topic of "energy dissipation." With precise global constraints provided by altimetry -- combined with precise laser tracking of the altimeter, other geodetic satellites like Lageos, as well as the moon -- the planetary energy budgets of both Earth and ocean tides are now well determined. Moreover, the local energy balances, and thus local estimates of tidal dissipation, have now been mapped, although somewhat coarsely, throughout the ocean. This work has pointed to internal-tide generation in the deep ocean as the once missing sink of tidal energy, and has led to a plethora of new observational and theoretical studies of internal tides, and their role in vertical mixing of the deep ocean. The discovery that internal tides, or some part of them, can be directly mapped with an altimeter opens new lines of research on this topic. Low-mode internal tides have been found, at least in some regions, to propagate several thousand kilometers across open ocean. The study of such waves with altimetry gives us a global view heretofore unattainable, allowing strong observational constraints to be placed on possible ocean mixing processes, such as subharmonic instabilities.

Ray, Richard↗

From Safer Space Travel to Improved Fisheries Monitoring: Wave Energy Modeling Tool Helps Design Tomorrow's Tech

What does wave energy have to do with space exploration? It turns out, plenty. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working toward launching the Artemis I mission, an uncrewed lunar test flight, in 2021. It will be the maiden flight of the Space Launch System heavy-lift launch vehicle, as well as the Orion crew module (CM). Orion will orbit the moon for multiple days before returning to Earth and landing in the Pacific Ocean.

Tannen S Vanzwieten↗

A case study of GWE satellite data impact on GLA assimilation analyses of two ocean cyclones

The effects of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) data obtained on January 18-20, 1979 on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres assimilation analyses of simultaneous cyclones in the western Pacific and Atlantic oceans are examined. The ability of satellite data within assimilation models to determine the baroclinic structures of developing extratropical cyclones is evaluated. The impact of the satellite data on the amplitude and phase of the temperature structure within the storm domain, potential energy, and baroclinic growth rate is studied. The GWE data are compared with Data Systems Test results. It is noted that it is necessary to characterize satellite effects on the baroclinic structure of cyclone waves which degrade numerical weather predictions of cyclogenesis.

Gallimore, R. G.↗

Simulation of the modern arctic climate by the NCAR CCM1

The National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1's) simulation of the modern arctic climate is evaluated by comparing a five-year seasonal cycle simulation with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The sea level pressure (SLP), storm tracks, vertical cross section of height, 500-hPa height, total energy budget, and moisture budget are analyzed to investigate the biases in the simulated arctic climate. The results show that the model simulates anomalously low SLP, too much storm activity, and anomalously strong baroclinicity to the west of Greenland and vice versa to the east of Greenland. This bias is mainly attributed to the model's topographic representation of Greenland. First, the broadened Greenland topography in the model distorts the path of cyclone waves over the North Atlantic Ocean. Second, the model oversimulates the ridge over Greenland, which intensifies its blocking effect and steers the cyclone waves clockwise around it and hence produces an artificial circum-Greenland trough. These biases are significantly alleviated when the horizontal resolution increases to T42. Over the Arctic basin, the model simulates large amounts of low-level (stratus) clouds in winter and almost no stratus in summer, which is opposite to the observations. This bias is mainly due to the location of the simulated SLP features and the negative anomaly of storm activity, which prevent the transport of moisture into this region during summer but favor this transport in winter. The moisture budget analysis shows that the model's net annual precipitation (P-E) between 70 deg N and the North Pole is 6.6 times larger than the observations and the model transports six times more moisture into this region. The bias in the advection term is attributed to the positive moisture fixer scheme and the distorted flow pattern. However, the excessive moisture transport into the Arctic basin does not solely result from the advection term. The contribution by the moisture fixer is as large as from advection. By contrast, the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme used in the CCM2 significantly improves the moisture simulation for this region; however, globally the error is as serious as for the positive moisture fixer scheme. Finally, because the model has such serious problems in simulating the present arctic climate, its simulations of past and future climate change for this region are questionable.

Bromwich, David H.↗

SUCCESS Studies of the Impact of Aircraft on Cirrus Clouds

During April of 1996 NASA will sponsor the SUCCESS project to better understand the impact of subsonic aircraft on the Earth's radiation budget. We plan to better determine the radiative properties of cirrus clouds and of contrails so that satellite observations can better determine their impact on Earth's radiation budget. We hope to determine how cirrus clouds form, whether the exhaust from subsonic aircraft presently affects the formation of cirrus clouds, and if the exhaust does affect the clouds whether the changes induced are of climatological significance. We seek to pave the way for future studies by developing and testing several new instruments. We also plan to better determine the characteristics of gaseous and particulate exhaust products from subsonic aircraft and their evolution in the region near the aircraft. In order to achieve our experimental objectives we plan to use the DC-8 aircraft as an in situ sampling platform. It will carry a wide variety of gaseous, particulate, radiative, and meteorological instruments. We will also use a T-39 aircraft primarily to sample the exhaust from other aircraft. It will carry a suite of instruments to measure particles and gases. We will employ an ER-2 aircraft as a remote sensing platform. The ER-2 will act as a surrogate satellite so that remote sensing observations can be related to the in situ parameters measured by the DC-8 and T-39. The mission strategy calls for a 5 week deployment beginning on April 8, 1996, and ending on May 10, 1996. During this time all three aircraft will be based in Salina, Kansas. A series of flights, averaging one every other day during this period, will be made mainly near the Department of Energy's Climate and Radiation Testbed site (CART) located in Northern Oklahoma, and Southern Kansas. During this same time period an extensive set of ground based measurements will be made by the DOE, which will also be operating several aircraft in the area to better understand the radiative properties of the atmosphere. Additional flights will be made over the Rocky Mountains, to investigate wave clouds. Flights will also be made over the Gulf of Mexico to utilize an oceanic background for remote sensing measurements. The results of this mission will be presented in this talk.

Toon, Owen B.↗

Ocean Turbulence: Two-Point Closure Model Momentum, Heat and Salt Vertical Diffusivities in the Presence of Shear - Paper 3

In papers 1 and 2 we have presented the results of the most updated 1-point closure model for the turbulent vertical diffusivities of momentum, heat and salt, K(sub m,h,s). In this paper, we derive the analytic expressions for K(sub m,h,s) using a new 2-point closure model that has recently been developed and successfully tested against some approx. 80 turbulence statistics for different flows. The new model has no free parameters. The expressions for K(sub m, h. s) are analytical functions of two stability parameters: the Turner number R(sub rho) (salinity gradient/temperature gradient) and the Richardson number R(sub i) (temperature gradient/shear). The turbulent kinetic energy K and its rate of dissipation may be taken local or non-local (K-epsilon model). Contrary to all previous models that to describe turbulent mixing below the mixed layer (ML) have adopted three adjustable "background diffusivities" for momentum. heat and salt, we propose a model that avoids such adjustable diffusivities. We assume that below the ML, K(sub m,h,s) have the same functional dependence on R(sub i) and R(sub rho) derived from the turbulence model. However, in order to compute R(sub i) below the ML, we use data of vertical shear due to wave-breaking measured by Gargett et al. (1981). The procedure frees the model from adjustable background diffusivities and indeed we use the same model throughout the entire vertical extent of the ocean. Using the new K(sub m,h, s), we run an O-GCM and present a variety of results that we compare with Levitus and the KPP model. Since the traditional 1-point (used in papers 1 and 2) and the new 2-point closure models used here represent different modeling philosophies and procedures, testing them in an O-GCM is indispensable. The basic motivation is to show that the new 2-point closure model gives results that are overall superior to the 1-point closure in spite of the fact that the latter rely on several adjustable parameters while the new 2-point closure has none. After the extensive comparisons presented in papers 1 and 2, we conclude that the new model presented here is overall superior for it not only is parameter free but also 2 because is part of a more general turbulence model that has been previously successfully tested on a wide variety of other types of turbulent flows.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Signal-to-noise ratio for acoustic detection in the deep ocean

A simple method is presented for studying the thermoacoustic wave generated by a heat pulse. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) is then calculated for a typical hadronic-electromagnetic cascade in the deep ocean where low frequencies are masked by surface noise. It is found that a maximum useful range of about 16 km is found for typical conditions at 5 km depth. It is shown that in order to obtain useful signals with S/N greater than 100 at distances of 1 to 16 km, the cascade energy must be 10 to the 16th to 10 to the 18th eV. Finally, attention is given to further refinements of the theory of acoustic detection which remain to be investigated.

Bowen, T.↗

Satellite radar altimeters - Present and future oceanographic capabilities

Satellite radar altimeters have the ability to provide information related to ocean wave heights, wind speed, and currents. The present investigation has the objective to demonstrate the current capabilities and to indicate ways to increase the information content of the altimeter return through the use of wider bandwidth, higher pulse repetition frequencies (PRF), and multibeam. Altimeters aboard Skylab, Geos-3, and Seasat-1 have provided investigators with valuable experience in translating the radar observables into oceanic parameters. Basically, an altimeter transmits a narrow pulse and measures the time interval until the return energy from the ocean surface is received. That direct measure of the satellite altitude can be interpreted in terms of surface topography. Attention is given to altimeter oceanographic measurements, altimeter return pulse characteristics, satellite pointing and surface slopes, the adaptive tracker for terrain mapping, and a multibeam altimeter.

Townsend, W. F.↗

Kelvin-Helmholtz waves in the ocean

Large amplitude short waves confined near the crests of a swell have been observed when a stiff breeze was blowing against the swell. This would seem to imply the existence of both a wavelength-selective generating mechanism and a trapping mechanism, neither of which is to be expected of surface gravity waves of the observed length. It is suggested that there are significant changes in the dynamics of such waves if allowance is made for the dynamic coupling between wind and waves. For a Kelvin-Helmholtz model it is shown that energy transfer rates from the turbulent pressure fluctuations are greatly enhanced for subcritical conditions by the inclusion of the dynamic coupling. The group velocity of subcritical waves is profoundly affected, becoming infinite at the stability boundary. Thus subcritical waves could be trapped on a swell. An examination of the effects of wind shear suggest that Kelvin-Helmholtz type instability could still be present, although for stronger winds, particularly for rather longer waves.

Mahony, J. J.↗

Evidence for self-refraction in a convergence zone: NPE (Nonlinear progressive wave equation) model results

The nonlinear progressive wave equation (NPE) model was developed by the Naval Ocean Research and Development Activity during 1982 to 1987 to study nonlinear effects in long range oceanic propagation of finite amplitude acoustic waves, including weak shocks. The NPE model was applied to propagation of a generic shock wave (initial condition provided by Sandia Division 1533) in a few illustrative environments. The following consequences of nonlinearity are seen by comparing linear and nonlinear NPE results: (1) a decrease in shock strength versus range (a well-known result of entropy increases at the shock front); (2) an increase in the convergence zone range; and (3) a vertical meandering of the energy path about the corresponding linear ray path. Items (2) and (3) are manifestations of self-refraction.

Mcdonald, B. Edward↗

The Surface Energy Budget and Precipitation Efficiency for Convective Systems During TOGA, COARE, GATE, SCSMEX and ARM: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

A two-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model is used to simulate convective systems that developed in various geographic locations. Observed large-scale advective tendencies for potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum derived from field campaigns are used as the main forcing. By examining the surface energy budgets, the model results show that the two largest terms are net condensation (heating/drying) and imposed large-scale forcing (cooling/moistening) for tropical oceanic cases. These two terms arc opposite in sign, however. The contributions by net radiation and latent heat flux to the net condensation vary in these tropical cases, however. For cloud systems that developed over the South China Sea and eastern Atlantic, net radiation (cooling) accounts for about 20% or more of the net condensation. However, short-wave heating and long-wave cooling are in balance with each other for cloud systems over the West Pacific region such that the net radiation is very small. This is due to the thick anvil clouds simulated in the cloud systems over the Pacific region. Large-scale cooling exceeds large-scale moistening in the Pacific and Atlantic cases. For cloud systems over the South China Sea, however, there is more large-scale moistening than cooling even though the cloud systems developed in a very moist environment. though For three cloud systems that developed over a mid-latitude continent, the net radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes play a much more important role. This means the accurate measurement of surface fluxes and radiation is crucial for simulating these mid-latitude cases.

Tao, W.-K.↗

ERTS-1 anomalous dark patches

The author has identified the following significant results. Through combined use of imagery from ERTS-1 and NOAA-2 satellites was found that when the sun elevation exceeds 55 degrees, the ERTS-1 imagery is subject to considerable contamination by sunlight even though the actual specular point is nearly 300 nautical miles from nadir. Based on sea surface wave slope information, a wind speed of 10 knots will theoretically provide approximately 0.5 percent incident solar reflectance under observed ERTS multispectral scanner detectors. This reflectance nearly doubles under the influence of a 20 knot wind. The most pronounced effect occurs in areas of calm water where anomalous dark patches are observed. Calm water at distances from the specular point found in ERTS scenes will reflect no solar energy to the multispectral scanner, making these regions stand out as dark areas in all bands in an ocean scene otherwise comprosed by a general diffuse sunlight from rougher ocean surfaces. Anomalous dark patches in the outer parts of the glitter zones may explain the unusual appearance of some scenes.

Strong, A. E.↗