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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the Relative Contribution from Tropical Indo-Pacific SST to Asian Monsoon Precipitation Variability Using LIM

Abstract A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances the variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1981

Performance evaluation of a spaceborne scatterometer

Study results are presented showing performance capability of a spaceborne scatterometer to operationally measure ocean surface wind speed and direction. In addition, a research mode is described which will allow development of improved radar signatures for ocean, sea ice, and land targets. The study results show that a scatterometer can meet the operational requirements of + or - 2 m/s wind speed accuracy (or + or - 10%, whichever is greater) and + or - 20 deg wind direction accuracy over most of the expected ocean surface conditions. The six beam scatterometer design evaluated is shown to be skillful (greater than 90% correct) in specifying the correct wind vector solution (with a 180 deg ambiguity) from the multiple solutions derived; further improvement must rely on meteorological and pattern recognition techniques now under study.

Grantham, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Changes in Seasonal Cloud Cover over the Arctic Seas from Satellite and Surface Observations

Winter and spring changes in cloudiness are compared over the arctic seas (ocean areas north of 60 degrees N) from the TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) Polar Pathfinder retrievals and two separate datasets derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). All satellite products exhibit significant decreases in cloud fraction over the arctic seas during winter (December, January, February) on the order of 5 %/ decade. An equally striking increase in spring (March, April, May) cloudiness is evident from the TOVS Pathfinder (TPP) and the extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) projects. In the Central Arctic these positive trends can be as large as 15 %/decade. Surface observations from the Russian drifting meteorological stations are consistent with satellite-observed changes during the 1980s. Negative trends in spring cloudiness reported by Comiso [2003] are in conflict with these findings. Spring changes in cloudiness are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. These dramatic, large-scale changes may have substantial impacts on the surface energy balance.

Schweiger, Axel J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Variability of Fram Strait Ice Flux and North Atlantic Oscillation

An important term in the mass balance of the Arctic Ocean sea ice is the ice export. We estimated the winter sea ice export through the Fram Strait using ice motion from satellite passive microwave data and ice thickness data from moored upward looking sonars. The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978-1996) is 670,000 square km, approximately 7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 sq. km in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 sq km in 1995. The daily, monthly and interannual variabilities of the ice area flux are high. There is an upward trend in the ice area flux over the 18-year record. The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 cubic km ranging from a low of 1375 cubic km in 1990 to a high of 2791 cubic km in 1994. The sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait explains more than 80% of the variance in the ice flux over the 18-year record. We use the coefficients from the regression of the time-series of area flux versus pressure gradient across the Fram Strait and ice thickness data to estimate the summer area and volume flux. The average 12-month area flux and volume flux are 919,000 sq km and 2366 cubic km. We find a significant correlation (R =0.86) between the area flux and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index over the months of December through March. Correlation between our six years of volume flux estimates and the NAO index gives R =0.56. During the high NAO years, a more intense Icelandic low increases the gradient in the sea-level pressure by almost 1 mbar across the Fram Strait thus increasing the atmospheric forcing on ice transport. Correlation is reduced during the negative NAO years because of decreased dominance of this large-scale atmospheric pattern on the sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait. Additional information is contained in the original.

Kwok, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2007

Seasonal Evolution and Interannual Variability of the Local Solar Energy Absorbed by the Arctic Sea Ice-Ocean System

The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m(sup -2). There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m(sup -2). The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup.

Perovich, Donald K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

thermosteric sea-level change↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Well Can CMIP6 Models Represent the Observed Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall?

This study evaluates the ability of CMIP6 climate models to simulate the observed effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability. Using observational data and the large ensemble historical simulations of seven CMIP6 models from 1950 to 2014, we applied a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to isolate the impacts of tropical Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs and their interaction on the interannual variability of ISMR. Overall, CMIP6 models well reproduced the observed enhanced (reduced) ISMR variability from Pacific SSTAs (Indian Ocean SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction), but with varying spatial patterns and magnitudes. While CESM2 and E3SM-2-0 showed the best agreement with observations for the effects of Pacific SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction, respectively, CMIP6 models showed mixed results for the impacts from Indian Ocean SSTAs. Composite analysis of ISMR anomalies during the developing phases of pure and co-occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events revealed that the impacts from Pacific SSTAs were captured reasonably well by E3SM-2-0, CESM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, while E3SM-2-0 also showed the best agreement with observations for the effects from the Indo-Pacific interaction. However, all models showed substantial biases in simulating the Indian Ocean SSTA impacts on ISMR, especially for pure El Niño events. Overall, this study provides new insights into how individual CMIP6 models simulate the isolated impacts from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, which has important applications for improving ISMR predictions and interpreting ISMR future projections.

monsoon↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variations in radiative heating of humid biomass burning aerosols in the southeast Atlantic from airborne observations and reanalysis

The atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) experiences consistent springtime biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread agricultural fires on the African continent. This smoke layer is initially lofted high in a continental mixed layer (~5-6km) and is then transported westward into the free troposphere where it overlies and ultimately mixes into a stratocumulus-topped oceanic boundary layer. Coincident with this smoke is an elevated humidity signal which is present from the time a given airmass is over the continental source region. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) was a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission with the goal of measuring aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties over this region over three deployments in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018. Measurements included in situ profile measurements of aerosol physical and optical properties, trace gas concentrations, and cloud properties, as well as column measurements of aerosol optical depth and trace gas concentrations from an airborne sun photometer. Here we present results from each of the ORACLES deployments over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. Despite the differing locations and season of each deployment, we show that there is good agreement between the airborne ORACLES dataset and large-scale reanalyses, specifically the ECMWF ERA5 reanalyses (and, to a degree, the CAMS product) as compared to other available products. This agreement allows us to examine multi-year seasonal patterns and trends beyond the three months with available aircraft data. In both the data and reanalysis, we find distinct variations between each deployment in terms of vertical smoke distribution and correlation to atmospheric specific humidity, due to changing conditions over the BB season. We trace the origin and the history of these smoky airmasses and finally, we briefly discuss the broader radiative and dynamical implications of these results for conditions of aerosols overlying stratocumulus clouds.

K. Pistone↗
DOE OSTI2023

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol hygroscopicity over the southeast Atlantic Ocean during the biomass burning season – Part 1: From the perspective of scattering enhancement​​​​​​​

Aerosol hygroscopicity plays a vital role in aerosol radiative forcing. One key parameter describing hygroscopicity is the scattering enhancement factor, f(RH), defined as the ratio of the scattering coefficient at humidified relative humidity (RH) to its dry value. Here, we utilize the f(80 %) from ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) 2016 and 2018 airborne measurements to investigate the hygroscopicity of aerosols, its vertical distribution, its relationship with chemical composition, and its sensitivity to organic aerosol (OA) hygroscopicity over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean during the biomass burning (BB) season. We found that aerosol hygroscopicity remains steady above 2 km, with a mean f(80 %) of 1.40 ± 0.17. Below 2 km, aerosol hygroscopicity increases with decreasing altitude, with a mean f(80 %) of 1.51 ± 0.22, consistent with higher values of BB aerosol hygroscopicity found in the literature. The hygroscopicity parameter of OA (κ OA ) is retrieved from the Mie model with a mean value of 0.11 ± 0.08, which is in the middle to upper range compared to the literature. Higher OA hygroscopicity is related to aerosols that are more aged, oxidized, and present at lower altitudes. The enhanced biomass burning aerosol (BBA) hygroscopicity at lower altitudes is mainly due to a lower OA fraction, increased sulfate fraction, and greater κ OA at lower altitudes. We propose a parameterization that quantifies f(RH) with chemical composition and κOA based on Mie simulation of internally mixed OA–(NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 –BC mixtures. The good agreement between the predictions and the ORACLES measurements implies that the aerosols in the SEA during the BB season can be largely represented by the OA–(NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 –BC internal mixture with respect to the f(RH) prediction. The sensitivity of f(RH) to κ OA indicates that applying a constant κ OA is only suitable when the OA fraction is low and κ OA shows limited variation. However, in situations deviating these two criteria, κ OA can notably impact scattering coefficients and aerosol radiative effect; therefore, accounting for κ OA variability is recommended.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures and Ice Extent from Satellite and Surface Observations

Surface air temperatures observed from stations around Antarctica have indicated predominantly positive trends which are as high as 0.4K per decade along the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the average air temperature during summer in the West Antarctic region is about -6 K, and since most of the stations are near coastal regions, it is important to know whether such trends are due to a local or large scale phenomenon. We analyzed about 19 years of infrared satellite data (1979-1997) to obtain a spatially detailed study of the variability of surface temperatures over the entire Antarctic region. We also analyzed potential impact of temperature changes over the sea ice cover using co-registered and nearly coincident microwave satellite data. The surface temperatures inferred from infrared data are shown to agree well with those observed from the limited number of Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a standard deviation of less than 3K. The 19-year temperature data set shows positive trends of 0.12, 0.68, and 0.41 C per decade in ocean, sea ice and ice sheet surfaces, respectively. The sensitivity of the trend to record length was studied, using long term station data sets, and the results show that the trends start to stabilize at around 2 decades which is about the record length of satellite data. However, interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large, especially in the ice sheets, and the 95% confidence level for the trends ranges from 0.12 to 1.22 for sea ice and from -0.74 to 1.55 C per decade for the ice sheet. In the sea ice regions, the position of the ice edge in winter with respect to the northernmost position of sea ice during the study period is also shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the continent. This pattern is similar to that suggested by the presence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) but the wavenumber appears to be predominantly mode 3 (instead of reported mode 2) for the Antarctic region. Unexpectedly, trends in the sea ice extent are found to be positive in most Antarctic sectors during the same period with the exception of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region.

Comisc, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Fortnightly Atmospheric 'Tide' at Bali Caused by Oceanic Tidal Mixing in Lombok Strait

Strong tidal currents in and around the narrow straits of the Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, affect ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) via non-linear tide-induced mixing. A fortnightly spring–neap cycle in tidal currents can induce a similar cycle in SST, which has been observed to occur in and south of Lombok Strait. Here we report on an atmospheric response to the fortnightly SST cycle which is detected in relative humidity and air temperature measurements at Bali. The fortnightly cycles in both the ocean SST and the Bali atmospheric data have a strong seasonal cycle, with peak signals occurring during boreal summer.

Spring–neap cycle↗
NASA NTRS2006

Upwelling of Arctic pycnocline associated with shear motion of sea ice

High-resolution radar imagery shows that the dynamic response of winter sea ice to gradients in large-scale surface wind stress is often localized along quasi-linear fractures hundreds of kilometers long. Relative shearing motion across these narrow fractures can exceed 10 cm/s. In one event recorded during the drift of the SHEBA ice camp, we observed an intense zone of pycnocline upwelling (approx.14 m) associated with significant shear motion near the camp, while upward turbulent heat flux in the ocean boundary layer reached nearly 400 W/sq m, an order of magnitude greater than at any other time during the year-long drift. We attribute the upwelling to Ekman pumping associated with concentrated ice shear. Over the entire Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, this process could be responsible for significant heat exchange between the cold surface layer and warmer subsurface water at the ubiquitous fractures resulting from large-scale atmosphere-ice interactions.

McPhee, M. G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition—Atmosphere

With the Arctic rapidly changing, the needs to observe, understand, and model the changes are essential. To support these needs, an annual cycle of observations of atmospheric properties, processes, and interactions were made while drifting with the sea ice across the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. An international team designed and implemented the comprehensive program to document and characterize all aspects of the Arctic atmospheric system in unprecedented detail, using a variety of approaches, and across multiple scales. These measurements were coordinated with other observational teams to explore cross-cutting and coupled interactions with the Arctic Ocean, sea ice, and ecosystem through a variety of physical and biogeochemical processes. This overview outlines the breadth and complexity of the atmospheric research program, which was organized into 4 subgroups: atmospheric state, clouds and precipitation, gases and aerosols, and energy budgets. Atmospheric variability over the annual cycle revealed important influences from a persistent large-scale winter circulation pattern, leading to some storms with pressure and winds that were outside the interquartile range of past conditions suggested by long-term reanalysis. Similarly, the MOSAiC location was warmer and wetter in summer than the reanalysis climatology, in part due to its close proximity to the sea ice edge. The comprehensiveness of the observational program for characterizing and analyzing atmospheric phenomena is demonstrated via a winter case study examining air mass transitions and a summer case study examining vertical atmospheric evolution. Overall, the MOSAiC atmospheric program successfully met its objectives and was the most comprehensive atmospheric measurement program to date conducted over the Arctic sea ice. The obtained data will support a broad range of coupled-system scientific research and provide an important foundation for advancing multiscale modeling capabilities in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Satellite Data Sets in the Polar Regions

We have generated about two decades of consistently derived geophysical parameters in the polar regions. The key parameters are sea ice concentration, surface temperature, albedo, and cloud cover statistics. Sea ice concentrations were derived from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) data and the Special Scanning Cl Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data from several platforms using the enhanced Bootstrap Algorithm for the period 1978 through 1999. The new algorithm reduces the errors associated with spatial and temporal variations in the emissivity and surface temperatures of sea ice. Also, bad data at ocean/land interfaces are identified and deleted in an unsupervised manner. Surface ice temperature, albedo and cloud cover statistics are derived simultaneously from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data from 1981 through 1999 and mapped at a higher resolution but the same format as the ice concentration data. The technique makes use these co-registered ice concentration maps to enable cloud masking to be done separately for open ocean, sea ice and land areas. The effect of inversion is minimized by taking into consideration the expected changes in the effect of inversion with altitude, especially in the Antarctic. A technique for ice type regional classification has also been developed using multichannel cluster analysis and a neural network. This provide a means to identify large areas of thin ice, first year ice, and older ice types. The data sets have been shown to be coherent with each other and provide a powerful tool for in depth studies of the currently changing Arctic and Antarctic environment.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The MOSAiC Distributed Network: Observing the coupled Arctic system with multidisciplinary, coordinated platforms

Central Arctic properties and processes are important to the regional and global coupled climate system. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Distributed Network (DN) of autonomous ice-tethered systems aimed to bridge gaps in our understanding of temporal and spatial scales, in particular with respect to the resolution of Earth system models. By characterizing variability around local measurements made at a Central Observatory, the DN covers both the coupled system interactions involving the ocean-ice-atmosphere interfaces as well as three-dimensional processes in the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. The more than 200 autonomous instruments (“buoys”) were of varying complexity and set up at different sites mostly within 50 km of the Central Observatory. During an exemplary midwinter month, the DN observations captured the spatial variability of atmospheric processes on sub-monthly time scales, but less so for monthly means. They show significant variability in snow depth and ice thickness, and provide a temporally and spatially resolved characterization of ice motion and deformation, showing coherency at the DN scale but less at smaller spatial scales. Ocean data show the background gradient across the DN as well as spatially dependent time variability due to local mixed layer sub-mesoscale and mesoscale processes, influenced by a variable ice cover. The second case (May–June 2020) illustrates the utility of the DN during the absence of manually obtained data by providing continuity of physical and biological observations during this key transitional period. We show examples of synergies between the extensive MOSAiC remote sensing observations and numerical modeling, such as estimating the skill of ice drift forecasts and evaluating coupled system modeling. The MOSAiC DN has been proven to enable analysis of local to mesoscale processes in the coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system and has the potential to improve model parameterizations of important, unresolved processes in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

West African Monsoon System’s Responses to Global Ocean–Regional Atmosphere Coupling

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling’s influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ~25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes’ relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988-1994. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (-0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea were observed providing direct confirmation of the impact of SO on the Antarctic sea ice cover.

Kwok, R.↗