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At least 109 records · Page 6

The effect of perturbation of convective energy transport on the luminosity and radius of the sun

The response of solar models to perturbations of the efficiency of convective energy transport is studied. Such perturbations primarily affect the shallow superadiabatic layer of the convective envelope. Independent of the details of the perturbation scheme, the resulting change in the solar radius is always very small compared to the change in luminosity. This appears to be true for any physical mechanism of solar variability which operates in the outer layers of the convection zone. Changes of the solar radius have been inferred from historical observations of solar eclipses in 1715 and 1925. Considering the constraints on concurrent luminosity changes, this type of solar variability must be indicative of changes in the solar structure at substantial depths below the superadiabatic layer of the convective envelope.

Endal, A. S.↗

A multiprocessing architecture for real-time monitoring

A multitasking architecture for performing real-time monitoring and analysis using knowledge-based problem solving techniques is described. To handle asynchronous inputs and perform in real time, the system consists of three or more distributed processes which run concurrently and communicate via a message passing scheme. The Data Management Process acquires, compresses, and routes the incoming sensor data to other processes. The Inference Process consists of a high performance inference engine that performs a real-time analysis on the state and health of the physical system. The I/O Process receives sensor data from the Data Management Process and status messages and recommendations from the Inference Process, updates its graphical displays in real time, and acts as the interface to the console operator. The distributed architecture has been interfaced to an actual spacecraft (NASA's Hubble Space Telescope) and is able to process the incoming telemetry in real-time (i.e., several hundred data changes per second). The system is being used in two locations for different purposes: (1) in Sunnyville, California at the Space Telescope Test Control Center it is used in the preflight testing of the vehicle; and (2) in Greenbelt, Maryland at NASA/Goddard it is being used on an experimental basis in flight operations for health and safety monitoring.

Schmidt, James L.↗

Simultaneous Extreme-Ultraviolet Explorer and Optical Observations of Ad Leonis: Evidence for Large Coronal Loops and the Neupert Effect in Stellar Flares

We report on the first simultaneous Extreme-Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and optical observations of flares on the dMe flare star AD Leonis. The data show the following features: (1) Two flares (one large and one of moderate size) of several hours duration were observed in the EUV wavelength range; (2) Flare emission observed in the optical precedes the emission seen with EUVE; and (3) Several diminutions (DIMs) in the optical continuum were observed during the period of optical flare activity. To interpret these data, we develop a technique for deriving the coronal loop length from the observed rise and decay behavior of the EUV flare. The technique is generally applicable to existing and future coronal observations of stellar flares. We also determine the pressure, column depth, emission measure, loop cross-sectional area, and peak thermal energy during the two EUV flares, and the temperature, area coverage, and energy of the optical continuum emission. When the optical and coronal data are combined, we find convincing evidence of a stellar 'Neupert effect' which is a strong signature of chromospheric evaporation models. We then argue that the known spatial correlation of white-light emission with hard X-ray emission in solar flares, and the identification of the hard X-ray emission with nonthermal bremsstrahlung produced by accelerated electrons, provides evidence that flare heating on dMe stars is produced by the same electron precipitation mechanism that is inferred to occur on the Sun. We provide a thorough picture of the physical processes that are operative during the largest EUV flare, compare and contrast this picture with the canonical solar flare model, and conclude that the coronal loop length may be the most important factor in determining the flare rise time and energetics.

Hawley, Suzanne L.↗

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

Objective: To investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type (intracloud [IC] vs. cloud-to-ground [CG] ) and extent. Data and Methodology: a) NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. b) LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles (Koshak et al. 2012). c) LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler (DD) and polarimetric radar analyses of UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, Cband, polarimetric) and KHTX (S-band, Doppler).

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation

We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.

Cheeseman, Peter↗

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) - The first project of the World Climate Research Programme

The first project of the World Climate Research Program is the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, (ISCCP) whose objective is the collection and analysis of satellite radiance data in order to infer the global distribution of cloud radiative properties and improve the modeling of cloud effects on climate. The operational component of ISCCP takes advantage of the global coverage provided by the current and planned international array of geostationary and polar-orbiting meteorological satellites in the 1980s. It will produce a five-year global radiance and cloud data set. The research component of ISCCP will coordinate studies to validate climatology, improve cloud analysis algorithms, improve cloud effects modelling, and investigate the role of clouds in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrologic cycle.

Schiffer, R. A.↗

Simulation studies related to the design of post-FGGE observing systems

The results of three detailed simulation studies are presented. The first study consists of a comparative assessment of the performance of an advanced moisture/temperature sounder (AMTS) being proposed by NASA as a follow-on replacement to the current HIRS-2 operational sounder aboard the NOAA weather satellites. The second study was concerned with assessing the relative accuracies of inferred atmospheric states for idealized lidar wind profiling systems, temperature profiling systems, temperature profiling systems, surface pressure systems, and composite systems. The third study incorporated the above systems into a highly realistic data analysis/forecast cycle from which a series of forecast impact studies were conducted. These studies, taken together, give us a picture of the potential that emerging technoloies can offer in the determination of the basic atmospheric variables required for long-range numerical weather and climate prediction.

Halem, M.↗

Dynamics of Vapour Bubbles in Nucleate Boiling: Evolution of Thermally Controlled Bubbles - 2

The previously developed dynamic theory of growth and detachment of vapour bubbles under conditions of nucleate pool boiling is applied to study motion and deformation of a bubble evolving at a single nucleation site. The bubble growth is presumed to be thermally controlled, and two components of heat transfer to the bubble are accounted of: the one from the bulk of surrounding liquid and the one due to heat conduction across a liquid microlayer formed underneath the bubble. Bubble evolution is governed by the buoyancy and an effective surface tension force, both the forces making the bubble centre of mass move away from the wall and, thus, assisting its detachment. Buoyancy-controlled and surface-tension-controlled regimes are considered separately in a meticulous way. The duration of the whole process of bubble evolution till detachment, the rate of growth, and the bubble departure size are found as functions of time and physical and operating parameters. Some repeatedly observed phenomena, such as an influence of gravity on the growth rate, are explained. Inferences of the model agree qualitatively with available experimental evidence, and conclusions pertaining to the dependence on gravity of the bubble radius at detachment and the whole time of the bubble development when being attached to the wall are confirmed quantitatively.

Buyevich, Yu A.↗

A Multi-Tier Autonomous Aerial Architecture for Wildfire Detection, Characterization, and Communication in Infrastructure-Denied Environments

Wildfire response depends on how fast an ignition can be confirmed and located, especially in remote regions where ground-based communication and monitoring may be limited. Geostationary sensors provide frequent observations but at kilometer-scale resolution, which is too coarse to resolve small fires in remote terrain. Ground camera networks require sightlines and infrastructure that back-country areas lack. To address these limitations, this work proposes a Multi-Tier Autonomous Wildfire Intelligence System that combines wide-area monitoring with targeted, high-resolution sensing. A solar-powered high-altitude long endurance (HALE) platform operating at approximately 60,000 ft provides persistent wide-area thermal and optical surveillance, running onboard edge inference to screen candidate ignitions and reduce false positives and downlink bandwidth. When a candidate ignition is detected, low-altitude uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) can be deployed to conduct localized observations, including high-resolution imaging and atmospheric measurements such as wind and plume observation. By combining persistent detection with local sensing, the proposed architecture is designed to provide first responders with timely, high-resolution information about fire location and behavior to aid in emergency decision making.

Wildfire management, UAS, drones↗

Earth observing scanning polarimeter

Climate forcing by tropospheric aerosols is receiving increased attention because of the realization that the climate effects may be large, while our knowledge of global aerosol characteristics and temporal changes is very poor. Tropospheric aerosols cause a direct radiative forcing due simply to their scattering and absorption of solar radiation, as well as an indirect effect as cloud condensation nuclei which can modify the shortwave reflectivity of clouds. Sulfate aerosols tend to increase planetary albedo through both the direct and indirect effects; a cooling due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols has been estimated of order 1 W/sq m, noting that this is similar in magnitude to the present anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming. Other aerosols, including those from biomass burning and wind-blown desert dust are also of potential climatic importance. At present, the only global monitoring of tropospheric aerosols is a NOAA operational product, aerosol optical thickness, obtained using channel-1 (0.58-0.68 mu m) radiances from the AVHRR. With this single channel radiance data, one must use an approach which is based on the inferred excess of reflected radiance owing to scattering by the aerosols over that expected from theoretical calculations. This approach is suited only for situations where the surface has a low albedo that is well known a priori. Thus, the NOAA operational product is restricted to coverage over the ocean at AVHRR scan angles well away from sun glint, and aerosol changes are subject to confusion with changes caused by either optically thin or subpixel clouds. Because optically thin aerosols have only a small effect on the radiance, accurate measurements for optical thickness less than 0.1 (which is a typical background level) are precluded. Moreover, some of the largest and most important aerosol changes are expected over land. The Earth Observing Scanning Polarimeter (EOSP) instrument, based upon design heritage and analysis techniques developed for planetary missions, will retrieve tropospheric aerosol characteristics from measurements of multispectral radiance and polarization. Moreover, the same radiance and polarization measurements will also provide very precise information on cloud properties and maps of surface characteristics for cloud-free regions. These capabilities also give EOSP the unique ability to discriminate aerosol from clouds and surface.

Travis, Larry↗

Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change from MSU and AMSU

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics. We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 Kdecade(sup -1) during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model. This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

Prabhakara, Cuddapah↗

Plan recognition and generalization in command languages with application to telerobotics

A method for pragmatic inference as a necessary accompaniment to command languages is proposed. The approach taken focuses on the modeling and recognition of the human operator's intent, which relates sequences of domain actions ('plans') to changes in some model of the task environment. The salient feature of this module is that it captures some of the physical and linguistic contextual aspects of an instruction. This provides a basis for generalization and reinterpretation of the instruction in different task environments. The theoretical development is founded on previous work in computational linguistics and some recent models in the theory of action and intention. To illustrate these ideas, an experimental command language to a telerobot is implemented. The program consists of three different components: a robot graphic simulation, the command language itself, and the domain-independent pragmatic inference module. Examples of task instruction processes are provided to demonstrate the benefits of this approach.

Yared, Wael I.↗

Doppler and Reflectivity Measurements at Two Closely-Spaced Frequencies

Spaceborne and airborne radars are limited with a respect to the mass and size of the instrument and the power available to operate it. As a consequence, dual-wavelength radars that require separate antennas and power amplifiers are expensive and often impractical. However, if the frequency difference can be reduced so that a single antenna and the same radio-frequency subsystem can be used for both frequencies, dual- wavelength Doppler measurements can be made with a radar of about the same size and mass as its single-frequency counterpart. In the first part of the paper we present calculations of the reflectivity factor differences as functions of the center frequency from 10 to 35 GHz and for frequency differences between -10% and 10% of the center frequency. The results indicate that differential-frequency operation at Ka-band frequencies (26.5 - 40 GHz) provides relatively strong differential signals if the frequencies can be separated by at least 5%. Unlike lower frequency operation, the differential signals at Ka-band (both reflectivity and Doppler) are directly related to the median mass diameter. An important feature of the differential mean Doppler is that it depends only on the drop-size dependent part of the radial velocity. In principle, the mean and mean differential Doppler data from a nadir-looking platform can be used to infer vertical air motion and characteristics of the particle size distribution. To test the instrument concept, the ER-2 Doppler radar was modified for differential frequency operation. Measurements by the modified radar, operating at frequencies of 9.1 GHz and 10 GHz, were made using an 8 degree zenith-pointing offset parabolic antenna. Simultaneous data were taken with an optical rain gauge and an impact disdrometer. Measured and DSD-estimated values of the differential dBZ mean Doppler are presented.

Meneghini, Robert↗

Comet 81p/Wild 2: The Updated Stardust Coma Dust Fluence Measurement for Smaller (Sub 10-Micrometre) Particles

Micrometre and smaller scale dust within cometary comae can be observed by telescopic remote sensing spectroscopy [1] and the particle size and abundance can be measured by in situ spacecraft impact detectors [2]. Initial interpretation of the samples returned from comet 81P/Wild 2 by the Stardust spacecraft [3] appears to show that very fine dust contributes not only a small fraction of the solid mass, but is also relatively sparse [4], with a low negative power function describing grain size distribution, contrasting with an apparent abundance indicated by the on-board Dust Flux Monitor Instrument (DFMI) [5] operational during the encounter. For particles above 10 m diameter there is good correspondence between results from the DFMI and the particle size inferred from experimental calibration [6] of measured aerogel track and aluminium foil crater dimensions (as seen in Figure 4 of [4]). However, divergence between data-sets becomes apparent at smaller sizes, especially submicrometre, where the returned sample data are based upon location and measurement of tiny craters found by electron microscopy of Al foils. Here effects of detection efficiency tail-off at each search magnification can be seen in the down-scale flattening of each scale component, but are reliably compensated by sensible extrapolation between segments. There is also no evidence of malfunction in the operation of DFMI during passage through the coma (S. Green, personal comm.), so can the two data sets be reconciled?

Price, M. C.↗

Learning and tuning fuzzy logic controllers through reinforcements

A new method for learning and tuning a fuzzy logic controller based on reinforcements from a dynamic system is presented. In particular, our Generalized Approximate Reasoning-based Intelligent Control (GARIC) architecture: (1) learns and tunes a fuzzy logic controller even when only weak reinforcements, such as a binary failure signal, is available; (2) introduces a new conjunction operator in computing the rule strengths of fuzzy control rules; (3) introduces a new localized mean of maximum (LMOM) method in combining the conclusions of several firing control rules; and (4) learns to produce real-valued control actions. Learning is achieved by integrating fuzzy inference into a feedforward network, which can then adaptively improve performance by using gradient descent methods. We extend the AHC algorithm of Barto, Sutton, and Anderson to include the prior control knowledge of human operators. The GARIC architecture is applied to a cart-pole balancing system and has demonstrated significant improvements in terms of the speed of learning and robustness to changes in the dynamic system's parameters over previous schemes for cart-pole balancing.

Berenji, Hamid R.↗

Analyzing spacecraft configurations through specialization and default reasoning

For an intelligent system to describe a real-world situation using as few statements as possible, it is necessary to make inferences based on observed data and to incorporate general knowledge of the reasoning domain into the description. These reasoning processes must reduce several levels of specific descriptions into only those few that most precisely describe the situation. Moreover, the system must be able to generate descriptions in the absence of data, as instructed by certain rules of inference. The deductions applied by the system, then, generate a high-level description from the low-level evidence provided by the real and default data sources. An implementation of these ideas in a real-world situation is described. The application concerns evaluation of Space Shuttle electromechanical system configurations by console operators in the Mission Control Center. A production system provides the reasoning mechanism through which the default assignments and specializations occur. Examples are provided within this domain for each type of inference, and the suitability is discussed of each toward achieving the goal of describing a situation in the fewest statements possible. Finally, several enhancements are suggested that will further increase the intelligence of similar spacecraft monitoring applications.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

Learning and tuning fuzzy logic controllers through reinforcements

This paper presents a new method for learning and tuning a fuzzy logic controller based on reinforcements from a dynamic system. In particular, our generalized approximate reasoning-based intelligent control (GARIC) architecture (1) learns and tunes a fuzzy logic controller even when only weak reinforcement, such as a binary failure signal, is available; (2) introduces a new conjunction operator in computing the rule strengths of fuzzy control rules; (3) introduces a new localized mean of maximum (LMOM) method in combining the conclusions of several firing control rules; and (4) learns to produce real-valued control actions. Learning is achieved by integrating fuzzy inference into a feedforward neural network, which can then adaptively improve performance by using gradient descent methods. We extend the AHC algorithm of Barto et al. (1983) to include the prior control knowledge of human operators. The GARIC architecture is applied to a cart-pole balancing system and demonstrates significant improvements in terms of the speed of learning and robustness to changes in the dynamic system's parameters over previous schemes for cart-pole balancing.

Berenji, Hamid R.↗

Toward the characterization of upper tropospheric clouds using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and Microwave Limb Sounder observations

We estimate the accuracy of cloud top altitude (Z) retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observing suite (ZA) on board the Earth Observing System Aqua platform. We compare ZA with coincident measurements of Z derived from the micropulse lidar and millimeter wave cloud radar at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites of Nauru and Manus islands (ZARM) and the inferred Z from vertically resolved Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ice water content (IWC) retrievals. The mean difference in ZA minus ZARM plus or minus one standard deviation ranges from −2.2 to 1.6 km ± 1.0 to 4.2 km for all cases of AIRS effective cloud fraction (f A) > 0.15 at Manus Island using the cloud radar only. The range of mean values results from using different approaches to determine ZARM, day/night differences, and the magnitude of f A; the variation about the mean decreases for increasing values of f A. Analysis of ZARM from the micropulse lidar at Nauru Island for cases restricted to 0.05 ≤ f A ≤ 0.15 indicates a statistically significant improvement in ZA − ZARM over the cloud radar-derived values at Manus Island. In these cases the ZA − ZARM difference is −1.1 to 2.1 km ± 3.0 to 4.5 km. These results imply that the operational ZA is quantitatively useful for constraining cirrus altitude despite the nominal 45 km horizontal resolution. Mean differences of cloud top pressure (PCLD) inferred from coincident AIRS and MLS ice water content (IWC) retrievals depend upon the method of defining AIRS PCLD (as with the ARM comparisons) over the MLS spatial scale, the peak altitude and maximum value of MLS IWC, and f A. AIRS and MLS yield similar vertical frequency distributions when comparisons are limited to f A > 0.1 and IWC > 1.0 mg m−3. Therefore the agreement depends upon the opacity of the cloud, with decreased agreement for optically tenuous clouds. Further, the mean difference and standard deviation of AIRS and MLS PCLD are highly dependent on the MLS tangent altitude. For MLS tangent altitudes greater than 146 hPa, the strength of the limb technique, the disagreement becomes statistically significant. This implies that AIRS and MLS “agree” in a statistical sense at lower tangent altitudes and “disagree” at higher tangent altitudes. These results provide important insights on upper tropospheric cloudiness as observed by nadir-viewing AIRS and limb-viewing MLS.

Wu, Dong L.↗