Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Optimization Under Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Safe Onboard Guidance and Control Under Probabilistic Uncertainty

An algorithm was developed that determines the fuel-optimal spacecraft guidance trajectory that takes into account uncertainty, in order to guarantee that mission safety constraints are satisfied with the required probability. The algorithm uses convex optimization to solve for the optimal trajectory. Convex optimization is amenable to onboard solution due to its excellent convergence properties. The algorithm is novel because, unlike prior approaches, it does not require time-consuming evaluation of multivariate probability densities. Instead, it uses a new mathematical bounding approach to ensure that probability constraints are satisfied, and it is shown that the resulting optimization is convex. Empirical results show that the approach is many orders of magnitude less conservative than existing set conversion techniques, for a small penalty in computation time.

Blackmore, Lars James↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of a Rotorcraft Conceptual Sizing Toolsuite

A computational framework to support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities for rotorcraft applications is presented using the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) conceptual sizing tool. A 90 passenger conceptual tiltrotor configuration was used for case demonstration in the modeling of uncertainties in NDARCs emission module. A non-intrusive forward propagation uncertainty quantification approach was applied to ensemble simulations using a Monte Carlo methodology with stratified Latin hypercube sampling. An off-the-shelf software, DAKOTA, which supports trade studies and design space exploration, including optimization, surrogate modeling and uncertainty analysis was used to address the research goals. A toolsuite was further developed incorporating DAKOTA with automated design processes and methods using function wrappers to execute program routines including support for data post-processing. Uncertainties in rotorcraft emissions modeling using the Average Temperature Response metric for a set mission profile were studied. It was shown that for the current study, using the base-line best estimate modeling parameters for the Average Temperature Response metric, NDARC under-estimates the effects of emissions when compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. A global sensitivity analysis was further undertaken to quantify the contribution of the various emission species on output sensitivity, hence uncertainty. The work demonstrates that the developed toolsuite is robust and will support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities in future rotorcraft design efforts.

Rotorcraft↗
NASA NTRS1979

Optimization and simulation of flight control laws under parameter uncertainty and external disturbances

Several tasks pertinent to flight control in parameter uncertainty and wind-gust loading were successfully completed. Identification algorithms for extracting stability and control derivatives from flight data taking gust loading into account were developed. They were verified by simulation and evaluated throughly on actual flight data taken on a Lockheed Jet Star flying in turbulence. In particular the need for automatically generated dither-like inputs was studied. Criteria for performance evaluation using stochastic models were developed for gust alleviation as well as handling quantities. Algorithms for assessing degradation in performance due to parameter uncertainty were developed and evaluated using flight test data.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Optimal Experimental Design With Fast Neural Network Surrogate Models

Designing optimal experiments minimizes the uncertainty of results and maximizes the efficient use of resources. Herein, machine learning surrogate models and the approximate coordinate exchange (ACE) algorithm are used to determine optimum experimental designs over large or arbitrarily restrictive design spaces. Optimal experimental design is particularly salient in materials science where experiments are expensive and material properties must often be inferred indirectly. The proposed framework is demonstrated by finding optimal experiments with which the hidden constituent properties of composite materials can be most efficiently inferred from observable experimental outcomes. The optimum experimental design is given by an information-theoretic criteria, which maximizes the conditional mutual information between the hidden properties and the expected experimental outcomes. To perform tractable optimization a neural network is trained as a surrogate model to mimic a physics based simulation, which can calculate the expected experimental outcome based on a candidate experimental design and sampled constituent properties. The ACE algorithm is used to optimize over large design spaces with many tests and controlled parameters where an exhaustive search would be intractable even with the surrogate model. Using this approach, optimal experimental designs that are consistent with those produced by heuristic knowledge and established best practices are found; then optimal designs in larger design spaces where heuristic knowledge is unavailable are examined.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2008

Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

optimization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Desensitized Aerocapture Guidance

Mission design flexibility can be increased using an aerocapture maneuver to capture into an orbit around a planet from a hyperbolic trajectory. In past work, bang-bang control has been shown as an optimal guidance solution that minimizes the $\Delta{V}$ required to get into a desired orbit using bank modulation. This work revisits aerocapture using a bank modulation problem to search for an optimal solution using a direct collocation method. Previous studies have shown that aerocapture performance is sensitive to atmospheric density. In the literature, several studies have used a desensitized control approach to make the optimal guidance more robust to uncertainties in the model. To this end, this work aims to develop a desensitized aerocapture guidance robust to uncertainty in atmospheric density. Furthermore, this work compares the robustness of the open-loop desensitized aerocapture guidance with optimal aerocapture guidance with an aerocapture application at Earth.

Pardha Sai Chadalavada↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Desensitized Aerocapture Guidance

Mission design flexibility can be increased using an aerocapture maneuver to capture into an orbit around a planet from a hyperbolic trajectory. In past work, bang-bang control has been shown as an optimal guidance solution that minimizes the $\Delta{V}$ required to get into a desired orbit using bank modulation. This work revisits aerocapture using a bank modulation problem to search for an optimal solution using a direct collocation method. Previous studies have shown that aerocapture performance is sensitive to atmospheric density. In the literature, several studies have used a desensitized control approach to make the optimal guidance more robust to uncertainties in the model. To this end, this work aims to develop a desensitized aerocapture guidance robust to uncertainty in atmospheric density. Furthermore, this work compares the robustness of the open-loop desensitized aerocapture guidance with optimal aerocapture guidance with an aerocapture application at Earth.

Desensitized↗
NASA NTRS1972

Design of minimax output feedback controller for system with parameter uncertainty

The problem of controlling a time-invariant system with parameter uncertainty is considered with incomplete state feedback. The controller is designed by minimaximizing a quadratic performance criterion and a sensitivity (or loss) criterion, involving the state of the system, the control, and the uncertainty vector. The resulting optimal controller is linear and optimal feedback gain matrix must satisfy a set of nonlinear algebraic equations. some algorithms for algebraic minimax problems are presented.

Basuthakur, S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Determination of robust stability margin for second-order systems

Robust stabilization of uncertain systems has been extensively investigated and the stability test for the whole set of uncertain parameters has been reduced to a finite number of test points, four points for the characteristic polynomial with independent coefficients. As a result the robust stability margin can be determined using a reasonable amount of computation. It is impossible to apply the results of the test to a practical system as the coefficients of the characteristic polynomial for a physical system are usually functions of uncertain parameters. However, many physical systems may be represented by a second-order mass-spring-damper system with a special multilinear form in its characteristic polynomial. This paper investigates second-order mass-spring-damper systems and the reduction of the number of test points. It is shown that such a system with arbritrary compensators always has a multilinear characteristic polynomial. It is also shown that a line in the two-dimensional parameter space forms the boundary after the mapping of a multilinear characteristic polynomial and this interior extreme line forms a conic curve in the complex plane. The boundary of uncertain domain for a multilinear polynomial with two uncertainty parameters can be determined analytically using this curve, and the four sides image of a square of the uncertain parameter. Therefore, the stability margin may be determined by checking the intersections of the boundary with the zero point. A similar procedure can be used for second-order systems with more than two uncertainty parameters when parameter optimization is used in determining the boundary.

Chuang, C.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization, and design against uncertainty using response surface techniques.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Implementing Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray Model for the Analysis of Space Radiation Exposure

For the analysis of radiation risks to astronauts and planning exploratory space missions, accurate energy spectrum of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) is necessary. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. A model of the Badhwar‐O'Neill 2011 (BO11) GCR environment, which is represented by GCR deceleration potential theta, has been derived by utilizing all of the GCR measurements from balloons, satellites, and the newer NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). In the BO11 model, the solar modulation level is derived from the mean international sunspot numbers with time‐delay, which has been calibrated with actual flight instrument measurements to produce better GCR flux data fit during solar minima. GCR fluxes provided by the BO11 model were compared with various spacecraft measurements at 1 AU, and further comparisons were made for the tissue equivalent proportional counters measurements at low Earth orbits using the high‐charge and energy transport (HZETRN) code and various GCR models. For the comparison of the absorbed dose and dose equivalent calculations with the measurements by Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) at Gale crater on Mars, the intensities and energies of GCR entering the heliosphere were calculated by using the BO11 model, which accounts for time‐dependent attenuation of the local interstellar spectrum of each element. The BO11 model, which has emphasized for the last 24 solar minima, showed in relatively good agreement with the RAD data for the first 200 sols, but it was resulted in to be less well during near the solar maximum of solar cycle 24 due to subtleties in the changing heliospheric conditions. By performing the error analysis of the BO11 model and the optimization in reducing overall uncertainty, the resultant BO13 model corrects the fit at solar maxima as well as being accurate at solar minima. The BO13 model is implemented to the NASA Space Cancer Risk model for the assessment of radiation risks. Overall cumulative probability distribution of solar modulation parameters represents the percentile rank of the average interplanetary GCR environment, and the probabilistic radiation risks can be assessed for various levels of GCR environment to support mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Learn-To-Fly Approach for Adaptively Tuning Flight Control Systems

A method is presented for adaptively tuning feedback control gains in a ight control sys- tem to achieve desired closed-loop performance. The method combines efficient parameter estimation for identifying closed-loop dynamics models, with online nonlinear optimization for sequentially perturbing and updating control gains to improve performance. Prior in- formation on stability and control derivatives is not needed, nor is any knowledge about the control system architecture. Following convergence, the optimized control gains (with uncertainties), the open-loop dynamics model, and the closed-loop dynamics model are available. The method is demonstrated for tuning a longitudinal stability augmentation system using a realistic nonlinear ight dynamics simulation of the NASA FASER airplane. Convergence was attained using five piloted maneuvers that spanned approximately one minute of ight test time. Although demonstrated for a relatively simple case, the method is general and can be applied to other aircraft, axes, performance metrics, and control systems.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Stochastic Scheduler for Integrated Arrival, Departure and Surface Operations in Los Angeles

In terminal airspace, integrating arrivals, departures, and surface operations with competing resources provides the potential of improving operational efficiency by removing barriers between different operations. This work develops a centralized stochastic scheduler for operations in a terminal area including airborne and surface operations using Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations. The scheduler handles completing resources between different flows, such as runway allocations, runway crossing, departure fixes, and other interaction way points between arrivals and departures. Meanwhile, the scheduler also takes time-varied uncertainties into account when optimizing schedules. The scheduler is run sequentially to identify the best and robust schedule for the next planning window. Resulting schedules decide the routes, speed or delays, and runway assignments with separation constraints at mergingdiverging waypoints in the air and crossing and separations on runways. The Los Angels terminal area was used as an example. The implementation of this stochastic scheduler for integrated arrival, departure and surface operations is completed. And several preliminary runs are finished for over 1,200 flights in LAX in a typical day. Sensitivity studies on various planning window sizes are presented, which shows that trade-off exits between planning window size and achievable minimum delay. Preliminary results on runway usage are also presented in this abstract. Because arrivals on the outer runways have to be followed by crossings on the inner runways, algorithmic runway allocation prefers inner runways for arrivals and outer runways for departures. More results will be presented in the final paper. And current terminal arrival and departure procedures based on first-come-first-serve procedure will also be set up and used as a baseline for comparison.

integrated scheduler↗
NASA NTRS2019

Two Decades Observing Smoke Above Clouds in the South-Eastern Atlantic Ocean: Deep Blue Algorithm Updates and Validation with ORACLES Field Campaign Data

This study presents and evaluates an updated algorithmfor quantification of absorbing aerosols above clouds(AACs) from passive satellite measurements. The focus isbiomass burning in the south-eastern Atlantic Ocean duringthe 2016 and 2017 ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLoudsand their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign deployments.The algorithm retrieves the above-cloud aerosoloptical depth (AOD) and underlying liquid cloud opticaldepth and is applied to measurements from the Sea-viewingWide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate ResolutionImaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Visible InfraredImaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) from 1997 to 2017. AirborneNASA Ames Spectrometers for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) and NASA LangleyHigh Spectral Resolution Lidar 2 (HSRL2) data collectedduring ORACLES provide important validation for spectralAOD for MODIS and VIIRS; as the SeaWiFS missionended in 2010, it cannot be evaluated directly. The 4STARand HSRL2 comparisons are complementary and reveal performancegenerally in line with uncertainty estimates providedby the optimal estimation retrieval framework used. Atpresent the two MODIS-based data records seem the mostreliable, although there are differences between the deployments,which may indicate that the available data are not yetsufficient to provide a robust regional validation. Spatiotemporalpatterns in the data sets are similar, and the time seriesare very strongly correlated with each other (correlationcoefficients from 0.95 to 0.99). Offsets between the satellitedata sets are thought to be chiefly due to differences in absolutecalibration between the sensors. The available validationdata for this type of algorithm are limited to a small numberof field campaigns, and it is strongly recommended that suchairborne measurements continue to be made, both over thesouthern Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere.

Sayer, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Learn-to-Fly Approach for Adaptively Tuning Flight Control Systems

A method is presented for adaptively tuning feedback control gains in a flight control system to achieve desired closed-loop performance. The method combines efficient aircraft parameter estimation, for identifying closed-loop dynamics models, with online nonlinear optimization, for sequentially perturbing and updating control gains to improve performance. Access to flight measurements and the control gains is required, but no prior information about the aircraft dynamics or the flight control architecture is needed. After the procedure, the optimized control gains (with uncertainties), the open-loop dynamics model, and the closed-loop dynamics model are available. The method is demonstrated for tuning a longitudinal stability augmentation system using a realistic nonlinear flight dynamics simulation of a subscale airplane. Convergence was attained using five maneuvers that spanned approximately one minute of flight test time. Although shown for a relatively simple case, the method is general and can be applied to other aircraft, axes of motion, performance metrics, and control system designs.

Adaptive tuning↗
NASA NTRS2021

Romie: A Domain-Independent Tool for Computer-Aided Robust Operations Management

Romie is a decision support tool based on AI's latest advances in the domain of robust scheduling. Unlike all its predecessors, the tool allows to (i) visually model the operational problem and context entirely (ii) optimize to find near-optimal schedules while taking uncertainty into account and deals with (iii) a combination of various {key performance indicators (KPIs). It comes with a web user interface. Part or all of the modelled activities may be associated to random variables describing their stochastic durations, in order to produce schedules that are robust w.r.t. temporal uncertainty. Hence, depending on the pursued KPIs, the schedules maximize a combination of the following terms: the probability of satisfying the problem constraints, the expected return/efficiency, the expected outcome quality, and even the operators' wellness by minimizing its expected extra-hours. Initially developed for spatial exploration and demonstration in the context of Mars analog missions, this versatile tool is here applied to operations management in both biotechnology manufacturing and robots parametrization in a cave exploration context.

Chien, Steve A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Toward Comprehensive Uncertainty Predictions for Remote Imaging Spectroscopy

Remote imaging spectroscopy’s role in Earth science will grow in the coming decade as a series of globe-spanning spectroscopy missions launch from NASA, ESA, and other agencies. The nature of remote imaging spectroscopy will change, advancing from short regional studies to address global multi-year questions. The diversity of data will also grow with exposure to a wider range of biomes and atmospheric conditions. To execute these new investigations we must reconcile diverse observing conditions to derive consistent global maps. To this end, rig- orous uncertainty quantification and propagation enables an optimal synthesis of data accounting for observing conditions and data quality. Understanding data uncertainties is also important for principled hypothesis testing, information content assessment, and informed decision making by end users. We survey prior efforts in uncer- tainty quantification for imaging spectroscopy, and describe methods for validating the accuracy of uncertainty predictions. We conclude with a discussion of remaining challenges and promising avenues for future research.

Susiluoto, Jouni↗