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DOE OSTI2020

MEP: Mobility Energy Productivity Metric

In response to the need to assess fundamental improvements in mobility as technology provides new modes, methods, and opportunities in urban areas to connect people with goods, services, and employment, a mobility-energy productivity score (MEPS) has been developed. The MEPS fundamentally measures the potential of a multi-modal system to connect a person to a variety of services and activities that define a high-quality of life. The MEPS is measured relative to the convenience and energy needed to provide connectivity. Fundamentally derived from accessibility theory, the MEPS advances practice by using readily available travel time data (either from web-based APIs or outputs from an urban transportation model) combined with established parameters that reflect the energy intensity of various travel modes, and relative frequency of activity engagement. The construction of the MEPS allows for aggregation and disaggregation to the appropriate spatial, modal, and trip purpose resolution, as analysis needs dictate. The MEPS could be used to compare alternative futures related to technology, infrastructure investment, or policy, providing a much needed tool for planners, researchers, and analysts. In other words, the metric measures how efficiently connected a place is.

Hou, Yi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Micromobility Integrated Transit and Infrastructure for Efficiency (MITIE)

Nearly omnipresent in many cities of all sizes across the United States, micromobility vehicles-e-scooters, manual bicycles, e-bicycles, and larger seated electric scooters-are notably missing from SMART Mobility research. This project aims to expand the spectrum of modes currently being researched within SMART Mobility by exploring micromobility as an important tool toward meeting energy-efficient mobility goals. It expands on findings from SMART Mobility 1.0 that revealed preferences to reduce transportation-related expenses through use of a network of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) and other shared mobility options, and builds on findings from a 2019 Vehicle Technology Analysis Program (VTAP) funded micromobility project conducted by our team. We will explore multiple facets of micromobility, including behavior and decision-making, the integration of micromobility within transportation infrastructure, energy estimates, and operations. Guiding research questions include: 1) what are the potential energy savings from low, medium, and high market penetration of micromobility (in passenger, multimodal, and freight domains)? 2) which scenarios for micromobility use and related enablement of increased public transit use should be modeled/considered in the SMART 2.0 Workflow? 3) to what degree can micromobility supplement/complement transit system operations? 4) what are people's preferences towards micromobility? How do preferences vary across various sociodemographic segments? How can this knowledge inform operations? 5) what are optimal strategies to attain high user adoption and shift users toward more energy-efficient mode choices in terms of micromobility operation? How do these strategies affect energy savings, person-miles traveled, lifecycle energy use, and adoption rates? These questions will be addressed through applied research in five project emphasis areas: 1) energy estimates of micromobility for Workflow scenarios: Expand and refine previous micromobility work to augment the Workflow approaches to modeling urban travel; 2) multimodal connection with transit: Utilizing Mobility-Energy Productivity (MEP) tools to evaluate multimodal travel patterns enabled by micromobility, including assessing how to reduce barriers of inequity of access to mobility options and destinations; 3) mode choice, induced demand, and infrastructure: Understanding the mode shift induced through micromobility to inform energy impact analysis; 4) energy optimization of micromobility operations: Identification of micromobility operations parameters and development of operations scenarios to better understand present-day micromobility operations for integration into the Workflow, in partnership with BEAM and POLARIS modeling teams; 5) micro-freight: Characterize the current state of micro-freight activities, including energy effects and geospatial analyses, to inform Workflow.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2019

2018 Annual Site Environmental Report

Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (the Laboratory’s) annual site environmental reports are prepared annually by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations, as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 3, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The following chapters in this report discuss our success in complying with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and climate conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Monitoring); how we monitor the movement of chemicals and radionuclides by storm water runoff and the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in deposited sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the presence, levels, and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, soil, and vegetation (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radionuclide dose or risk from chemical exposure members of the public may experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment). This report follows plain language guidelines, as required for federal agencies by the Plain Language Act of 2010. More information about plain language can be found at http://www.plainlanguage.gov/index.cfm. You will notice we have substantially reduced the use of acronyms and abbreviations and are using active voice and personal pronouns. We hope you find this report useful. If you have suggestions for improving this report, additional questions, or want a copy of this report, please contact us at envoutreach@lanl.gov, or call the Communications Office at 505-665-7000. This report, its supplemental tables, and the 2018 Annual Site Environmental Report Summary are available at http://www.lanl.gov/environment/environmental-report.php. Note: This document has been revised since it was initially published on September 23, 2019. The revisions included corrections to figure and table references, changes in heading levels, adding blank pages where appropriate, and changes of an editorial nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial EV Charging Infrastructure: Modeling Concepts & Techniques

This presentation offers an overview of key concepts and techniques for modeling global commercial EV charging infrastructure. We begin by comparing the unique needs of commercial vehicles with those of personal vehicles. Next, we delve into network design topics, including phased deployment of public infrastructure, port sharing across and within fleets, power requirements for en-route charging, and strategies for estimating depot charging availability. Finally, we outline the primary steps NREL follows in conducting an EV charging infrastructure needs assessment.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Flow and Particle Deposition in a Spent Nuclear Fuel Assembly

CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) simulation of aerosol-laden natural convective flow and particle deposition in a spent fuel storage canister with 37 assemblies is currently computationally prohibitive. PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) assemblies have up to 289 pins or tubes with several spacer grids to align the pins. Spacer grids with mixing vanes induce swirling during operation to increase heat transfer. Each spacer grid contains hundreds of small structures such as retaining clips, channel walls, and openings. The largest canisters store 37 PWR assemblies thus, there are numerous pins, tubes, and spacer grids for which the flow region between and around these structures needs to be determined along with the movement and deposition of aerosol particles. Because of the complicated geometry, modeling the intricate flow even for just one assembly is currently impractical. Nonetheless, we are developing techniques for a practical model to assess the natural aerosol particle deposition process in a canister in the event that a release occurs from one or more fuel pins. In the previous work it was demonstrated that CFD can model the flow through a PWR spacer grid with mixing vanes, including particle deposition, in a reasonable amount of time on a personal computer. In this work, the analysis is extended to include the bypass region between an assembly and the canister basket walls. It is shown that the flow velocity in the bypass region is about three times that of the interstitial region between the pins. The lengths before and after the spacer grid are also extended to determine when the flow becomes fully developed. In addition, the approach of computationally “stitching together” segments of an assembly is demonstrated with the plan to ultimately model a full assembly. The fraction of particles that are deposited in a segment with a spacer grid is determined as a function of particle size and flow velocity.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Shared Understanding and Paths Forward for Community Benefit Mechanisms: Workshop Summary Report

On October 7-8, 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory hosted an in-person workshop focused on research needs and strategies for community benefit mechanisms (CBMs) used in the deployment of renewable energy infrastructure. Community benefit mechanisms (such as community benefit agreements, funds, and donations) are used to provide increased benefits and/or mitigate negative impacts of energy development for the communities that are impacted. The workshop aimed to assess the current state of knowledge, tools, practices, and lessons learned, as well as to identify research and other work needed to improve the impact and effective implementation of CBMs. This report describes the purpose and structure of the workshop and summarizes key themes, questions, issues, and ideas that arose from the workshop.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Activity Time-Use Patterns and Experienced Satisfaction: Travel Behavioral Dynamics from the 2010–2013 American Time-Use Survey Data

Central to the theory of activity-based approaches is the role of time-use and its impacts on various decision processes related to individual activity-travel patterns, thereby determining ones’ daily well-being. This research aims at quantifying and investigating the underlying correlation of time-use and happiness using the repeated cross-section data from the 2010-2013 American Time Use Survey Well-Being module. The survey specifically records reported levels of activity satisfaction as measured through – happiness, meaningfulness, tiredness, sadness and stress experienced from activity participation. Using these scores, we first construct a composite degree of activity satisfaction that a person experiences using latent class cluster analysis. A series of regression models are then estimated to jointly analyze episodic duration and satisfaction separately for each of years from 2010-2013, by controlling for socioeconomics, household lifecycle stages (29-groups based on age, gender, marital status and presence of children), activity characteristics and global life and health assessment measures. Overall, model estimation results reveal a strong negative correlation between episodic duration and happiness from individual activity engagement patterns. This correlation pattern is temporally stable for the years 2010-2013, with minor variations. Results also suggest that household lifecycle stage has a major impact on activity time-use and satisfaction behavior. Further, single parent and younger couples (25 years to 45 years) with children are more likely to engage in longer and less happy episodes due to family commitments. The model findings also show a strong correlation between health conditions and activity happiness.

Ravulaparthy, Srinath↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent evolution of risk analyses in atomic bomb survivor studies: new methods and applications

Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2023

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗
DOE OSTI2022

Salt International Collaborations (FY22 Update)

This report summarizes the international collaborations conducted by Sandia funded by the US Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) as part of the Sandia National Laboratories Salt R&D and Salt International work packages. This report satisfies the level-three milestone M3SF-22SN010303063. Several stand-alone sections make up this summary report, each completed by the participants. The sections discuss international collaborations on geomechanical benchmarking exercises (WEIMOS), granular salt reconsolidation (KOMPASS), engineered barriers (RANGERS), numerical model comparison (DECOVALEX) and an NEA Salt Club working group on the development of scenarios as part of the performance assessment development process. Finally, we summarize events related to the US/German Workshop on Repository Research, Design and Operations. The work summarized in this annual update has occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, and little international or domestic travel has occurred. Most of the collaborations have been conducted via email or as virtual meetings, but a slow return to travel and in-person meetings has begun.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A prospective study on myocardial injury after BNT162b2 mRNA COVID ‐19 fourth dose vaccination in healthy persons

Aims To prospectively evaluate the incidence of myocardial injury after the administration of the fourth dose BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer‐BioNTech) against COVID‐19. Methods and results Health care workers who received the BNT162b2 vaccine during the fourth dose campaign had blood samples collected for high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs‐cTn) during vaccine administration and 2–4 days afterward. Vaccine‐related myocardial injury was defined as hs‐cTn elevation above the 99th percentile upper reference limit and >50% increase from baseline measurement. Participants with evidence of myocardial injury underwent assessment for possible myocarditis. Of 324 participants, 192 (59.2%) were female and the mean age was 51.8 ± 15.0 years. Twenty‐one (6.5%) participants had prior COVID‐19 infection, the mean number of prior vaccine doses was 2.9 ± 0.4, and the median time from the last dose was 147 (142–157) days. Reported vaccine‐related adverse reactions included local pain at injection site in 57 (17.59%), fatigue in 39 (12.04%), myalgia in 32 (9.88%), sore throat in 21 (6.48%), headache in 18 (5.5%), fever ≥38°C in 16 (4.94%), chest pain in 12 (3.7%), palpitations in 7 (2.16%), and shortness of breath in one (0.3%) participant. Vaccine‐related myocardial injury was demonstrated in two (0.62%) participants, one had mild symptoms and one was asymptomatic; both had a normal electrocardiogram and echocardiography. Conclusion In a prospective investigation, an increase in serum troponin levels was documented among 0.62% of healthy health care workers receiving the fourth dose BNT162b2 vaccine. The two cases had mild or no symptoms and no clinical sequela. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05308680.

Levi, Nir↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modern Senicide in the Face of a Pandemic: An Examination of Public Discourse and Sentiment About Older Adults and COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

Objectives This study examined public discourse and sentiment regarding older adults and COVID-19 on social media and assessed the extent of ageism in public discourse. Methods Twitter data (N = 82,893) related to both older adults and COVID-19 and dated from January 23 to May 20, 2020, were analyzed. We used a combination of data science methods (including supervised machine learning, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis), qualitative thematic analysis, and conventional statistics. Results The most common category in the coded tweets was “personal opinions” (66.2%), followed by “informative” (24.7%), “jokes/ridicule” (4.8%), and “personal experiences” (4.3%). The daily average of ageist content was 18%, with the highest of 52.8% on March 11, 2020. Specifically, more than 1 in 10 (11.5%) tweets implied that the life of older adults is less valuable or downplayed the pandemic because it mostly harms older adults. A small proportion (4.6%) explicitly supported the idea of just isolating older adults. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) within “jokes/ridicule” targeted older adults, half of which were “death jokes.” Also, 14 themes were extracted, such as perceptions of lockdown and risk. A bivariate Granger causality test suggested that informative tweets regarding at-risk populations increased the prevalence of tweets that downplayed the pandemic. Discussion Ageist content in the context of COVID-19 was prevalent on Twitter. Information about COVID-19 on Twitter influenced public perceptions of risk and acceptable ways of controlling the pandemic. Finaly, public education on the risk of severe illness is needed to correct misperceptions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic inference in very large universes

Our current favored cosmological theories allow for the striking and controversial possibility that the observable universe is just a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters that describe the effective, low-energy laws of physics vary from one region to another. The controversy is largely driven by the fact that such a “very large universe” is mostly observationally inaccessible to us, so the issue arises of how we can reasonably assess a theory that describes such a universe. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method for theory assessment based on theory-generated probability distributions for our observations. We focus on the principles that define this method, leaving aside concerns about how, in practice, one would carry out the required calculations. (One important issue that we set aside is the measure problem.) We argue that cosmological theories can be tested by the standard method of Bayesian updating, but we need to use theoretical predictions for “first-person” probabilities—that is, probabilities that we should use for our observations, taking into account all relevant selection effects. These selection effects can vary from one observer to another and can vary with time, so, in principle, first-person probabilities are defined for each observer instant—an observer at a specific instant of time. Calculations of first-person probabilities should take into account everything that the observer believes about herself and her surroundings, which we refer to as her subjective state. If the universe is very large, a theory might predict that there are many observer instants in the same subjective state; we argue that first-person probabilities should be calculated using a principle of self-locating indifference (PSLI), the assumption that any real observer should make predictions for her future as if she were chosen randomly and uniformly from the theoretically predicted observer instants that share her subjective state. We believe the PSLI is intuitively very reasonable, but we also argue that, if the theory is correct, the use of this principle maximizes the expected fraction of observers who will make correct predictions. A further complication is that cosmological theories are not expected to fully predict the detailed properties of the universe, but rather will predict a set of possible universes, each with a probability. Different possible universes will generically have different numbers of observers. We argue that, in the calculation of first-person probabilities, the probability for each possible universe should be weighted by the number of observer instants in the specified subjective state that it contains. These issues have been controversial in the literature, so we also provide a rebuttal to the claim that principles like the PSLI involve a “selection fallacy”; a rebuttal to what we dub the principle of required certainty; an argument rejecting theories that predict a preponderance of Boltzmann brains; a rebuttal to a parable about humans and Jovians used by Hartle and Srednicki to argue that assumptions of typicality can lead to absurd consequences; and, finally, a discussion about how the use of “old evidence” can be fit into a Bayesian mold.

Azhar, Feraz [University of Notre Dame, IN (United↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated Mobility Platforms: A Framework for Versatile, Energy-Efficient Urban Transportation for the 21st Century: Preprint

This paper presents automated mobility platforms (AMPs) as a framework to deliver high-quality urban mobility. AMPs leverage advances in sensing technology developed from automated roadway vehicles to provide opportunities for efficient movement of people and goods in dense urban environments, campuses, and large facilities like airports. In this paper, we layout the concept of AMPs and how they can serve the mobility needs of the population by providing service at the intersection of micromobility (services such as electric scooters or bikes), personal rapid transit, and moving walkways. Several key attributes and justification for the AMPs concept are described, including improvements to accessibility (inherent in design) covering both socioeconomic and disability equity, safety, energy efficiency, cost-effectiveness, urban land and space management, and scalability. We summarize the results from an ongoing national laboratory-sponsored, faculty-supported, student-led investigation into AMPs that includes stakeholder engagement and technical feasibility assessment.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a -11% to +40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from -45 to -2 kcal person -1 day -1 , leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Energy Resource Visual Emulator: Phase 1

To help federal energy managers assess, monitor, and manage cybersecurity while achieving decarbonization, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Framework (DER-CF) offers a comprehensive, web-based assessment tool focusing on cyber governance or policies, technical management, and physical security. The DER-CF currently presents users with a series of pertinent cybersecurity questions, which are used to generate a site-specific report and recommendations. This paper outlines a technical approach to integrate the DER-CF with another key asset—NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) Cyber Range—to visualize cybersecurity resilience and compliance and to enhance the usability and accessibility of the DER-CF. The result is a new tool called the Distributed Energy Resource Visual Emulator (DER-VE). Its development will include regular conversations with stakeholders to assess the effectiveness of these efforts, refine the visualization capability, and ensure its value to our partners. Phase 0 of the integration project was concluded in 2021. Phase 1, completed in 2022, has two components: The first is developing a working visualization of system compliance using the DER-CF, and the second is planning the design of a server application that takes input data from the DER-CF and creates a personal emulated environment of the user's system or a selected reference architect. Major components that were addressed in this phase are the DER-CF output, compliance visualization, data model, and compliance server design.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗