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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

The spatial distribution of coronae on Venus

Coronae on Venus are large, generally circular surface features that have distinctive tectonic, volcanic, and topographic expressions. They range in diameter from less than 200 km to at least 1000 km. Data from the Magellan spacecraft have now allowed complete global mapping of the spatial distribution of coronae on the planet. Unlike impact craters, which show a random (i.e., Poisson) spatial distribution, the distribution of coronae appears to be nonrandom. We investigate the distribution here in detail, and explore its implications in terms of mantle convection and surface modification processes.

Squyres, S. W.↗

Flight inspection data and crack initiation times

Lockheed C-130 service-flight inspection data is reduced by means of fracture mechanics and statistical analysis into a form from which the probability of time to crack initiation and the distribution of initial flaw sizes for various locations on the aircraft can be determined. Crack sizes are normalized by extrapolating a growing crack backwards from its first recorded size to .03 inches (crack initiation size) yielding the time to crack initiation. In a similar fashion, the crack is grown backwards to a time equal to zero to yield an initial flaw size. In order to perform the discussed computations, crack growth constants were computed for each individual location and were analyzed statistically. Statistical distributions were fitted to times to crack initiation and to initial flaw sizes in order to describe their expected behavior. Weibull and Johnson distributions have been found to fit the data reasonably well but for a better fit convolution integrals of Poisson load distributions and Weibull strength distributions are needed.

Johnson, W. S.↗

Analysis of field size distributions, LACIE test sites 5029, 5033, and 5039, Anhwei Province, People's Republic of China

A study was made of the field size distributions for LACIE test sites 5029, 5033, and 5039, People's Republic of China. Field lengths and widths were measured from LANDSAT imagery, and field area was statistically modeled. Field size parameters have log-normal or Poisson frequency distributions. These were normalized to the Gaussian distribution and theoretical population curves were made. When compared to fields in other areas of the same country measured in the previous study, field lengths and widths in the three LACIE test sites were 2 to 3 times smaller and areas were smaller by an order of magnitude.

Podwysocki, M. H.↗

An investigation of error correcting techniques for OMV and AXAF

The original objectives of this project were to build a test system for the NASA 255/223 Reed/Solomon encoding/decoding chip set and circuit board. This test system was then to be interfaced with a convolutional system at MSFC to examine the performance of the concantinated codes. After considerable work, it was discovered that the convolutional system could not function as needed. This report documents the design, construction, and testing of the test apparatus for the R/S chip set. The approach taken was to verify the error correcting behavior of the chip set by injecting known error patterns onto data and observing the results. Error sequences were generated using pseudo-random number generator programs, with Poisson time distribution between errors and Gaussian burst lengths. Sample means, variances, and number of un-correctable errors were calculated for each data set before testing.

Ingels, Frank↗

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Ultrasonic wave velocity measurement in small polymeric and cortical bone specimens

A system was refined for the determination of the bulk ultrasonic wave propagation velocity in small cortical bone specimens. Longitudinal and shear wave propagations were measured using ceramic, piezoelectric 20 and 5 MHz transducers, respectively. Results of the pulse transmission technique were refined via the measurement of the system delay time. The precision and accuracy of the system were quantified using small specimens of polyoxymethylene, polystyrene-butadiene, and high-density polyethylene. These polymeric materials had known acoustic properties, similarity of propagation velocities to cortical bone, and minimal sample inhomogeneity. Dependence of longitudinal and transverse specimen dimensions upon propagation times was quantified. To confirm the consistency of longitudinal wave propagation in small cortical bone specimens (< 1.0 mm), cut-down specimens were prepared from a normal rat femur. Finally, cortical samples were prepared from each of ten normal rat femora, and Young's moduli (Eii), shear moduli (Gij), and Poisson ratios (Vij) were measured. For all specimens (bone, polyoxymethylene, polystyrene-butadiene, and high-density polyethylene), strong linear correlations (R2 > 0.997) were maintained between propagation time and distance throughout the size ranges down to less than 0.4 mm. Results for polyoxymethylene, polystyrene-butadiene, and high-density polyethylene were accurate to within 5 percent of reported literature values. Measurement repeatability (precision) improved with an increase in the wave transmission distance (propagating dimension). No statistically significant effect due to the transverse dimension was detected.

Non-NASA Center↗

Network Theory: A Primer and Questions for Air Transportation Systems Applications

A new understanding (with potential applications to air transportation systems) has emerged in the past five years in the scientific field of networks. This development emerges in large part because we now have a new laboratory for developing theories about complex networks: The Internet. The premise of this new understanding is that most complex networks of interest, both of nature and of human contrivance, exhibit a fundamentally different behavior than thought for over two hundred years under classical graph theory. Classical theory held that networks exhibited random behavior, characterized by normal, (e.g., Gaussian or Poisson) degree distributions of the connectivity between nodes by links. The new understanding turns this idea on its head: networks of interest exhibit scale-free (or small world) degree distributions of connectivity, characterized by power law distributions. The implications of scale-free behavior for air transportation systems include the potential that some behaviors of complex system architectures might be analyzed through relatively simple approximations of local elements of the system. For air transportation applications, this presentation proposes a framework for constructing topologies (architectures) that represent the relationships between mobility, flight operations, aircraft requirements, and airspace capacity, and the related externalities in airspace procedures and architectures. The proposed architectures or topologies may serve as a framework for posing comparative and combinative analyses of performance, cost, security, environmental, and related metrics.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

Applying Flammability Limit Probabilities and the Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure Concept to NASA STD-6001 Test 1

Repeated Test 1 extinction tests near the upward flammability limit are expected to follow a Poisson process trend. This Poisson process trend suggests that rather than define a ULOI and MOC (which requires two limits to be determined), it might be better to define a single upward limit as being where 1/e (where e (approx. equal to 2.7183) is the characteristic time of the normalized Poisson process) of the materials burn, or, rounding, where approximately 1/3 of the samples fail the test (and burn). Recognizing that spacecraft atmospheres will not bound the entire oxygen-pressure parameter space, but actually lie along the normoxic atmosphere control band, we can focus the materials flammability testing along this normoxic band. A Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure (NULP) is defined that determines the minimum safe total pressure for a material within the constant partial pressure control band. Then, increasing this pressure limit by a factor of safety, we can define the material as being safe to use at the NULP + SF (where SF is on the order of 10 kilopascal, based on existing flammability data). It is recommended that the thickest material to be tested with the current Test 1 igniter should be 3 mm thick (1/8 inches) to avoid the problem of differentiating between an ignition limit and a true flammability limit.

flammability↗

Preliminary Analysis of Two Years of the Massive Collision Monitoring Activity

It is hypothesized that the interactions between many of the most massive derelicts in low Earth orbit are more frequent than modeled by the traditional combination of kinetic theory of gases and Poisson probability distribution function. This is suggested by the fact that there are clusters of derelicts where members' inclinations are nearly identical and their apogees/perigees overlap significantly resulting in periodic synchronization of the objects' orbits. In order to address this proposition, an experiment was designed and conducted over the last two years. Results from this monitoring and characterization experiment are presented with implications for proposed debris remediation strategies. Four separate clusters of massive derelicts were examined that are centered around 775km, 850km, 975km, and 1500km, respectively. In aggregate, the constituents of these clusters contain around 500 objects and about 800,000kg of mass; this equates to a third of all derelict mass in LEO. Preliminary analysis indicates that encounter rates over this time period for these objects are greater than is estimated by traditional techniques. Hypothesized dependencies between latitude of encounter, relative velocity, frequency of encounters, inclination, and differential semi-major axis were established and verified. This experiment also identified specific repeatable cluster dynamics that may reduce the cost/risk and enhance the effectiveness of debris remediation activities and also enable new operational debris remediation options.

McKnight, Darren↗

Endogenic cratering distribution on the moon.

Medium-resolution Lunar Orbiter V photographs are used for counting and measuring endogenic craters in the Hyginus Rille floor. A Poisson-type crater distribution consisting of the smaller craters, and a Gaussian-type endogenic size-frequency distribution are established on a diameter vs frequency diagram of the craters.

Grudewicz, E. B.↗

Extensions to the classical calculation of the effect of mutual shadowing in diffuse reflection

The classical method for accounting for the mutual shadowing among closely packed particles in multiple scattering calculations is extended in the following ways. (1) By modeling the particle distribution by a Poisson process with a varying density parameter, a 'Van der Waals' type approximation allows extension to a greater fractional volume density, D. In this case it is only required that D squared be much less than 1 instead of D being much less than 1. (2) In the case that the particle distribution is not uniform the classical calculation may be weighted by the pair correlation function of the distribution. (3) The use of the Markov chain formalism for radiative transfer allows inclusion of the effect of shadowing for two orders of scattering. For conditions such as might apply in Saturn's rings, the inclusion of this effect makes less than a 0.1% difference in the calculated phase curves, compared to previous calculations which have included shadowing only in the first scattering. The latter are thus shown to be quite accurate.

Esposito, L. W.↗

On the Determination of Poisson Statistics for Haystack Radar Observations of Orbital Debris

A convenient and powerful method is used to determine if radar detections of orbital debris are observed according to Poisson statistics. This is done by analyzing the time interval between detection events. For Poisson statistics, the probability distribution of the time interval between events is shown to be an exponential distribution. This distribution is a special case of the Erlang distribution that is used in estimating traffic loads on telecommunication networks. Poisson statistics form the basis of many orbital debris models but the statistical basis of these models has not been clearly demonstrated empirically until now. Interestingly, during the fiscal year 2003 observations with the Haystack radar in a fixed staring mode, there are no statistically significant deviations observed from that expected with Poisson statistics, either independent or dependent of altitude or inclination. One would potentially expect some significant clustering of events in time as a result of satellite breakups, but the presence of Poisson statistics indicates that such debris disperse rapidly with respect to Haystack's very narrow radar beam. An exception to Poisson statistics is observed in the months following the intentional breakup of the Fengyun satellite in January 2007.

Stokely, Christopher L.↗