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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States Appendix: Reference and High Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios for Three Regions [Slides]

This slide deck is an appendix to a paper series that examines potential challenges related to planning future power systems with higher solar photovoltaic (PV) penetrations. The series uses the western U.S. power system for these investigations because it is a region the authors and their colleagues have already extensively studied. We are therefore well-suited to analyze even higher PV penetrations and then examine the results in multiple models to determine whether our current approaches are missing key details that only emerge at higher PV penetrations. This deck details the systems underlying those analyses and how they were modeled using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), a capacity expansion modeling tool. We examine both Western Interconnection-wide and regional results for three regions in the Western U.S. with significantly different existing power systems and connections to neighboring regions; this provides a more balanced picture as to how power systems with high PV penetration might emerge in different contexts and what the resulting grid challenges, if any, might be.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Field Performance of South-Facing and East-West Facing Bifacial Modules in the Arctic

This paper presents the first systematic comparison between south-facing monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules, as well as between south-facing bifacial and vertical east-west facing bifacial PV modules in Alaska. The state’s solar industry, driven by the high price of energy and dropping equipment costs, is quickly growing. The challenges posed by extreme sun angles in Alaska’s northern regions also present opportunities for unique system designs. Annual bifacial gains of 21% were observed between side by side south-facing monofacial and bifacial modules. Vertical east-west bifacial modules had virtually the same annual production as south-facing latitude tilt bifacial modules, but with different energy production profiles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Value of Worker Training: A System Reliability & LCOE Perspective

This workshop presentation briefly describes the labor standards required for large photovoltaic (PV) systems (>1MWac) to receive the full investment tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act. The potential for labor standards to affect aspects other than upfront installation costs (such as energy generation or maintenance expenses) is analyzed using levelized cost of energy (LCOE) calculations. This considers benefits which may come from better training for workers, more productive workers, or improved installation quality, using NREL's simplified PV-specific LCOE calculator at pvlcoe.nrel.gov.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

PV Reference Cells for Outdoor Use: Stability Over Four Years of Deployment

Photovoltaic (PV) reference cells are frequently used to evaluate the performance of PV power plants. They provide a measure of irradiance that strongly correlates with the electrical output of PV modules, which makes them very useful for detecting short-term anomalies or long-term degradation in PV power plant output. One very important quality is long-term stability. This report presents observations about the stability of a set of 22 commercial reference cells that have been in continuous operation for a period of four years at the Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) site at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The 22 reference cells at the SRRL represent 10 different models from 6 manufacturers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

PV backsheets survey protocol: A framework for geo-spatial field surveys for bulk material characterization and reliability analysis applied across 41 PV systems

As widespread adoption of photovoltaic (PV) technologies continues, understanding the lifetime of modules is paramount to the viability of the industry as an environmentally conscious alternative to traditional energy generation. Although power degradation can affect the total energy production of a module over its lifetime, module safety failures necessitate the removal of a module leading to a loss of not only the particular asset, but the earning potential of the device. Therefore, it is critical to ensure that the components that provide essential safety functions for PV module operate for their entire rated lifetime. PV backsheets provide necessary electrical insulation to the completed device and failure of this component is cause for a immediate removal of the module. Degradation of the PV module backsheet has led to module safety failures in large-scale installations, costing millions of dollars in damages and lost potential revenue. The spatio-temporal degradation of fielded PV modules is important to study in order to identify which modules within installations are experiencing the greatest exposure conditions and in turn have the highest chance of failure. This paper describes a comprehensive field survey protocol developed for monitoring PV module backsheet performance using solely non-destructive methods in commercial PV fields. The protocol establishes a field naming convention, sampling method, data handling requirements, and measurement procedures. By ensuring consistent data collection practices, the field survey protocol enables research groups to obtain data of uniform quality on backsheet performance over multiple years and locations. In this study, the developed protocol was implemented at forty-one PV sites. Eight different types of airside layer backsheet materials including poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF), acrylic PVDF, poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-hexafluoropropylene-co-vinylidene fluoride) (THV), poly(vinyl fluoride) (PVF), poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET), fluoroethylene vinyl ether (FEVE), polyethylene naphthalate (PEN), and glass were identified using attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. The field survey results show that the spatial distribution of degradation indicators are non-uniform within a particular module, individual site, and across site locations. The degradation of PV modules increased in severity for modules mounted at the edge of rows (across a field) and near the junction box (within a module). This study demonstrates the sensitivity of material performance to exposure length across different materials and climates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Stochastic Unit Commitment to Enable Advanced Flexibility Measures for High Shares of Solar PV

As the share of solar photovoltaics (PV) in the power system increases, there is a growing need for flexibility from multiple, possibly interdependent sources to adjust to PV's variability, uncertainty, and diurnal dependence. This paper investigates how stochastic unit commitment leveraging probabilistic solar forecasts can support other flexibility measures under high solar shares. We consider two flexibility measures relevant to day-ahead scheduling: battery energy time-shifting and solar ancillary service provision. Unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations are conducted on a realistic test system based on Texas using day-ahead solar trajectories. The benefits of the two flexibility measures are pronounced when the instantaneous solar share is high, offering cost savings of 10%-20% in the spring. For a Texas-sized system, this translates to hundreds of millions of dollars in cost savings once the installed PV capacity enables instantaneous solar shares regularly exceeding 40%. Using probabilistic forecasts also greatly increases the reliability of upward reserve provision from solar PV, reducing unserved reserves by 50%-100%. Both day-ahead forecast resolution and errors can impact system reliability at high solar shares, but the stochastic formulation has significant value, mitigating reliability impacts on over-forecast days.

ancillary services↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rear-Side Irradiance Simulation of Field PV Modules

Assessing the durability of photovoltaic (PV) module backsheet is critical to increasing module lifetime. Historically, laboratory-based accelerated testing has insufficient in predicting large-scale failures of commercial polymeric materials. Additionally, there is growing concern that standard condition tests do not reflect non-uniformities in field exposure, and that certain modules experience more severe degradation due to their location. Anisotropy in field exposures is installation-dependent and reflects different levels of exposure to irradiance due to mounting geometry, ground surface albedo, and climatic zone. "Bificial_Radiance" [1], simulates the amount of reflected irradiance on the Polyethylene Naphthalate (PEN) backsheet of a PV array located in Maryland. In our work, site specific weather data are gathered for the entire length of exposure for the modules. The total full-spectrum dose for the incident irradiance on the backsheet was then determined. The simulation results are integrated with historical field survey data to better understand real orld outdoor degradation.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2020

Agent-Based Coordination Scheme for PV Integration (ABC4PV)

Renewables and especially photovoltaics (PV) have benefitted significantly from a host of incentives and policies targeted toward enhanced integration and adoption of specific energy technologies. However, with the push to move forward into a subsidy-free market framework, behind-the-meter residential PV applications have generally struggled to retain their value (unlike utility scale and commercial projects) [1]. This project focused on developing control-theoretic solutions aimed at improving the integration and interaction of behind-the-meter residential PV with other distribution system assets (controllable and non-controllable) to enhance the integrated value of residential PV. To this end, a suite of decentralized control methodologies have been developed to enable effective coordination and control of behind-the-meter residential load customers’ PV, battery storage systems (BSS), controllable loads and other similar assets within a distribution feeder. This interaction aims at procuring energy savings and, thus, energy bill savings. The main source of savings is drawn from reducing the effect of demand charge pricing and is realized at the feeder level, assuming community level interaction and management among the aforementioned assets. Optimal control of the assets is implemented with a distributed optimization methodology, leveraging consensus-based algorithms. The results gathered from the optimal control simulations demonstrates that the savings can be duly achieved and the algorithm decision times (to dynamically control asset set points, for example) are fast. As for the overall efficiency of PV+BSS systems, to procure energy savings from curtailment of the demand charge pricing effects, the optimal control is set up so as to minimize the variance of the load for all customers, throughout a feeder and throughout time in a rolling horizon scheduling with model predictive control. The control takes into account inter-temporal electrochemical storage (battery) degradation costs: specifically, we have developed a long-term lifetime model for the BSS that weighs in the effect of the degradation factor in the dispatch formulations, thus, a considerable operating cost that affects energy decision making. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE – redefined for the purpose of quantifying asset integration effectiveness through the customers’ energy cost) is shown to be below the threshold set for the combined PV+BSS topology of $ 0.14/kWh for multiple cases of PV penetration all the way up to 50%, provided that a policy of shared ownership of and savings is in place. Further, the LCOE calculated for the case before the deployment PV+BSS systems is also achievable, i.e. the deployment of PV+BSS, if planned and scheduled optimally. will have no effect on customers’ energy costs. From the control methodology viewpoint, the developed consensus-based algorithms are shown to converge for a wide range of problem cases (spanning normal operating scenarios and contingencies), guaranteeing dispatch solutions under forecasting errors, communication break-downs and cyber-security attacks. The proposed control solutions are scalable and real-time implementable, with dispatch computations and device set-point updates converging in less than 2s in most practical instances of the above events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-Based Analysis of Feeder Operation with Different PV Smart Inverter Functions on an Actual Distribution System: Preprint

High penetration of photovoltaics (PV) in distribution feeders can cause problems, such as overvoltage, reverse power flow, and large net load changes. Traditional voltage regulation devices, such as capacitors and voltage regulators, can solve some of these problems but might have some delays. Today, smart inverters are gradually being used to provide voltage regulation and frequency support in distribution systems. Different smart inverter settings have been recommended in various rules and standards; however, the potential benefits and their impacts on distribution system operation are not well compared and studied. This paper presents a comparison of different smart inverter settings as applied to a distribution system. An actual feeder model from San Diego Gas & Electric Company is used to conduct the simulation. Additionally, a load disaggregation method is proposed to disaggregate the load and PV profile for each load location using advanced metering infrastructure net load measurements. Then, different smart inverter settings are applied to the PV systems in the feeder, and the simulation results are compared. The results show that the implementation of specific functions of smart inverters can reduce voltage exceedances, and the utility can determine the specific inverter setting based on its operational requirements.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bifacial PV Module Energy Modeling Validation Study

The cost delta between monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules was decreasing in 2018 when this study was initially proposed, making bifacial modules an attractive offering. However, there were limited field studies available that could be considered utility-scale representative, and PV module manufacturers were stating large ranges for the expected energy yield improvements of bifacial technology. This generated uncertainties regarding bifacial performance gains and the actual LCOE (levelized cost of energy). There was also relatively low confidence in the industry’s energy modeling tools’ ability to accurately predict bifacial energy yield, meaning that early adopters of bifacial modules were not able to fully account for the increased energy yield in their energy and financial models. The intent of this project was to provide the solar industry with greater certainty on the energy yield gains of bifacial modules and provide higher confidence in the ability for different energy modeling software to model bifacial PV site performance. Achieving this would allow for bifacial technology to become bankable (i.e. accepted by Independent Engineers, site financiers and other PV site stakeholders), offering a step change in PV site performance that had not been seen since the widespread adoption of the single-axis tracker. Over the course of this study other economic factors including a significant tariff exemption for bifacial modules resulted in accelerated adoption of bifacial technology throughout the US utility scale solar segment. The number of early adopters increased rapidly, and with many investors accepting this module choice the question of bifacial bankability was seemingly answered faster than expected. However, PVEL’s study has still achieved significant accomplishments in demonstrating the accuracy of bifacial modeling across three different software platforms. The results of this study have shown that the mean biased error (MBE) between the field data and the predicted values from all three software platforms were aligned with a maximum MBE of 1.3% and a minimum MBE of -1.8%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metal Oxide Varistor (MOV) Lifetime Estimation with Impulse-Based Testing in PV Inverter Systems: Preprint

Surges caused by lightning strikes could damage electrical components in photovoltaic (PV) systems. Metal oxide varistors (MOVs) are commonly used to protect PV systems from lightning strikes. In this paper, a holistic impulse-based MOV lifetime estimation framework is proposed. The impacts of peak current and fault duration induced by lightning events are considered in the MOV lifetime estimation framework. Moreover, the impact of different parameter combinations on MOV lifetime estimation is analyzed. The effectiveness of the proposed work is validated in a PV inverter test system developed in MATLAB/Simulink.

lifetime estimation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of PV Variability as a Function of PV Generation and Plant Size: Preprint

The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems continues to show significant expansion; however, this growth has brought added attention to issues around the variability of the solar resource. Both spatial and temporal variability exist. Temporal scales can range from the sub-second to multiyear, whereas spatial scales can range from a few meters to tens of kilometers. There are multiple methods described in the literature to quantify PV variability at various spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on short-term temporal variability and uses similar approaches with the addition of PV plant size a parameter to quantify variability. The method employed here incorporates the normalization of clear- and cloudy-sky conditions and PV plant size to quantify nominal variability metrics. The distribution and fluctuations of these metrics provide relevant information that is useful for system operations. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to simulate PV variability as a function of PV generation and plant size. Hypothetical but realistic system information at 33 locations is used to model PV generation by feeding NSRDB solar irradiance data to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM). Over the selected region, it is found that the aggregated ramp rates for the 1-minute data are associated with standard deviations ranging from 0.002–0.055 on a daily basis; however, hourly intervals induce higher aggregated ramp rates than the other timescales. Even though minute-to-minute variations are significant for the 1-minute timescale, the standard deviation aggregated into a daily metric is smaller because of the cancellation of values.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rooftop Solar PV Quality and Safety in Developing Countries - Key Issues and Potential Solutions

To scale solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in developing countries, the technology must be safe and reliable, meeting both customer and utility expectations. However, challenges exist in achieving these goals. Because PV systems are novel and complex, the majority of consumers are unable to distinguish between low- and high-quality systems; many may invest based on price alone. Suboptimal PV system performance and safety incidents can have downstream impacts on the solar industry and customer adoption because of unmet expectations and negative publicity. Rooftop solar system components vary in quality, and inadequate training could lead to poor installation practices. And even if inspection checklists, certification procedures, and standards are available, they may not be widely used in countries if they are not mandatory, the workforce is not aware of them, or installers lack the technical capacity to comply. Despite the numerous solar quality and safety challenges developing countries may face, lessons learned and best practices from around the world can address them.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗