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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
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DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Inverter Failure Mechanism Estimation Using Unsupervised Machine Learning and Reliability Assessment

This article introduces a data-driven approach to assessing failure mechanisms and reliability degradation in outdoor photovoltaic (PV) string inverters. The manufacturer's stated PV inverter lifetime can vary due to the impact of operating site conditions. To address limitations in degradation estimation through accelerated testing, condition monitoring, or degradation modeling, we propose a machine learning (ML) oriented approach. Utilizing data from a 1.4 MW PV power plant operational since 2016, with 46 string PV inverters tied to the grid, we employ the unsupervised one-class support vector machine ML technique to analyze inverter and sensor data, capable of classifying humidity cycling and temperature fluctuations as dominant failure mechanisms. Utilizing the anomaly alert relationship and alert details specific to the inverter, the level of PV inverter output is considered as its availability or available reliability. Subsequently, a continuous Markov model is applied to six-month alert data, revealing an average stated reliability of 20% after 20 years of continuous operation. These results support recommendations for time-bound preventive measures to enhance PV inverter reliability under diverse outdoor conditions. Furthermore, the approach provides a nondestructive, top–down, and generalized method for analyzing any commercial PV inverter exposed to outdoor conditions, contingent on the availability of relevant data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Security Vulnerability and Mitigation in Photovoltaic Systems

Software and firmware vulnerabilities pose security threats to photovoltaic (PV) systems. When patches are not available or cannot be timely applied to fix vulnerabilities, it is important to mitigate vulnerabilities such that they cannot be exploited by attackers or their impacts will be limited when exploited. However, the vulnerability mitigation problem for PV systems has received little attention. This paper analyzes known security vulnerabilities in PV systems, proposes a multi-level mitigation framework and various mitigation strategies including neural network-based attack detection inside inverters, and develops a prototype system as a proof-of-concept for building vulnerability mitigation into PV system design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

bayesian structural time series↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Roles and Impacts of PV-Battery Hybrids in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity Supply

In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (DOE 2021). We employ similar scenario definitions in the same ReEDS capacity expansion model, but we perform two versions of each scenario: one in which PV and battery technologies must be deployed separately (No Hybrids), and one in which the model has the option of deploying them together as PVB hybrids (With Hybrids). By comparing the No Hybrids and With Hybrids versions of each scenario, we isolate the impacts of hybridization on the outcomes and findings of the Solar Futures Study. We find that PVB hybrid configurations capture a sizable share of PV deployment, and the highest-net-value PVB hybrid configuration depends strongly on policy conditions. A power sector decarbonization policy generally increases the value proposition of a more forward-looking PVB hybrid configuration that involves significant oversizing of the PV arrays, a larger battery (which facilitates greater recovery and utilization of otherwise clipped energy), and a higher capacity factor. The growing deployment of PVB hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV capacity, such that total installed PV capacity is largely unaffected by the availability of PVB hybrid configurations. However, the higher capacity factors associated with PVB hybrid configurations drive a modest (1-2 percentage point) increase in PV's share of U.S. electricity supply in 2050. Finally, introducing the PVB hybrid configurations influences the future role and makeup of battery storage technologies, and it reduces the required transmission expansion, particularly under scenarios that involve a power sector decarbonization policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic and Cost Analysis for Winston-Salem, North Carolina

This study assesses the feasibility of solar installations at various sites in Winston-Salem, focusing on factors such as solar resource availability, electricity costs, and rooftop area for photovoltaic systems. The analysis begins by estimating daily energy requirements based on annual electricity use, followed by adjusting for seasonal and operational fluctuations. Using regional solar data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), we calculate average peak sun hours to determine effective system sizing. A parametric approach using the System Advisor Model (SAM) refines this sizing process, incorporating a safety margin of 1.2 to address demand peaks. Each PV system is designed to fit available rooftop space, and a coverage threshold of 70% is identified as optimal for maximizing cost savings and sustainability. This threshold allows installations to meet substantial energy demands, supporting energy resilience and enhancing economic returns.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mean-Corrected Recursive Estimation-Based Optimal DER Dispatch for Distribution System Voltage Control

Recent advances in smart inverters offer opportunities to mitigate adverse grid impacts caused by high penetrations of distributed photovoltaics (PV) in distribution grids, such as voltage violations. Here, this paper proposes a novel measurement-driven optimal power flow (OPF)-based distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) voltage regulation via recursive sensitivity estimation informed coordinated control of distributed PV inverters. The proposed approach leverages available grid and controllable DER measurements, eliminating reliance on system model information while being adaptive and robust to volatile operating conditions. A mean-corrected recursive ridge regression (MCRRR) algorithm is proposed for sensitivity estimation, continuously refining the sensitivity model through a closed-form solution. It effectively manages varying grid operating conditions, such as changes in power injections and topology reconfiguration, to facilitate a time-varying update of the Load Sensitivity Factors (LSF). The proposed approach is formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem and is thus scalable to larger-scale distribution systems. Its effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated on a realistic distribution feeder with high PV penetrations in Southern California, USA.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Determining circuit model parameters from operation data for PV system degradation analysis: $\mathrm{PVPRO}$

Physics-based circuit parameters like series and shunt resistance are essential to provide insights into the degradation status of photovoltaic (PV) arrays. However, calculating these parameters typically requires a full current-voltage characteristic (I-V curve), the acquisition of which involves specific measurement devices and costly methods. Thus, I-V curves of the PV system level are often not available. Here this paper proposes a methodology (PVPRO) to estimate these I-V curve parameters using only operation (string-level DC voltage and current) and weather data (irradiance and temperature). PVPRO first performs multi-stage data pre-processing to remove noisy data. Next, the time-series DC data are used to fit an equivalent circuit single-diode model (SDM) to estimate the circuit parameters by minimizing the differences between the measured and estimated values. In this way, the time evolutions of the SDM parameters are obtained. We evaluate PVPRO on synthetic datasets and find an excellent estimation of both SDM and the key I-V parameters (e.g., open-circuit voltage, short-circuit current, maximum power, etc.) with an average relative error of 0.55%. The performance, especially the extracted degradation rate of parameters, is robust to various measurement noises and the presence of faults. In addition, PVPRO is applied to a 271 kW PV field system. The relative error between the real and estimated operation voltage and current is less than 1%, suggesting that degradation trends are well captured. PVPRO represents a promising open-source tool to extract the time-series degradation trends of key PV parameters from routine operation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Do solar panels contain PFAS?

The presence and potential leaching of PFAS (Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances) from solar panels are increasingly mentioned in news articles, raising public concerns. Such concerns may slow the adoption of photovoltaic (PV) technology, despite its central role in the renewable energy sector. The limited transparency from manufacturers about fluorinated materials used in PV modules, along with the scarcity of publicly available testing data, contributes to uncertainty and speculation. This perspective aims to clarify the current state of PFAS presence in solar PV. Although certain fluoropolymers are used in PV manufacturing, the scientific consensus on their toxicity indicates they should not be classified as PFAS. Portraying fluoropolymers as toxic PFAS unnecessarily amplifies concerns and unfairly undermines the perceived environmental sustainability of PV technology.

environmental impact↗
NASA NTRS2019

Photogrammetry-Based Analysis of the On-Orbit Structural Dynamics of the Roll-Out Solar Array

The Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) flight experiment was launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on June 3rd, 2017. ROSA is an innovative, lightweight solar array with a flexible substrate that makes use of the stored strain energy in its composite structural members to provide deployment without the use of motors. This paper will discuss the results of various structural dynamics experiments conducted on the ISS during the weeks following launch. Data gathered from instrumentation on the solar array wing during the experiments was previously compared with pre-flight predictions from two different Finite Element Modeling (FEM) efforts. In this paper, data generated from photogrammetry is compared with accelerometer data and used to extend previous conclusions. Whereas previous analyses were only able to track the accelerations of six discrete points on the structure and photovoltaic (PV) blanket of ROSA, the photogrammetry analysis makes available displacements for dozens of points distributed throughout the array. This larger data set makes it possible to compare higher-order PV blanket modes with FEM predictions, in addition to verifying conclusions reached using accelerometer data. The goal in this effort was to better understand the performance of ROSA and to improve modeling efforts for future designs of similar solar arrays.

Chamberlain, Matthew K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimode Characterization Approach for Understanding Cell-Level PV Performance and Degradation

Cell-level degradation processes impact the economic viability and large-scale deployment prospects for both established and emerging photovoltaic (PV) technologies. This project addresses the need to develop experimental and device-modeling approaches for studying cell-level degradation processes in photovoltaic (PV) devices using a variety of characterization techniques that provide access to complementary material and device properties. Our results demonstrate that by coupling characterization results with device modeling it is possible to develop comprehensive understanding of processes leading to performance limitations and degradation. This project developed a suite of novel measurement techniques including pulsed-light-bias operando X-ray and photoelectron spectroscopy (popXPS), light-biased scanning microwave impedance microscopy (sMIM), and near-field transport imaging (TI). In addition, operando characterization methodologies and in situ stressing capabilities have been developed and applied for techniques including electron-beam-induced current (EBIC), cathodoluminescence (CL), and Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM). Device-physics models were developed and applied to simulate correlative, multi-mode measurements to extract material and device parameters that control performance degradation. These characterization and modeling techniques were applied in a multi-mode approach to probe cell-level degradation mechanisms in Cd(Se,Te) and hybrid perovskite PV devices. Together these efforts contribute to foundational PV degradation science by establishing a framework for understanding PV performance degradation at the cell level and benefit the U.S. PV industry by providing resources in the form of novel experimental capabilities, knowledge gained, and available expertise that can accelerate research and development of improved PV device materials and architectures. The project provided a comprehensive understanding of degradation in baseline Cd(Se,Te) solar cells provided by our collaborators at Colorado State University (CSU). EBIC and CL-based measurements and revealed unusual collection and recombination profiles in these devices, which underwent significant changes with during stressing. KPFM and operando XPS measurements showed that device stressing permanently alters energy-band alignments at the (Mg,Zn)O/Cd(Se,Te) interface, which in turn account for an observed loss in fill factor. Studies on hybrid perovskite devices were hampered to a significant extent by delays related to the pandemic. Nevertheless, a set of hybrid perovskite devices (supplied through an NREL-industry partnership) were stress tested and characterized with techniques including EBIC, sMIM, popXPS/popUPS and optically excited TI. Available results from these measurements informed the device modeling effort and suggest that defects and related band offsets at the C60/LiF/hybrid perovskite interface are the primary source of degradation in these devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗